Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

Well, with the only thing different now than it was before the fact that we know Oredigger was town, I don’t see any reason to change my approach. I still think Chronos and pedescribe look bad. I don’t see anything in the recent voting pattern to convince me otherwise, especially since the night was a total blank in terms of meaningful information in the short term.

I think at some point we should revisit Imaginary Fiend, as well, and not let that thread completely slip away.

Anyway, let’s get this party started.
Vote Chronos

[Meeko]

I figure this is worth a shot.

Mahaloth, will you elaborate on why there was no NK(s) ?

[Mahaloth]

@Meeko

Mahaloth, will you elaborate on why there was no NK(s) ?

No.

[Meeko]

@Mahaloth

No.

And I also figured that would be the answer.

[Meeko]

@Zeriel

Woohoo! At the very least, our vig is A) voluntary and B) paying attention to us. AND we either have a sharp doctor or a roleblocker who now knows who at least one scum is (assuming scum have to pick one, no redirector, offer void where prohibited, etc).

Good signs, folks.

How to expand on this is quite the WIFOM. Correct?

I mean, if all of the townies do the SAME exact thing tonight, what are we looking at then?

**
What does NOT voting today do for town? **

If scum change something up tonight, wouldn’t we be able to deduce it?

The way I see it, if we play this right, we as town can get some solid intel before Day 4 starts.

Then again:

1. I am still noobish
2. Regardless of what anyone else says, this IS WIFOM, or something similar.
3. I am Meeko. In terms of understanding me, YMMV. Double vowels in your name might help, but not necessary.

[cardinal_fang]

Checking in. Great news last Night! Very surprising as I was expecting the worst after the Night 1 disaster. 'Nuff said…

RL note: I will be offline for most of the weekend. I’ll catch up and weigh in when I get back.

[Meeko]

Not NETA [As it is a different thought] :

Overall, what did last night do for the game? That is to say, how good, exactly, in terms of math was it for town?

[Meeko]

I came across this, from MafiaScum.net :

“Saulus is a regular townie unless he is [sic] targetted by the mafia. If that happens, then the moderator would politely announce that nobody was killed during the night. From this point on, Saulus only wins if the mafia win. Until Converted, Saulus is pro-town.”

**
How likely is this, or a variant thereof, currently?
**
Is there some canon color for this, that I simply don’t know about?

[Chronos]

Overall, what did last night do for the game? That is to say, how good, exactly, in terms of math was it for town?

Assuming that what happened last night was that a kill was blocked (not anything like recruitment or the like): Before this Morning, it was presumed that we were at 9 Town, 4 Scum, and that 2 additional mislynches would leave us tied (with unknown consequences, but it probably wouldn’t be good), while 3 mislynches would finish us for sure. Now, it’s still presumed that we’re at 9 Town, 4 Scum, and 2 additional mislynches would leave us alive and kicking, but 3 mislynches will still finish us. This is presuming no further intervention by the power roles, of course: An incorrect Vig hit would put us right back where we were, and another kill-block or a correct Vig hit would mean we’d be tied even after 3 mislynches.

Of course, the downside is that we didn’t gain any new usable information, so most of the cases we’ll see toDay will likely just be continuations of what we already saw yesterDay. It’s still a good trade, of course.

As for the possibility of a recruitment, I think the most we can say is “we don’t know”. Some folks very strongly dislike having a recruitment mechanic in a game, and won’t put it in any games they mod, but this is Mahaloth’s first game as a moderator, so I don’t think it’s known what his feelings on the subject are.

[Meeko]

Checking In.

[Imaginary_Fiend]

Checking in here. It’s awesome that no one got NKd last night!

[Meeko]

My D&D Group is meeting today. I doubt I will miss that much [apparently] but, just to let you guys know, Don’t expect to hear from me from 10 am est untill late tonight (Sunday, 28.)

[Scuba_Ben]

My schedule is finally freed up, so I expect to be here quite a bit the next few evenings. Me showing up during the work day is still not to be counted on.

I think the most likely situation from overNight is a successful blocking of a kill. It doesn’t make sense for the Others to pass on a night kill on Night 2. As to how the kill was blocked – I decline to speculate. (In Cult of Sekhmet, excessive speculation led the Scum to identify the Oracle.)

Based on my wonderful ability to identify Townies as most likely to be Scum, I think we ought to focus on the runners up for the two lynchings. I think that’s IF and Chronos, but I always have to double check.

[Scuba_Ben]

NETA / after the window anyway:

Runners up:

#493, Imaginary Fiend; voters: [del]Tom Scud[/del], Telcontar, [del]Nanook[/del], Pedescribe, CardinalFang

#843, Chronos, voters: Jimmy Chitwood, CardinalFang, USCDiver, [del]Oredigger[/del]

There’s 13 players still alive. These two groups have among them 7 living players. And the two groups have only one player overlapping: CardinalFang.

For completeness, here’s the 6 players who aren’t involved in either of the runner-up votes:

AllWalker
Meeko
Scuba Ben
ShadowFacts
storyteller0910
Meeko

Also, Chronos voted for the lynching of Ichini Sanshigo on Day 1, and in self-defense for Oredigger on Day 2. IF voted for the one-off Tom Scud on Day 1, and for the one-off ShadowFacts on Day 2.

Now that I type all this up, IF’s two one-off votes, including one that wasn’t in self-defense when he (?) was a contender to get lynched, seems suspicious. Pending a review of IF’s votes and a discussion by IF of eir voting, for now I will
Vote Imaginary Fiend

(In Sekhmet, I overused FOS. So this game, I’m going to try to not use it, and put down actual votes. Your user preferences may vary.)

[ShadowFacts]

Damn, it’s quiet in here this weekend. I’ve got some time, so I wanted to take a look at my votee from yesterDay, Scuba Ben. Here is my case and vote post from yesterDay.

I’ve looked back at all of his posts for yesterDay, which was fairly easy since there are only a few of them.

He starts off with a vote for me. Telcontar questioned him about this vote, and he added some explanation here. In particular, he waffles with: “But for the most part, I just wanted to make sure I had some vote on record.”

I felt this was a bad vote (duh) and explained why. Scuba Ben quickly agreed with my criticism and backed off.

He then came back and voted for Zeriel, which is the post that garnered my vote yesterDay - see the link at the top of this post. USCDiver asked him to explain this vote better, and he admits that it is weak: “You’re right, the connection’s weak. It’s the best case I’ve got on anybody at the moment, and I’m aware that that’s not saying much. But it’s all I’ve got for now.” Are you seeing the pattern I’m seeing yet?

He had a couple other tiny posts, including this one where he again admits that his vote against Zeriel is weak and says he will do better toMorrow (i.e. toDay).

Finally, he unvoted Zeriel and voted for Oredigger to un-break the tie with Chronos near the end of the Day. This is not in itself suspicious - someone needed to break the tie - but in hindsight his reason looks bad: “I wish I could put together a reason for this, but all I have is that I had a bad feeling about him when I read the thread on Sunday. I don’t remember why I had a bad feeling about him, because it was early in the thread.”

His last post in the game defends himself against Meeko, then anticipates that he’s going to take some flak. I guess I’m providing the flak

What I’m seeing is someone who votes for others with little justification, then quickly backs off when called on it. Changing your mind when someone disagrees with you is not a bad thing - we all need to re-evaluate with an open mind in these games. But Scuba Ben seems to be laying low and avoiding controversy, and when he pokes his head out and gets called on, he quickly ducks back again. (Except he did put a spotlight on himself by breaking the Chronos/Oredigger tie, so that’s a point against my argument.) On the whole, though, it’s not an inspiring record, and enough for me to carry over my vote.

Vote Scuba Ben

(On preview: I see he has returned and made some posts while I was posting this. I have not read them and I have not considered them here).

[Chronos]

At this point, I know that I’m looking extremely suspect (even my own computer program suspects me), and I also know that I’m Town. I’m worried that not only will we lose another Townie with my lynch, but that it’ll be such an uncontroversial lynch that we won’t gain any worthwhile information from the voting. And any defense I put up should be made early enough that there’s time to discuss it. Therefore,

I am Michael Dawson. My role PM follows:

Lost Role PM
You are Michael Dawson

There was a terrible air plane crash.

You don’t remember a lot about the actual crash, but when you awoke, you were lost on an island. You have recently begun to socialize with the other survivors, but you don’t really know them all that well. You have a very strong feeling that some of the people with you are…evil, and may not have even been on the plane. You have no idea who they are, but you do know that you will not feel safe until they are dead.

You are a Survivor, this game’s version of Town.

I hope that’s a major enough character that people will believe that I really am Town, and not just a Scum using my alias. And I know that folks said that the character of Michael had some ambiguity, but it’s the only name I have.

This may or may not be enough to save me, but I hope it’s at least enough to make the voting more interesting.

[Chronos]

And of course in the time I write that up, two people who aren’t me get votes. Maybe I wasn’t as suspect as I thought, but I hope that that can still be of value.

[Mahaloth]

**Vote Count

Chronos(1): Jimmy Chitwood

Imaginary Fiend(1): ScubaBen

ScubaBen(1): ShadowFacts**

[Scuba_Ben]

I believe my vague feeling on Oredigger was this post from Day 1, bleached but not trimmed:

@Oredigger77

I was reading along this weekend and I just reread it all.

I don’t think that Pede’s slip was much of a slip he missed part of a conversation and then backed off when showed that. On the other hand Meeko did misquote a significant portion of Bill’s post. It seems like a weird bit to edit too, it’s just one line in the middle of a post. Now Meeko’s defense makes sense, well as much as Meeko can, in that he was asking why you would agree with someone and then vote for them but it doesn’t explain why he deleted that line.

It’s only Day one so I don’t expect there to be much to go on. I think if nothing else we need to send a clear message that misquoting is bad. If we have to go back a verify every quote it will take forever to make it through people’s arguments.

Vote Meeko

I don’t think there is much behind Jimmy telling Meeko that certain questions should not be asked in the game thread Personally I read it as telling him to find the mafia wiki or any of the other sites about the mechanics of the game.

I think that about covers the drama from the weekend.

I admit that my votes from Yesterday were willy-nilly. But that’s because for me, it was pretty much day 1. I also note my historical record of finding Scum on my own: 0 for 5 while playing and pretty darn bad while kibitzing.

ShadowFacts, I humbly request that the spotlight on me include posts by paulwhoisaghost, whom I replaced on Night 1. We are, after all, the same role. I don’t know whether we’re the same character.

And since I’m in the spotlight: (for the sunglasses and the heat)

On preview, I am mulling over Chronos’s character-claim. If I remember correctly, this now gives us two players claiming plain Town, one of whom was before the rule change.

[Chronos]

On preview, I am mulling over Chronos’s character-claim. If I remember correctly, this now gives us two players claiming plain Town, one of whom was before the rule change.

Imaginary Fiend and I both pasted our role PMs, both after the rule change. Meeko claimed before the rule change, but didn’t paste his full role PM, and might not necessarily be vanilla.