Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath

[Meeko]

@storyteller0910

Yup. I mean, it’s all well and good to coast from Day to Day shouting at one another, but it is usually instructive, once a bit of information has come out about alignments of various participants, to look more closely at how we got to the places we got.

As I understand it, storyteller, you want us to turn Day 2 thinking on it’s head, and work from the bottom up. That is, find ways to confirm alignment, instead of if your name matches a given list? We should confirm that someone is town, instead of confirming that “my name is on this list”. Do I have this correct?

This would make sense, given the current complaint that USCDiver has against you, with flashback characters. I was under the assumption that any character was ““fair game”” to be in the Mafia game. It would seem that you believe this as well. Is this correct?

[Chronos]

Update on my code: I’ve found a very bad error in it. When I updated it from the previous game, I neglected to update the number of players in one of the loops. Where the code I posted before had

    for(i=0;i<8;i++) {
      if(players* == 1) n_scum++;	/* Count the number of Scum */
    }

it should say

    for(i=0;i<13;i++) {
      if(players* == 1) n_scum++;	/* Count the number of Scum */
    }

The net effect of this error was to increase everyone’s scores, but especially those of Zeriel, ShadowFacts, Jimmy Chitwood, storyteller, and cardinal_fang. I have now fixed this mistake. Ignore all previous output I posted from my program, as it is completely incorrect.

In addition, I have made further refinements to my method. Previously, I was making an assumption as to how much Scum were voting for other Scum, and discarding any cases which did not match that pre-set assumption. I am now instead, in each case, counting how many times Town voted for Scum, and comparing that number (relatively speaking) to the number of times that Scum voted for Scum. In other words, I assume that the average Townie was more likely to have voted for Scum than the average Scum was. This not only removes the need for one of my assumptions, but also allows a way for my program to listen to the suspicions of the genuine Town, whomever they may be. I believe that this means that the results are now not only less subjective, but more accurate.

With this change, I have also removed the counting of “un-buses”, where a Scum votes for another Scum’s rival, to save a teammate, as I believe that this information is included in the information about Town’s voting patterns.

I have also restructured the main loop of the program. Whereas before it cycled through all of the possibilities through the use of 13 nested loops, it now uses a single loop on a single integer, with each bit of the integer representing a player. Theoretically, this shouldn’t make any difference to the running of the program, but it’ll make it easier to adapt to other games in the future, and also appears to have fixed the bug with Telcontar’s name.

Here’s the new and improved program:

[noparse]#include  <stdio.h>
#define n_players 13	/* Number of players under analysis */
#define max_scum 4	/* Maximum expected number of Scum */
#define min_scum 4	/* Minimum expected number of Scum */
#define town_votes 21	/* Number of Town votes cast so far */
#define scum_votes 8	/* Number of Scum votes cast so far */

main()
{
  int players[n_players];	/* Stores the alignment of each player.  0 = Town, 1 = Scum */
  unsigned int players_binary;
  unsigned int players_binary_shifting;
  char names[n_players][20] = {"Telcontar", "AllWalker", "Chronos", "Imaginary Fiend", "Meeko", "USCDiver", "pedescribe", "Scuba Ben", "Zeriel", "ShadowFacts", "Jimmy Chitwood", "storyteller", "cardinal_fang"};
  int n_scum;
  int buses;		/* Number of times Scum voted for Scum */
  int attacks;		/* Number of times Town voted for Scum */
  int i;
  int score[n_players];
  int total_scenarios = 0;
  for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) score* = 0;			/* Initialize everyone's score */

  for(players_binary=0; players_binary < 8192; players_binary++) {
    players_binary_shifting = players_binary;
    for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
      players* = players_binary_shifting & 1;		/* Populate the players[] array according to the value of players_binary */
      players_binary_shifting = players_binary_shifting >> 1;
    }

    n_scum = 0;
    buses = 0;
    attacks = 0;
    for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
      if(players* == 1) n_scum++;	/* Count the number of Scum */
    }

/* Count number of buses-- Only counting final votes */
    if(players[0] && players[3]) buses++;	// Telcontar voted for Fiend 
    if(players[3] && players[9]) buses++;	// Fiend voted for ShadowFacts 
    if(players[4] && players[5]) buses++;	// Meeko voted for BillMC/USCDiver 
    if(players[4] && players[12]) buses++;	// Meeko voted for cardinal_fang 
    if(players[5] && players[4]) buses++;	// USCDiver voted for Meeko
    if(players[5] && players[2]) buses++;	// USCDiver voted for Chronos 
    if(players[6] && players[3]) buses++;	// pede voted for Fiend 
    if(players[8] && players[1]) buses++;	// Zeriel voted for AllWalker 
    if(players[9] && players[7]) buses++;	// ShadowFacts voted for Scuba_Ben 
    if(players[10] && players[6]) buses++;	// Jimmy Chitwood voted for pede 
    if(players[10] && players[2]) buses++;	// Jimmy Chitwood voted for Chronos 
    if(players[12] && players[3]) buses++;	// cardinal_fang voted for Fiend 
    if(players[12] && players[2]) buses++;	// cardinal_fang voted for Chronos 

/* Count number of attacks-- End of day */

    if(!players[0] && players[3]) attacks++;	// Telcontar voted for Fiend 
    if(!players[3] && players[9]) attacks++;	// Fiend voted for ShadowFacts 
    if(!players[4] && players[5]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted for BillMC/USCDiver 
    if(!players[4] && players[12]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted for cardinal_fang 
    if(!players[5] && players[4]) attacks++;	// USCDiver voted for Meeko
    if(!players[5] && players[2]) attacks++;	// USCDiver voted for Chronos 
    if(!players[6] && players[3]) attacks++;	// pede voted for Fiend 
    if(!players[8] && players[1]) attacks++;	// Zeriel voted for AllWalker 
    if(!players[9] && players[7]) attacks++;	// ShadowFacts voted for Scuba_Ben 
    if(!players[10] && players[6]) attacks++;	// Jimmy Chitwood voted for pede 
    if(!players[10] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Jimmy Chitwood voted for Chronos 
    if(!players[12] && players[3]) attacks++;	// cardinal_fang voted for Fiend 
    if(!players[12] && players[2]) attacks++;	// cardinal_fang voted for Chronos 

    if(players[3]) attacks += 2;		// Tom Scud and Nanook (known Town) voted Fiend
    if(players[11]) attacks++;			// Ichini (known Town) voted storyteller
    if(players[2]) attacks++;			// Oredigger (known Town) voted Chronos
/* Count number of buses-- Withdrawn votes */
/*    if(players[0] && players[6]) buses++;	// Telcontar voted for pede 
    if(players[1] && players[4]) buses++;	// AllWalker voted for Meeko 
    if(players[2] && players[3]) buses++;	// Chronos voted for Fiend 
    if(players[4] && players[6]) buses++;	// Meeko voted for pede 
    if(players[4] && players[10]) buses++;	// Meeko voted for Jimmy 
    if(players[4] && players[3]) buses++;	// Meeko voted for Fiend 
    if(players[5] && players[1]) buses++;	// USCDiver voted for AllWalker 
    if(players[6] && players[2]) buses++;	// pede voted for Chronos 
    if(players[6] && players[4]) buses++;	// pede voted for Meeko
    if(players[7] && players[9]) buses++;	// Scuba voted for Shadowfacts 
    if(players[7] && players[8]) buses++;	// Scuba voted for Zeriel 
    if(players[9] && players[0]) buses++;	// Shadow voted for Telcontar 
    if(players[10] && players[3]) buses++;	// Jimmy voted for Fiend 
    if(players[11] && players[2]) buses++;	// storyteller voted for Chronos 
    if(players[12] && players[6]) buses++;	// cardinal_fang voted for pede 
*/
/* Count number of attacks-- Withdrawn votes */
/*    if(!players[0] && players[6]) attacks++;	// Telcontar voted for pede 
    if(!players[1] && players[4]) attacks++;	// AllWalker voted for Meeko 
    if(!players[2] && players[3]) attacks++;	// Chronos voted for Fiend 
    if(!players[4] && players[6]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted for pede 
    if(!players[4] && players[10]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted for Jimmy 
    if(!players[4] && players[3]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted for Fiend 
    if(!players[5] && players[1]) attacks++;	// USCDiver voted for AllWalker 
    if(!players[6] && players[2]) attacks++;	// pede voted for Chronos 
    if(!players[6] && players[4]) attacks++;	// pede voted for Meeko
    if(!players[7] && players[9]) attacks++;	// Scuba voted for Shadowfacts 
    if(!players[7] && players[8]) attacks++;	// Scuba voted for Zeriel 
    if(!players[9] && players[0]) attacks++;	// Shadow voted for Telcontar 
    if(!players[10] && players[3]) attacks++;	// Jimmy voted for Fiend 
    if(!players[11] && players[2]) attacks++;	// storyteller voted for Chronos 
    if(!players[12] && players[6]) attacks++;	// cardinal_fang voted for pede 

    if(players[4]) attacks += 2;		// Tom Scud and Oredigger (known Town) voted Meeko
*/
/* Count number of un-buses-- Voting to save a fellow Scum */
    if(players[0] && players[2]) buses--;	// Telcontar saved Chronos 
    if(players[1] && players[3]) buses--;	// AllWalker saved  Fiend 
    if(players[1] && players[2]) buses--;	// AllWalker saved Chronos 
    if(players[2] && players[3]) buses--;	// Chronos saved Fiend 
    if(players[6] && players[2]) buses--;	// pede saved Chronos 
    if(players[7] && players[2]) buses--;	// Scuba_Ben saved Chronos 
    if(players[8] && players[3]) buses--;	// Zeriel saved Fiend 
    if(players[9] && players[3]) buses--;	// ShadowFacts saved Fiend 
    if(players[11] && players[3]) buses--;	// storyteller saved Fiend 
    if(players[11] && players[2]) buses--;	// storyteller saved Chronos 
    if((min_scum<=n_scum) && (n_scum<=max_scum))	/* Throw out cases with wrong number of Scum */
    if(attacks*scum_votes > buses*town_votes)		/* Throw out cases with Scum not voting Scummily */

/* Add other assumptions (delete or add any considered appropriate) */
    if(players[2] == 0) 		/* Assume Chronos Town */
    if(players[4] == 0) 	/* Assume Meeko Town */
			{
      total_scenarios++;

/* Output all scenarios */
      for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
        if(players* == 0) printf("%s",names*);
        if(players* == 1) { 
          printf("%s",names*);
          score*++;
        }
      }
      printf("
");
    }
  }
  
/* Output scores */
  fprintf(stderr,"Total number of possibilities:  %d
",total_scenarios);
  for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) fprintf(stderr,"%s	%d
",names*,score*);

  return(0);
}[/noparse]

And the results:

[spoiler]
Using only day-end votes, and without assuming I’m Town:
Total number of possibilities: 398
Telcontar 134
AllWalker 129
Chronos 156
Imaginary Fiend 148
Meeko 0
USCDiver 139
pedescribe 116
Scuba Ben 129
Zeriel 122
ShadowFacts 125
Jimmy Chitwood 112
storyteller 148
cardinal_fang 134

Using only day-end votes, and with the assumption that I’m Town:
Total number of possibilities: 242
Telcontar 89
AllWalker 84
Chronos 0
Imaginary Fiend 103
Meeko 0
USCDiver 100
pedescribe 73
Scuba Ben 84
Zeriel 80
ShadowFacts 83
Jimmy Chitwood 74
storyteller 103
cardinal_fang 95

Using all votes, without the assumption that I’m Town:
Total number of possibilities: 433
Telcontar 138
AllWalker 147
Chronos 163
Imaginary Fiend 160
Meeko 0
USCDiver 148
pedescribe 138
Scuba Ben 128
Zeriel 141
ShadowFacts 133
Jimmy Chitwood 141
storyteller 154
cardinal_fang 141

Using all votes, and with the assumption that I’m Town:
Total number of possibilities: 270
Telcontar 93
AllWalker 102
Chronos 0
Imaginary Fiend 115
Meeko 0
USCDiver 104
pedescribe 94
Scuba Ben 83
Zeriel 96
ShadowFacts 88
Jimmy Chitwood 98
storyteller 109
cardinal_fang 98
[/spoiler]The biggest thing I notice about these results is that, under them, there is very little variation in scores. I still show up as the most suspicious, followed by Imaginary Fiend and storyteller, but the results no longer identify any single player as being more than 50% likely to be Scum. This may change as more data come in (I’ll update it after Dusk toNight), but in the mean time, I’m backing away from making any decisions based on this program. And since this program encapsulates my analysis of the votes, I’m also backing away from suspicion based on the voting patterns so far.

[storyteller0910]

@USCDiver

I think it would be detrimental to the Town to use your list as some kind of yard stick against which all claims are made.

I agree, which is why it is certainly a good thing I never suggested doing this.

What if there was a character from one of the later seasons who is clearly Town aligned according to the canon of the show? Does that player automatically come under suspicion because s/he doesn’t fall on you list?

Not necessarily. Frankly, I don’t know, because I don’t know what the distribution of roles is. If we knew how many players in the game would claim “major characters” - however that is defined - we might know better where to go from there. I certainly would never suggest reflexively lynching someone because their name is not on the list.

In the end, I just don’t see how coercing the players to commit to being on an arbitrary list or not helps us out?

Well, pro-Town players have absolutely no reason to lie about whether they are on my list, right? Zero. No downside.

But the Scum might need to lie. I don’t know for sure; I can’t know for sure. But they might. Having the name of a minor character will never be a reason for lynching, no. But it will be a data point, and one that will help guide our collective investigation. Bottom line: by answering this survey, the Scum will either have to provide us true information about themselves - which can only help us - or they will have to lie. And if they lie, they open up an avenue by which they can be caught.

In the end, it only works if every player says they are on the list because in that instance it forces the scum to use one of the names on the list if/when they claim and run the risk of being counter-claimed. But what if they’re Mod-given alias DOES fall on the list? Then we’ve falsely confirmed them.

Again, I totally agree that exclusively using the list to confirm or lynch someone would be incredibly stupid and short-sighted. It should be a tool, one that we use to supplement analysis and provide a framework for understanding the structure of the game.

I think we can probably assume from the lack of consensus from other players confirming their place on the list, that there are a significant number of players who are NOT on the list and don’t want to risk being falsely accused of being scum.

I don’t think we can assume any such thing. In fact, I think that’s a very, very bad assumption.

[storyteller0910]

@Meeko

As I understand it, storyteller, you want us to turn Day 2 thinking on it’s head, and work from the bottom up. That is, find ways to confirm alignment, instead of if your name matches a given list? We should confirm that someone is town, instead of confirming that “my name is on this list”. Do I have this correct?

This would make sense, given the current complaint that USCDiver has against you, with flashback characters. I was under the assumption that any character was ““fair game”” to be in the Mafia game. It would seem that you believe this as well. Is this correct?

No. I think we should be following every possible angle. There is no reason that asking “are you on list X?” should preclude more “mafia-esque” analysis. There’s no reason that these approaches can’t be used in conjunction, and to good effect.

Every character is probably fair game. But given that a name claim would have been game-breaking before Mahaloth changed the game, we can guess some things about the likely distribution of names at baseline. We have also heard: that names hew relatively closely to canon alignments. Some names are more likely than others, and some are almost certain to be Town.

(And remember: confirming Town is more powerful than catching Scum. If a name claim or related action even semi-confirmed five or six Townies, it would be game-breakingly powerful even if there are question marks remaining).

[Chronos]

(And remember: confirming Town is more powerful than catching Scum. If a name claim or related action even semi-confirmed five or six Townies, it would be game-breakingly powerful even if there are question marks remaining).

Except that there’s no reason to confirm a bunch of Townies at once, as quickly as possible. There is no benefit to Town for a Townie to be confirmed until that Townie is under suspicion for some reason, but there is a benefit to Scum for the confirmations to be made as soon as possible, because the sooner folks are confirmed as Town, the sooner the Scum can start preferentially targeting confirmed folks.

I think I’m on the edge of the portion of the list that can be confirmed by name-claiming: I don’t know if my claim is strong enough for people to trust. I claimed because I really am at risk of getting lynched. But there’s no reason for, say, Jin Kwon or Jack Shephard to claim yet, because whoever they are, they’re not at risk of lynching yet.

[Zeriel]

Yikes, Chronos. That’s ridiculous.

Except that there’s no reason to confirm a bunch of Townies at once, as quickly as possible. There is no benefit to Town for a Townie to be confirmed until that Townie is under suspicion for some reason, but there is a benefit to Scum for the confirmations to be made as soon as possible, because the sooner folks are confirmed as Town, the sooner the Scum can start preferentially targeting confirmed folks.

No, no. All wrong. More confirmed Town give Scum a larger pool of completely identical targets that are only marginally more valuable than unconfirmed town. More to the point–the more confirmed Town there are, the massively higher our likelihood of catching scum from the smaller unconfirmed pool is.

vote Chronos for ridiculously anti-town thinking.

[Telcontar]

@Jimmy_Chitwood

This is a sad-sack state of affairs.

Chronos, you’re scum!
Allwalker, everything you do is the most obvious anti-town strategy ever employed! Everyone knows you have a scum power role!
Meeko, shut the hell up, and post more!
pedescribe, how come you kept sticking up for Chronos while going after confirmed Town players, and then clammed up?
Telcontar, why are you playing so passively?
Chitwood, are you town?

Because I’m moving into a new apartment and don’t have internet there yet :-P. With luck i’ll have verizon fios by nightfall. At the moment i’m posting from my office before running back to my old place to pack more. If you’d seen the size of the furniture I’ve moved in compared to the size of the stair case I’ve moved up, you’d just be happy I was alive :).

So, as I’ve said in previous postings I’m suspicious of story. He’s ended up as the last/possibly decisive vote in two town lynches (which could be chance) and he still has us arguing about the name claim. As I think Meeko of all people may have suggested (sorry if I have the name wrong), now that the scum have power roles there’s a decent chance that they’re no longer afraid of the name claim and are using the debate over it as a distraction from the real issues. Lacking something better, i’m going to tentatively vote for story.

vote storyteller

As I said before, i really don’t want to be responsible for the next townie lynch, and I don’t have any brilliant insights today. I’ll read over again tonight, assuming that Fios comes. Pray to the Gods of High Speed Internet for me.

[ShadowFacts]

I agree completely with you, Zeriel. That’s amazingly anti-Town thinking. Chronos, can you explain yourself more?

[storyteller0910]

@Telcontar

So, as I’ve said in previous postings I’m suspicious of story. He’s ended up as the last/possibly decisive vote in two town lynches (which could be chance) and he still has us arguing about the name claim. As I think Meeko of all people may have suggested (sorry if I have the name wrong), now that the scum have power roles there’s a decent chance that they’re no longer afraid of the name claim and are using the debate over it as a distraction from the real issues.

Just for the record, and not only because it’s directed at me, the above is bullshit. I have continued to discuss the name claim because others have continued asking about it and responding to me.

But in the meanwhile, I’ve also posted as much substantive, non-name-claim content as anyone in the game so far toDay.

But OK, I’ll bite, Telecontar. If the things I have discussed so far on Day Three are not “the real issues,” are just distractions from “the real issues,” then what are the real issues?

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

That’s a fair question, considering that if it wasn’t for lousy discussion, we’d have literally none at this point. I think it’s hard to fault story for his commentary being on a particular subject when he’s more or less the only one offering any subjects for discussion.

I hear you on the internet, though, Telcontar. I’ll light a candle on my Fios box.

[Meeko]

@Telcontar

Snipped like all get out.

Bleached

[]vote storyteller[]

As I said before, i really don’t want to be responsible for the next townie lynch, and I don’t have any brilliant insights today. I’ll read over again tonight, assuming that Fios comes. Pray to the Gods of High Speed Internet for me.

Telcontar:
Youre getting Fios? that’s like the phone cable and DSL internet all in one, right? For like 94 bucks? Thats awesome, I bet youre pace in this game will improve. You wont have to listen to that annoying dial-up sound anymore. Thats fantastic for you, man!

But, whats unfantastic, is youre vote. I think you are wrong on youre vote, but Im not going to waste time here arguing it. I can only hope my reasoning is right here. I’m Meeko Noob and all of that, so YMMV with my comments, but, suffice to say, I have a ““gut feeling”” that youre way off base here.

Chronos:

I’m also concerned for you. Youve got a lot of people looking at you. I begin to wonder if my feelings for you belong in a mafia game, or out. Im not sure if you are town. Then again, Im put off by the game as well right now. It started off with a flurry of energy, and it just died off. I wanted to limit my posting, but I am already more than twice ahead of the next guy (which, I believe is you, Chronos). I doubt anyone can tell me an average level of play.

I just hate having to vote today, because when it comes to actually voting for someone, Im not currently being pinged.

[Meeko]

@Jimmy_Chitwood

That’s a fair question, considering that if it wasn’t for lousy discussion, we’d have literally none at this point. I think it’s hard to fault story for his commentary being on a particular subject when he’s more or less the only one offering any subjects for discussion.

Jimmy, youre saying that Storyteller isnt pinging you either, correct?

We agree on something!? :eek:

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

I’m saying what you quoted. No subtext, no insinuation, no grand design.

[Meeko]

@Scuba_Ben

There’s 13 players still alive. These two groups have among them 7 living players. And the two groups have only one player overlapping: CardinalFang.

Scuba Ben said this about voting and votes for the runner up.

Is it possible that Cardinal fang is just a false positive, and is actually [no offense Cardinal] a clueless townie? I mean, given our numbers, still, on Day 3, aren’t we going to have townies that become victims of circumstance?

Again, I hope that I can get around to deciding who TO vote for today, but, as of right now, I can’t vote for Cardinal.

Then again, if you can rule out who to vote for, you will end up voting for someone, right? Is this logic sound?

[Meeko]

Vote USCDiver

If we are all offering votes on a “”“tenative”"" basis, I am going to have to bring back BillMC’s motives to vote me. I knew I was town, and I’m betting that Bill/USCD knows it as well, with, or without my claim.

[Mahaloth]

**Vote Count

Chronos(3): Jimmy Chitwood, USCDiver, Zeriel

ScubaBen(1): ShadowFacts

Storyteller(1): Telcontar

USCDiver(1): Meeko
**

[USCDiver]

@Meeko

Vote USCDiver

If we are all offering votes on a “”“tenative”"" basis, I am going to have to bring back BillMC’s motives to vote me. I knew I was town, and I’m betting that Bill/USCD knows it as well, with, or without my claim.

This is utter nonsense and has no basis in logic. The original BillMC/USCDiver voted for you early on in Day 1 for as good a reason as any. And then he never came back after you claimed Town. You left what was essentially an OMGUS vote on him until the end of the Day despite several other more scummy players.

And then you voted for cardinal_fang on Day 2, so clearly you though he was more suspicious than me yesterday, and yet you’ve said nothing else about cardinal_fang today but suddenly I’m more suspicious than him?

If you’re going to change your mind like that, you better have more evidence than something a previous incarnation did in the beginning of Day 1.

[USCDiver]

NETA: ouch, run-on sentence there!

[Scuba_Ben]

I am very interested in hearing from Zeriel, Meeko, and ShadowFacts each why they were around in the last hour of yesterDay and did not change their one-off votes.

Jimmy, that self-argument was moderately annoying; we can argue amongst ourselves enough without having to argue with ourselves. Was it anti-Town?

I see that cardinal_fang last posted in #966, saying he was away from computer for the weekend. He hasn’t been back to respond to my question in #982, so I’ll ask directly: cardinal_fang, you are the only person to vote to lynch both runners-up. Why did you vote this way?

[Chronos]

Quoth Zeriel:

No, no. All wrong. More confirmed Town give Scum a larger pool of completely identical targets that are only marginally more valuable than unconfirmed town. More to the point–the more confirmed Town there are, the massively higher our likelihood of catching scum from the smaller unconfirmed pool is.

And giving Scum a larger pool of targets is somehow better than giving them no targets? As for catching Scum in the unconfirmed pool, we still get that benefit if the confirmable Townies wait to claim until it’s necessary: If we end up on one of the confirmable folks, then that person can claim, and we’d shift to someone else. The net effect is that whomever we lynch will be one of the folks who wouldn’t be confirmed by a name-claim, same as if they all claimed.

I suppose you can make a case that once one person is thus forced to claim, that’s when the others should, too, but we’re apparently not at that point yet. I’ve claimed, but people don’t seem to be believing me. And voting for someone who’s claimed a relatively major name kind of weakens the argument that we can confirm people by name-claims in the first place, doesn’t it?