On Meeko: Eh, I don’t trust vanilla claims, even name claims, under the best of circumstances (which admittedly, this was pretty close to that). The Vig claim, if un-counterclaimed, is not only far more unimpeachable (well, unless he’s actually a PFK SK or a scum strongman with one extra nightkill or something equally ludicrous and unsupported by the kill pattern) but it will hopefully will give our (potential but likely, given the kill-free night the other Day) doc or blocker something to work with when playing chicken with the scum.
As for AllWalker, well, I just realized I’d missed almost a page of discussion yesterday in which most of what I just spent an hour researching was already researched by other people. At this point I’m comfortable with a “confirmed” pool of you, story, and Meeko.
I was going to rant about how AllWalker leaving me off his “there’s a scum in this group” list (and subsequently ignoring my snark based on that) was potentially a clear crumb on me, except that I couldn’t find anywhere that I unambiguously said I was town on Day One (just a few times when I referenced Super Mario Mafia as “My only non-town role”), and I can’t imagine AllWalker would waste a detection on something like that when there were so many clear statements of pro-town-hood to test.
I think there are two possible reasons why AllWalker thought you were Town:
He used his Lie Detect power on you and got a result that you were telling the truth (presumably about your “I am Town” statement).
or
He had a read on you and thought you were playing like a Townie.
It could have been either of those, and until we know for sure which it is, you are not “confirmed” in my mind. It’s too subjective. If you think #2 is unlikely, if you want I can pull up all the times I (and others) have said that we had a Town read on Meeko this whole game (just to use one example).
Look, if you asked me straight up, I would guess that based on all the evidence that you quoted upthread, #1 is more likely. I might even go so far as to say that you are “probably” Town. But you are not confirmed, and I think it is a big mistake to treat you as such. And no matter how much you repeat that you are confirmed, I won’t. If you think that makes me suspicious, so be it. I think it makes me a cautious player who won’t be manipulated by a player’s statements about himself.
I am inclined to believe Meeko’s Vig claim, even if that does mean he fibbed earlier about being an ordinary survivor. The Vig roles makes sense with the Sawyer character, and I think it was probably pro-Town to remain hidden early. Vig can be very powerful for us in the later game. I’m not quite sure why he decided to claim right now, but that’s his choice. The question is: do we try to direct a kill or let him decide for himself if and on whom to use it? I incline toward letting power roles do their own thing, but we should probably at least discuss it in the event someone has a good idea.
You gotta admit, Shadow, the pattern of **AllWalker’s **“far more likely to be town” statements (just **Chronos **on Day 1, **Chronos **and **Storyteller **on Day 2) is pretty suggestive. The phrasing is different/obvious enough that it’s a potential crumb in retrospect. In fact, one wonders if that’s why scum tagged him. They certainly tagged the Oracle etc with less to go on in Sekham.
Given our stunning lack of scum-hunting success so far, I’d say we should at least TRY to start creating a confirmed (realistically, until **story **has some success, semi-confirmed) pool and one of the ways to do that is by examining **AllWalker **for crumbs. If nothing else, it gives **Meeko **some guidance on who to shoot at and when it might be wise to start–since I’m on record as letting power roles do their own thing as much as possible.
Actually, he never claimed to be ordinary, so there’s not even a fib there. He just sort of let everyone assume that.
And I agree that it’s his call on when and how to use his bullets. I just wanted to make sure he’d considered the possibility of a bloodbath night, if it was possible.
Wow, it’s been quiet today. I was hoping for a major uptick in activity with the end of the weekend, but it seems that life has other plans.
Just to put myself on record:
I’m willing to accept **Chronos **as innocent, story as cop, and **meeko **as vigilante. On one level I’m beginning to wonder a bit about Shadow for arguing against this, but that’s almost too obvious a play for the mafia; I think that’s townie being confused and ornery. My top suspicions are pedescribe (my current vote choice) and scuba ben.
Meeko, what are your thoughts going forward? One possibility:
Almost regardless of the number of mafia, an extra vigilante kill will cost us a lynch possibility given an odd number of players (given 5 mafia we are at LYLO now, 4 mafia tomorrow, 3 mafia the next day). However, if we modkill pedescribe for inactivity and you shoot tonight then we can remove two players from the unconfirmed pool. Does that make sense?
I’m going to say** mod kill pedescribe** in part because I think he’s mafia and him dropping off the mb gives us a free chance to get rid of him, and in part because it helps shrink the unconfirmed pool by freeing meeko to shoot tonight.
Leaving my vote on him in case people don’t agree with the mod kill.
I was thinking of this post, where he claimed: “You are James “Sawyer” Ford(usually called Sawyer). You are a Survivor, this game’s version of Town.” There is a strong implication that he is ordinary IMO, but you’re right that he left it open. My memory did the rest
I have said as much more than once. It is suggestive. It is indicative. What I’ve been arguing is that it is not conclusive. I don’t understand why anyone would think that is controversial.
And FTR, based on Chronos’ summary of** AllWalker’s **posts, there are several examples of positive comments regarding Chronos, but only one about storyteller. The evidence of breadcrumbs is much more for Chronos than for storyteller and should not be equated.
I should probably stop arguing about this, since apparently all it’s doing is making myself look bad. But, dammit, I’m right!
Mod kill pedescribe If we can kill enough of the unconfirmed folks (er, sorry, ShadowFacts, enough of the people without evidence for their innocence), we’re bound to hit Scum.
If we get pede modkilled, who’s our best target for the lynch? My preference would be someone from AllWalker’s list, since I think that’s a better tell than anything I’ve dug up, but I’m open for suggestions.
And I would strongly suggest that anyone who can confirm themselves (such as the Doctor) claim toDay or toNight. If Meeko decides toNight is the best time to go shooting (as it may be; now that he’s declared his power, he’s an appealing target for the Scum), we don’t want him to kill any more Townies than can be reasonably avoided.
That allwalker, a confirmed townie, found him suspicious is reassuring to me. I also didn’t like the late day vote switching that saved him; that chaos could have hid a lot.
I also have two requests to mod kill Pedescribe, from Chronos and Telcontar. With 11 people alive, I really need 6-7 request to modkill him, or he can remain alive and in the game.**
Yeah, I’ve just been rereading. Mostly I think that the dogged pursuit of Chronos over what seems to me to be a somewhat trifling distinction (that is, the difference between Chronos calling himself confirmed and Chronos being confirmed enough that we probably need to begin with an assumption that others are better targets) by ShadowFacts was a little extreme, which could go either way as you noted.
From that perspective, though Zeriel showing up and 1. arguing that the evidence that AllWalker trusted Chronos isn’t that strong (which he followed up with a “never mind” and a “you’ve gotta admit,” which I thought read as kind of forced) and 2. saying that he was
struck me as, on the whole, coming at the problem backwards. It doesn’t seem very pro-town to me that the first instinct there was to see whether AllWalker’s death could clearZeriel; I’d expect that the first reaction to finding out (as an ignorant Townie) that AllWalker was the lie detector would be to go back and see which other players he had breadcrumbed, not to try to build a case to establish that he breadcrumbed myself. Because, you know, what does a Townie who isn’t under much suspicion really care about bolstering his own defense? What is it worth to a Town player to be able to make an argument that he isn’t scum? And conversely, how valuable to scum is it, and how natural would the urge be, to have a lie detector apparently come out in support of your bona fides?
Rereading all the way back, though, it’s not clear to me whether Zeriel’s response is unfairly reflecting poorly on what ShadowFacts was trying to say, or what.
What I mean here is that I think it’s a very scummy inclination to take the death of a Town investigator and immediately attempt to build a (specious) defense of one’s self by hunting through the investigator’s posts for something that the investigator had said about one. I don’t think a town player would have the motivation to do that.
**
I take this to mean “Meeko sure has learned alot since Crimson.” :D**
But, seriously, when I claimed, we were only talking about Name Claims. When I Saw that we were going to Name and Role, I was mobile, and wanted to make sure we were not going to spend the fourth changing the game, given that it was a holiday.
And also, I am not going to disclose the second half of the Role PM, because I know that I will not get everyone asking me to. I may not know who the Scum are, but, if we still have town out there, I doubt they would have wanted me to reveal the number of bullets I have left. Hence why I stated
I needed the time to get home to my PC where I could get to my PMs. The Ipod Touch is great, but, it is limited. But, I do have cut and paste now for it.
Only after I stated I was responsible for Scud, did I realize that this also stops scum from saying that they are a Town Vig, “And to prove it, I shot Tom Scud cause of X Y Z”.
You are the Chicken Noodle Soup chef. Each night you may prepare Chicken Noodle soup for one player. If that player has the flu, he or she is cured from it at Dawn.
Naah.
Sorry, I was reading a “Worst roles in Mafia” thread yesterday. It had some interesting ideas. Not all together Politically Correct, but still intereting mechanics.
Jimmy: I’ve occasionally posted stupid stuff because I missed a page of posts so, in that vein, I’m inclined to think that Zeriel was probably just out of it (flu can do that). he retracted pretty quickly, which makes me feel that it was just a confused townie mistake. He is also contrary by nature :-P. Worth keeping an eye on though.
As for shadow, yes his argument with chronos looks pretty scummy. But it also looks kind of…bizarre, really can’t imagine why a scum would go down that road (why drastically increase your visibility to make such a weak case?). If the scum were playing like that we’d have killed one by now. i’m going to give him a careful reread Tonight though. He’s undergone a big change in the last Day and one possibility is that he’s a scum who was laying low and has now scented victory.
How many mafia do we think there are? If 5, then we should really be freaking out now. I think 4 is much more likely, which would imply that Tomorrow is the drop dead day.
