So what did you receive the first night? Did you get a vague PM indicating that your power failed for some reason? If the result was different nights 2 and 3 than it was on night 1, why didn’t you say so?
We seem to have this set-up:
Paranoid Doc
Limited-ammo Vigilante
Detective
Lie Detector
Scum-side Blocker (possibly full blocking)
How many ordinary Scum would be needed to make the sides even?
I hear what you’re saying. And I understand the logic behind keeping the vote on Shadow. What I’m concerned with is this: pedescribe voted and then unvoted Shadow, saying that Shadow wouldn’t have known he was protected unless he was. If that’s true, then either they’re both town or they’re both scum, right? If it isn’t true, then pedescribe is lying.
So if we basically know that pedescribe is town, don’t we have to trust what he’s saying about the protection message?
And if pedescribe isn’t telling the truth (and has been playing a scummy game all game long), then doesn’t Shadow look, at least, less scummy than pedescribe does? I mean, if they’re both scum, pedescribe is scum. If pedescribe is credible, Shadow shouldn’t be scum. So if the driving force behind the whole analysis is what pedescribe says, isn’t there a problem with going after Shadow for his response?
Jesus, I don’t know. It’s late enough that it might not even matter, but
unvote ShadowFacts
so I can go think for a minute on the crapper.
Three, very approximately.
I received two PMs. I posted the first one: it just said I asked the island and the island did not respond. I also received a second PM with the blah blah about feeling protected. I had no way of knowing whether the protection and the failure of my power were connected. I certainly wasn’t going to reveal that there was a Doc, or that he had targeted me. Why the hell would I have done that?
Jimmy, think about this. For ped and I to BOTH be lying, it would require: (1) the game to have only two power roles, a Lie Detector and a Vig; and (2) for ped and I [and Shadow], in a game we were winning definitively, to decide to go out on a limb and guess that there was no Doctor, no Detective, and invent a conspiracy starting on Day One that, if it unravels, would unseat all three of us. Good grief, man, if I were Scum, I would never agree to such a needlessly complex and silly plan with so little upside.
Day Two (I’m counting myself, Meeko, and pedescribe as Town here. I know some of you disagree, but I believe it to be true and it’s my damn analysis; if you don’t like it, do your own):
We lead off with a lot of random discussion, but the first vote is of IMAGINARY FIEND by PEDESCRIBE. CHRONOS also votes FIEND, for voting TOM SCUD and for the suspicious shift toward ICHINI and away from FIEND at the end of the previous Day (which we now know to be from Town to Town). MEEKO votes for FIEND here, too.
TELECONTAR votes OREDIGGER, basically on the grounds that OREDIGGER was one of the votes that swung the lynch Day One, and spent most of the Day sitting on Meeko (I’d like to add here, by the way, that if USCDIVER is Town, then my Day One hypothesis – that at least one Scum would vote for Meeko – has been proven utterly false. I don’t have much of a read on USCDIVER at all, frankly).
SCUBA_BEN votes for SHADOWFACTS, for putting ICHINI into a tie for the lynch Day One.
TELECONTAR posts at #650, reproducing the list from the end of Day One:
Ichini(6): Chronos, Zeriel, AllWalker, Oredigger, ShadowFacts, Storyteller
Imaginary Fiend(5): Tom Scud, Telcontar, Nanook, Pedescribe, CardinalFang
Tom Scud(1): Imaginary Fiend
BillMC(1): Meeko
Meeko(1): BillMC (USCDiver)
Pedescribe(1): Jimmy Chitwood
Storyteller(1): Ichini
A quick observation here. We have three unknowns on the ICHINI train, and two on the FIEND train, with two unknowns scattered among the one-off voters. In my purely subjective opinion – worth very little, as my record in this game will show – the Scum would probably have spread out a bit in a situation like this (Day One, trying to get a feel for how the game would develop, possibly not even allowed to talk during the Day). I hypothesize that we will find at least one Scum voting for ICHINI, at least one for FIEND, and at least one for someone outside the main action. Not perhaps the most stunning proposition, but I note that it means at least one of USCDiver or Jimmy Chitwood would be Scum in such a case.
SCUBA_BEN makes a vote for ZERIEL, on the grounds that the latter felt ICHINI and TELECONTAR were better prospects for Scum than MEEKO or PEDESCRIBE (ZERIEL’s reasoning was that ICHINI and TELECONTAR had done things that were “tangible Scum tells” and MEEKO and PEDSCRIBE were providing null content). I observe only that ZERIEL was right about MEEKO and PEDESCRIBE. We don’t know if he was right about TELECONTAR.
ZERIEL responds with a vote for ALLWALKER on the grounds that the latter left him off a suspicion list.
Some of what follows centers around ALLWALKER’s list – the intersection of players who refused/failed to claim that their name and alignment matched and those who contributed to the last-minute vote switch. The players are:
Zeriel
Jimmy Chitwood
ShadowFacts
Storyteller
Hm.
JIMMY votes for CHRONOS, at #683, and looking back I can’t say I disagree with his reasoning. That, coupled with CHRONOS’ insistence on claiming a degree of confirmation he has not achieved, makes me abruptly somewhat suspicious of CHRONOS.
MEEKO votes OREDIGGER. So does PEDESCRIBE. FIEND makes an interesting post and vote for SHADOWFACTS at #696, basically noting that SHADOW makes a point of saying his late switch from FIEND to ICHINI will look especially bad if FIEND is Scum, thus implicitly disavowing that suspicion is warranted if FIEND is Town.
DIVER votes for ALLWALKER at #702, but not before saying:
This kind of post always raises my hackles a bit, but especially so when the two players in question both turned out to be Town. Making a point of mentioning that you don’t like cases is (obviously) a way of distancing yourself from those cases, and from the mislynches they eventually turned into. Especially useful as Scum.
CARDINAL_FANG assaults CHRONOS and votes for him. I also vote for CHRONOS at #729, as I perceive him to have based a (mild) attack on me on faulty premises (or, rather, on premises that he had no way of knowing were (or were not) correct if he were Town.
Thus, at post #730, 12:17PM, the vote count was:
Oredigger(3): Telcontar, Meeko, Pedescribe
Chronos(3):Jimmy Chitwood, CardinalFang, Storyteller
AllWalker(2): Zeriel, USCDiver
Imaginary Fiend(1): Chronos
Zeriel(1): ScubaBen
ShadowFacts(1): Imaginary Fiend
Here’s something to note: our Scum were BUSY this Day, and early. All seven of our current unknowns had a vote in by this point. Why? In his case against Chronos, CARDINAL_FANG observes that Chronos’ behavior might make sense if he (Chronos) were a Town power role. Perhaps the Scum – whether FANG is included or not – picked up on this too, and decided to launch early pressure on Chronos to see if they could force a claim? But if so, why not just kill Chronos the previous Night? Doesn’t hold water, but it is clear here that the Scum got busy early on Day Two, anyway.
More in a separate post.
He did say so. Post 1072:
And what’s the big deal about “Shadow wouldn’t have known about the protection unless he was protected”? We already know he was protected, since pede says that he protected him. Being protected doesn’t prove that he was Town.
MEEKO unvotes DIGGER, shortly thereafter voting CARDINALFANG. I can’t really tell why.
DIVER moves from ALLWALKER to CHRONOS. PEDESCRIBE moves from DIGGER to FIEND. I can’t for the life of me figure out how we wound up lynching DIGGER. Let’s see.
SHADOW votes for SCUBA_BEN.
PEDESCRIBE, in here, presents his definitive statement that I, FIEND, DIGGER, and CARDINAL are all Scum.
I unvote CHRONOS. ALLWALKER votes OREDIGGER. PEDESCRIBE returns to DIGGER, with no explanation. SCUBA_BEN breaks the tie and votes for DIGGER. I vote for OREDIGGER, based on analysis of Day One.
DIGGER votes CHRONOS. CHRONOS piles on DIGGER.
DIGGER dies.
Shit, this was a weird Day. Lots of early pressure on CHRONOS, turning into a bandwagon on OREDIGGER containing me, pedescribe, AllWalker (Town) and SCUBA_BEN, CHRONOS, and TELECONTAR.
The Scum have played very well here. Usually I can see patterns, but here, once again, who the fuck knows? Was CHRONOS Scum, and the gradual shift to OREDIGGER gently encouraged by the Scum? Was he TOWN, and we had on Day Two a repeat of Day One? I just can’t tell. We need more identities confirmed in the worst way.
Overall, I feel as follows regarding the unknowns:
SHADOWFACTS: Leaning Scum
USCDIVER: Leaning Scum
CARDINALFANG: Leaning Scum, but only because I just can’t fucking tell, he hasn’t posted enough.
SCUBA_BEN: Leaning modestly Town
JIMMY CHITWOOD: Leaning modestly Town
TELECONTAR: No read
ZERIEL: No read
CHRONOS: Every read at once, but damn if he doesn’t worry me.
So the Day ends in thirty-four minutes. If we’re right about ShadowFacts we will have some real information in the Night, so that’s good. If we’re wrong, we’re in deep shit and will probably face lynch-or-lose toMorrow. I will not comment on what I plan to do toNight in either case; I strongly urge pedescribe and Meeko to be similarly reserved.
Well this is good to know. You are Paranoid Doc?
Now that this is official Pede, I will say it again:
DO NOT BLOCK ME TONIGHT.
That’s all true. And yet here we are. And all I capital-letter-Know is that I ain’t scum, and that every voting day a whole stream of garbage comes flying at me from multiple sources, and we keep killing those what also ain’t scum.
Problem is, it’s a lot easier to make sense of pedescribe if you’re also lying. Maybe you’re not - I haven’t voted for you.
And, of course, it isn’t good enough to say, well X scenario is too complicated, Y scenario is too complicated. I’m looking for an affirmative, credible case that somebody is scum. That seems to be lacking at the moment, save for some kind of elaborate conspiracy of the sort you’re describing, OR save for the kind of stunningly bad fucking luck of the sort I described earlier.
But all right, I don’t want to vote at the literal last second. I’m just going to vote for the scummiest I can see and figure out what it means later.
Vote pedescribe
Throw in the Role “If Anyone accuses you of being scum, the accusing person becomes Scum” thing that we mentioned earlier, and well, I think we just might have something. :eek:
But again, Give the above “power” to me, and well, the game just might end on Night 0.
Then Again, I have read that Magic The Gathering can end on Turn 0, so we might not be too far off here.
**So why did you ever stop doing it ? **
Seriously.
And, I’m still curious, can you protect yourself, Pede?
I appreciate your corrections (and you’re right about them). Story, my apologies for my misrepresenting your posting that PM.
The big deal, to me, is pedescribe’s posts 1426 and 1427 and his explanation of what was going on. I’m trying to make sense of pedescribe’s attitude toward ShadowFacts.
Er, keep reading, Meeko. Like one more post.
I have no read on Telcontar, USCDiver, or Zeriel, and dang-it-all if that don’t worry me. What if the Town has been fighting amongst itself so much that the Scum have had to do nothing but lie low? I’ll be out of town all weekend; who would like to do a Wall of Words on each of these people?
I greatly fear we’ve made a mistake on Shadow. But I have no reason to vote for anybody else, and I am very likely to be called away for real stuff off and on in the next 20 minutes.
Jimmy, I don’t think that pede is making the best plays, either, but the fact remains that there was no Scum-kill Night 2, and pede’s claimed role is the only explanation anyone has offered for that. If pede is Scum, then we’re forced to the conclusion that Scum deliberately gave up their Night-kill just to set up some elaborate gambit that they couldn’t have known if it would even work, and I can’t see any gambit being worth that.
I believe he is town, based on AllWalker’s (multiple) posts.
What is the current Opinion on a Scum Roleblocker in the game?
I just wanted to make sure I knew what you were saying here.