Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath

Speaking of which, I just noticed that I got a PM:

Which either means that pede thought I was Town, and that the Scum might target me, or that he thought I was Scum, and that I might be doing something nefarious on behalf of the Scum. Either way, it didn’t work.

Of all the people in the “likely confirmed innocent” category (you, story, pedescribe, and meeko) you’re the only one without a night power. if I’d been him I’d probably have taken my role block and gone scum hunting, but protecting you makes sense too.

So, that’s both roleblocks accounted for. Meeko, what’s up? You’re worrying me a bit here.

My best guess is that Meeko only ever had one single bullet, and didn’t say so because he wanted Scum to target him with something. Meeko, if this is the case, you might as well just say so: With pede gone, the Scum are going to block you toNight anyway, and then block-and-kill you toMorrow.

Vote Chronos

Perhaps most importantly, if pede blocktected you, it means you are neither the role blocker nor the player who executed the Scum kill last Night. Doesn’t eliminate the possibility that you were inactive Scum, but you definitely belong on the back burner for now.

Anyway, I’m not sure what to make of what happened last Night. I am incredibly frustrated to see that Meeko (evidently) didn’t attempt a kill. At this point, our power roles are worthless. ToNight the Scum will kill one of us and block the other; the following Night they will block and kill whichever of us lives through toNight. The only exception is if we get exceedingly lucky and not only lynch Scum toDay, but specifically lynch the role-blocker.

We will have to find Scum the old-fashioned way, and our record so far has not been good in that area. Seven unknowns remain: of those I am unlikely to vote for Chronos toDay. So: six little Indians, Scum hiding somewhere. Where?

Something no one else knows, however, is that you have a gun….and it has one bullet in it.

Powers:

  1. You are a Gun Owner.
  2. You get one Nighttime Kill total, for the entire game. You may PM me when you decide to use it.

You are a Survivor, this game’s version of Town.

Meeko, will you just freaking explain yourself already? What happened? Were you blocktected by pedescribe?

Unvote Chronos

And I would vote myself if I could.

Scum, I will be reading your board. I bet the list I posted did me in, Did it ?

Meeko, why did you vote for Chronos?

What “did you in?” You’re not dead and we aren’t going to lynch you toDay. Just be annoyed that you lied and move on.

Ok. Ok.

Let’s reassess now.

I am willing to bet that we have other gun owners.

If so, Now would be a good time to use it, You think?

Personally, my theory is “Meeko is deranged”, story.

I can totally buy the “I had one bullet, and I used it on night one” thing from him, though.

What lie was that, again?

And hey, as far as I know, you should blame Pede. Stupid gamble that HE took. Nevermind mine.

With pede gone, I can FINALLY hopefully get a damn answer to a question:

Could Pede have protected himself?

And, frankly, by my Math, we are no worse off today, than we were yesterday.

I obviously can’t guess what Scum are doing. ** We could be a LOT worse off today. **

Indeed, let’s reassess, because now we know the basic structure of the game:

TOWN:
Detective - 4 pts
Lie Dectector - 3.5 pts (generous)
Paranoid Doctor - 2.5 pts (being generous)
One-Shot Vig - 1.5 pts

TOTAL PTS from power roles = 11.5

Four Scum means nine vanillas, for a total of 20.5 pts.

Four Scum, including three ordinary Scum (3 x 4.5 pts = 13.5 pts) and one roleblocker (6 pts) comes out to 19.5 points. Replace one of those vanillas with a Godfather (7 pts) and the Scum go up to 22 pts. Either arrangement is possible. Five Scum is right now as it would be grossly imbalanced, and three Scum would be grossly imbalanced the other way.

Best conclusion: We have three Scum remaining, one roleblocker included, with possibly one Godfather but it doesn’t matter at this point either way. Our chances of getting one toDay are slightly less than 50%, if we pursue only the unknowns.

Where shall we start?

FTR: I recieved no PM last night at all.

What the fuck?

This was the gambit exactly. The Vig taking a bullet for town. The One shot Vig, quasi vanilla, becomming the magnet for all of scum.

Story would have gotten his read,

Peded would have protected himself.

Scum would have shot a Vanilla.

The town would be no worse off, thanks to the Scum lynch the day before.

Jimmy, I never shot you. I couldn’t.

Hrm.

Chronos… I am willing to bet that Pede believes you to be town. He probably thought I would have shot you.

So, he stupidly protected you, over himself. [Still waiting on my answer gang.]