Mafia: Baker Street [Game in progress]

[septimus]

@Idle_Thoughts

I’m SORRY, okay? I didn’t mean to come off sounding so rude or harsh. I apologize to you sincerely …

OK. Apology accepted. I’ll admit I start skimming when I see comments becoming useless, redundant or both.

If p% of dogs are spotted and we have a clue that q% of target dogs are spotted, the chance a spotted dog is a target may be more or less than “random.” Any inference will be very vague, especially since we don’t know the values of p nor q, nor even whether our clue is true. To deduce that voting you randomly might be slightly better than using random.org was, even if true, intended as a joke. If Day 1 joke/random votes are a Lynchable offense, you need to get more votes downn.

Some months ago on the Ungulate’s Board I deduced who the Scum Godfather was (Hi, Pizza!) but made the mistake of mentioning “probability” in my argument. So they Lynched me instead. I still play Mafia but now avoid big words like “probability” except when joking.

[gnarlycharlie]

@Chronos

OK, this is mostly going to be in response to Pizza, just because he’s done a lot of talking:

Vanilla claims are far safer for Scum than power claims are. Anyone who claims a power role first of all risks a counterclaim, and second must account for how they’re using their powers. Both of those are always risky. Claiming vanilla is only risky if you’re doing something active and there’s either a tracker in the game or a very lucky watcher.

i subscribe to this. the risk of counterclaim is greater.

@DaphneBlack

Fine, Astral, but I think you are mistaken about the accuracy of the third vote tell. But you are right, you will stand or fall on the votes you make, and you have given a reason, even if I don’t like it.

I really would like to know what is ‘unnatural’ about asking direct questions.

Mahaloth, I update my question to you: what is your current stance on the revealing of clues? It is not clear to me, nor to others, I think.

In other areas of discussion, I conclude it is very likely based on the preponderance of the evidence that scum have cover roles. I don’t think that makes a vanilla claim inherently less believable though. We have no reason to assume cover roles will be vanilla, or otherwise.

the third vote tell is not reliable at all. as town, i’ve been the third vote several times and so have many others.

@TexCat

The clues so far:
Chronos: CLUE: James Moriarty, the Scum leader, can lose his Godfather status under some conditions. 91
Dizzy: CLUE: Scum players have all been given complete, detailed false identities, including clues. 118
Gnarly: CLUE: All ties are resolved via random.org. 186
Septimus: CLUE: One Scum player, a woman, has a power that targets protective roles. If her target is protected, the player doing the protecting will die. 187
Pizza: CLUE: A man named Langdale Pike is in possession of false information that should be ignored. 210

How are these clues helpful to Town, even if true? Chronos’ clue is helpful to Town because we learn that M is a Godfather. It is more helpful to M, in that he learns he might lose that status. Dizzy’s clue is helpful, but we might have deduced it. Gnarly’s clue is entirely unhelpful. We didn’t know how ties resolved before, and all this tells us is that they are resolved randomly. Not any better than not knowing. Besides we know ties are bad, and in a multi-vote game they are easier to resolve. Septimus uses his clue as an excuse to vote Idle. Pizza’s might be useful if we knew who Langdale Pike is.

I would vote Septimus out of this bunch, but I already have.
vote: Gnarly
for risking helping scum while not helping town at all

if i’m scum, how am i risking helping myself? that makes no sense.

@Scathach

You know what, I missed this on first read (sorry, I admit to skimming), but gnarlycharlie’s clue is the same one as I have. Which I guess means it’s less likely to be false, although I am surprised that that’s the lynch resolution method.

careful, you might get voted for that. i initially thought that meant you were scum but i realized that doesn’t matter. with a large number of players duplication of clues isn’t implausible.

@TexCat

I’m not sure why Septimus felt compelled to make a new number to discuss Astral’s first one. If skimming were a scum tell…

I continue to think that revealing clues is a bad thing. I’ve already voted Gnarly for revealing his clue. It’s definitely odd that they are both the same clue. I think it more likely that one is a scum cover clue.
vote: Scathach

…and there it is. so we are both scum? still makes no sense.

@Darth_Sensitive

See, I don’t think it would be unfair for the mod to give a townie a clue, then include the same clue in a scum cover role. Story warned that revealing clues might disadvantage the side that revealed them. I think this may be exactly what story was talking about when mentioning bad results for revealing clues.

Possible scenarios:

Townie reveals random.org first
[ul]
[li]Disadvantage town: Scum with this clue in cover role has time to come up with new clue to reveal later - it seems less likely to me that this happened - why find your cover clue is a dupe then still reveal it?[/li][/ul]

Scum reveals random.org first
[ul]
[li]Disadvantage scum: Blunders into fact that clues are duplicated, the townie has no reason to keep their clue hidden - this one feels more likely[/li][/ul]

It seems unlikely to me that both of you would get the same clue and be town. I find it much more likely that one of you is scum. If I only got one vote, I would

Vote gnarlycharlie

But since I get multiple votes, I will also

Vote Scathach

you’re making the same argument as Texcat. so we’re both scum. this is using the shotgun approach. why are you minimizing the chances we’re both town?

did i see someone say that clues may be duplicated? i forget.

@Silver_Jan

Do people really think that as a scum team** gnarly** and **scathach **would post the same clue? Seriously? Scum usually have time to talk and ordanise things. I think that if they both posted the same clue that would be very poor play from scum.

don’t bother. it’s possible scum would do anything no matter how stupid it may seem. :rolleyes:

vote Texcat
vote Darth Sensitive

seems it doesn’t matter to these two whoever is lynched between **Scathach **and me.

[storyteller0910]

How about a vote count?

As before, if you note errors, please feel free to point them out. They may or may not be errors, but I’ll check each one carefully.

---

Texcat - 5 votes - Scathach (290), septimus (310), Silver Jan (318), dizzymrslizzy (343), gnarlycharly (362)

Silver Jan - 4 votes - Astral Rejection (190), Askthepizzaguy (211), Captain Klutz (240), Texcat (316)

Astral Rejection - 4 votes - wevets (177), Daphne Black (225), Chronos (237), Rysto (340)

septimus - 3 votes - DaphneBlack (220), Texcat (258), Idle Thoughts (303)

Mahaloth - 2 votes - Chronos (104), sinjin (149)

Askthepizzaguy - 2 votes - sinjin (149), Chronos (237)

sinjin - 2 votes - Askthepizzaguy (151), Dizzymrslizzy (274)

Idle Thoughts - 2 votes - wevets (177), septimus (310)

DaphneBlack - 2 votes - Askthpizzaguy (211), Inner Stickler (224)

gnarlycharly - 2 votes - Texcat (260), Darth Sensitive (296)

scathach - 2 votes - Texcat (285), Darth Sensitive (296)

Inner Stickler - 1 vote - wevets (177)

Chronos - 1 vote - wevets (177)

dizzymrslizzy - 1 vote - Silver Jan (309)

Darth Sensitive - 1 vote - gnarlycharly (362)

---

Day One to end at 12:00PM Eastern time on Wednesday, February 19.

[Inner_Stickler]

Unvote DaphneBlack

Vote ATPG

It’s not much but I don’t like the fact that he called out the unusual Day setup in post 81 and then appeared to forget there’s no night twice later on.

[Dizzymrslizzy]

@DaphneBlack

Questions:
Dizzy: any thoughts on the vote(s) on you?

Nope not going to stress about one singular vote. Jan and I always spar, it’s just the way it is Can’t get excited over her finding me scummy because she always does.

[LightFoot]

eek
so I have finally read this all once

sorry for the delay in returning to check in

** Pizza ** I read your clue and thoughts on it and I am still uncertain what your stance is on said player revealing theirs. it seems you said you encourage the reveal and then you don’t?

I was all for the lynch of DB until her claim ( not that it is etched in stone at this point) but backing off is prudent at this time.

• I am at work but I will add my thoughts as the boss man’s absence allows *

[Rysto]

@Astral_Rejection

You know, I left off the whole point about what the numbers meant. Basically what I’m getting at is, my case on anybody on Day 1 is gonna be weak, and so I don’t feel too worried about contradictory cases this early in the Day. On Tuesday, you can be sure I’ll have narrowed down who I want dead the most. Besides, I told you which one felt scummier to me, so you had a good idea which case I felt stronger towards at the time.

Well that’s very convenient, as it allowed you to keep a vote on two of the leading bandwagons.

You may not be all worried about where you’re placing your votes, but I’m very interested myself.

[TexCat]

**unvote: Gnarly
unvote: Scathach
unvote: SilverJan **
In order to concentrate my efforts on Septimus.

@septimus

I’ve read the thread but have no suspicions yet. I agree that Mahaloth’s proposal seems anti-Town, but I don’t think a Scum would place his head on the chopping block like that. I’m more suspicious of those repeating the obvious pro-Town advice for each player to judge a reveal himself.

@TexCat

What if our clues help identify us to scum? For example, perhaps a scum clue looks like: Sherlock’s clue talks about false identities. Or, Dr. Watson’s clue talks about a Godfather. I would suggest that everyone keeps their clue secret unless it is strictly helpful to town in some way, not merely if it looks benign.

I doubt if Storyteller is sadistic enough to use pro-Scum meta-clues like that. The post almost pings me.

My own clue, if true, is something Scum probably knows already. Revealing it would introduce layers of Wifom, which might benefit Scum, especially if it is actually false. I may reveal it Day 2 or 3, but I see no urgency.

This post continues to bother me. First Septimus announces that he has no suspicions and immediately proceeds to tell us who he is suspicious of, and smudges me. He feels no urgency to reveal his, but what does he do in his next post?

@septimus

I’ll guess we have some power that reveals player’s names, and that the Clue that Scum have cover identities is false, only Moriarty and perhaps Holmes having covers.

It just seems to me that it would be inelegant and anti-Game to have clues like “The player with a clue about Monica’s dress is Head of the FBI.” I suppose there might be a single Scum clue like that to add spice, but it would be dastardly to have a hidden mechanism to make clue reveals generally bad. (Even vanilla’s revealing would be bad with such a mechanism, helping Scum eliminate.)

Clues might have internal evidence about their holder. My own clue might lead to an inference about a power I do or do not have.

BTW, the main reason I didn’t blurt my own clue is that it might lead to levels of second-guessing (“wifom”) with Scum having the advantage since they know whether or not the clue is true. However there is a game-theoretic argument for discounting that: Each player can ignore my clue, pretending I never revealed it. In that case revealing it did no harm! Of course, players could consider the clue if, on balance, they judge it worth any risk. Therefore, I’ll just reveal now:

CLUE: One Scum player, a woman, has a power that targets protective roles. If her target is protected, the player doing the protecting will die.

Assuming the clue is true, we do have a female Scum, … but so far only one revealed female. This makes my vote easy:
Vote: Idle Thoughts

Just (half-)kidding.
[del]Unvote: Idle Thoughts[/del]

@septimus

(But mine is a weakish Day 1 vote.)

This is where it really starts to look like Septimus is scum. He continues to downplay the danger of scum. He doesn’t think that they have cover roles, (although we have a clue that says that they do, and storyteller has typically provided cover roles in his games). He doesn’t think that scum have clues about our clues, although sinjin has provided past evidence of a storyteller game where that was true. In general, he is saying that we shouldn’t worry about scum, they are no big risk.

I am going to ignore that the metaphysical crap about clues that exist but don’t exist because we can ignore them. WTF?

And then he tells us his clue. And for what purpose? So that he can make a wishy-washy vote on Idle? It looks like he is already preparing to jettison this vote if it causes him any heat.

@septimus

Unvote: Idle Thoughts

I like Pizza’s case:
Vote: DaphneBlack

Chronos is pinging me slightly by being overly “helpful”, but I think that’s his style.

A bandwagon vote, pure and simple. No explanation of why he likes Pizza’s case. And a smudge of Chronos, just in case this post didn’t look scummy enough.

@septimus

I think prior experience of Players is very important. … For example, I suspect Mahaloth when he seems Townie, since I always get scum vibes from him when he’s Scum. :smack:
Anyway, for now I’ll follow my policy of delaying any early Lynch of a claimed Power.

Unvote: DaphneBlack

Texcat is playing much more aggressively than usual. I don’t know if that is a scum tell or a town tell for her, but
Vote: TexCat

My first vote on Idle was a joke/random vote: his character’s gender made him slightly more likely to be Scum than the output of random.org would be. But he reacted by flailing wildly, first “forgetting” his gender and then smudging me.
Vote: Idle Thoughts

No one, Scum or Town, would post the very same clue as another already posted unless it was truly their clue. This seems so obvious, I’ll be scrutinizing the posts of those who pretend to think otherwise.

I have no idea about what the sentence about Mahaloth that I italicized says. Is it a joke of some sort?

Septimus thinks I am being aggressive, but doesn’t know whether that means I’m town or scum. And yet votes me anyway. Looks like he just doesn’t like aggressive players. That does seem like a scum tell.

[TexCat]

Dizzy,
I see that you have come back and answered a question from Daphne, but did not respond to the Huh? that I had for your vote. Can you explain your vote, please? I have nothing to slip. What slip are you talking about?

[Silver_Jan]

@TexCat

Dizzy,
I see that you have come back and answered a question from Daphne, but did not respond to the Huh? that I had for your vote. Can you explain your vote, please? I have nothing to slip. What slip are you talking about?

I actually thought I had caught you in a slip but after another read I hadn’t really. It was when you mentioned that Scum had double clues and I wondered why you would say that but it’s right there on page 2 that scum have been given clues as well. My mistake.

Unvote Texcat

[Chronos]

Some folks have mentioned that there’s a tendency to lynch the loud, so I thought I’d go through and see if there’s anyone who’s been lurking to avoid attention. From what I can see, there are seven players who haven’t yet gotten any votes (in order that they appear on the player list): Johnny Bravo, Wevets, DiggitCamara, Rysto, Lightfoot,Captain Klutz, and Pleonast. Of those:

Johnny Bravo is one of the more prolific posters in the thread, and his posts appear to have substance. He’s chiming in on major topics, voting, and giving reasons for his votes. He passes.

wevets has had only six posts since PMs were sent out: Receipt of PM, a little discussion of clues, a bunch of player analyses and votes, a short reply concerning that post, an explanation of a vote by sinjin, and [url=“http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=17104146#post17104146”]a minor NETA to that. I like the big long post analyzing players, but it was early enough to go largely unnoticed, and he hasn’t posted anything meaty since then.

DiggitCamara has also posted only six times since the PMs went out: Confirming his PM, some general theory talk about random votes and clues, More on clues, finding sinjin’s reactions to look townish, votes Daphne (whose wagon was gaining steam) for vague reasons, and then unvoting Daphne after her claim. Very little here, but there’s something.

And I note that he does actually have a couple of votes on him, from Johnny Bravo and Daphne, neither of which I noticed unvoting.

Rysto is off to a slow start, but he said before hand that he was going to be busy off the board, and he does at least have one vote and some back-and-forth concerning it. Pass for now, but I’d really like to see more from him.

Lightfoot has only two posts so far: A very belated check-in, and a no time to catch up post. Not good, but it probably is actually due to not noticing, and so wouldn’t reflect on her alignment.

Captain Klutz has 11 posts since the game started, but honestly, I can’t see anything of substance in them, and he hasn’t even voted. This is very, very bad.

And I thought at first that Pleonast hadn’t checked in at all, which is a problem for the mod, not for us. But he did actually check in, so he knows the game has started, but hasn’t posted since then. Now, Pleonast is another player (like Idle who tends to claim immediately, which (as mentioned) is problematic for a Scum. Maybe he decided that the way to avoid claiming was just to not post?

I’m going to
Vote Captain Klutz
Vote Pleonast
for their lack of participation.

[Chronos]

OK, Silver Jan, that post is just weird. The way I see it, you voted TexCat for a reason that had nothing to do with a slip, then TexCat made the post that I’m assuming is the putative slip, then Dizzy voted TexCat for that putative slip, then TexCat asks Dizzy about that vote, and then you respond to that by apologizing that it’s not a slip after all and unvoting?

[septimus]

@TexCat

… First Septimus announces that he has no suspicions and immediately proceeds to tell us who he is suspicious of, and smudges me. He feels no urgency to reveal his, but what does he do in his next post?

…
This is where it really starts to look like Septimus is scum. He continues to downplay the danger of scum…
I am going to ignore that the metaphysical crap about clues that exist but don’t exist because we can ignore them. WTF?

And then he tells us his clue. And for what purpose? So that he can make a wishy-washy vote on Idle? It looks like he is already preparing to jettison this vote if it causes him any heat.
A bandwagon vote, pure and simple. No explanation of why he likes Pizza’s case. And a smudge of Chronos, just in case this post didn’t look scummy enough.

[QUOTE=Septimus]
*For example, I suspect Mahaloth when he seems Townie, since I always get scum vibes from him when he’s [del]Scum[/del] Town. :smack: *

I have no idea about what the sentence about Mahaloth that I italicized says. Is it a joke of some sort?

[/QUOTE]

The confusing quote about Mahaloth was a typo – I’ve corrected it above to show my intent. The “smudge” of Chronos wasn’t a smudge at all, just explaining that different players have different styles and what would be a scum tell for one, isn’t for another. BTW, Chronos specifically said that he could see why I was reluctant to post my clue. And I’ll guess he understood the “metaphysical crap about clues that exist but … we can ignore them” even if others didn’t.

All in all, I’m happy to keep my vote on you because I know you’re over-reaching on your case against me.

At the same time, I can see that some of your charges may “ring true” and I’m likely to be Lynched soon. Little loss for Town: I’m just Vanilla and am playing badly.

When I’m Scum I try to post seldom and cautiously. I’ll have to adopt that when I’m Town as well; when I’m being candid and writing “naturally” I tend to be unclear or even whimsical.

Sorry, Town.

[Inner_Stickler]

:dubious:

If you are VT, stop with the woe is me shtick. Scum won’t murder VTs unless they’re hot on a trail. If you are a VT and you don’t want to ‘play’ anymore, do your damnedest to intimate you’ve got an action. Otherwise you force town to waste a mislynch on you which is annoying.

[DaphneBlack]

septimus, I don’t even think you are in the lead right now. Your sad resignation is all very well, but what do you think about the other vote leaders? I see you’re voting for Texcat, do you mind articulating why again? What do you think of the cases on Astral and Silver Jan? What do you think about Diggit?

I’m not changing my votes right now but I’m willing to listen. I’d mildly prefer a Diggit lynch at the moment.

O Glorious Mod, are the votes for Diggit invalid for some reason or just missing?

[LightFoot]

I get tangled up quoting on this board and since I’ve missed 8 pages I am just going to reference post numbers as I catch up
I have some things for you but first
** Vote: Pleo **
I didn’t realize he was even in the game until it was mentioned by Chronos- and as I have always found his habit of claiming early ( no matter the role) very annoying- the absence of that action screams suspect to me.

** JohnnyB ** when you said your clue was potentially dangerous and could result in a lynching- were you concerned about your own safety, or the good of Town?
** DarthS ** my clue also is irrelevant until names are claimed ( or can be discovered)- and I think someone else made reference to that possibility
Having said that if true or false it is information that I think could be used by Scum ( so I will sit tight until / if it is useful to Town )
** JohnnyB ** are claiming Vanilla #189 – where you state that ** Idle’s ** claim matches your PM and then vote him for it?

Re: ** Chronos’ ** clue- I don’t see how it benefits Scum- ** Pizza ** can you elaborate on your comment #202 for me?
** DarthS ** post #296
You state that you think it more likely that the first person to get a duplicated clue would be Scum- then you vote both of them ( you are riding the fence )

I am suspect of ** Texcat ** – can’t quite put my finger on it- but D1 wagons generally net Town players so I will stay out of that mix
** Vote JohnnyB **

it won’t get him lynched today but I want to go on record with a suspicion that stems from reading his posts/tone - also his concern that his clue might get him lynched- but no comment on if the clue would benefit Town.

[Darth_Sensitive]

@gnarlycharlie

you’re making the same argument as Texcat. so we’re both scum. this is using the shotgun approach. why are you minimizing the chances we’re both town?

If you had actually read my post instead of OMGUSing all over the place, I think that you might have found that I don’t think that both of you are scum (also, though TexCat and I used similar logic on the two of you, I think I laid mine out better).

In order of increasing frequency I think your alignments are: both scum, gnarly town/scatscum, both town, scat town/gnarly scum. This ordering has been tweaked somewhat due to continued consideration and the clue stating that there may be people out there with the same clue (both town was, when I first posted it, the second least likely).

When I voted, I thought that you were more likely to be scum (and said as much!), but that there was a chance that scat was instead. However, as I said in my post, I can vote both of you due to the multivote system. Though both of you are unlikely to be scum, one of you is more likely than the average town member to be one of them. So I voted you both.

However, my shifting analysis of the probabilities (meaning I think it’s less likely scat to be scum than when I typed up my vote**, does mean that I am going to

Unvote Scathach

[Darth_Sensitive]

@LightFoot

** DarthS ** post #296
You state that you think it more likely that the first person to get a duplicated clue would be Scum- then you vote both of them ( you are riding the fence )

I laid it out above, but I thought at the time that it was a better chance one of them was scum than the average town member, so both made acceptable lynch targets. It’s day one - a one for one trade would be a great deal if we could get it. If it wasn’t multivote, it would have been a FoS on scathach for being the second one to claim the clue. I’ve since unvoted the one less likely to be scum, but will keep an eye peeled that way on the off chance that my decision tree on which was more likely to happen meant I got WIFOMed.

[Captain_Klutz]

@Chronos

Captain Klutz has 11 posts since the game started, but honestly, I can’t see anything of substance in them, and he hasn’t even voted. This is very, very bad.
I’m going to
Vote Captain Klutz
Vote Pleonast
for their lack of participation.

(bleached)

Chronos, I voted in #240

[Johnny_Bravo]

@LightFoot

it won’t get him lynched today but I want to go on record with a suspicion that stems from reading his posts/tone - also his concern that his clue might get him lynched- but no comment on if the clue would benefit Town.

That’s… actually the exact opposite of what I said. I said that my clue, if true, would be ** “potentially a really useful clue.” I also specifically said that clues should not be “could conceivably lead to a mislyching.” Nowhere did I say that I thought my clue would get my lynched specifically.

Finally, I never claimed ANYTHING, nor did I say that my PM matched Idle’s. I said it had structural and grammatical similarities with mine as part of a larger commentary about the potential validity of it coming from Storyteller or not.

Considering that you’re voting for me because of the “tone” of my posts, you’ve done a really poor job of actually reading what I posted.