Mafia: Baker Street [Game in progress]

[Askthepizzaguy]

I make my feeble attempts at analysis based on a fraction of day one behavior. I also expressed strong skepticism that any of it was worth a damn. That’s how I feel about my day one skills.

I’m attempting to get lucky, that’s basically all this is.

[Pleonast]

And I should’ve updated the thread before claiming to have reached the end. :smack:

@Askthepizzaguy

Now I get the strong sense you’re not reading for comprehension. If you spent any amount of actual time and concentration focusing on *what *I was saying, you’d realize the connection you are making between my point and initial day one no-reason votes is skin deep.

You’re barking up the wrong tree. You put stock in your unconscious scum revelation theory, and I subscribe to similar theories on how to find scum. Just ain’t gonna happen today. I doubt if you’re going to see that in time, but at the very least, I can correct myself.

I am reading for comprehension (although I sometimes make mistakes), but I’m not surface reading. I’m looking for motivations, intentions, unconscious revelations, etc.

That’s why I get accusations like Astral’s about me not commenting on cases. Others’ cases aren’t that important to me, per se. I’m trying to suss out the why’s, not that I’m particularly good at it.

@Askthepizzaguy

You’re cramming too much info at once. Slow down. More important than “catching up” is presence of mind. You cannot seriously hope to successfully analyze players when you’re barely getting the gist of what they’ve said.

I know you don’t believe this is your best analysis possible, so use day two to your advantage.

I’m doing well enough.

Once we have a voting record, I’ll starting moving over to that.

@Askthepizzaguy

Your wish, madame Sherlock, is my command.

Unvote all
(Might as well)

Vote Dizzymrslizzy

Gah! Don’t do that. Leave your votes on everyone you think should be lynched. So if I’m wrong and you are town, we’ll know where your chips really were.

@Silver_Jan

This is right there in the rules, which I forgot about when I thought that **Texcat had slipped. It tells us that Scum have a clue to start with, then Dizzy **posted her clue which says that scum have cover roles and clues so when **Texcat **said that scum have double clues it really did look like a slip and still could be but I think she was taking Dizzy’s clue into account. For Dizzy to forget her own clue…well I think that definitely points to scum.

I see it the other way. lizzy’s clue doesn’t imply anything about the number of clues that scum have. It can be interpreted to mean they have more than one, but I don’t read it as saying that. I think lizzy had the same understanding as me.

TexCat on the other hand, jumped from that clue to we absolutely know for sure that scum have two clues. Never mind that we don’t know that that clue is true, and even if it is, it doesn’t really say that scum have two clues, only that their cover roles have clues. That reeks of scum projecting their specific certain knowledge onto the vague uncertain evidence that is all we actually have.

I’m placing my scum bet on TexCat.

@DaphneBlack

I’m sorry Pleo, I don’t mean to be rude. I think I just respond badly to your extremely unemotional style. The “logical” angle can be very useful, but it doesn’t always work for me, and I guess I perceive you as always thinking that there is one optimal way to do things. If that’s not so, then that’s my fault not yours.

Saying “I always want to lynch Pleo”, I’m referring to games I have read unspoiled. I’m not sure we’ve played together before. I always think you are scummy! I think it is a tone thing again. I’m more, especially early in the game, about tone and poking and prodding. Your tone comes across as deliberately opaque or “robotic” (as you say you do not intend). For example, I sincerely applaud your use of gender-neutral “they”, a perfectly ancient English usage, but it can get in the way of understanding when someone has a clearly gendered name or identity, I think.

Well, I’m an analytic person. I’m a physicist by training and an engineer by profession. I approach everything this way.

But I don’t claim to have an optimal playstyle. Even within mine own analyses, I’m constantly sliding up and down the risk vs reward balance (think Pareto front or ROC curve, if you know what those are). And I recognize the value of other playstyles, which is why I appreciate how you’ve been playing this game. If scum can avoid one approach well, they likely can’t evade another. This also ties into why multivoting is so helpful. Restricting town to one vote really limits us.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Okay, I’ve got to sleep. I don’t know if I’ll be able to post again before end of the Day. I’m intentionally not going to claim anything more than I’ve already claimed. (Yes, Daphne, that is a calculated risk I’ve reached via analysis. .)

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Pleonast

Gah! Don’t do that. Leave your votes on everyone you think should be lynched. So if I’m wrong and you are town, we’ll know where your chips really were.

Wha-evah, I do what I want. :o

(My vote record is still on record, the thread didn’t disappear now that I’ve unvoted my previous votes)

I am also a subscriber to the single vote at the end of the round theory. Why would I spread my votes between the top candidates? Then all I’m doing is making both votes not count.

[gnarlycharlie]

@Askthepizzaguy

Wha-evah, I do what I want. :o

(My vote record is still on record, the thread didn’t disappear now that I’ve unvoted my previous votes)

I am also a subscriber to the single vote at the end of the round theory. Why would I spread my votes between the top candidates? Then all I’m doing is making both votes not count.

yes, but it would have been easier to keep track of them if you kept them.

[Mahaloth]

Pizza, are you going to claim?

[TexCat]

Vote Dizzy in blue this time:smack:

[Astral_Rejection]

@gnarlycharlie

are you voting everyone who have few posts? if not, why pick on Pleonast? he did say he would be away.

You really seem deadset on finding everything I do scummy. I’m not picking on Pleonast, I’m voting for three low-content posters on the basis of WHAT they’ve chosen not to talk about.

@Darth_Sensitive

But it goes back to those early votes that accused him of bandwagoning - it looks like he is working to save himself here (and he did say as much), which is either poor (selfish) town play or the equivalent of soft claiming a power role. Or he’s scum. The first of those three seems more likely (because I know I can fall into that trap myself at times) at the moment.

I believe self-preservation is a null tell. Scum will do it to save their own hide… and town will do it because they know they’re 100% town, and they’re some number less than 100% sure about the other guy.

@septimus

And it’s possible Mr. Rejection just slipped:
The Scum are probably communicating over at Proboards which uses different tags, including [s].

Possible, sure. I can’t defend against this, although it’s certainly not true. I so rarely do strikethroughs, I just thought it was [s] and didn’t bother previewing. If that’s what does me in, oh well. I accept it.

[Astral_Rejection]

@Mahaloth

Pizza, are you going to claim?

Why should pizza claim? Aren’t I leading the lynch vote?

[Astral_Rejection]

Also, Day ends in a little under 3 hours.

[Johnny_Bravo]

@Astral_Rejection

Why should pizza claim? Aren’t I leading the lynch vote?

That’s an odd thing to ask, since you just posted a vote update in which you were not the vote leader. :dubious:

Anyway, I’ve been working on an update to that update.

It’s just Astral’s earlier list updated with votes since then, and I don’t have any unvotes or post numbers, so this is definitely an unofficial transcript and cannot be used for your grad school application.
dizzymrslizzy (7) - Silver Jan, Septimus, DaphneBlack, Astral Rejection, Askthepizzaguy, Darth Sensitive, Texcat

Pleonast (5) - Chronos, LightFoot, Mahaloth, Darth Sensitive, Astral Rejection

Astral Rejection (5) - wevets, Chronos, Rysto, gnarlycharlie, septimus

Texcat (5) - Scathach, septimus, dizzymrslizzy, gnarlycharly, Pleonast

Askthepizzaguy (5) - sinjin, Chronos, Inner Stickler, Pleonast, Darth Sensitive

Mahaloth (3) - Chronos, sinjin, Pleonast

DiggitCamara (2) - DaphneBlack, Johnny Bravo

septimus (2) - Texcat, Idle Thoughts

Idle Thoughts (2) - wevets, septimus

Chronos (2) - wevets, Pleonast

LightFoot (2) - Astral Rejection, Pleonast

Darth Sensitive (1) – gnarlycharly

gnarlycharly (1) - Darth Sensitive

Inner Stickler (1) - wevets

Johnny Bravo (1) - Lightfoot

Silver Jan (1) - Captain Klutz

sinjin (1) Dizzymrslizzy

[Astral_Rejection]

Eh, it’s morning and I haven’t had my coffee yet. You can’t expect me to remember a vote count I did right before bed!

I approve of lynching Dizzy. It’s not too late to switch to LightFoot though, guys!

[Captain_Klutz]

I agree that it looks very odd for Dizzymrslizzy to think that TexCat had made a slip about scum “double clues” when Dizzymrslizzy’s own clue said that "Scum players have all been given complete, detailed false identities, including clues. "

vote Dizzymrslizzy

[Johnny_Bravo]

For the purpose of aggregating data, here are players who currently have more than one vote in the top top five (four of whom are tied for second place). I think I got this right.

Septimus (3)
Astral Rejection (2)
Darth Sensitive (3)
Chronos (3)
Pleonast (2)

With ties possibly being resolved by a random roll, I hope these players (especially those with three votes among the top five) will decide on which case they like best.

[Johnny_Bravo]

And Captain Klutz increases dizzy’s lead to three while I’m writing up THAT post, so the odds of a tie have just decreased dramatically.

[wevets]

@Idle_Thoughts

But hey, if it’s allowed in this game, great… here it is:

So even though it matches yours, it MUST mean I’m scum since scum have false roles, right? Pay no attention to the fact that EVERYONE’S PM, therefore, is going to already look like yours and therefore should be a moot point to vote for someone, it has to be because I have a false role, right?

I see your point. And in addition, others are taking it in stride, so I should probably give more leeway than I did earlier.

Unvote Idle Thoughts

[Astral_Rejection]

@Pleonast

That’s why I get accusations like Astral’s about me not commenting on cases. Others’ cases aren’t that important to me, per se. I’m trying to suss out the why’s, not that I’m particularly good at it.

Well, I mean… you can see where I’m coming from, right? It’s not really just an accusation, it’s an accurate assessment of what you’re doing. You have directly stated you’re not commenting on others’ cases… which is what I said you’re doing. You could very well not be scum, but what you’re doing makes it hard for me to pin you down one way or the other, and a scum Pleo could be doing that on purpose.

Regardless, I’m swapping my vote preference. You’re making an active effort to play the game now, and your posts since my vote for you have lessened my suspicion as a result. As I said to dizzy, “playing the game” will get me to remove my “not playing the game” vote rationale.

Unvote Pleonast.

I disagree with your strategy, but only because it makes it harder for me to suss out your motivations. You’ve taken more of a stance on things, and “not quite playing the way I would play” isn’t scummy.

[Johnny_Bravo]

For my last vote of the day, I’m going to

Vote Lightfoot

I like the case that Astral built in post 440. Specifically I think her vote on me was weak as hell, and when I defended my position she justified it by using phrases like “the way I read it you seemed” and “my read of your post was that,” admits that she may have misinterpreted me, but keeps the vote on me anyway.

Weak, lazy, scummy.

Why am I not adding to the Dizzy lynch?

I don’t see much scumminess in her “caught” slip of Texcat. I think it was an overeager “ah ha! I’ve found something!” more than “ah ha! I can use this.”

This game makes you really anxious to find something clever and that’s all I really get on that.

Silver Jan’s and Astral’s votes on Dizzy are for being quiet and cautious, but I think Lightfoot is a better case on that note. Pizza’s vote literally boils down to “jawohl Herr Holmes!” Most of the rest of the votes seem to be retribution for bandwagoning, and I can get on board with that, but I see little reason to jump on a bandwagon that’s well down the road.

[Astral_Rejection]

LightFoot’s still my #1 preference. I’m glad it’s getting some traction, as she’s my largest scum lean.

[storyteller0910]

**Y’all, I have a meeting in five minutes and just spent the last hour making the spreadsheet to catch up on the votes. I will post a complete count after my meeting, but for the moment, I have the following as the top five:

dizzymrslizzy (8)
Texcat (5)
Astral Rejection (5)
Askthepizzaguy (5)
Pleonast (4)

Then Mahaloth with 3, four others with 2, and seven players with single votes.

Please let me know if anyone disagrees (NOTE: The votes on Diggit were missed by the moderator, not affected by any gameplay mechanism).

[Johnny_Bravo]

[OOG]Just as an FYI before the end of the Day: I’m going to be out of town from tonight through Saturday evening. I’ll keep up with the reading, but I may or may not be able to contribute much until I get back.[/OOG]