Your vote analysis tool is a complicated way of guessing that scum will behave the same way every game, and can be fooled by simply voting randomly.
Your tool is invariably based on the assumption that scums will vote in X way. When townies vote that way, which they will, since they aren’t trying to avoid the assumptions made by your tool, and scums vote Y way, your tool has become obsolete and counterproductive.
I know because I made several vote analysis tools, and worked with someone else who was a computer programmer who had also made his own vote analysis tool, and it works until the scums recognize your tells and/or simply do random things.
Random, that is actually random, cannot be analyzed by any tool.
Further, overthinking day one reasons for voting when the votes are random, is also an attempt to analyze or give reasons for essentially random behavior. Simply making up a justification for voting someone. Post facto justifications are just that, attached reasons which didn’t affect the decision to begin with. The decision was made, and then reasons were attached, is still a random vote.
There’s another weakness with vote analysis tools.
I’ve posted a lot today. Some players have a preference which makes them much more likely to vote for high-posters. That is their justification, but they’ll then attach a reason, pick on some flaw in the talker’s posts, to give a reason to vote for the talker.
Now, the talker is going to be a talker, more or less, every game. So the success of their voting strategy is wholly dependent on the idea that this player got randed a scum role. And since this player has the same chances as everyone else, this vote which has a meta-reasoning for it and a post facto justification, is also… tada… a random vote.
Or at least, a vote with no more than a random chance of being correct.
The same applies to players who vote for people who don’t post much. It is a chosen justification for voting which is, ultimately, just as random as any other kind of random voting.
Any assumptions made by your analysis tool which include a behavior that is common to a particular player will also give false positives more times than not, simply because that player has a higher chance of being town than scum.
When the ultimate outcome is that you have not improved your odds of being right, the tool is also, nothing more than a post facto justification for random votes.
Since that’s what we’re going to end up doing one way or the other, at least until there’s a voting record, I suggest we not quibble so hard over random voting.
…I’m not really sure where you’re going with that argument, pizza. Yes, random voting will defeat any attempt at vote analysis, whether done via computer, or by humans. Scum want to defeat vote analyses, and so there’s a reason for a Scum to vote randomly. But why would a Townie ever want to vote randomly? Townies don’t want to defeat vote analyses; Townies want to help the analysis.
I personally don’t like “random” votes but voting on D1 with little reasoning behind it seems fair enough, usually there is a bit more to go on as the Day progresses (and it’s usually wrong)
I think that if players want to reveal their clues it is up to them but in my case I would like to keep it confidential for now because it might come in handy later on.
What tools does town have to not vote randomly right now?
No one has died and flipped town or scum
There’s no vote record, save for Askthepizzaguy. You’re welcome.
There hasn’t even been a detective result yet.
Some players haven’t even shown up to the party.
You can’t analyze something that isn’t there.
Attempts at analysis come later. The trouble will come when random votes won’t work anymore and the reasons have to be based off of real reasons.
Saying this guy doesn’t behave the same way as the others is the best thing you could possibly come up with for day one and it’s still going to be nearly as reliable a reason to vote as a random number generator this early.
Later, reasons will have depth to them.
We can’t get to later until we get past the now. And if there’s votes placed on scumbags now, that places pressure on the scum team, even though we don’t know exactly what we’re doing.
I don’t need to know if I’m right, I don’t need to have justifiable reasons to vote for Darth Sensitive. If he happened to be scum, and someone else voted him today, I just made his whole opening miserable.
Yes, in overly powered games town does seem to rely on power roles to a ridiculous extent. What does that have to do with the scums ability to “smell the way the wind is blowing?” And why would scums not “know who is about to be lynched” in a mostly vanilla game vs a powered game? This makes no sense to me.
Several folks have brought up the fact that **STORYTELLER **himself said that posting your clue might be damaging to your team. If your clue cannot damage town then post it.
And here you go again. Urging town to do something that the **MOD **has said could be a bad idea and you don’t care.
Vote Mahaloth. I don’t subscribe to the “scums wouldn’t do that” line of thought.
This is ridiculous. Voting someone because they only posted once in the first 9 hours of the game. Some of us have real lives. I didn’t even know the game started til this am, when I started reading. And it’s false that he waffled on his own clue. He clearly stated it would not help unless we did a name claim.
Why all the talk and defense of random voting. You have made multiple posts about random voting, which is meaningless in this game, as you are the only person who has posted a random, obviously joking vote.
[COLOR=“Blue”]vote Pizza For, not for his random vote on Darth, but for his ridiculous vote on **Darth **and for spamming the thread with posts on random voting.
I see** Sinjin** has it right, it’s an early D1 vote but it has a reason behind it. I have already started thinking about why Pizza has posted so much about random votes, is it to have a high post count so that he looks involved while pretty much saying nothing because he is scum.
The reason I posted so much about random votes is the inordinately high number of people who have posited the opinion that random voting is bad, and since I do it routinely on day one (as do the rest of you, just in denial about it) I felt the need to demolish those biases.
I am certainly willing to pay the price for that in votes. Just like the last game on here, where I stated my opinions and they got me votes and they were also incorrect.
Bring it on, it makes me giggle when I get mislynched. It makes those games where I am scum and survive the entire time ever more glorious.
**Storyyteller **was sadistic enough to do something similar in the “Blade Runner” game. He gave clues to each of the masons about the scum team and the PFK team which eventually led to the demise of the PFKs who ignored his advice about leaking information.
How I behave is often directly related to the thread.
If there’s a lack of voting or direction, I almost invariably pick a direction and a vote and encourage others to follow me off on some random direction. If we’re talking game theory I’ll jump right in and offer my not subtle opinions on it, at length, particularly if the discussion is not just between me and one other person, but several people with differing opinions to my own.
Now, if things start picking up, and others get their feet wet and take a chance and ask for someone to follow them in a given direction, or the discussion moves to who is scummy and who is not, and there is more than one topic being discussed, you’ll see me move more into normal player mode.
I’m sort of like a gas. Full of hot air, stinky… no, I mean, I expand to fill empty spaces.
It’s been fairly empty so far, with the exception of some posters discussing the clues and game theory. So I’m all over the place.
I’ve also had many hours of free time which is about to end, for I have four 10-hour plus shifts in a row for the next 4 days. Less pizza-gas is coming soon to a theater near you.
Post #55, when he restated the rules without flavor.
"I will state for the record that I have by various means attempted to ensure that public reveal of certain clues or other information may not always benefit the side of the player given the clue. "
