Unfortunately, I can think of a reason why the Wolves might do just that. If storyteller turns out to be a Wolf, people are going to go nuts trying to figure out whether he was lying or telling the truth in his previous investigations. If the people he “confirmed” are indeed both town, the odds are good that one of them will end up getting lynched anyway. And we’re running low on mislynches.
Oh, and while I’m here:
Vote ShadowFacts
Doesn’t make sense to me. For one part, they would have to believe there’s a true Constable running around… and (s)he could easily confirm their roles.
If **story **actually was a Wolf I’d have expected him to have ratted out one of his compadres earlier on. Don’t you think that would have been the perfect cover for him?
And then there’s the Vampire… regardless of story’s actual role, what’s his/her plan of action? I believe there’s some reason why those whom (s)he has bitten can’t rat him/her out. If I’m right about that, we should be very worried about him/her…
Well, this is an interesting turn of events.
You conveniently forgot a third option: You’re a Wolf and story’s a Wolf. This could be a carefully scripted, strategic gambit on both your parts.
How is talking about a possible option “spreading panic”? One asset that the town has over the scum is the Day’s discussion. It seems like you’re trying to rush this lynch along. “We can talk about it tomorrow” is a bad idea in my humble opinion, just for the fact that the town hasn’t been talking much as a whole to begin with. I know I’ve been part of that, but my schedule’s somewhat more free now. I, personally, think we should do some analysis before rushing into things. Maybe it’s just my inherent suspicion of storyteller talking, but we have to consider all sides of this.
If storyteller is a constable, he found scum. That’s pretty simple.
If storyteller is scum, we have two questions. One, WHY now? Two, WHY ShadowFacts? If ShadowFacts is town and not a scum buddy being bussed, that’s four mislynches and therefore we’d very likely be in a lynch-or-lose situation Tomorrow. Obviously we lynch storyteller if he’s lying, but we’re still in a bad situation.
I’m guessing the reason people are ready to accept this so quickly is the fact that there hasn’t been another Constable counter-claim. Even so, I’m going to remain skeptical for the moment and retake a look at ShadowFacts and storyteller’s case against ShadowFacts before I vote.
Just as an aside note, I’ve kind of developed a medical problem. I may have to have some minor surgery done sometime this week. I don’t think it will affect my posting or keep me away for very long as I don’t think it’s a big deal, but I thought I would let people know just in case.
See, people? This shows dedication! This shows DISCIPLINE!
(Or, alternatively, dude… remember: this is just a game. Take care of yourself. Should you be modkilled… it doesn’t actually matter, you know? Good luck with your procedure)
Please excuse the sloppiness of the snippage.
I consider it “spreading panic” because there’s no flippin way we’re going to be able to analyze anything. Either story is lying or he’s telling the truth. I’m not trying to rush anything, but I really don’t think we have the tools to find out which one it is Today. I don’t think we’ll be able to find out the WHY part at all Today. I just don’t see what we’re going to gather today.
Good luck with your surgery, I don’t remember if I told you guys, but I had my ACL replaced about 3 weeks ago, and I’m already moving around like a champ. I hope your recovery is as fast as mine was!!
Like I said in my above reply, I think there’s a lot of questions Today, and not any answers. We’ll have the tools to have more answers Tomorrow. Oh, and the snark? I dig it. 
Thanks for the week off, though. Next week at work is going to be the busiest on record, I’m going to need it!
Well we already know what we’d do if Shadow comes up town…lynch story. But, what do we do after that? What do we do if Shadow is scum…do we assume story didn’t just out him for townie cred as a wolf, or do we assume story is a constable? If so, then who would our next target be? Analysis can still be done on players in the game, and I think w/out some discussion we’re going to wind up hurting ourselves come next Day.
Well, the only reasonable way to approach this is to assume storyteller is telling the truth. If he’s scum looking to seal the win here, well then good going, well-played and all that. We’d be good and truly effed, so I’m not even going to weigh that as a consideration here.
I’m sticking to my guns on this one – the ShadowFacts/Nanook tag-team ploy remains a full-blown conspiracy indicator to me, and as far as I’m concerned the investigation of Shadow damns the both of them. For today…
Vote ShadowFacts
I know where I’m heading for my tomorrow vote as well.
Let’s look at the possibilites here.
-
Shadow is town, story is town. Far and away the most unlikely. Would require Shadow to be a miller, a role not included in the set up, and for him to not claim it when fingered(not that anyone would believe such a claim). Can be dismissed and ignored, only mentioned for the sake of completeness.
-
Shadow is a wolf, story is town. The obvious situation on the surface.
-
Shadow is a wolf, story is a wolf. Story is throwing Shadow under the bus for some long game plan. At first blush, it strikes me as a risky play, since it’ll get ruined if story is counterclaimed. On the other hand, if the wolves have a scout and are reasonably sure there isn’t a constable waiting to counterclaim, then this sort of play could win the game for them. Something to keep in mind.
-
Shadow is town, story is a wolf. Worrisome if true, since it makes it sound like the wolves are getting close to a win.
Now the question becomes what should we do Today. Everyone seems to be of the lynch Shadow opinion, but before I commit I want to consider which way would have the higher long term expected value.
If we lynch Shadow and he comes up non-miller town, then obviously story is lying and we lynch him immediately. And no, we should not wait and try to find wolves in the unknown group before we lynch him. Doperville tried that and it didn’t go so well for them. If they had just gone for it and killed one of the rival detectives, they might have had a chance. Let’s not make that same mistake, especially since we’re heading the same way they were in terms of no scum dead yet.
If Shadow comes up Wolf, it doesn’t necessarily confirm story, though it goes a long way towards doing so. At that point, barring a counter claim, we ride him as far as we can, for as long as he survives. Unfortunately, I’m not sure we have the mislynches left to kill story solely to confirm his investigations. I might be wrong on this though, so something to consider for later.
If we lynch story and he comes up town, then we can be assured that Shadow is a wolf, and that his other investigations are accurate. But we lose out on at least 1 investigation, possibly more.
If we lynch story and he comes up wolf, we learn nothing concrete about any of story’s investigations.
On balance, we learn more, both now and in the future, by lynching Shadow first, and then basing our next actions on the outcome of that event. As such, I will
Vote Shadowfacts
Day 4 vote count as of post 1049
6- ShadowFacts - (story, Santo Rugger, Diggit, Fretful, Hal, Nanook)
Not Voting:
Koldanar, Pollux Oil, Blaster Master, Ryjae, ShadowFacts, Santo Rugger
Remeber, the minimum posting number is 4. So you have to all post at least 4 times. Double tripple posts etc count as one, so get posting.
Also, it looks like Ryjae may have to drop out of the game due to a major temporary lack of computer access. I am going to talk to diver and see if we can’t re-sub that role since he never really got a chance to join the game in the first place.
That would be fine with me if you can find anyone to take his place.
Ok, MHaye is back! One final time he will try to join the Cecilvania crew. He PM’d me with his interest right before I sent him the spoiler links, so he is unspoiled.
He will join you all shortly.
Players:
Koldanar
Hal Briston
Fretful Porpentine
Storyteller
Nanook of the North Shore
Pollux Oil
Blaster Master
[del]Darth Sensitive Ryjae[/del] MHaye[sup]3[/sup]
ShadowFacts
[del]CatInASuit[/del] Santo Rugger
DiggitCamara
OneAndOnlyWanderers - Townsperson (Lynched Day 1)
RoOsh - Townsperson (Killed Night 1)
sachertorte - Townsperson (Lynched Day 2)
[del]Hockey Monkey[/del] MHaye - Townsperson (Killed Night 2)
Freudian Slit - Townsperson (Lynched Day 3)
[del]WF Tomba[/del] MHaye[sup]2[/sup] - Townsperson (killed Night 3)
Day 4 ends Thursday at 4pm Eastern. No more subs will be allowed at the end of the Day. All players not meeting posting requirements will be mod-killed with no alignment or roles revealed.
Day 4 vote count as of post 1053
6- ShadowFacts - storyteller, Santo Rugger, DiggitCamara, Fretful Porpentine, Hal Briston, Nanook
Not Voting: Koldanar, Pollux Oil, Blaster Master, MHaye, ShadowFacts
Here is a message to the Werewolves of Cecilvania.
Nyah nyah! Can’t kill mee-eee!
… Well, not until Tonight, anyway.
Of course, this means I now have to actually read the thread and catch up with Days 1 and 2, a process which I held off of until I found out whether I survived Night 3.
I didn’t bother after getting killed out, but since (as NAF says) I never actually got access to the spoiler forums, I might as well sub back in.
So, where was I? Oh yes, about page 5. I’ll start the reread in a while.
/total fluff post.
Before I start my reread, one of the reasons for subbing back in was that a few hours ago I was gnashing my teeth, wishing I could make a point about the current debate. I might as well make it now, while it’s still fresh in my mind.
Simply put, when we construct a hypothesis of the game, if we unearth facts that agrees with the hypothesis, that does not prove it is true; it strengthens the hypothesis, and makes it more likely, but it does not demonstrate its truth unequivocally (unless it can mean nothing else).
If, on the other hand, we find facts that disprove the hypothesis, that means the hypothesis is more than likely false.
I’ve been constructing a long-ish post on the current gamestate, and I want that firmly in our collective mind when I start waffling.
Since it would be terrible from a town standpoint to just waste this day with no conversation, and since Shadow appears to be a deadman barring a counterclaim, we should probably get a head start on Tomorrow.
Our vote tomorrow is kinda obvious if Shadow comes up town. The question is, what do we do if he comes up Wolf? As I outlined before, it doesn’t confirm anything regarding story, even if it adds weight to it. Hal has made it clear what he’s doing, what about the rest of you? As for me, I’m not sure. Obviously a lot can change over the course of a Day. I think I’d want to do a reread and see if anything jumps out at me before I commit. It might be time to lynch story for info at that point, assuming he doesn’t die overnight.
And it would get almost everyone in the game killed. I just did a quick count, and I don’t think anyone has 4 posts yet. (Rugger might, I wasn’t writing down numbers, I was just eyeballing)
I had a fleeting thought about upping the post requirement to 8 and discounting all posts that had a vote in them, but I decided to relent.
But y’all better find SOMETHING to talk about.
The main issue for me right now, is is Storyteller a Townsperson or a Werewolf.
Nanook, in [post=9886557]post 1049[/post], presents a reasonably good summary of the question. Let us for now neglect the hypothesis that Storyteller is Dracula.
If Storyteller is a Townsman then he is the Constable. We only have to look back at M1 (links available on request) to see what happens when a townsman makes a false claim of a Town-aligned power role for an example of why not.
The counterclaim might not (indeed should not) come immediately, but sooner or later it will come. When that happens, Townsmen will be confused, and debate, and the confusion will give the Wolves a chance to establish an unassailable position.
Storyteller-the-Constable is giving us true reads – ie he is reporting what he has been told. This does not mean his reports are inerrant; one of his two “Townsperson” reports could in fact be the Alpha Wolf. How can we test his claim? We match the reports against revelation of the true role on death.
Now, it’s not a good idea to lynch a reported Townsperson – unless you are a wolf. That would encourage a Wolf to make a false claim and ID a townsman as what they are, then expect us to do their killing for them. Besides, if we refuse to kill reported Townspeople, that forces the Wolves to go after them, wasting their kills. The wolves can either kill the Constable-cleared Townsmen, thus providing corroboration of his investigations, or kill an unknown, thus reducing the pool of players in which they can hide.
When Storyteller the Constable finds a real genuine Werewolf, all bets are off. It is a gain to the Town to lynch them, especially if the gamestate is close to Lynch or Lose. It provides some corroboration of Storyteller’s claim. There’s only one thing that makes me hesitate to place my own vote now. I’ll discuss that a bit later in this post. For now, suffice it to say that I plan to vote for Shadowfacts later. But I want to discuss another issue first.
Now, let us discuss the possibility that Storyteller may be a Werewolf.
Usually, Werewolves trying to false-claim the Constable risk discovery by making slight errors in their reporting as well as by the real Constable counterclaiming. That is, the Wereconstable may report that so-and-sow is a Townsperson, then when the “cleared” player is slain it is discovered that they have a power role. In this game, that danger is completely absent, if there is a Scout. The Scout can tell his pack who he is going to sniff at, then use a simple code to alert their packmates to the result that same Day. Consequently Storyteller the Wereconstable could benefit from the Scout’s investigation when reporting his find, even if the Scout finds out only after Dawn.
Storyteller-the-Wereconstable could even bethe Scout.
Now, a Wereconstable would expect his reports (so long as they remain unchallenged) to be treated as a real Constable’s. If he falsely reports a Townsperson return on a Werewolf then we’re not going to lynch those people until given a reason to. That reason might come from (say) a false Werewolf report. Now, if we lynch a subject reported to be a Werewolf and find they are a Townsperson, the immediate reaction would be to lynch the lying investigator the next Day. Thus, if the game continued, the Wolves would have engineered a 1-for-1 trade (in the short term). This is worthwhile only if that sacrifice pushes the Wolves to the edge of victory, if not over it. I submit that, for Storyteller to be giving a false report about Shadowfacts, the Wolves must believe it to be endgame. Either they win by the lynch of Shadowfacts (immediately or with the Nightkill), or they have a solid plan to steer the Town to mislynches after Storyteller is lynched the following Day.
Thus my hesitation over joining the Shadowfacts bandwagon right now is that nagging doubt “Is Storyteller’s report a way to bus the Townspeople into the abyss.”
To get a handle on that, I want to count the numbers, which I will do this evening. (I have some football to watch. The type of football that uses a spherical ball and moves it around by kicking it instead of picking it up and carrying it.)
Back later with more waffle.
Ok let’s do the math then. I’m not that familiar with JSexton’s formula, so I can’t coment on that. Not sure how much good it would do if I was though, since we don’t know what roles either side has, not to mention how do you account for Dracula? For the purposes of this post, we’ll look at 3-5 wolves. Any more or less than that amount would be unbalanced one way or the other. Remember we started with 17 people, and 11 are left alive. All the dead are vanilla town. For the purposes of this post, we are assuming that Shadow is town and Story is a wolf.
If there are 3 wolves, then it’s either 7-3-1 or 8-3. After the lynch and nightkill, it will be either 5-3-1 or 6-3. Story will be lynched Tomorrow, another townie eats it overnight, leaving it 4-2-1 or 5-2. In this situation, the question becomes what, if any, power roles we have. An actual constable+2 masons would possibly be game over for the town, depending on Dracula and investigation results.
4 wolves leaves us 6-4-1 or 7-4. Lynch+nightkill is 4-4-1 or 5-4. Add in story’s lynch and another nightkill, 3-3-1 or 4-3. Lylo, with Dracula in position to potentially steal a win. Again, power roles will play a large part in deciding how this one ends.
5 wolves is 5-5-1 or 6-5. If this is the case, then it’s game over for us, with either the Wolves or Dracula winning. I don’t think this one is paticularly likely though, since it’s unbalanced in favor of scum without multiple power roles for town. Since every single person who has died so far has been vanilla, it seems unlikely at best.
I think option 2 is the most likely of the three. As I said, I’m not all that familiar with jsexton’s formula, so I can’t be precise using it, but I’ve seen 1/4 or the square root of the total players given as a balanced number as well. Since 4 is close to 25% and the square root of 17, that works out number wise. Actual power role breakdowns can change this balance obviously. Doc blocks and Dracula change the math as laid out above, but I’m so not going through all those possibilities.