Mafia: Cecilvania [Game Over]

The Game Room
1061

[QUOTE=MHaye]

Now, a Wereconstable would expect his reports (so long as they remain unchallenged) to be treated as a real Constable’s. If he falsely reports a Townsperson return on a Werewolf then we’re not going to lynch those people until given a reason to. That reason might come from (say) a false Werewolf report. Now, if we lynch a subject reported to be a Werewolf and find they are a Townsperson, the immediate reaction would be to lynch the lying investigator the next Day. Thus, if the game continued, the Wolves would have engineered a 1-for-1 trade (in the short term). This is worthwhile only if that sacrifice pushes the Wolves to the edge of victory, if not over it. I submit that, for Storyteller to be giving a false report about Shadowfacts, the Wolves must believe it to be endgame. Either they win by the lynch of Shadowfacts (immediately or with the Nightkill), or they have a solid plan to steer the Town to mislynches after Storyteller is lynched the following Day.

Thus my hesitation over joining the Shadowfacts bandwagon right now is that nagging doubt “Is Storyteller’s report a way to bus the Townspeople into the abyss.”

.
[/QUOTE]

You know, I feel like I should try to get others to make my points for me…In my head, this is exactly the scenario I am worried about. Can I get it out in a post though? Nooo. Anyway, MHaye, thank you for putting this more consicely and eloquently than I would have.

I’m pretty sure, looking at the votes, that a ShadowFacts lynch today is almost inevitable. I’d rather not put my vote that way without us discussing some more at least, and figuring out our next steps. If this turns out to be a wolf ploy, we may have to be VERY exact (I hope these are the numbers you plan on looking at later?). Quick back-of-the napkin numbers gives me the impression that if we are 8 vs. 3 (counting drac in with town ATM) we can mislynch a little…if it’s instead 7 vs 4…and we mislynch today, it’s 5 vs. 4 tomorrow. Not a good situation at all, especially if one of those 4 is Dracula. Thoughts?

1062

And…I see nanook has posted a little more in-depth coverage while I got a surprise party from my office! Bah

1063

Nanook; Thanks,but I think you have to cast your net a bit wider when considering scenarios. My reasons for this are found in the win conditions. From [post=9807473]post 137[/post] :

Townspeople : win when all of the Werewolves and Vampires have been found and killed.
Werewolves : win if their number is greater than or equal to the number of Town players at the end of the Day and Dracula is dead.
Vampires : win if Dracula is alive when all of the Werewolves have been killed and their number outnumbers the Town.

The point at issue is that the Town might already be in the minority, and the game is going on only because Dracula is still alive. Do I really think that? No – but I do not believe we can afford to neglect the Vampires.

There are two reasons why I believe the Vampires are more significant than people assume. Firstly, I doubt whether USCDiver would have included a toothless role. (Pun very much intended).

According to the rules, if Dracula bites a werewolf he dies. Does anyone not think that such a restriction requires one of two things; a very small number of Werewolves or a hidden power that turns Dracula into a dangerous role? My speculation was that Dracula can simply order one of his Spawn to die by (openly) posting it. If that happens just before Drac gets lynched, that would mean the slain Spawn loses the game. The main issue of Day 1 was how Dracula could stop someone he bites from claiming on the spot. That’s how. The player making the claim does so in order to rejoin the Town and win with the Town, rather than trying to win as a Vampire. If they’re faced with the certainty of losing if they try it, they might be a bit more hesitant to do so.

Secondly, it’s quite possible that Storyteller has been feeding Dracula vital info – who he can bite in safety. One of the big problems for Vlad is the fact that he will die if he bites the wrong player. If I were him, I’d have been playing strictly as a Townsperson, trying to kill Werewolves, and waiting for the Constable to claim and give me a list of Townspeople to feed on. (Yes that assumes Storyteller is the real deal.)

Finally, two related questions.

Is Storyteller Dracula in disguise? If not, has he been bitten?

Frankly, I’m not inclined to believe that Storyteller is Dracula. Dracula would be taking an enormous risk claiming an investigator role, because he has to guess the alignment of the players he “investigates.” So unless Dracula’s hidden power (and I do believe in one) is an investigative power, he risks being unmasked to the Werewolves by falsely reporting a Wolf is a Townsperson, and if he wrongly labels a Townsperson as a Werewolf, he’ll be outed as a liar as soon as the dust clears on the lynching, and dead the next Day. Unless he can convince us that the Wolves are about to win and one needs killing.

So he’s not Dracula in disguise. But he might have been bitten. No-one’s mentioned this, but once Storyteller is confirmed to be the Constable, he’s prime feed on the hoof for Dracula. And worse, I can’t recall if a vampire spawn loses his powers on becoming a Vampire. Do the rules say?

For all the above reasons I think the game has gone on long enough now that ignoring the Vampires could cost the Townspeople any chance of winning.

1064

[QUOTE=MHaye]

Secondly, it’s quite possible that Storyteller has been feeding Dracula vital info – who he can bite in safety. One of the big problems for Vlad is the fact that he will die if he bites the wrong player. If I were him, I’d have been playing strictly as a Townsperson, trying to kill Werewolves, and waiting for the Constable to claim and give me a list of Townspeople to feed on. (Yes that assumes Storyteller is the real deal.)

[/quote]

That’s an awfully good point. Not much can be done about it, though. I will say that I have not been bitten, and would like to re-emphasize for anyone considering biting me in the future that I will reveal your identity if you turn me, even if it costs me the game. Sort of a mutually-assured destruction proposition.

Otherwise, sorry I’ve been quiet today (Monday). I got a little caught up trying to manage a role claim in the offboard game. For my part, while the assorted speculation about what it will mean if I’m lying is understandable, it’s not a discussion to which I can contribute much, as I know that I am not lying. ShadowFacts is a Wolf, and so I’m going to concentrate my analysis toDay on how that bit of info affects our view of past events.

1065

[QUOTE=storyteller0910]
<snip> I will reveal your identity if you turn me, even if it costs me the game.<snip>
[/QUOTE]
Why would you do that?

1066

Here’s an updated list of all the end of the day votes for easy access.

Day One
9 - OAOW: Fretful Porpentine, Blaster Master, storyteller, Freudian Slit, RoOsh, Nanook, Koldanar, Hal Briston, Darth Sensitive
5- Freudian Slit: Pollux Oil, Hockey Monkey, CatInASuit, OAOW, sachertorte
1- sachertorte: DiggitCamara
1- Hal Briston: ShadowFacts
1- Diggit: WF Tomba

Day Two
5- sachertorte: Blaster Master, DiggitCamara, Freudian Slit, storyteller, Rugger
3- Darth Sensitive: Pollux Oil, WF Tomba, Koldanar
2- ShadowFacts: Hal Briston, Fretful Porpentine
1- WF Tomba: Darth Sensitive
1- Hal Briston: Nanook
1- Blaster Master: sachertorte
1- DiggitCamara: ShadowFacts
1- Freudian Slit: Hockey Monkey

Day Three
5 - Freudian Slit: Santo Rugger, Koldanar, ShadowFacts, WF Mhaye, Pollux Oil
4 - WF Tomba/Mhaye: Blaster Master, Darth Sensitive, Nanook, Freudian Slit
2 - ShadowFacts: storyteller, Hal Briston
1 - Pollux Oil: Fretful Porpentine
1 - Hal Briston: DiggitCamara

(There wasn’t an official vote count at the end of Day 3, but I think that’s right.)

1067

[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
Why would you do that?
[/QUOTE]

Because mutually assured destruction only works if it’s mutually assured.

I don’t want to be a Vampire. I don’t like the idea of being recruited in any regard, of my win condition changing, of any good play I’ve made so far being essentially penalized.

So if Dracula decides to recruit me, I’ll make sure he loses the game in exchange.

Hopefully, that will keep him from so doing. He can take the risk that I’m bluffing, and that once the game is on the line I’ll change my mind, or he can leave me the hell alone and play it safe. His call.

1068

Did everyone get eaten by Dracula overnight or something?

I don’t see what we are really supposed to do about Dracula. Obviously we have to lynch him, or have the Wolves kill him for us at some point, but how are we supposed to do that? Fangface would be a moron to play as anything other than a townie, and he doesn’t have to worry about PIS outting him. Barring an incredible stroke of luck, the wolves doing our work for us, or a Constable investigation, it doesn’t seem like there’s anything that would out him for us. I would love to be wrong on this, but I’m just not seeing it.

1069

Whats happened? Everyone salivating over Conspiracy 2? Guys, we need more discussion if we want to have any hope of winning this one!

1070

[QUOTE=Koldanar]
Whats happened? Everyone salivating over Conspiracy 2? Guys, we need more discussion if we want to have any hope of winning this one!
[/QUOTE]

Stalker! That’s a scum tell!

1071

[QUOTE=Nanook of the North Shore]
<snip> Fangface would be a moron to play as anything other than a townie, and he doesn’t have to worry about PIS outting him. Barring an incredible stroke of luck, the wolves doing our work for us, or a Constable investigation, it doesn’t seem like there’s anything that would out him for us. I would love to be wrong on this, but I’m just not seeing it.
[/QUOTE]
The way I understand it, as Dracula’s group gets larger, they’ll become their own force, and we may be able to start picking up vote patterns of a second scum group. I don’t think we’ll really be able to until the first one dies, though.

1072

[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
The way I understand it, as Dracula’s group gets larger, they’ll become their own force, and we may be able to start picking up vote patterns of a second scum group. I don’t think we’ll really be able to until the first one dies, though.
[/QUOTE]

At this point I’m assuming Dracula, if he exists, has only JUST started biting people. I’m not sure we can look for him yet if this is the case, can we? For all we know too, a bit person can’t act in a way that they otherwise might…ugh. Too many assumptions are being made about this role. I’d rather at least get a wolf or two before we can worry too much? This might need another semi - numbers post to look at it.

1073

I’m starting to wonder if Dracula has an investigative ability, and can either investigate or bite. Because either they don’t trust story, or they have another plan, because I haven’t been bitten yet. Odd.

1074

Either that, or one isn’t told when they’re bitten. I’m wondering if that might be the case, and a person only knows who Dracula is, so they can’t work as an entire team. Otherwise, when Dracula dies, everybody would be able to confirm each other as town.

P.S. Koldanar, we’ve already got a wolf. :stuck_out_tongue:

1075

[QUOTE=Nanook of the North Shore]
Obviously a lot can change over the course of a Day. I think I’d want to do a reread and see if anything jumps out at me before I commit. It might be time to lynch story for info at that point, assuming he doesn’t die overnight.
[/QUOTE]
I’ll admit I’m reading this through “I’m pretty sure you’re scum”-colored glasses, but I see you wanting to string up story as one of the better indications that he is who he says he is.

Make no bones about it – an anti-town storyteller would be one of the most dangerous things things going, and when I look at his claims without bias, I get a bit nervous. But it just seems to me that we’re getting pretty damn close to lynch-or-lose, so lynching what may be one of our major power roles “for info” just doesn’t wash by me.

1076

[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
Either that, or one isn’t told when they’re bitten. I’m wondering if that might be the case, and a person only knows who Dracula is, so they can’t work as an entire team. Otherwise, when Dracula dies, everybody would be able to confirm each other as town.

P.S. Koldanar, we’ve already got a wolf. :stuck_out_tongue:
[/QUOTE]

Not till that rope is around that neck ! :stuck_out_tongue:

1077

OK. Yesterday’s vote. At #948, the last official vote count of the Day, the count was as follows:

WFTomba / mhaye v.2.0 (3) - BLAM, Darth, Nanook
Diggitcamara (1) - ShadowFacts
ShadowFacts (1) - storyteller

Fairly soon thereafter, Freudian Slit made it 4 for WFTomba.

By Day’s end, the count looked like this (count is unofficial, but I checked it twice so hopefully it’s accurate)

Freudian Slit (5) - Santo Rugger, Koldanar, ShadowFacts, mhaye v. 2.0, Pollux Oil
WFTomba / mhaye v.2.0 (4) - BLAM, Darth, Nanook, Freudian
ShadowFacts (2) - storyteller, Hal Briston
Pollux Oil (1) - Fretful Porpentine
Hal Briston (1) - Diggitcamara

So both major targets yesterDay - Freudian and mhaye v. 2.0 - were Townies.

So the narrative of yesterDay is: tiny bandwagon develops on Townie. After a short while, a slightly larger bandwagon develops on another Townie.

I know - and toMorrow the rest of you will, too - that one contributor to the latter bandwagon is definitely a Wolf. Another is definitely not. At least one of the remaining two - Koldanar or Santo - is definitely Town as well, unless there are two Alpha Wolves (which is spectacularly unlikely). Pollux is altogether unconfirmed in any direction.

It is tempting to look at those five voters for Freudian and think “scum action,” because of how quickly the vote swing to her happened. But that doesn’t feel logical, because why would the scum try to artificially effect any kind of vote swing? Given that one of their own wasn’t in any real trouble - I had tried and failed to get any real traction with my vote for Shadow, and no one else was in any real danger - why would the scum bother making late (and therefore potentially suspicious) Freudian votes? Particularly since Shadow did swing over to the Freudian wagon, and the scum would likely be inclined to spread out their votes somewhat.

So what happened, and why? Later tonight or tomorrow morning I’ll pull together a vote summary, but I wanted to get the situation out there and see if anyone has any thoughts.

On this, or anything, by the way. The Day ends in a bit over 48 hours and I haven’t been counting posts, but a mass modkill would really be no fun.

1078

Welp. I looked back over ShadowFacts’ posts and storyteller’s case on ShadowFacts. It seems (and correct me if I’m wrong) that storyteller’s main points on ShadowFacts is that he

  • Called sachertorte suspicious for “smudging” storyteller and then proceeded to do the exact same thing to sachertorte.
  • Initially said he was suspicious of sachertorte but over the course of the Day switched to defending him.

Rereading ShadowFacts’ posts, I see where storyteller is coming from in his suspicion of him. I’m not entirely convinced one way or another that ShadowFacts is particularly scummy from his behavior, but from the case that storyteller laid out I can believe that storyteller would investigate ShadowFacts if he is a detective. Especially since several others have been suspicious of Shadow as well.

Before the accusation of him being a Wolf, I was going to be on ShadowFacts’ side of the idea that we should seriously contemplate lynching storyteller toDay. In fact, I thought it would be a good idea to lynch him yesterDay, but by the time I got time to really give my attention to the game it was too late in the Day and most people seemed to be expressing the sentiment of letting storyteller live under the assumption “if he’s scum eventually we’ll catch him doing something.”

Now, I suppose, the point is moot because we’ll get information one way or another via ShadowFacts’ lynch. Either Shadow is a wolf, and there’s a good chance (but not 100%) storyteller really is our constable, or Shadow is town and we know that storyteller is a liar.

1079

(I think the fact that the boards collapsed and had to be taken offline - even for a few minutes - just to stop me from posting this, proves that the hamsters are a Werewolf collective.)

I’ve been doing some thinking about possible scenarios following Today’s lynch.

Basically, if we don’t lynch Shadowfacts we have to lynch Storyteller. The consequences of an erroneous lynch if Storyteller swings is much worse for Townies than if Shadowfacts turns out to be town. In either case, we lose three Townspeople to one Werewolf over the next two Days and Nights, but if Storyteller is the Constable the wound is far worse than if he’s faking it.

Vote Shadowfacts.

I’m still worried; the worst case is that lynching Shadowfacts ends the game with a victory for the Wolves. This requires that (i)Storyteller is in fact a Werewolf, and (ii) there is no Dracula.

Once we learn what Shadowfact’s death reveals we can look closer at people who might have associated themselves with him, and trace down the rest of the Werewolves.

1080

[QUOTE=MHaye]
Basically, if we don’t lynch Shadowfacts we have to lynch Storyteller. The consequences of an erroneous lynch if Storyteller swings is much worse for Townies than if Shadowfacts turns out to be town. In either case, we lose three Townspeople to one Werewolf over the next two Days and Nights, but if Storyteller is the Constable the wound is far worse than if he’s faking it.
[/QUOTE]

We could lose up to four Townspeople if Blam doesn’t come in to post soon. I think he’s the only one that hasn’t weighed in at all. Does anybody have a Blam signal? Somebody could always start talking about the probabilities about whether story is telling the truth or not. :stuck_out_tongue: