So, BlaM’s a Townperson?
Well, if storyteller’s not the Constable we are screwed.
But that would depend on
- Us having no Constable at all (a weird setup to be sure, but possible nonetheless)
- Having a Constable who is fast asleep–surely (s)he would realize that a counterclaim would need to come right now
And possibility 1 seems far-fetched. After all, storyteller-the-Wolf would pretty much need to know that we don’t have a Constable from the start. I guess it’s possible… but not very likely.
He could be. He could also be a wolf. He could also be Dracula. Whatever he is, he’ll get modkilled if he doesn’t post.
Ahh, could be. That’s what I get for trying to play gotcha ya half an hour after taking a sleeping pill.
Two things worry me right now. Number one…only Story has claimed. At least, in my past games, we always have a history of forcing a few claims by this point. Are the mods gastards, and making it vanilla vs. wolf straight up, and just feeding us noise to distract us?
Two, if there IS a Dracula, we could be in very bad shape. Assuming 100% success on targets for a vampire (and we haven’t seen any extra deaths at night) we could be up to 4 vampires. Let us assume if there is a Dracula, there are 3 wolves (anyone better than I at the JSexton formula chime in here). This means our range could be (Town - Wolf - Vampires) 7-3-1 to 4-3-4. Of course, Dracula being that good is a big assumption anyway…so lets assume the bites only just started on night 3? 6-3-2 right now, as it stands. So, one more mislynch in this situation and town is no longer the majority. Ugh, this assumes so many things though, and is such a guess at what the mods are thinking.
I’m going to post a bit of analysis on people after lunch…what I would like to do after the Shadow lynch.
And that’s one of the biggest pro-town indicators going for storyteller at the moment. I don’t want to even try and comprehend what would be going on behind the scenes if either of those choices were the case.
Do not open this present until Christmas!
So, the condemned man is back for one final post before the gallows. Feel free not to bother to read this until after my lynch – you won’t believe me until then anyway. But I want to get my thoughts on record for you to come back to once you know that I am Town and will trust what I have to say. I’m going to be AFK tomorrow celebrating my anniversary, so I’m doing it today. Don’t bother trying to argue with me, I’m not going to respond – this is an info dump designed for town to look back at toMorrow. And while just because I am town, does not mean I am right, I hope you will read my thoughts fully and carefully and use them to your advantage.
Now, I know that storyteller is telling a tall one, and thus he is a Wolf. So I know what the next sequence will be:
- I get lynched and am revealed as a Townsperson.
- Some wailing and gnashing of teeth.
- story gets lynched the next Day.
That’s all well and good. The question is, who to lynch next. I strongly suspect that after that sequence, Town will be in lynch or lose, so it’s critical to get it right. (Actually, to be honest, I think we’re completely screwed, but stiff upper lip, never surrender and all that.) Given that there has been no counterclaim by a Constable, I can only assume that there is none. Yes, get that through your heads: no Constable will be riding to your rescue to reveal the scum – its up to YOU to figure it out. I am also strongly suspecting now that this is truly a vanilla game, i.e. town vs. wolves, no power roles, no masons, no nothing. I hope I’m wrong, but it’s best to proceed as if that is the case. I suggest viewing all roleclaims with great suspicion, and question the claimer intensely.
So, after story and I are dead, this is who will be left:
- Koldanar
- Hal Briston
- Fretful Porpentine
- Nanook of the North Shore
- Pollux Oil
- Blaster Master
- MHaye
- Santo Rugger
- DiggitCamara
One of those will get nightkilled, but we have no way of knowing who that will be at this point. That will leave 8 players, likely 5 Town, 3 Wolves (or maybe 4 Town, 3 Wolves, 1 Dracula, but I think Dracula is unlikely at this point). I think it’s possible that if there really are no town power roles, there would only be 2 Wolves left, which would give us one more mistake to make. I hope that’s true, but wouldn’t count on it.
The Suspects
**Blaster Master: **Blaster has been on my list since Day Two. This post (680) , where he says he’s going to vote for sachertorte because he said he would the Day before bothered me, as I said in this reply . (He also throws in a little Hal Briston defense, it should be noted). In retrospect, his accusations against OAOW were not only crap, but the intensity with which he defended them was also interesting. He absolutely would not even consider the idea that he was wrong. That conflicts with his statement in 857 , where he says his MO is to question aggressively, then reconsider based on that interaction. As I mention here in post 863 , the problem with that is that he has shown NO willingness to actually listen to those he is attacking. Until, that is, I eat him for lunch on Day Three when he goes after me. Starting with post 903, he tries hard to make me look bad with regard to questioning storyteller, but I don’t have any of it, and he has to back down, at post 921 – there’s too much to link to here, please read the sequence. After that, he mostly disappears from the game, and storyteller starts coming after me. I don’t think this is coincidence. Also, in the last game I played with Blaster, we were both Town and both prolific posters. After the first Day, Blaster has barely been playing this one (by his usual standards, at least). I’m not sure he even got a vote in yesterday. One last thing is post 805 at the end of Day 2, which is just bizarre. I questioned him about it here , but never got any reply. In my mind, Blaster is almost certainly scum.
**DiggitCamara: **I’ve had a lot to say about Diggit this game, and I remain mostly convinced that he is scum. Please see the following posts: 691 & 928 . There are others, but those are goods representatives. Also note that storyteller defended Diggit shortly after I attacked him on Day Three, and used my case against Diggit to sow suspicion against me, leading to my lynch. I don’t think this was a coincidence. Recently he’s been playing the “if storyteller was a Wolf, why didn’t this happen, or that happen” card. In my mind, Diggit is also almost certainly scum.
Hal Briston: This one is a little tougher in some respects for me. As everyone knows by how much I harp about it, lurkers piss me off. Hal Briston’s lurking pisses me off even more because he seems to get a pass from it (“Oh, that’s just how Hal plays” etc.). Just because he’s lurked in the past doesn’t mean he should get a pass for it, dammit! But I’ve tried hard not to let that unduly color my impressions of Hal this game. Nevertheless, his lurking has seemed like scummy lurking to me rather than just low participation. His vote for OAOW on Day One was classic scummy bandwagon jumping – not only designed to be completely unaccountable, but also throwing in the “oh, I just made a huge post but the board ate it” excuse, as well as the “I’ll be back to post more later,” then not following through. (I originally mentioned this in my OAOW vote review in post 622 ). Despite his low participation, he’s always hanging around at the end of the Days, following how things are going. This in an of itself is not suspicious, as we are all interested how things will go, but given how little he’s around the rest of the time, certainly suggests scum hanging around making sure things go their way. His accusation of “tag-teaming” between me and Nanook was ridiculous and beyond thin when he posted it in post 719 (read the responses in post 720 and 721), but he then carries that same flimsy tripe through to vote for me YesterDay in post 962 . Look at that vote! Apparently he couldn’t find anything else in all the content since 719 that was more scummy than the supposed tag-teaming. Ludicrous. I believe that vote was a total reach, and designed to help set me up for the fall today (note how it reinforces story’s vote, even though I wasn’t in much actual danger at the time; also note, please, that again he has excuses for lurking and again he claims he’s going to post more, but all we get are a couple of one or two sentence posts to follow – just enough to not get subbed out.). I was slightly less certain of this one than the other two due to my inclination against lurkers, but after doing this research, I am more certain than ever that he’s scum.
In terms of the rest, Santo was pinging me a bit, but the way he’s latched so obviously onto story’s scum reading of me makes me think he is probably town (albeit lazy town). Also, I suspect that storyteller gave true “readings” of Town for his investigations until now, in case we decided to lynch one to test him. That leads to WIFOM, of course, though. **Pollux Oil **has been on my probable town list due to his well thought out posts, although I haven’t spent a lot of time on him. Fretful I have no read on either way. Nanook struck me as town early in the game, but has been pretty passive lately, and the needle was beginning to swing the other way, but I’ve got no evidence, so I’m neutral on him. I can’t even remember who MHaye is now, so I’ve got nothing there. And Koldanar was on my likely town list, and again I suspect story gave a true reading there, but I have nothing to back that up.
I hope you find this post helpful after I am gone. I go to the gallows knowing that I have played hard and done everything I can to help town win, even though the results of my efforts to date have been…meager, to be nice about it. Good luck, Cecilvania!!
Yea, us not having an investigator is bad mojo.
So we’ve gone over the possible scenarioes…I won’t rehash them. What I do want to put out there is what I plan to do when we get our results from today.
-
If Shadow comes up scum. I’m not wholly giving story a free pass, because we could be in a situation where town does not have any power roles at all, and story is a lucky scum to have claimed one. But, hoping the mods didn’t do that to us, I’d be willing to trust to a point. At this point, we will hopefully have an alive story the next day, so that we can get a little more insight.
-
If Shadow comes up town, most definitely story has to go. We place our votes, and then discuss anyone story may have been in collusion with. My confirmation and Rugger’s confirmations go out the window, and we’re left with 0 alive confirmed townies, again.
Now, hopefully we don’t lose anyone to under posting this Day / Night cycle, and therefore dont’ lose any information. Looking back, I scrapped my list, and I’ll probably start that over based on what happens tomorrow. The situation looks something like :
Not wolves?
Me
Santo
Story
Unknowns :
Blaster
Fretful
Hal
Nanook
MCubed(Darth)
Pollux
Diggit
Now, the odds, assuming Shadow is scum, story is town, me and santo are not alpha, should go from 2/6 to 3/6 for the remaining scum…and the possibility of 1/9 to 3/9 for vampires (this assumes a successful night kill, so one more person less). I’ll probably go with these assumptions as I look at the unknown players and their actions.
26 hours to go and right now, if no one posts anything in the next 26 hours, we have 3 players who are going to eat it.
Also, anyone hear anything from BlaM? He hasn’t been around on the offboard game either so I am guessing it is RL catching up to him. But it is looking almost certain that he won’t survive until morning in this one.
Now, if Shadow is town, I have a new listing :
Town :
Me
Unknowns :
Santo (though probably town)
everyone else.
Like I said above, that leaves us with nothing confirmed. I would hope that at this point if anyone but me lists me as town, it’s because of my actions in the past too and not just hoping a scummy story pointed out townies. We would lose 3 (shadow lynch and 2 night kills) to story, putting us at something like 5 town to 2 scum left. I would hope that no power roles for us means 3 wolves in this setup.
<snerk> Yes, imagine that, pointing out a proven scum tactic and hanging votes on it. How silly can one get?
One thing I noticed about ShadowFacts “This is the way it will go” post.
He misstated the number of players alive the second Dawn from now, because he completely neglected the fact that there will be a Nightkill Tonight. His projected numbers don’t need to be taken with the proverbial grain of salt, but thrown out and redone from scratch.
Assuming (for the purpose of this argument) that Shadowfacts is a Townsperson, at the dawn of day 6 we will have 7 players remaining. If we started with five Werewolves and no Dracula this is game over - in fact, the game ends (for all intents and purposes) the moment SF is revealed to be a Townsperson, if there are 5 Wolves and no Dracula. (The game has to continue if it’s 4 Town / 5 Wolves / Dracula).
Shadowfacts’ error looks less significant on close examination than it did when I first caught it, because it doesn’t actually change the number of lynches we have to play with. I was worried it might lead the Townsfolk to thinking we had an extra lynch to play with than we actually do.
Onward and upward. I really need to reread the offboard game right now. Get a handle on the crazy.
You’re right, sorry about that.
Vote counts (Non fluff, my own interpretation) :
Santo : 8
Myself : 7
Diggit : 6
Shadow : 6
Mhaye: 5
Story : 4
Pollux : 4
Fretful : 3
Hal : 3
Blam : NULL.
Such a damn quiet day…how are we going to get any figuring done in the future?
EBWOP : Nanook also has 4
Sorry I didn’t get here today, work was nuts. The major project I’ve been working on is in the process of ending, and there’s a lot of last minute rushing to get things finished. I will probably not be around much the rest of this week either, though I will check in at night to keep an eye on things.
BTW it looks like Kold counts fluff more or less like I do as his numbers match mine almost exactly. Fretful, Hal, and BlaM are on my death list for toNight.
And Hal, there are no zombies in this game, so you don’t get a second chance here.
Vote count next post.
(Almost at the) bottom of the page vote count:
Day 4 vote count as of post 1097
6- ShadowFacts - storyteller, Santo Rugger, Diggit, Fretful, Hal Briston, Nanook, MHaye
Not Voting: Koldanar, Pollux Oil, Blaster Master, ShadowFacts
Apologies for my non-participation this Day – I have been scoring AP exams from 8:15 to 5, so I haven’t had a lot of time to post, but I have been reading.
Don’t forget that there COULD, theoretically, be two Constables in this game, so a counterclaim doesn’t actually prove anything. Granted, if there’s a Constable who isn’t storyteller, he or she would still have to be asleep not to have investigated storyteller by now and exposed him if he’s a Wolf, so your point pretty much stands.
Where does Nanook fit in on this list?
It occurred to me when I first read this that scum are having it pretty easy this game. We’ve been very quiet as a group, and we’ve been lynching the shit out of Townies. Since the scum haven’t really had a compelling need to gently guide lynches thus far, and won’t/can’t today, they don’t have too much of a reason to speak up. From the bottom part of that list, I wonder where the hell BlaM has been, and am tending to let **Pollux and Fretful **slide… they’re just not pinging me. Hal, what gives?