I doubt any scum are going to night kill you, honey.
I don’t think being overly paranoid is a scum trait.
So… in the morning, my wife, daughter, and I are leaving on vacation. It’s a driving-heavy trip, as our destinations are Pittsburgh, then Cleveland, then Toronto. I am pretty confident that we’ll have wireless Internet at every stop, but my participation will nonetheless be somewhat more limited in the coming week than usual.
I’ll think on things, though, and make sure I provide something at least moderately useful before I go in the morning.
Well I am down for a lynch in my personal order:
ONK
Cookies
Z
I still don’t have any faith in ONK secret power and hence is role. That and the fact that he claimed doc, then scot, then something like a hybrid doc/scot. Doesn’t sound kosher even a wee bit.
I have serious questions about Cookie as well. With so many investigative roles two town aligned night killers seems too powerful.
Oh well, I will remain consistent:
Vote ONK
And story not to pick but…
Sheesh NJ to P’burg to Cleveland. That sounds dubious at best. The only rdeeming town is Toronto, FCS.
No offense to the right coasters and seriouly FD aint no code here just a regional bias.
I presented myself poorly, so I think that a lot of people are justified in voting for me, but I still feel the need to apologize in advance for not defending myself well enough to keep us from wasting a lynch.
In any event, for the usual reasons, I’m going to
Vote Zsofia
<Color removed>
And then there are posts like these that create all sort of WIFOM type of arguments. But gotta go with my gut. Nothing personal ONK, by the way. If you are ever in SA (city, not country), ring me up and I’ll buy you a beverage, or ten, of your choice.
And if our general concensus is that we have a baddie in each scum group left we are looking at a perfect lynch of at least three more Days for town to cinch this.
Does anyone else get the feeling that we are doing a Bachman (aka King) Long Walk kind of thing? Seriously, the puppet master has got to be chuckling at this point. Pleo really is a Gastard.
And by the way, when does the next game start. 
Vote ONK
His claim has never really hit me as being true, but even if it is, he’s royally fouled up his protections for so long that he’s forfeited his right to live. Seriously, during the Night when peekercpa made that post about protecting me, had I not been pretty damn confident that he’s Town, I would have considered that a blaring scum tell. Who the hell is going to kill me? Hell, at this point I’d love to be in the Forbidden Thread and get spoilers, but unfortunately you guys are keeping me on life support. Can’t you pull the plug? I’m suffering here! Anyway, I digress. It was a bad, bad move to protect me, if he can even protect at all.
<Snipped and color removed>
But don’t you know that someone must remain to replenish the chafing dishes of this sumptuous buffet. Hang in there, we should get around to lynching you in the next Day or so.
Who’s going to kill you?
In Game 1, CIAS the Vampire decided that if his faction could not win, he’d try and help any other non-Town faction win. “Anything but Town” was his philosophy.
Protecting you is insurance against the Vampire in this game (a) still being alive and (b) deciding the same thing and killing you. In that case, the Vampire would have a certain degree of protection against being outed by investigation or deduction; he could hold the spectre of the Cabal winning over us.
The question then becomes one of risk management; do you protect against an unlikely but devastating occurrence, or a more likely occurrence with less debilitating consequences? Deciding on the former is perfectly reasonable, especially if the Town can weather the loss of the player who dies unprotected. Koldanar hasn’t produced a result in the last two Nights, and the Cabal are likely to keep blocking him because they can’t hide for long if both investigation and lynch remove people from the pool of unknowns. So I don’t consider it a disastrous decision, and certainly not one to lynch him for.
On the other hand I might still be willing to see him lynched. It depends on whether the best route is to lynch a claimed Scotsman or not.
More later.
Well, regarding Vampires, there was only one kill last night. We know we still have at least one Wolf. Cookies claimed to be blocked. If the vamp isn’t dead or Cookies, do we have any more options? IOW, we could just string Cookies up (do we really need a vig anymore?) and then lynch Omi with impunity.
Um. Since Kold be dead I don’t see either a lot of reveals or blocking headed his way.
And now the Cabal can block Cookies without running the risk of being outed by Koldanar. That is, if Cookies isn’t our last Cabalist to begin with. If ONK turns out to be telling the truth, she might be worth a looksee later.
** Vote ONK **
I had been leaning towards a town read on him all the way up until about the time where he claimed to have the town’s secret power, but pretty much everything he’s said after that has been a big 
:dubious: mess.
I’ve also dug back through the game for some nuggets from the past.
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9999978&postcount=1528
Backpeddaling
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9997406&postcount=1463
Trying to advance the idea that one of the killing roles had been killed, then quickly takes it back with the next post (1464). Could be seen as sowing underestimation of scum, imho.
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9994806&postcount=1448 and http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9994806&postcount=1449
Just from general tone and what he chooses to say, I have a really hard time swallowing him saying it with any other alignment other than scum.
There’s probably some others, as I’ve only gone through a few pages of his Game Room posts in recent months and he is quite prolific in his posting in this forum.
Who to lynch?
I’m still looking at the survivors of the “unknown pool” for my lynch candidate. I consider it quite likely that those four players contain 2 anti-Town players (±1) with one Werewolf and one either Cabal or Undead – whichever one NAF1138 turns out not to be. The other two are what they claim to be. So which one?
peekercpa?
Peeker is not my candidate of choice for today. Of the four, he’s my lowest pick for an anti-Town role unless three of the four players are nonTown, an eventuality that I consider unlikely at best. Also, his claim of Vicar is quite likely to be in the game, and whether he is Town or not we learn nothing immediately from lynching him; we have to wait until dusk of Day Nine to learn what he is.
DarkCookies?
DarkCookies is my pick of MostLikelyScum from the four candidates (unless, as above, there are three nonTown players in the four; in which case an extra Town killer is probably necessary for game balance and speeding up play) so I should probably vote for her. The possibility of her being a Vampire and claiming Vig to hide her killing role has been suggested quite often; what has not been pointed out is that it’s also a good cover for a killing Werewolf too. The downside of a DarkCookies lynch is, like lynching Peekercpa, that we have to wait a whole Day to find out if we were right or not.
A (claimed) Scotsperson?
Either one has the same big advantage; we gain instant feedback regarding the truth of their roleclaim. We know that if they die they’re antiTown; exactly what we learn a Day later. If they survive they are a confirmed Townsperson and move into the pool of trusted Townies.
Whichever one we lynch, if the player turns out to be a Townsperson then we’ve wasted a lynch and allowed the antiTown factions a breathing space, but that space is lessened if the player doesn’t die.
On reflection then I’m going to: -
vote DarkCookies.
She remains the player most likely to be anti-Town, given my analysis of the gamestate. However, I am not averse to lynching a claimed Scotsperson because the instant feedback and the survival of the condemned ameliorate the waste of a lynch. I’d rather lynch Zsofia over Omi right now though (that is subject to change should compelling evidence appear).
DarkCookies
It’s worth setting a “minimum number of replies to thread” parameter - at least, by now.
It turns out there are only three other threads with over 2,500 replies in the Game Room and they are all 2007 Mafia games. Number of replies and replies made in the last 6 months should leave you with only posts made in this thread; whoever you’re looking for.
If I was a wolf, do you think I would have claimed the Fluid kill? There are so many things that could go wrong with such a blatant lie, it really isn’t a smart play.
I’ve already discussed the holes in the Vampire-as-Vig theory. See the “convenience” debate with the scummy NAF.
And as for me being Cabal, claiming Vig would be a suicidal liability to take on. It is a liability even though I really am a Vig with a blocker mucking things up for me.
What could expose the lie?
At the point you claimed, Fluiddruid was not only dead, but had been revealed as a Werewolf; so you were in zero danger of having to suicide that Night.
The Detective was not going to find you out after you claimed. They have to investigate a player killed the previous Night, and Fluiddruid had died the Night before last. That assumes the Detective was still alive, something that seemed increasingly unlikely as no-one countering CIAS’s Day 1 claim had come forward, even a full Day (and one investigative result) after CIAS’s death.
The only active role that could expose the lie was the Seer, and if you were not a Vig that risk was the same for all anti-Town factions.
I’m not prepared to dismiss it out of hand like you try to. If you can come up with additional risks run by a Wolf in this position fake-claiming Vig, I’ll consider them, though.
I can’t really agree. I don’t think an increase in modkills would benefit the Town.
Eh?
That’s advice on how to use the forum search parameters, nothing to do with the game.
Sorry for any confusion.