yet again the slip was indicative of scum. im gettig imself squisd by a meteor can only be a good thing. One scum down, if 's telling the truth one scum faction down (of course there could still be more cabal out there yet), and we get him killed for free. We’d b in an even better position if not for te non voting mod killed townies :mad:
I would consider this a very bad idea. I think it is 99% likely that Nanook was a member of cabal. There is just no reason for a wolf or an undead to make the witches and cabal both desperate to out them. However, 3 cabal still seems like a very low number for this setup. My guess is that there still are cabal out there, they still can do a night kill, and they are hoping Nanook’s ploy accomplished just what you are suggesting.
I tend to agree. There will come a point where there is +EV in the witches coming out with their results. I trust them to determine when this is if their hand isn’t forced in the meantime by a prospective lync.
I agree with you about the fact there are still cabalist remaining in fact I think we could have started with as many as 6 but that 4-5 are more likely. Where I disagree is the night kill, even if they still have it available the witches can protect the outed witch (I think). Or to take it a step farther down the worst possible scenario, if there are still 3 cabalists remain and they have their night kill which the witches can’t protect against then one witch comes forward and gives us three names and is killed. This would put the cabal up one on the witches but we would have three names that are either confirmed town or confirmed scum and if our warlock has a brain then they could use their power on the witch so that a cabalist is taken out with the witch making it even.
Yay! New computer for me! Access restored! Woohoo!
And a ton of catching up to do! And the spreadsheet needs to be updated! And…ah, crap…looks like I’ll be in this thread for awhile…
Generally speaking, we want the detective to make a claim by day 4 or so, because we don’t want to risk losing the detective without getting any information from them. However, unless something absurd happens that won’t happen here. As long as one witch lives, we will have access to that information eventually. Unless the witches have information of immediate use that they can’t get out without making a reveal, they should hold tight. No reason to take any unnecessary risk. Keep in mind the reveal of one witch will help the scum figure out who the other two are.
If it is the same as the last Game, Secret powers trump normal powers, so if the Cabal have a Secret Power One-Shot NK, there is a good chance it will ignore the Witch protect and kill its intended victim.
Something to bear in mind.
I’ll let the Witches play their own game, however, three heads are better than the half a brain cell I seem to be playing with currently.
OK, let’s see if we can start to puzzle out a little of what’s happened to us so far. Please note: In this and all forthcoming analyses, I will be assuming what I already know to be true: that I am the Magician, am pro-Town, and redirected a kill attempt aimed at me onto NBC Night One. I realize that many will not be comfortable assuming this yet, but eventually I’ll die, and then my role will be confirmed and this analysis will become more useful. Come back here when I’m dead, if you’re not ready to trust me now.
Also, I’m leaving out the mod-kills, as they tell us nothing of value.
DAY ONE:
Darth Sensitive, Caballero is lynched
Comments: Of the seven voters who made up the lynch wagon for Darth, one was Darth himself. Three others were Town (two confirmed, and one me). One was a Wolf. Two - Mhaye and peekercpa - are unaccounted for, although peekercpa has claimed Vicar.
The alternate wagon was Oredigger, and his train included one Caballero and three unconfirmed. Our remaining certain scum - Diomedes and Nanook - avoided the situation altogether.
Further analysis of this vote is needed. Seems initially likely that of the three voters for Oredigger who are NOT NaturalBlondChap (CatinaSuit, ShadowFacts, Drain Bead), at least one will be scum - some scum will try to avoid controversy and vote away from the main action, but others will wade right in.
NIGHT ONE:
NaturalBlondChap, Caballero is Night killed, by pedescribe, Wolf, redirected through me.
brewha, Coroner, is Night killed, most likely by a Vampire (probably, per CiaS)
Santo Rugger, Witch Doctor, is Night killed, by…
Comments: Our understanding of this Night is going to be colored by Roosh’s and then Diggit’s alignments/sides. Assuming that Roosh is a non-killing role and Diggit is a Wolf, which I consider the most likely set of events, then Santo was probably killed by a Vampire. This fits with a best guess as to the outline of the game: two Vampires, one Wolf kill per Night, then a Vig or not a Vig, but certainly not a Vig killing on Night One.
Boozy Squid is almost certainly a Vampire, and therefore responsible for the death of either brewha or Santo (I’m guessing brewha, actually).
DAY TWO:
pedescribe, Wolf is lynched
Comments: None. This was a pretty straightforward lynch.
NIGHT TWO:
Roosh, Townie, is Night killed, by…
Comments: Now things start getting confusing. Cat has told us that Diggit killed Roosh. Diggit claimed Warlock. There are many possibilities here:
- Cat is telling the whole truth, Diggit is a Wolf and killed Roosh. That means that two Vampire kills failed to go through. Now here’s my issue: if the real Witches knew Nanook was lying, they certainly weren’t protecting him. The most obvious choice for protection was CatinaSuit, and certainly the absence of two Vampire kills on Night Three is explicable in the following terms: the Witches protected Cat, and at least one Vampire took a shot at Cat, which was blocked. The other Vampire either also targeted Cat, or was blocked by the Cabal (Nanook claims this to be the case).
Here’s the weird thing, though: assuming Cat is being truthful - why would a Vampire target a claimed Detective? The existence of a Detective is an active BOON to the Undead cause. The Detective can’t harm the Vampire, but can help whittle down the Wolf threat. Assume for a brief moment that Nanook is telling the truth in his death post about blocking Boozy - that means that some Vampire, not Boozy (who I think would target Cat just for his own amusement) targeted CatinaSuit). This proves very little, but it adds a bit to my growing concern about Cat.
-
Cat is telling the whole truth, Diggit is a Warlock as he claimed. This actually doesn’t fit very well. Boozy was blocked by the Cabal, the Wolves targeted a protected Cat, and the extra Vampire… what? Also targeted Roosh? Also targeted Cat, which still doesn’t make sense?
-
Cat is a Wolf, and so is Diggit. The Cabal blocks Boozy. Diggit, on behalf of the Wolves, kills Roosh, and Cat sells him out the next Day. Vamp2 does… what? Targets Cat? Still confused.
Hm. No matter how I suss this out, I can’t think of an explanation for this Night’s events that doesn’t demand a Vampire targeting CatinaSuit. Well, unless the Witches protected someone other than Cat. Which, I must say, would be a pretty significant thing. All right. Insufficient info.
DAY THREE
Boozahol Squid, PI, Vampire (probably) is lynched
Comments: This might be fertile ground for investigation. If Nanook is actually Cabal, then from the moment he announced his “Wolf” reading on Boozy the Wolves, at least, knew he was lying. Once Boozy copped to the kill, they knew he was a Vampire. They would have been eager to get Boozy lynched first, knowing that Nanook’s lynch would follow along presently, buying them (the Wolves) safety from the lynch for at least a few days. After I finish this monstrosity, my next step is to look at the reactions to Nanook’s announcement of his “investigation results,” and see if any PIS can be observed.
NIGHT THREE
hockey monkey, UNKNOWN is Night Killed by…
dotchan, UNKNOWN is Night Killed by (CiaS says Vamp2)
Comments: If CiaS is telling the truth, then the Wolves killed hockey monkey. Don’t ask me why.
DAY FOUR
DiggitCamara, UNKNOWN is lynched
Comments: None at this time.
I’m still not sure that information eventually is worth more then information now because it might be too late to act on it. But the witches have the information which means they can use it to lead us in the right direction or tell us if they want. I’ll drop the idea.
Now, I just need to come up with a new plan to figure out what’s going on.
The lynch was straightforward, but the beginning of it was not. Remember – we’re virtually assured to find scum on the list mentioned here.
S’matteroffact, let’s take a look at that list: Diomedes/Boozahol, cckerberos, Omi, OAOW and RoOsh.
Diomedes/Boozahol and RoOsh are both already dead, so I’m going to spend my time (errr…once I get caught up with everything else, that is), taking a good, hard look at you, cckerberos, Omi and OAOW.
Me, huh? Somehow I ended up on the list I wasn’t on.
That’s an interesting approach, there, Hal.
However, I agree with you on principle; cckerberos, Omi, and OaoW make a good starting point for investigation.
Sorry…I was a bit unclear there. The “you” there wasn’t “you”, as in storyteller, rather it was “I’m looking at the three of you”, addressing cckerberos, Omi and OAOW.
Brains?
What’s in that shot? Sounds interesting…I’ll try it as long as there’s no tequila!
Just want to warn you guys - I’m leaving town Saturday morning. I’ll be gone for a week. I hope to have some Internet access but am not sure how much I’ll be able to get. I’ll do my best to keep up.
Brains…
…of Jose Cuervo. Gotcha, sucker!
I understand your logic, but while I think your overall premise is sound I don’t think it’s very applicable to this particular case. pedescribe’s actions were so damning and his defense so laughable that it was obvious that he was going to go down. No scum was going to gain any town cred for bussing him.
And this is probably an unwise post without but the hey.
I have not had a chance to go back and read through some of the earlier days when our lynches seemed to not be pre-ordained. But I do seem to recall that there was considerable (some ?) suspicion on Omi. That’s where I am going to start.
Also, I agree with story that the idea of two necs is very remote. So I can see balance with two vamps and one nec. However, I don’t see how only three cabal gives that side an equal chance to prevail.
And on the witches, let them keep doing what they are doing unless they have something that would really break this open. At some point just a random shot is going to get one. I had not considered that they should just keep their yaps shut because of their communal knowledge. Not suggesting that they follow this course of action but acknowledging that it makes sense. Additionally, for all I know they could have only been getting readings on folks that have already turned up dead.
And on night two could a vamp have failed by targeting me? I post enough random B.S. That I might have struck to close to home. Now normally this would cause folks to raise their eyebrows but in my specific case not so much. And since I tend to be all over the board it’s not like I am a dog latched on to just one bone.
And I have to add that this the last delayed reveal game I will ever play in (until the next one of course :)). Trying to go back over days and days of post after complete information is received is very arduous. Especially since my internet access consists of primaily a blackberry.
Actually you want the tequilla. Stay away fromm the Mezqual. That’s the one with the worm in it. Kind of looks like a little brain, now that I think about it.
It’s all gone quiet in here.
Doesn’t anyone else want a drink?