Also, as pointed out, I might have screwed up and kept my vote on Hal, so for now:
unvote Hal Briston.
As for a new vote:
OF the unclaimed pool, I tend to lean town on **special ed **(as detailed previously) and on Natlaw, who has consistently been posting solid analytical posts, questioning people and generating info.
I’m less clear on everyone else. **Nanook’s **play has been pretty anti-town so far, and his posts today aren’t brimming over with reasons to keep him alive. I haven’t liked **MHaye’s **play for a while - as generally recognised, there’s more apologies for not posting than there are decent posts. I’m not sure how much the “slip” on **Hal **means though. There are three possibilities:
**MHaye **genuinely and mistakenly thought that **Hal **had claimed Alpha, and hit the 50/50 chance of being right for the wrong reason.
**MHaye **is a scum investigator who revealed perfect knowledge of **Hal’s **status
Hal, having (in this scenario) false-claimed vanilla while under pressure yesterDay, saw a chance to make **MHaye **look bad by taking his deception one step further.
While the last is the most outlandish scenario, I don’t see the first as being signficantly less likely than the second. I’ll still consider a vote for MHaye, but I want to give a new theory (yes, Cookies, *another *new theory!) an airing:
**Hawkeyeop **thought that his case against **Cookies **was supported by the fact that it was not gaining much traction. In other words, had she been town, scum would have chimed in alongside Hawkeyeop. As it turns out, lack of support for **Hawk **didn’t make **Cookies **scum. But **Natlaw’s **post 47today sheds some interesting new light on that.
Let’s remember the votes for **Cookies **on Days 2 and 3:
Cookies - hawkeyeop, (dotchan), (brewha), (Rapier42)
Cookies - (hawkeyeop), brewha
So in fact, **Hawk’s **case did get some backing. But why unvote on Day Two?As he points out, both **brewha **and **Rapier42 **moved their votes from **Cookies **to peeker. As discussed, there’s a big scum incentive to vote for the PFK/Vig; more so perhaps than to push Cookies. But what did they say? Here’s brewha:
Clearly, this comes after **Peeker’s **slip/confession. Later on, **brewha **follows up his giant WTF with a vote:
The key point here is that there isn’t an immediate switch of votes. **brewha **first unvotes **Cookies **while expressing suspicion of peeker, but only votes for peeker later on (after **Nanook **has made the first vote). I don’t like the unvote. When **brewha **voted Cookies, he put her joint leader with dotchan on 2 votes. When he unvoted, **dotchan **was on 4 and **Hawkeyeop **was on 3, and no-one else was following on Cookies. It smacks of someone abandoning an unpopular candidate. The hesitation in voting peeker also seems a bit odd. At first he was unsure if **peeker **was a Vig or SK - after **Nanook **voted, he jumped in. It looks like someone waiting for a bit of cover for a possible anti-town vote.
I was going to cover Rapier42, but on preview I’ve just seen this:
This is pure scum thinking. Not only is brewha acting like there are only two candidates, he’s also betraying a desire to align with town. Being dead hadn’t made Hawkeye right. This willingness to stop thinking and side with the known town player shows more concern with looking good than finding scum.
vote brewha