*The surviving students huddle in the living room. It has been a quiet night indeed. We hear the sound of crickets, and of a fire crackling in the fireplace.
There is a very long pause. No one says anything. Then, we hear the voice of MHAYE, chipper in the way that only a disembodied demon-possessed talking moose head can be.*
MHAYE
Come on, everybody! Let’s have some fun. Let’s sing a song.
(Sings)
We’re all in this together!
Once we know that we are,
We’re all stars, and we see that…
MACEY
(picking up the verse)
We’re all in this together!
MACEY & JSEXTON
(Close harmony)
And it shows, when we stand -
HAWKEYEOP
Hand in hand -
DOTCHAN
(from the back corner, very loud)
Make our dreams come true!
They all turn toward the source of this new voice. DOTCHAN is looking quite well, for someone with her throat slit from ear to ear.
Dotchan, an Alpha Redshirt, has been Night-killed and is mostly, but not entirely, dead.
Thus begins the Eighth Day, which will end, assuming no further mechanical disasters, on Friday afternoon at 1:00PM.
Why didn’t the scum take out someone from the confirmed pool? It’s to their disadvantage to reduce the unconfirmed, unless…
That’s odd. By all indication, those players are still separated. I wonder…
As of right now, I will not trust anything that Hawkeyeop or Dotchan have to say, and I suggest the rest of the town follow my lead. Remember what Cookies said? And now they’re singing. My god, they’re singing.
I’m not sure what to think of this… It would seem stupid for scum to post this a few hours before killing an Alpha (and sort of prove that the theory wasn’t that bad).
Ouch, but not a power role. I thought dotchan was semi confirmed due to BlaM, so that might be why they went after her. Possibly they were also trying to avoid another block last Night.
And third, the theory Alpha-turns-one-fifth-scum seems to hold when they are Night killed. We got five of them now and as you said… singing!!
Whether to trust them: I think yes, since Story explicitly said their win condition has not changed. Of course being vanilla, they don’t have any privileged information either.
MOSTLY DEAD
4. **dotchan **, Alpha Redshirt, (Vanilla)
6. JSexton, Evil Ash, (Scum Special)
7. Mhaye, Demon Moose, (Scum Investigator)
16. hawkeyeop, Alpha Redshirt (Vanilla)
17. macey, The Prince of Blades (Scum Strongman)
NO LONGER ALIVE
18. Pleonast, the Sorority Treasurer (Mason)
19. NAF1138, Vincent, the Dog Who Knows Things (Investigative)
20. Diggitcamara, The Inquisitive Fool (Special)
21. Thing Fish, The Religious Figure Having a Crisis of Faith (Investigative)
22. CometotheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, Ash (Special)
23. Chucara, Beta Redshirt (Vanilla)
24. Hal Briston, Alpha Redshirt (Vanilla)
25. bufftabby, The Skanky Vampire Demon (Scum Roleblocker)
26. peekercpa, Predator (Third-Party Serial Killer)
27. Blaster Master, Freddy Krueger (Third-Party Serial Killer)
The key thing is that there are now 5 1/5 alive people, meaning the scum have effectively pulled back an extra Day (or, from a pure numbers perspective, undone the last lynch). This raises the question: of our 10 unconfirmed, how many do we expect to be scum?
I was initially thinking 5 total, which would give us only one left. But I’m now wondering how many scum would be needed to balance out a game with two SKs. (There was some discussion earlier which tried to balance out the lower chances of SKs hitting scum with the higher cost of the death.) In some ways, I’m almost hoping there are more, because we’ll be at real needle in a haystack stuff if we’re only hunting one.
Finally, if the scum hadn’t known/guessed about killing Alphas before I posted my theory, I’m going to kick myself up the arse. But I think that’s unlikely.
Wait, how am I “clearly scum?” Because I’m at the top of a list that counts “votes for other scum” as the one non-scummy thing to do? The assumption that scum aren’t going to vote each other and almost never do is a pretty awful one. Would I be dumb enough to keep my hands cleaner than anyone else in the GAME as far as killing scum, if I were scum?
Yes, I know you had made a case against Hal and I linked those posts for contrast: Day Five you continually point out how you suspect him and now you say you were lax building a case against him. Since I was talking about how you were following confirmed, it looked like you were saying ‘I wasn’t making a case against Hal, just following confirmed town and that that let MHaye live another day is not my fault’. That is why I thought you confused him with MHaye, who you did a follow-confirmed-vote for.
Nope, on macey you were fourth, but you had the last vote for MHaye and JSexton. For the record, your vote moved Mhaye 4 - Nanook 2 - JSexton 2 and shortly after that MHaye voted for you. The other pushed JSexton 4 - amrussell 2 after which JSexton voted amrussell.
For scum to be bussing like that is high risk, but also high gain: if you are the last scum you need all the town credit to survive with town not at LyLo for a couple of Days.
You last three votes were with comments you were looking to vote like the confirmed. As said when the confirmed block vote idea was launched, don’t do that! Vote for who is you think is scummiest and post reasons why.
You got my vote for doing that and the contradiction of building a case against Hal, then saying you were lax about it.
I’ll try to dig it up. If I recall correctly, she said that she had found out that Hawkeyeop, the 1/5 townsperson, was bad for the town, or impeding the town win condition, or something like that, even though he didn’t mean to.
P.S. After playing this game for 7 and a bit Days, I have to say that I don’t like the days split up into separate threads on the Dope. I hope the next one doesn’t do it. No offense, story.
About LyLo and the mostly dead, it does effectively add extra scum. But I think the blocked kill Night Six averted a bigger danger.
There are now 5x0.2 mostly dead players. Assuming five Alpha total that gives two left and one scum:
D8: 11/2, D9: 9/2.2, D10: 7/2.4, D11: 5/2.4, D12: 3/2.4 (LyLo)
It doesn’t move LyLo closer (compared to no Alphas killed), but if LyLo had happened at 4/2.4, then town would have worse chances by needing to find one scum among four players instead of three.
It can still happen with another block (and that block won’t move LyLo back). Or if there is a Night with two kills, we would also be back at a four player LyLo on Day Eleven.
A vigilante seems unlikely though (unless he is really careful), so perhaps the ‘Thing Fish died because he investigated a Deadite’ is true.
So another block would hurts us now, unless there is a third as well.
Natlaw, can you explain a bit more clearly? I’m having a little trouble following how a block would hurt us. Are you saying that a Doc/roleblocker using his/her powers could be a bad thing?
OK, so Cookies says there’s someone who can get rid of the half-dead-things. I don’t like telling people what to do, but if you are out there, can we PLEASE get some sort of kill on one of them toDay? Don’t reveal yourself, but can you let us know you can do it? We’ve got a whole dead person hanging around now, and even if you can only banish one a Day, the scum can replace him/her at the rate of, it appears, one a Day.
At this point, I am almost sure that cookies was the 1/5-dead killer. I mean, it’s clear that she got the info night 5, or she would have mentioned it earlier. And why would she find out this tidbit, along with the fact that someone can kill them off? The most logical reason is that she herself gained that power night 4. Lastly, none of the 1/5 dead players have been exorcised yet, (I’m assuming that bufftabby evaporated for a different reason, such as the Predator using holy-water tipped spears or something) it’s pretty safe to assume that the 1/5 dead killer is dead.
If we have another block (and only one), we start Day Twelve at LyLo with four players instead of three, giving a bigger chance to lynch town.
Scum would count for 1 + 5x.02, so if town mislynches and scum successfully Night kills, it is 2-2 and a scum win.
So in that case there needs to be another block (can be Night Twelve) or there need to be only four mostly dead remaining after Night Twelve. That means only three one-fifth alive at the start of Night Twelve, in case scum kills an Alpha the following Night. But if Cookies was the killer, that might not happen.
All assuming one scum left and possibly more Alphas. Good news is that there are still four mislynches left :).
pede: peeker was dead Day Three when bufftabby was vanquished, so there was no holy-water tipped spears wielding Predator around anymore :(.
