Mafia: Evil Dead - DAY/NIGHT THREE

[NAF1138]

@Chucara

NAF: I’m not sure what you want me to claim. I’ve already said I am vanilla town.

The problem is that I don’t see how we can confirm both me and you. Let’s suppose that there is Gamma and Delta roles instead.

And let’s assume that I am Gamma then. In order to confirm us both, I’d have to post:
I am Gamma Redshirt

However, you would not be confirmed by stating that the above is true, as it would be easy to guess. Instead, I could write I am Delta redshirt, and when you posted back that the above is false, you would be (semi)confirmed, but not me…

I therefore propose that someone else (a mason or something) states which statement I should post and you should investigate (alpha or beta). This would confirm you (as much as possible), and it would have a 50% chance of confirming me. Since I am the only one who knows my alpha/beta status, it’d work.

It also requires that I am not lynched tonight.

Ah, I get what you are saying. Sorry, I got up a lot earlier today than I have in a week.

I will let someone else figure out the best way to work something like that, because I can’t see anything that would work that wouldn’t require you to die and waste another chance at haveing more confirmed town.

[Chucara]

I don’t mind dying, but it would obviously be even better to have another confirmed town. The first person to state either Alpha or Beta decides which I claim (it doesn’t matter that it could be scum - they won’t know my status).

If I get lynched yet am able to talk, I can confirm NAF.
If I get lynched and is not able to talk, NAF should investigate someone else
If I live, if I die, NAF is confirmed, and there is a 50% chance that I get confirmed.

Seems like fine odds to me - someone roll a dice and say A or B

[Trepa_Mayfield]

@Natlaw

dotchan, I just noticed you didn’t claim town, but went for full claim. Basically you’re telling scum you’re not a power role and you’re an Alpha, while you didn’t need to. I can understand why because you had some votes, but you could have waited till Today to see if it was really needed.
Sorry, I missed that. Also there are probably only 3 power roles left besides you and the masons, since Thing Fish was one, so 25% chance.

Where did you get those numbers from?

And Chuc? A.

[Chucara]

Thanks - for NAF to investigate:
I am Alpha Redshirt

[Natlaw]

@pedescribe

Where did you get those numbers from?

It was a correction of the following, the number of power roles alive is just guess by me, so probably wrong. Also we lynch one, so only 20 players next Night:

20 players - 3 vanilla - 3 masons - 3 scum = 11 player pool for power roles. Assume 3 power roles besides mason, Thing Fish and NAF: 3/11 ~= 27% chance for scum to get a power role.

[Zeriel]

I am vanilla town. And re-reading as fast as I can with six houseguests. =P Playing catch-up ball here.

[NAF1138]

:smack:

Ok, we got our three.

No one else claim vanilla, please!.

It will sort of undercut the whole deal.

[JSexton]

@Hoopy_Frood

You shouldn’t read anything into what I’ve said or done because there’s honestly nothing to read into it. Nothing I’ve said or done should have any bearing on what any of you do here.

OH, I see where you’re going with that. :taps nose: Nod’s as good as a wink to a blind bat, eh?

@Chucara

Anyway, if people are insisting on keeping their votes on me, maybe we can somehow use death to at least confirm NAF? I mean… with 50% chance of NAF being right or wrong about my alpha/beta status, it could either give NAF a good increase in credibility or catch him in a lie outright.

Of course, this assumes that NAF can get the answer before night begins and I die.

What I mean is:

• If you lynch me, you will learn that I am town
• I post the following two statements:
  “I am alpha redshirt”
  “I am beta redshirt”
• NAF investigates one of these, and posts the result before the end of day
• I confirm or deny the result
• I get lynch and my alignment is confirmed

The big problem is that it has a 50/50 chance of coming back FALSE. Are you saying you’re ok with getting lynched regardless of result? I don’t get that.

@Chucara

Then again… maybe I’ll be only half dead like hawkeye, so maybe it’ll all work out either way.

…you’re ok with being a walking zombie?

[Chucara]

JSexton: I had four votes when I initiated the plan, so I didn’t mind. And yes, at this point I think getting NAF confirmed is more important that a vanilla town surviving.

I’m more than willing to discuss the strategy in terms of whether it is better just get to confirmed, but I really don’t mind getting the shaft if it helps town. What I’m more worried about is that NAF will die tonight if we confirm him. (and he’s telling the truth)

[Chucara]

I think that we should just have NAF decide who he wants to investigate. He now has 3 vanillas to choose from, and he has a statement from me that can reasonably confirm him, and possibly me.

I doubt scum is going to continue to off NAF’s investigations - if they do, they’ll lose (to the best of my estimations). So at some point they’ll have to target NAF.

That being said, I think we need to get the discussion going again. And people should get some votes in. I will be forced to move my vote to DC unless some more votes start coming. (Me being town, I know that I am a bad lynch, and I think diggitcamara is a good candidate)

[Total_Lost]

@Chucara

I will be forced to move my vote to DC unless some more votes start coming. (Me being town, I know that I am a bad lynch, and I think diggitcamara is a good candidate)

I fail to see the logic in that statement. If you’re happy with your vote on Blaster Master why would you be “forced” to move it?
I don’t understand why you’re not voting for whoever you see as most scummy. If you think Diggitcamara is a good candicate… why would you feel that you are forced to vote him?

[Natlaw]

@amrussell

Here’s Diggit on the case for Chucara:

@DiggitCamara

I can’t answer for anyone else, but **NAF **(?) talked about a subtle fishing attempt on her(?) part.

I looked at her(?) posts from Day One and felt NAFwas spot on. And that’s why I voted for her(?).

My vote remains on **Chucara **because macey’s blatant fishing was proven to be fishing. And it makes **Chucara **a good candidate.

What kind of case is this? No quotes, no links. “Someone else said there was a case, and I agreed.”

That was his recap, his original case against Chucara (a while after NAF voted Chucara):

@DiggitCamara

I can’t say (s)he is really a strong candidate in my book, but for:

1. Scarce participation
2. Pretty ugly participation (in her/his posts (s)he speaks only about potential outing of masons and about “A” and “B” power outings)
   I’ll vote Chucara

Both DiggitCamara and Chucara have 11 posts in Day/Night One thread (though I think Chucara made more in the Night than Day). But there were about ten posters with less than Chucara.
Chucara gave sensible reasons when masons should claim (and did not agree with them claiming Day one).
Chucara did fish for a/b though, till pedescribe bit in Night One. If it is a mechanic the last PFK uses, Chucara could be that one. But a scum Diggit would only know he is not scum, so be OK to lynch him.

Now Chucara has claimed vanilla town with a random Alpha Beta and a lynch wish.
Very odd, especially since he had at that point four votes and DiggitCamara two (3-3 now). If he counted on it that we would not lynch a townie to confirm NAF, it buys him a day for the investigation and if it returns FALSE he would say “Correct I’m Beta, no need to lynch me”.

I’ll let my vote stay on Chucara for now. If we do not lynch him, but do investigate, it should be on “I’m vanilla town”, not with Alpha/Beta messing up the result.
Personally, I would investigate Zeriel, because dotchan and Chucara posted more to analyze than Zeriel did (five posts, no votes so far). So we could use more information about him, but that is choice.
Anyone thinks confirming vanilla is a good idea in principle (NAF seems to have). The extra claimed vanilla now kinda force us though.

[Natlaw]

That sentence in my last post should read: So we could use more information about him [Zeriel], that why he’s my choice [for investigation].

@Total_Lost

If you think Diggitcamara is a good candicate… why would you feel that you are forced to vote him?

Chucara is OK to die to confirm NAF, but will vote to prevent himself from being lynched?

[Almost_Human]

Sorry, I’ve got man 'flu so haven’t really been keeping up.

I’m not sure whether the same terms are used here as on other boards but certainly on one board I play in vanilla simply means a player without powers and though it’s generally used to describe town it can also be used to describe generic scum. If that’s the case here then the people who’ve already claimed should say they’re vanilla town if they haven’t already done so. I noticed DBI and chucara claimed Alpha Redshirt which is one of the possible vanilla town combinations. But what if there are vanilla Alpha and Beta Redshirt scum?

I may be way off base and probably am as I’m drugged up to the eyeballs, but if there are then NAF could well get a true read and inadvertently confirm scum as town. I think it’s far safer to simply claim town.

Oh, and I’m not accusing either of them of doing so, just pointing out a possibility.

I’ll make a vote early tomorrow when my head’s hopefully a bit clearer. I’m in the UK so it’ll be made long before Day ends.

[special_ed]

@Almost_Human

I noticed DBI and chucara claimed Alpha Redshirt which is one of the possible vanilla town combinations. But what if there are vanilla Alpha and Beta Redshirt scum?

I suppose it is possible to be redshirted scum. Interesting thought, I suppose to put the entire thing in one sentence by saying I’m Alpha/Beta redshirt Town"
I’m still confused. Why has **Chucara **put both statements (Alpha/Beta) and not indicated which one is true? It does seem to leave him open to say, “Yes, I’m the other.” so he’s only giving us a 50-50 chance of semi-confirming NAF if we lynch him?

I’m terribly confused. It seems more likely that a Scum or PFK Chucara has come upon a tactic to hopefully delay death. I find it extremely difficult to believe that this is a plot by Chucara AND NAF as Scum because that puts them both into too bright a spot light. It may be an odd tactic by a Scum Chucara, but it’s perhaps better than a fake role claim, since he was the vote leader and our Days are relatively short.

I’ll vote tomorrow. I’m leaning towards Chucara, but I’ll hold off for now. suppose I need to do a re-read for DC, but that’ll wait until after football.

[Hockey_Monkey]

Sorry for my absence today guys. Life has intervened. Any vote from me today will have to be a “me too” because I don’t have time to do an analysis. I feel like the case against Diggit is compelling, but I’d rather not vote at all since I haven’t contributed.

[storyteller0910]

Roughly 27 hours remaining until the lynch, and the vote count stands as follows:

Chucara (3) - Diggitcamara, NAF1138, Natlaw
Diggitcamara (3) - Millit the Frail, amrussell, pedescribe
dotchan (1) - total lost
Blaster Master (1) - Chucara
CometotheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (1) - hawkeyeop

[Natlaw]

Rereading Hawk/Cookies now we know Hawk is town, I couldn’t find much that is useful now. A lot depends what Cookies’ alignment is, so for future reference, since votes for peekercpa hide a lot:

If Cookies is town, I would expect scum to support Hawk.
-dotchans vote;
-brewha uses the same arguments as NAF against Cookies, amrussell and Natlaw (me). Votes Cookies, later switches it to peekercpa;
-Rapier42, thinks Hawks method a magic bag, but is still convinced by his argument. Votes Cookies, later switches to peekercpa.

If Cookies is scum, I would expect scum to protect him.
-JSexton argues against Hawk, votes him, but later unvotes because he decides they’re just arguing play styles. Does not vote for someone else;
-Almost Human votes for Hawk because he twisted his theory for scum benefit;
-Total Lost and Nanook both say they don’t see the case against Cookies and would vote Hawk, if there weren’t voting for dotchan resp. peekercpa;
-Hockey Monkey votes dotchan for voting Cookies, but does not mention Hawk case against Cookies. Later when the vote is dotchan 4, Hawk 3, Cookies 3, points out peeker’s claim. Again points it out when votes are at 4, 3, 2 though, but does not move her vote to peekercpa herself.

So if we don’t investigate to confirm vanilla, investigating Cookies would be worthwhile, but NAF would need to be confirmed to really depends on these points.

To clarify: the dark orange is to indicate who I would investigate if I was NAF. But I ain’t, so colored so he hopefully won’t miss these recommendations :).

Story, I thought Hawkeyeop couldn’t vote anymore?

[brewha]

@Almost_Human

If that’s the case here then the people who’ve already claimed should say they’re vanilla town if they haven’t already done so. I noticed DBI and chucara claimed Alpha Redshirt which is one of the possible vanilla town combinations. But what if there are vanilla Alpha and Beta Redshirt scum?

So, what if someone claims vanilla town, NAF investigates, gets a false, and we lynch our doctor?

You fishing for power roles there Almost Human?

[DiggitCamara]

Well, I’ve been thinking if I should say this but, since we have currently a tie in votes, threatening to spill over to my side, I’ll try at least to help clear myself.

The “knocking sounds” toDay? They’re due to three questions I asked Thing Fish toNight.

@Questions DiggitCamara asked Thing Fish

1. Did you manage to investigate successfully anyone during the one Night you had to use your power? (one knock for yes, two for no)
2. If you answered the last question with yes, what result did you get? (One for town, two for scum, three for PFK) However, if you did answer the last question with no, do you know who killed you (one knock for yes, two for no)
3. If you answered the first or the second question with yes: Did you interact directly with whoever you investigate (meaning: did you quote him/her in one of your answers and/or vote and/or challenge him/her?) (one knock for yes, two for no)

I really don’t think you guys should be voting for me.