Well fuck. Sorry for the grief, Hawk, and for wasting everyone else’s time on our mutual suspicions.
I am town.
I had a random unexpected loss of connectivity over new years. I’m JUST getting back, so I’ll be re-reading and posting soon. Sorry for flaking out.
Without wishing to seem unoriginal, I too lost internet connection yesterday. Happily, I’m now in work.
Man, that’s embarrassing. Thanks for cleaning up the numbers.
To business. **Hawk’s **death a) Does nothing to confirm NAF. b) Suggests that the scum have found a good defence (assuming **NAF **is town). They’re going to kill a townie every night (unless they randomly hit the last PFK) and thus “shrink the pool” in any case. So they lose nothing by killing whoever **NAF **has tested.
My first thought was that the answer was simple - **NAF **doesn’t reveal his results every Night. The advantages of this are a) we’re not giving anything away and b) it gives any protective role a better chance of guessing right. The downsides are a) **NAF **may feel tempted to defend somebody he’s cleared who comes under suspicion, thus outing them; b) he may get killed before he can reveal. That would be a pity.
So it looks like we’ve got two options: in one, **NAF **reveals every Night, and any doctor plays WIFOM with the scum between him/herself, **NAF **and the growing number of revealees. That way we get the information out for definite, but have a higher chance of the scum negating our advantage. In option two, **NAF **keeps schtum, the doctor’s WIFOM game is simplified to fewer options (and thus has a better chance of succeeding) and we *either *get *all *the information at a time we can use it, or we get none at all.
Perhaps somebody with a mathematical bent could try to run some numbers on which of these scenarios offers a better chance of success. But I suspect it comes down to people’s appetite for risk. In which case, it’s really down to **NAF **how he wants to play it.
Hmmm. I coulda sworn I did this upthread. Oh, well.
I am town.
Anyone else concerned that Hawkeye is now “Like Macey and Bufftabby”? OK, maybe everyone only mostly dies. But what about Peekercpa then? I don’t recall any mention of his somewhat aliveness.
Was Hawkeye special? Or was Peekercpa?
I thought about the idea to let a vanilla claim each day (dotchan already did, though no need to reveal Alpha/Beta) and have NAF confirm them.
Pro: scum has to choose between killing a confirmed vanilla or trying for a power role instead.
We also don’t accidentally confirm a mason, which pedescribe could confirm instead.
Con: It reduces the town pool scum have to find power roles in.
Again it preferably shouldn’t be someone we’re thinking of lynching, because a scum NAF cannot save a scum-to-be-lynched with a ‘let me investigate him first’. I think a power role claim of someone to be lynched should have priority for investigation though.
Anyway, to prevent staring blind on NAFs claim, I’ll go look to see if I can find scummy behavior now we know Hawkeyeop is town.
**Peeker **was PFK, (and from another franchise, to boot) so may not have the same resistance to death. On the other hand, **Pleo **seems to be all the way dead. It may be, given **Hawkeye’s **role, that this is our first clue to the Alpha/Beta mystery.
I went back and had a look at people’s interaction with Hawkeyeop; there’s some interesting stuff there (obviously, mostly centred around Cookies, but not entirely). However, someone else jumped out at me:
unvote dotchan
vote DiggitCamara
Working backwards: remember I pushed for recaps of cases for carry-over votes? Part of the reason was that I felt scum, having argued spuriously, would be less able to give a convincing recap. Here’s Diggit on the case for Chucara:
What kind of case is this? No quotes, no links. “Someone else said there was a case, and I agreed.”
Then there’s this, to macey on Day One, when he was attracting votes for questioning pede.
It’s all true. But, having seen the suspicious non-case-summary above, this now reads to me *a little *like one scum trying to get another to back down. Carefully explaining things, laying out the basics, highlighting the downside for scum, and emphasising that no-one (else) was questioning the claim.
Finally, there’s Diggit’s original pushing of pede himself (pre-claim), which, as was said at the time, doesn’t make a lot of sense.
All things considered, DiggitCamara comes over as rather scummy.
Ok, so I have been thinking about the whole scum killing people I investigate thing (sidenote to chucara, I didn’t investigate anyone last Night, I have a Day power. Skimming?)
So my thinking is this.
NO ONE ELSE CLAIM TO BE TOWN.
That’s first.
Second, if three people who have already claimed want to claim to be vanilla I will investigate that vanilla claim first. No one has to claim, and*** no more than 3 people should claim ***and it probably shouldn’t all be done on the same Day.
It will narrow the pool for scum to hunt for power roles in, but as the game goes on confirmed town is a lot more important than power roles.
I still think that the masons should mass claim at this point. Part of the reason I pushed for the mason claim last Night is that it upped the posibility that either Hawk or myself would survive.
Anyway. I am back, my house has been cleaned, but I am nervous about turning on my PC which was sitting in 2 inches of water. So I am going to take it to someone who is better with computers than I am and get them to see if anything is seriously damaged. So, no home PC for a while, though I can still follow the game on my phone, and post if absolutley necessary. Posting from my phone is a pain in the ass, but not impossible.
It looks like I’m next on the gallows, so I might as well claim vanilla as you’ll find out any way unless people change their minds. Do you want Alpha/Beta status as well?
Well, I’m not fully gone yet. Story, can you clarify for me what I can still participate means. Can I post strategy?
Sorry, I missed that it was a day power, I usually just assume night action as all games I’ve been in so far have been 99% night action. And yes, I still haven’t properly read the last half of day two.
Anyway, if people are insisting on keeping their votes on me, maybe we can somehow use death to at least confirm NAF? I mean… with 50% chance of NAF being right or wrong about my alpha/beta status, it could either give NAF a good increase in credibility or catch him in a lie outright.
Of course, this assumes that NAF can get the answer before night begins and I die.
What I mean is:
- If you lynch me, you will learn that I am town
- I post the following two statements:
“I am alpha redshirt”
“I am beta redshirt” - NAF investigates one of these, and posts the result before the end of day
- I confirm or deny the result
- I get lynch and my alignment is confirmed
This all relies on NAFs ability getting a response before end of day. I don’t know how day actions work normally.
Then again… maybe I’ll be only half dead like hawkeye, so maybe it’ll all work out either way.
Of course, I could also be scum trying to get NAF to waste an investigation. Obviously you won’t know until I’m dead.
And before all you scummers start voting for me, please have good reasons, I don’t want to make myself an easy vote for scum.
That won’t work, I won’t get my result until Night BUT I would be willing to unvote you if you made such a claim and we could find out what is what toNight.
In case you missed it, I claimed Alpha Vanilla (which, in retrospect, should probably be full-claimed as the exact role: I am an Alpha Redshirt) during the Night. Natlaw doubted my truthfulness (most uncool!), but I don’t exactly blame Natlaw since you guys have to take my word for it.
Any special reason you don’t want to investigate Blaster Master, Zeriel and Hal Briston? If Total Losts list is correct, only those three haven’t posted they’re town yet, so not sure what you want to achieve by this.
We already have dotchan (and now Chucara) claim vanilla, why do you want more in advance? You can only investigate one per day.
21 players - 3 vanilla - 3 masons - 3 scum = 12 player pool for power roles. Assume 4 power roles besides mason and NAF: 4/12 ~= 33% chance for scum to get a power roles.
3 masons + 3 vanilla + NAF = 1/7 x 1/7 ~= 2% chance doctor protects correctly (if we have any)
pedescribe + 1 confirmed town + NAF = 1/3 x 1/3 ~= 11% chance doctor protects right.
Oh, I hadn’t actually been keeping up with how many had claimed. Flooded apartment and all that. Nevermind. Everyone else can claim to be town please.
No one other than Dot and Chucara claim to be vanilla at this point, please.
Also, I wasn’t asking for it in advance.
Notice I said it shouldn’t all be done on the same Day. I was getting shit for giving people one option requests (I think the phrase was, “INAF is directing power roles”) so I am leaving my requests open ended.
My personal feeling is that we should have one claim per Day. But I don’t really care. The point was it shouldn’t be more than 3 people.
I already laid out a pretty strong case against
Chuc
DiggitCamara
who I’m fine with voting for. He’s likely to be scum, Chuc is likely to be 3rd party. I’d rather get scum than 3rd party during the day.
NAF: I’m not sure what you want me to claim. I’ve already said I am vanilla town.
The problem is that I don’t see how we can confirm both me and you. Let’s suppose that there is Gamma and Delta roles instead.
And let’s assume that I am Gamma then. In order to confirm us both, I’d have to post:
I am Gamma Redshirt
However, you would not be confirmed by stating that the above is true, as it would be easy to guess. Instead, I could write I am Delta redshirt, and when you posted back that the above is false, you would be (semi)confirmed, but not me…
I therefore propose that someone else (a mason or something) states which statement I should post and you should investigate (alpha or beta). This would confirm you (as much as possible), and it would have a 50% chance of confirming me. Since I am the only one who knows my alpha/beta status, it’d work.
It also requires that I am not lynched tonight.
dotchan, I just noticed you didn’t claim town, but went for full claim. Basically you’re telling scum you’re not a power role and you’re an Alpha, while you didn’t need to. I can understand why because you had some votes, but you could have waited till Today to see if it was really needed.
Sorry, I missed that. Also there are probably only 3 power roles left besides you and the masons, since Thing Fish was one, so 25% chance.