Hawk didn’t mention NAF or himself. We got 22 players now, three kills Day/Night is okay (scum no longer has their strongman either (double Night right?)). If the the second kill is from a non-compulsory vigilante, he can skip killing to delay LyLo.
So assuming three fully alive scum left, worst case it goes from Day Three 20/3.4, D4: 17/3.4, D5: 14/3.4, D6: 11/3.4, D8: 8/3.4, D9: 5/3.4 (LyLo)*.
So worst case Lynch or Lose is at Day Eight (even if there are four scum left) - is that how good our start was?
So if these numbers correct, if we want to do confirm lynch of NAF, Day six seems to be the safest Day (unless we get more/less Night Kills or kill scum).
*) If I continue with town lynching scum at LyLo (and only scum Night kill):
Day Nine: 4/2.6 (LyLo), D10: 3/1.8 (LyLo), D11: 2/5x0.2 town win?
Basically the one-fifth alive puts the minimum players at the last day at four instead of three, if there is no way to completely kill them off.