Without wishing to seem unoriginal, I too lost internet connection yesterday. Happily, I’m now in work.
Man, that’s embarrassing. Thanks for cleaning up the numbers.
To business. **Hawk’s **death a) Does nothing to confirm NAF. b) Suggests that the scum have found a good defence (assuming **NAF **is town). They’re going to kill a townie every night (unless they randomly hit the last PFK) and thus “shrink the pool” in any case. So they lose nothing by killing whoever **NAF **has tested.
My first thought was that the answer was simple - **NAF **doesn’t reveal his results every Night. The advantages of this are a) we’re not giving anything away and b) it gives any protective role a better chance of guessing right. The downsides are a) **NAF **may feel tempted to defend somebody he’s cleared who comes under suspicion, thus outing them; b) he may get killed before he can reveal. That would be a pity.
So it looks like we’ve got two options: in one, **NAF **reveals every Night, and any doctor plays WIFOM with the scum between him/herself, **NAF **and the growing number of revealees. That way we get the information out for definite, but have a higher chance of the scum negating our advantage. In option two, **NAF **keeps schtum, the doctor’s WIFOM game is simplified to fewer options (and thus has a better chance of succeeding) and we *either *get *all *the information at a time we can use it, or we get none at all.
Perhaps somebody with a mathematical bent could try to run some numbers on which of these scenarios offers a better chance of success. But I suspect it comes down to people’s appetite for risk. In which case, it’s really down to **NAF **how he wants to play it.