And you seem to have completely missed my point that, a Town investigator who actually manages to find a scum would want to get that information out to Town ASAP, ergo, be motivated to ‘waste’ their barn note on doing so while staying hidden to hopefully investigate some more. Which I said in direct response to your completely perplexing idea that there is no Town motivation you can think of.
At the end of day 1 we had 26 living players. Assuming our investigator isn’t also a mason or something, and that s/he was randomly choosing from among the other 25 players (and also that there’s only one SK or other “bad guy”):
3 scum/1 SK = 16%
4 scum/1 SK = 20%
5 scum/1 SK = 24%
6 scum/1 SK = 28%
+4% for each additional scum or third-party bad guy.
And if we’re assuming that the message is true, then I think we also have to assume that it was a random choice, since I can’t really see any motivation to investigate Stanlisaus at the end of Day 1 unless the investigator is Cookies. Nobody else seemed at all concerned with him.
Mahaloth, could you explain your thought process here, was your goal to break the tie?
If I’m the only one who’s convinced that choie is being spitefully sarcastic in this paragraph, I’ll be forced to admit that her post style is just rubbing me the wrong way.
We cross-posted when I apologised for yesterDay’s absence, I made my case on choie on D1 and saw it through to D2. And if you read D1 you’ll see that I did not simply suggest the idea and stand back, I supported the plan, participated and disagreed with the votes on Pizza based on the plan. Seriously weak vote here.
What did you mean by this then?
I think I was saying that there was something wrong with that message because it didn’t actually say much, there’s an SK, they need to survive to win, and so?
I hate waking up dead 
Spoilers please.
Did you really just try to out the Town investigator?
And you miss the point that it can’t be proven. Do you know that the given “investigation” isn’t the result of throwing spaghetti on the wall, seeing what sticks, or reading tea leaves?
Why are you convinced that the "investigation"is the truth?
Unfortunately, the only way I know to prove it is to lynch Stanislaus. Why do you seem convinced that it is not the truth? Do you propose that we just ignore it?
/in
And I meant add above,
Vote: Stanislaus
That’s the exact opposite of what I just said. I was saying that the odds of randomly hitting scum without any kind of motivation aren’t all that astronomical.
unless I’m completely overlooking something, there are only two possibilities of the barn message:
- town investigator got lucky, sharing the info anonymously
- scum fucking with us
obviously, the only way to find out which is to lynch Stanislaus - but knowing which doesn’t provide us any additional information, so I can’t condone lynching him simply on the existence of this message. if we lynch him and he flips town, anyone voting purely to find out if the barn message is true will immediately be very high on my radar.
are you being purposely obtuse or am I being accidentally so?
Housekeeping…
- Playerlist[spoiler]The living
- Suburban Plankton
- orthohedron
- fubbleskag
- Mahaloth
- Johnny Bravo
- Babale
- Astral Rejection
- Meeko
- USCDiver
- texcat
- RedSkeezix
- GuiriEnEspana
- DiggitCamara
- wombat99
- gnarlycharly
- stanislaus
- Dizzymrslizzy
- Cometothe…Cookies
- Lightfoot
- Choie
The dead
13. Askthepizzaguy, a Peasant Redshirt, lynched D1
24. Val Salva, a Peasant Redshirt, killed N1
3. Pleonast, a Town Vigilante, killed N1
26. Chucara, a Peasant Redshirt, lynched D2
15. Silver Jan, a Peasant Redshirt, killed N2
4. Enderw24, a Peasant Redshirt, killed N2
20. RyJae, a Peasant Redshirt, killed N2[/spoiler]2. Color coded vote counts:[spoiler]Day 1
Askthepizzaguy(12): choie(312), Texcat(334), SilverJan(351), JohnnyBravo(392), Ryjae(508), AstralRejection(514), orthohedron(524), USCDiver(544), Dizzymrslizzy(546), Pleonast(557), Chucara(615), SuburbanPlankton(629)
Chucara(9): Lightfoot(300), Texcat(334), Mahaloth(337), SilverJan(351), fubbleskag(361), orthohedron(434), wombat99(612), RedSkeezix(619), Pleonast(625)
Ryjae(6): GuiriEnEspana(220), Cookies(301), Askthepizzaguy(505), SuburbanPlankton(549), Pleonast(557), Chucara(559)
Babale(5): Stanislaus(236), SuburbanPlankton(369), gnarlycharly(373), wombat99(612), RedSkeezix(619)
orthohedron(3): DiggitCamara(244), Chucara(327), Askthepizzaguy(328)
JohnnyBravo(2): Askthepizzaguy(389), Mahaloth(407)
fubbleskag(2): Dizzymrslizzy(439), Meeko(493)
RedSkeezix(2): Askthepizzaguy(215), Enderw24(233)
GuiriEnEspana(2): choie(332), Texcat(583)
choie(1): GuiriEnEspana(220)
Mahaloth(1): wombat99(238)
Enderw24(1): RedSkeezix(245)
wombat99(1): Cookies(301)
Stanislaus(1): Cookies(301)
DiggitCamara(1): Texcat(334)
ValSalva(1): RyJae(466)
SilverJan(1): GuiriEnEspana(553)
Texcat(1): GuiriEnEspana(553)
Cookies(1): Meeko(472)
Day 2
Chucara(9): Texcat(733), DiggitCamara(804), Choie(805), LightFoot(835), Wombat99(851), USCDiver(852), Mahaloth(863), AstralRejection(891), Dizzy(918)
choie: guiri(712), Stanislaus(786), Enderw24(788), Mahaloth(799), Meeko(817), SuburbanPlankton(890)
texcat(4): guiri(712), Chucara(815), AstralRejection(874), SuburbanPlankton(894)
fubbleskag(3): DiggitCamara(836), Enderw24(846), AstralRejection(876)
guiri(3): choie(795), SilverJan(822), Wombat99(851)
Babale(2): Stanislaus(786), Wombat99(851)
Wombat99(2): fubbleaskag(882), JohnnyBravo(900)
Enderw24: Choie(905)
JohnnyBravo(1): Choie(867)
|LightFoot(1): RedSkeezix(864)
Mahaloth(1): RedSkeezix(864)
RedSkeezix(1): JohnnyBravo(866)
SilverJan: guiri(712)
Stanislaus(1): DarkCookies(816)
SuburbanPlankton(1): DiggitCamara(759)[/spoiler]
this is something like my 4th or 5th game.
[del]how does Suburban fit into this?[/del] ETA: nm, I see this was confusion cleared up in a later post.
I’m not sure how my questions can be perceived as fishing for information about any unclaimed masons - I’ve been asking the claimed mason about the reasoning behind their anonymous message followed by a claim because I’m still not 100% convinced at the veracity of the claim. I’m trying to understand -why- they went about it the way that they did. if there’s something about the game mechanic that I’m overlooking, I’d appreciate the enlightenment (feel free to wait until after the game if explaining it to me now would only make it worse)
I’m being purposely obtuse, Mahaloth was voting choie (#799) but then voted chucara (#863) to break the tie, WTF? I’m guessing both votes were simple bandwagon votes he gave little or no thought to as he was so unmoved by his own case on choie that he forgot it when voting chucara. But I’d like him to explain why he voted both lynch leaders…
is some type of ‘poisoner’ role common in a standard setup?
I’m going to re-place this vote for the time being: vote wombat99
I’m not comfortable voting for Stanislaus based on the barn message alone at this point but hope to review his post history and come to a decision based on the content alone - barring that, maybe there’s some type of game-theory-esque calculation one of you math wizzes can share
is it generally recommended that we let our investigator pick/choose their targets themselves, or discuss potential targets for them?
I’m not convinced, but I’ve voted for Stan for two days, and apparent investigation results that back up my opinion is not something that has caused me to change my mind.
Your ‘point’ applies to everything in the game of Mafia up until the moment that it is revealed by the Mod, ergo you have no point.
Maybe I’m misunderstanding your point then. Your little numbers list doesn’t make sense to me either. If we presume for a moment that the message is true AND written by our Town investigator, then we can subtract any third party players AND the Alpha since the investigator didn’t get those results. At this point we aren’t talking about the odds of finding a non-town (which you calculated), we are looking at the odds of finding a non-alpha Scum. So the probability becomes N-1/total players where N=total number of Scum (minus Alpha). Now the value of N is up for debate, but I think 4-6 is a reasonable guess at this point. So then your range of probabilities become 12-19%.
Math aside, what I understand to be your point is that either our investigator is Cookies (due to her documented suspicion of Stan) or some other random player who randomly chose a player name out of a hat?
I’ll try not to be too annoying in this post. For the record, I was not sarcastic when I wanted to see more of Meeko’s posts. He’s been referred to in every game I’ve played but I’ve never seen him in the wild. Now I’m getting a chance, so that’s cool.
BTW, for those who are part-amnesiacs like I am, here are some useful links. TexCat did this some time ago, but I thought I’d update it, as well as include final vote count posts:
[ul]
[li]The Official Rules[/li][li]The Player List (note: Chacura and I are missing from that list).[/li][li]The Barn Info[/li][li]Night Zero (And I realize all along I’ve been using the wrong terminology, calling this N1 and so on. Sorry.)[/li][li]Day 1 Starts[/li][li]Final Vote Count for Day 1 (Note: although there was a slight error in that Surburban’s vote on Pleo wasn’t counted, Suburban subsequently slipped in a last unvote of Pleo anyway, so the count ended up being right after all.)[/li][li]Day 1 Ends / Night 1 Starts[/li][li]Day 2 Starts / Night 1 Ends[/li][li]Final Vote Count for Day 2[/li][li]Day 2 Ends / Night 2 Starts[/li][li]Day 3 Starts / Night 2 Ends[/li][/ul]
Hope that helps, FWIW.
Well, as you mentioned later, confirming a Town player is hard if an Alpha can fake Towniness. A real investigator, assuming we have one (and honestly I totally forgot about that role, for God’s sake), can’t really confirm Town, but s/he can certainly confirm a Werewolf. Unless a Third Party player has some ability to fake being Scum, or to manipulate the investigator’s results in some way. That sounds really convoluted and unfair, and my limited knowledge doesn’t include any roles like that.
You’re right. We can’t. We can’t every prove / know anything until death comes for us, one way or another. (Wow, that sounds deep.) There are reasons I’m not thrilled with voting for Stanislaus even though I placed a prelim vote on him early, but there’s no point in my sharing them again. Nevertheless, it does seem that the only way to see if we have an investigator, and the only way to see if the investigator is the one who wrote on the board–assuming we have one–is by either lynching Stanislaus or seeing if he’s ever killed at Night. That seems like a dangerous proposition.
Obviously if Stanislaus has never pinged you in any way, shape or form, and you really feel he’s being railroaded, then I have to say it’s probably a bad idea to vote just to confirm a Barn message. On the other hand, it also serves to confirm the existance of… well, some pro-Town force, either an Investigator or a Third Party who for some reason is revealing roles. Maybe two reasons are enough. I don’t know, that’s for you to decide.
But let me ask you this, Meeko: what message can we ever believe from the Barn? I completely agree with you that taking it as legit without questioning it at all is madness. But then what do we do with messages that are there? Do we ignore them? What if you were the investigator and you found a Werewolf on one of your early Night searches, but obviously didn’t want to reveal yourself. How would you get this info across?
To reiterate: I do strongly think we shouldn’t act on this, when all is said and done, without examining everything about the message, and possible motivations thereof.
But–but-- (splutters) What else should go on the Barn? What, to you, is a good use of this real estate?
The only issue I have with the use of real estate, as you put it, is the same reason I’m on the fence, at least the one I’m willing to discuss again. It’s what others have mentioned: If this message is from the investigator, why just one investigation result? Was there no investigation on Night 1? Or did s/he get no result? And if so, why not mention that?
Can’t just be the 10-word limit. Hypothetical 2-result message: “Pleonast scans as Town; Stanislaus is Wolf but not Alpha.” Boom, ten words. Could even shorten it if necessary.
So what happened N1? Even if s/he was blocked, couldn’t that have been part of the message?
For now, because of this reason and other doubts I have, and because I do worry that this bandwagon is unstoppable and I think it needs to slow down a bit, I’m going to
unvote Stanislaus