Mafia Reunion Day 6

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81

Final analysis on Inner Stickler.

The thing that jumps out at me the most is D3#370. He says that he would be willing to lynch sachertorte once we’ve got some dead scum. This is after he’d begun to argue that we should not be going after cultists. In D5#10, he congratulates town on all the scum kills. His very next post is to drop a vote on me because I’ve been pressuring sachertorte about the potential danger of the cult. This is a straight-up contradiction of his earlier stance.

The other big thing is Inner Stickler’s refusal to actually build a case against me. This is extremely scummy, and makes me feel like he suspects it would be a bad idea to go on the record about me.

My final thought on Inner Stickler is this: he is either scum or a cultist. I think he may be a cultist because of how quick he has been to defend them, and for the comment about handshaking. I think he may be scum because of his votes toDay and yesterDay, and his refusal to go on the record with a case.

I still like my vote against Khameleon, but for the moment:

unvote
vote Inner Stickler

@Inner Stickler: are you a cultist and, if so, which number cultist are you?

82

Preemptive clarification:

I am (for now) willing to accept an uncontested cultist claim as evidence that a player is not scum, and that we do not currently need to lynch that player.

83

What do you remember?

Prof. Pepperwinkle picks up several votes over the course of the Day and becomes the vote leader.

Mafia players think to themselves, “Dunno who he is, but he’s not mafia. This is fine.”

Wolf players think to themselves, “Whoever the Prof is, he’s not a wolf. No sense rocking the boat.”

Prof. Pepperwinkle gets lynched. If there aren’t voting shenanigans approaching the end of the Day, it’s a good bet Town’s going to mislynch. This doesn’t work in reverse. If there are shenanigans, it’s anyone’s game.

84

I’ve definitely reached the paranoid stage of the game where three quarters the players ping me but only a third could be scum.

  1. Biotop - Biotop will never be a strong town lean for me. His scum game is strong and convincing. D4.480 and his next couple posts D4 smells faintly of blueberries, but it’s very faint and it could be my paranoia. Likewise, the D5.328 report of bufftabby, which comes off as kind of smudgy, but Biotop clearly isn’t trying to build a case against bufftabby.
  2. bufftabby - Biotop does a WoW on bufftabby D5.328, and I’m leaning very weakly scum on her, with my paranoia about Biotop providing counter weight to that assessment.
  3. Captain Klutz - I vacillate between thinking the switch claim suggests town and thinking it was scum fishing for a switch. Right now, I’m in the town camp.
  4. ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies - I don’t have a feeling on CttDSWHC. Dark Side has been in on every lynch, which is probably a good thing as DS isn’t avoiding creating a record.
  5. crys75 - Crys is almost positively third party, which is maybe why it feels like she’s playing a different game. Her recent low participation isn’t a good indicator, but sachertorte’s death and confirmation that the third party exists should give her breating room. I’m amazed we haven’t hit other cultists, and that causes me a little concern that it might be something like a serial killer team. (A single serial killer who’s goal is to be the last player would be impossibly difficult in a game this large. A duo or trio is more reasonable. Still, her self-outing suggests she’s above board.)
  6. [del]DaphneBlack[/del]Lakai 2 - Recent lack of activity is disheartening. My overall lean is pretty neutral.
  7. EnderW24 - Ender’s reaction to the third parties was weird (to put it mildly), but the way he came around feels like townie.
  8. Guiri -I’m cautious about guiri. He’s another that never gets beyond weak leans, but right now that lean is town.
  9. Hal Briston - Is barely playing.
  10. hawkeyeop - Pinged me hard early. Hawkeye was my first note this game, for posts that sounded like they were trying to sound town. I also gave him bad marks for smudging Hockey Monkey. In retrospect, I’m very weakly town on Hawkeye.
  11. HookerChemical - Town.
  12. Hoopy Frood - Decent town lean. HF was early to call out Hockey Monkey and scum hunting looks legitimate.
  13. Inner Stickler - I don’t have early impressions from Inner, but recent impressions aren’t good based on the vote on Johnny Bravo, which is overly reductive of Johnny’s position and pretty weak.
  14. Johnny Bravo - The last vote on Squid, which pretty much seals that JB isn’t a wolf. Beyond that, he’s perhaps my strongest town lean at this stage. JB pinged me early. So much so that I did a WoW and ended up talking myself down from the case. The majority of his posting since then leaves me with a town lean.
  15. Khameleon - I have a town lean on Khameleon based largely on TexCat’s Wow D4.294.
  16. Koldanar - I have a town lean. Kold’s discussion on D4 regarding 3P, serial killers, and sachertorte give me a moderate town lean…
  17. LightFoot - Fairly strong town lead, based mostly on gut. I have Angel noted as having the same lean, though I don’t know if it was a 40,000% lean.
  18. Mhaye - Mhaye has voted for a contender each day, so that’s good. His input is low and he doesn’t give me much to go on.
  19. Nanook of the North Shore - I think Nanook is making mountains out of molehills, most recently where Ender is involved. I completely get that Ender’s comments were weird, and posted about them myself, but even on D5 we’re having discussions about who breadcrumbed third party and how the damn switches work.
  20. Nesta - Weak townie lean. Low post count, but posts have had some meat.
  21. Plumpudding - Plum isn’t a wolf and I’m leaning town on him.
  22. [del]Precambrian mollusk[/del]Cygnus 42 - It’s hard to get a lean from non-participation, but I do know it’s not pro-town.
  23. Raventhief - I usually like raven’s efforts, but D5 was really weak from her. The post count is there, but there is an incredible amount of fluff. I’ve gone from neutral to weak scum lean on her recently.
  24. Scathach - The first voter with no color after her name. Her low activity level has been ongoing. IIRC, she said she was sick a couple Days ago. I hope she’s feeling better, but her activity level isn’t helping town at this point.
  25. sinjin - Here’s another that every once in a while minorly pings me. Weak scum lean.
  26. snfaulkner - SNF is one of my townier leans. Every once in a while he says something that gives me a minor ping, but his strong defense of Prof. P would have been very dangerous for scum with two teams around.
  27. Texcat - Her vote on Squid came during the heat of the runup to the double lynch and she’s not likely to be a wolf, but I can’t shake uneasy feelings about her. Her early game was pretty lurky, which can be one of her scum tells. (It’s not a 100% accurate tell by any means.) I also didn’t like her riding the Colby slip case because she should know better. Nesta quotes D5.394 as pinging her (nesta’s) scumdar, but I don’t get pinged from that one and Texcat has pinged me less recently. I find Hoopy’s assessment in D5.260 more compelling. Prof’s flip does put a hole in his theory of a “long-term bus” but the kernel of the case remains interesting.
  28. Total Lost - Guiri makes a decent case D5.429. I’m not as sold as cases on others, but her reaction to Squid being pressured was pingy.
  29. Zeriel - Paul does a good WoW on Zerial D5.379 that doesn’t leave me feeling good about Zeriel. His early posts on Angel were troubling, as was his early (pre-meltdown) posts on Idle. (Paul mentions getting a twinge when wondering why Captain Klutz was still alive. I got that twinge about Paul until this Morning.)

TexCat’s defense in D6.79 and Johnny Bravo’s case on Inner is enough to move Inner into the lead. My gut still says TexCat is scum or hostile third party, but I’m a little more confident in Inner.

vote Inner Stickler

85

And how would that be much different if ProfP were a wolf? Do you think the other 2 wolves would have rocked the boat? Or how would it be different if the Prof were our SK?

86

I think this game needs something - some shake up. Our most vocal players are gone, we have plenty of lurking happening, and there does seem to be some despair in this game.

87

I’ve never played in a game where every single time a scum player was in danger of being lynched the other scum players chose to bus that player. Using the magic of probability, I can tell you that a quiet lynch is far more likely to be a Townie than an SK.

88

Inner Stickler ignoring votes and case against him. Weak on foreign policy. Terrible ratings. Sad!

89

I did this for me, in large part because it’s helpful – to me. If anyone else find it helpful then great.

[spoiler]
[QUOTE=Vote Counting Robot]

Texcat (3): Hoopy Frood (24), Captain Klutz (26), [del]Plumpudding (31)[50][/del], Plumpudding (50)
Inner Stickler (3): Texcat (55), Johnny Bravo (81), HookerChemical (84)
Total (1): GuiriEnEspaña (40)
Johnny Bravo (1): Inner Stickler (32)
Khameleon (1): snfaulkner (6), [del]Johnny Bravo (10)[81][/del]
Zeriel (1): Biotop (65)
Tex… Hal? Foot? Frood? (0): [del]Plumpudding (50)[50][/del]
Scathach (0): [del]Plumpudding (50)[50][/del]
Biotop (0): [del]Plumpudding (50)[50][/del]
Captk (0): [del]TexCat (35)[55][/del]
Enderw24 (0): [del]Plumpudding (50)[50][/del]

[/QUOTE]

If you want, you can paste this as well:

Voting History:
post #6: snfaulkner voted Khameleon She’s not worried about dying at night, she’s in the consistently in the lower half of post counts indicating that she’s here but trying not to be noticed, claims that active lurking is a valid town tactic (which I would only agree with if it was power role), and her vote record is two missed votes, and the rest are bandwangony hop-ons for the leading town mislynches.
post #10: Johnny Bravo voted Khameleon There are certainly scum in that pool. I’m happy to go after my previous target for the time being.
post #24: Hoopy Frood voted Texcat - For all the reasons I’ve given the past two Days, including in my WoW.
post #26: Captain Klutz voted Texcat I like the cases that have been presented by Hoopy and nesta.
post #31: Plumpudding voted Texcat (no reason given – R)
post #32: Inner Stickler voted Johnny Bravo - for advocating cultist lynchings instead of scum lynchings on Day 5.
post #35: TexCat voted Captk - Looks to me like he’s trying to slip onto a wagon without being noticed. No case, just an easy “me too” vote.
post #40: GuiriEnEspaña voted Total - I’ll repeat my [vote] from yesterDay
post #50: Plumpudding unvoted Texcat -
post #50: Plumpudding voted Enderw24
post #50: Plumpudding unvoted Enderw24
post #50: Plumpudding voted Biotop
post #50: Plumpudding unvoted Biotop
post #50: Plumpudding voted Tex… Hal? Foot? Frood?
post #50: Plumpudding unvoted Tex… Hal? Foot? Frood?
post #50: Plumpudding voted Scathach
post #50: Plumpudding unvoted Scathach
post #50: Plumpudding voted Texcat
post #55: TexCat unvoted Captk
Post 55 – robot missed – Texcat voted Inner Stickler - And speaking of easy votes. I think you need to go back and look at exactly what JohnnyB was saying yesterday. And I have no clue how that piece of advice works in a multi-faction game. That looks like a scum excuse for voting for a townie ProfP to me. I
post #65: Biotop voted Zeriel I would like to be able to let this go, so Zeriel can you kindly explain why you voted for Professor Pepperwinkle on Day 4 when your stated reason for that vote had not occurred yet?
post #81: Johnny Bravo unvoted in order to
post #81: Johnny Bravo voted Inner Stickler The thing that jumps out at me the most is D3#370. He says that he would be willing to lynch sachertorte once we’ve got some dead scum. This is after he’d begun to argue that we should not be going after cultists. In D5#10, he congratulates town on all the scum kills. His very next post is to drop a vote on me because I’ve been pressuring sachertorte about the potential danger of the cult. This is a straight-up contradiction of his earlier stance.
The other big thing is Inner Stickler’s refusal to actually build a case against me. This is extremely scummy, and makes me feel like he suspects it would be a bad idea to go on the record about me.
My final thought on Inner Stickler is this: he is either scum or a cultist. I think he may be a cultist because of how quick he has been to defend them, and for the comment about handshaking. I think he may be scum because of his votes toDay and yesterDay, and his refusal to go on the record with a case.
post #84: HookerChemical voted Inner Stickler TexCat’s defense in D6.79 and Johnny Bravo’s case on Inner is enough to move Inner into the lead. My gut still says TexCat is scum or hostile third party, but I’m a little more confident in Inner.[/spoiler]

Right now I am going to** Vote Inner Stickler.** He (right?) may be a cultist, but I think there’s some scummy smoke there. I’m going to be re-reading some more, and trying to find some sort of pattern in all this chaos.

90

**Day 6 Vote Count

Innerstickler(4) - Texcat(55), johnnybravo(81), hookerchemical(84), raventhief(89)

Texcat(3) - Hoopy(24), CaptainKlutz(26), plumpudding(31)

Khameleon(1) - snfaulkner(6),

Johnnybravo(1) - innerstickler(32)

Totallost(1) - Guiri(40)

Zeriel(1) - Biotop(65)**

91

Re: My bolding: Well now that all the most jibberyjabberies are out, now’s the time to dig in!

92

I missed essentially 2 full days, but before that I was playing and am trying now to get back into it. Guiri’s right that I’m focusing on things that were important while I was playing but that’s only because I’m a little out of the loop.

If someone could point me to the texcat case that would be amazing? She seems to be the runaway lynch contender for the day.

93

Texcat is currently in second place. Please go look at my summary of my case on Inner Stickler, which is in posts 80 and 81.

94

Thanks for the answer, as you say, it’s plausible - I can see how the vote may not have felt good, but again the general take-away clearly wasn’t that an investigation might/probably didn’t happen - he wouldn’t have been lynched, and again you’re trusting players when you know there’s mafia, wolves, cultists who will twist and lie…

It’s a chain, they add up and become a case. How often is there a really strong reason against a scum? Usually it’s tone, some pings, some inconsistencies, weak vote reasoning, and combined it’s someone not acting quite right, hiding something, or pretending to be suspicious when they really don’t care.

/oog Brewha’s a she?

@Johnny Bravo, good catch on Inner’s change of approach, smells like cult though, right?

Total’s not been back. I like my case, Hooker’s mentioned it, nobody else? Assuming she’s still ill or the mods will resolve an absence, I support the case on Texcat. Texcat omits her interactions with jsgoddess, forgetting her suspicions of Bill until pressed, and her familiarity with Colby’s mis-speaking when defending herself.

Unvote
Vote Texcat

Still suspicious of Lightfoot, I’m constantly surprised to see her in the top posters but could not tell you a single case she’s made or who she suspects, not normal. Looking back 5th on Lakai, 14th on Idle, 4th, 7th and 13th on Prof.P… First on Pleo D2 though, accusing him of scum PIS - so again, there’s a case, ever so weak, but a case.

95

I read it, but nothing really leaped out at me tbh. Your summary of his d5 which you think is “especially bad” is:

And you say that it’s especially bad because of how he misrepresented sachertortes disagreement with you. What was the disagreement sach had with you? Because it’s not clear from the summary?

I was originally going to ask why you thought him having a poor case on you made him equally likely to be scum or cult but I think you’re saying that him defending sach (cultist) makes his bad case on you likely to be cult? Or at least that if he claimed cultist you’d find it credible?

96

I’m almost postive brewha is a he?

97

I don’t think this is horrible. There may be cases or causes that were abandoned a while back that we should revisit.

There are other things (like whether those claiming LUTHA are really scum faking or how the damn switches work) that are not worth revisiting.

98

I said it at start of Day today, but I’m genuinely surprised there hasn’t been a mass LUTHA claim given the willingness with which they have been accepted as non winstealing. Also, in case the fact that I keep going on about it confuses people, I’m town not LUTHA.

99

That bit does, yes. He’s decided to categorically ignore me, though, despite having a vote on me. That is scummy.

I’m glad you’re back and playing. I know there’s a lot to go back and read over, so I’ll summarize.

Sachertorte refused to entertain the notion that there was any circumstance in which a 3P cult could conceivably harm town. His stance was that there was no likely scenario in which the cult, as described, would ever throw the game to either scum team. I found this disingenuous and pushed him on it. That was the core of our argument, and why I ended up voting for him. I repeatedly, over multiple Days, said that I would drop the pressure on the cult if more of them would claim - that would have gone a long way towards easing any worries that they were scum running a con.

Inner’s first vote on me was with no explanation whatsoever. When I prodded him, he said it was for advocating a cultist lynch. As has been pointed out by more players than me, this was in no way a real representation of my argument. Votes like that are scummy.

Having a bad case is one thing, but Inner has said that he refuses to go back and do a read on me. He disagrees with one of my stances, says it’s scummy, and when I pressed him to back up his case with more details he told me that he would not. That is scummy.

I would find him more credible if he claimed cultist, yes. But again, he’s ignoring the votes on him. He’s ignoring requests for more information. He’s ignoring direct questions. All of that is scummy.

Plus, he’s edited at least five posts over the course of the game. I stopped counting after a while during my reread.

100

I’ll also point out that since the claimed cultists are the First and Second Deacons, the actual number of cultists is still unknown.

I think it’s very bad policy to let up pressure on a player because they might be a cultist.

Look at the way this is unfolding. People are intimating that Inner might be LUTHA and therefore maybe we shouldn’t vote for him. We’re basically inventing a way for scum to earn easy cred. Just defend potential cultists! That means they might be cultists themselves!

No, town policy needs to be this:

If a player is suspicious for any reason, we need to start measuring rope. LUTHA should feel free to claim and, just like masons, we can take action based on counterclaims or the lack thereof. Otherwise, we lynch. We absolutely should not make “seems like they’re defending the 3P players” an easy way to get away with scummy play.