16-11-9, now I think (Brewha, ToeJam, Crys)
Which means Crys won’t lynch - and it never looked she was going to anyway. We never close to that 17 vote threshold.
The question for the group is: who is scum (or scummier) ToeJam or Brewha? I suppose there is also the possibly of a double lynch on Brewha and ToeJam if enough single-vote or non-votes move.
Unvote
Vote toejam.
I still don’t like brewha’s lie, but i can see things wisdom of waiting to resolve that question. He may or may not survive the Night. I find toejam is be a bit more scummy right now.
Was wondering if I was the only person that saw this possibility.
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We have 36 votes at this point… if the Toejam train hadn’t picked up there was a very real chance Crys could have been lynched as well. I don’t see a 2nd lynch happening now.
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Bleached by me. You probably want to reformat this one.
So I’m caught up on D2… and I’m about to massive post on it. But before I do- I guess i need to address the Toejam Train that’s come up in the last 12 hours of Day 2.
What exactly is the case against me? Literally as I said before- I’ve not read day1, and I don’t think it’s fair 2 hours before the lynch to try to get me to read all of day 1 to figure out why you guys feel the need to lynch someone who wasn’t even there for most of the day.
-So an argument against me would be nice.
-Also, should i be lynched, I think it would be very useful to go back through my posts. I’ve noted being suspicious of **Sachetorte **today, and find it interesting that he’s one of the early ones (like midnight last night early) to start up another bandwagon against me from where I had 1 vote by idle to suddenly having a ton more votes.
Also- I find it suspicious that we went from 3rd Party (unknown win condition) and a claimed liar on the boards, to resuming a lynch the lurker strategy (as that’s also so far anyone’s indicated of why there was a huge amount of votes for again a guy not here most of D1).
-Those hoping for a last min claim or something like that out of me is the only thing I can see for a quick train on me. Which i find suspicious as well. I had accepted being the first up to the lynch on Day 3, but at least having a whole week to discuss arguments and such- to put me closer with less than 2-3 hours and without having read the first day… that’s just shitty Townspeople if it’s a townie bus (which I don’t think it is). That strategy much more behooves the scum to try to get a quick claim or a chaotic 2nd lynch.
–As for my Vote: I was comfortable with Brewha, primarily with the plan for watchers being involved as the reason- it just feels too much like Scum trying to set up something with all the power roles, with scum having the advantage of power roles/teams to work with setting up things more. That and the lie itself is damning for me.
–Chrys- I do at least feel is not Town. 3rd party? Possibly. Not ruling out a scum minor role though trying to see if they can survive to the end (but knowing they’d be at huge risk of Vigging. At least that’s what I’ve done. Vig them in the night. But now with Sach’s claim, that’s more of what i was looking for- Chrys’ LUTHA info in the claim does seem much more breadcrumby- and it’d be worth going back through the early posts to see, because that’d be EASY to breadcrumb “Leave use the hell alone” ect during the night 0 or something. That’s why Sachtorte’s claim is the type I was expecting from that sort of a role- where he can easily point out that he had been breadcrumbing from the very start.
Honestly, it’s still WIFOM to me though, because that’s what I’d do if I was scum- start bread crumbing a fake cult, base it on some off details from the start, and go with it to set up this sort of a situation. There are 7 to a scum team, and having 2 go out and make this sort of distraction cautious play isn’t a bad move (especially if you have the weaker powers do it). However, again the risk is a vigging of one of them exposing the other as scum. Which is why I believe that yes, they are more likely to be 3rd party… though “non-hostile” can easily be made of “hostile”.
But that’s why I’m not voting for **Chry **just yet. I think **Chrys **needs to die, if only to show us proof of the 3rd party, but that still doesn’t leave the guilitier one in my book- the liar of the day: Brewha.
And I’m still anti-Double lynches, because of exactly this reason. This isn’t going to be a “dummy vote” this is an attempt to bus someone in the last 12 hours of the day if I get lynched, and to give them as little time to defend themselves.
-R
Eh, I guess in my quick post, it turned into a long post going into my thoughts actually on D2 and my thoughts on the lynch so far. so nm on the longer post. It’s mostly leading up to the facts above.
(Sach’s quote embedded in there:
This Post
Is why I’m struggling with you SunnyDaze. You’re basically following around Sachtorte. You agree with him to hold off on voting me. Then basically set up a plan in place for me:
– “if i show up and claim a town power”- how is that a good thing to do a last min bussing attempt? That’s a terrible idea- and basically going into trying to oust a power role to make scum’s job easier.
–“If he shows up and disappears again- he goes under the noose day 3”: that makes sense, and when i posted yesterday, I agreed with that plan. I understand I’ve been away, and I’m going to have to deal with that guilt.
–“If he does something in between” (which is what i’d argue i’m doing), We judge him based on the facts. As it should be.
Now that plan was set up pre-knowing that **Satchtorte **is NOT town. **Sunny**. You agree with his proposition. Then today, you discover that **Sach **is NOT Town, he's changed his ideas from his "Townie Plan" (to wait and see) to suddenly trying to bus me, and you ride his coattails.
-That's why I find you suspicious.ToeJam, the D1 case on you is outlined here. Due to your absence, it gained little traction earlier toDay but since you’ve returned, you’re fair game again. Did you really not care to go back and see why you were almost lynched yesterday?
Towards the end of D1 there was a significant shift of votes to you, pushing townie Colby into 3rd place but townie Lakai was pushed into the lead (from 9-6-6 in #967 with Colby in the lead, to 12-7-7 in #1103, and eventually 18-15-6 at EoD). Could be scum supporting their teammate - you.
Lakai (18 votes) - Inner Stickler (257), RedSkeezix(319), Plumpudding(647), Light Foot (883), Koldanar (900), Scathach (1031), AngeloftheNorth (1078), Hockey Monkey (1102), Drain Bead (889), Raventhief (1109), Meeko (1082), buffytabby (1094), jsgoddess (1129), Hoopy Frood (1130), MHaye (1176), nesta (1187), ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (1206), Nanook of the North Shore (1208)
ToeJam (15 votes) - Sunny Daze (113), Hooker Chemical (184), sinjin (200), Sachertorte (534), Captain Klutz(796), Normal Phase (1011), Prof. Pepperwinkle (1057), BillMC (1152), septimus (1154), Biotop (1178), Guiri (1182), EnderW24 (1195), Chronos (1197), snfaulkner (1205), Lakai (1209)
colby11 (6 votes) - Texcat (91), ToeJam (132), Hawkeye(350), brewha (683), Pleonast (841), Suburban Plankton (1026)
It’s not “fair”? What a weird argument.
VOTE COUNT
brewha (15 votes) – Chronos, Biotop, Boozahol Squid, Cometothe…Cookies, bufftabby, Drain Bead, paulwhoisaghost, Khameleon, Lakai, Meeko, crys, Johnnyb, Profpepper, billmc, TotalLost
ToeJam(10 votes) - Idle Thoughts, biotop, sachertorte, captainklutz, sinjin, HookerChemical, Guiri,Thing Fish, brewha, raventhief
Crys75 (8 votes) – Hockey Monkey, DiggitCamara, AngeloftheNorth, Texcat, snfaulkner; Hawkeyeop, Zeriel, Scathach
Please note that this is a quick back-of-the-envelope count and includes only the top three vote getters.
If nothing changes, brewha, and only brewha, would be lynched.
Hello agaiin.
I’ve just completed reading of the last 400 or so posts in D2; again this leaves a gap I’ll have to go back over.
RL[spoiler]The funeral went as well as these things do. I caught up with my cousins (even the one I only met when she was 1 and her brother I didn’t know existed).
I was busier Friday than I expected, so I only came back to the game this afternoon.[/spoiler]
So we have Brewha caught out in a lie, Crys and Sachertorte both claiming a team of survivors where only one has to survive t the end for them all to win (much better than an individual survivor) and three switches.
Now I’ve never played in a game with switches before; however, I can think of only one Town-aligned role that benefits more from a Town-held disabling switch than a compulsory Vig, and that is a reluctant Vig that targets themselves after killing a Townie. (Add scum redirector and it’s a disaster.) So there is nothing intrinsically unlikely about a Townie with an AU Batman switch. Brewha’s wagon is fairly understandable.
After reading the second half or so of the thread, I’m not proposing to vote for Crys or Sach right now. Non-hostile third parties count againt the scum wincons, so voting to eliminate claimed third parties would be a mistake at this point. On the other hand, their posts should be subject to some extra critical attention in the coming Days.
@Roosh: I’m fairly sure that a lot of the scepticism about you is the way you claimed to post a lot, and then disappeared in D1 after only five posts, compared with 12 in N0. That provokes some suspicion. That doesn’t tell me anything about your alignment; iirc you’re a junior doctor and they have crazy schedules. That said, I think you need to make some sort of claim.
I won’t be voting the claimed LUTHAs Today, so it’ll be either you or Brewha. Convince be that you are better for Town than Brewha is (assuming Brewha’s claims are true) to help me decide between him or you, or even that I should vote for Crys.
Guiri, how do you reconcile the voting patterns at the end of D1 with the voting patterns right now? If D1 was a bunch of Scum saving ToeJam, why is there a rush to vote him now?
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TJ, I get your frustration, but from my POV, there are only 3 real lynch candidates. 2 of them are a) less likely than average to be scum and b) almost certain to be NKed soon regardless of alignment. You are the 3rd.
True, but I didn’t think it was all that relevant to the ultimate point I was making. A doc role buybacks 0.5 mislynches just as a scum death would. (And to clarify, 0.5 mislynch can round up to an actual bonus mislynch depending upon the player numbers. But two 0.5 mislynches are always equal to one bonus mislynch.)
It wasn’t. But if you want that analysis, here it is.
In this game, town is probably not going to win without scum cross-kills (or any other killing roles taking out scum). Because every scum death that comes from the faction of scum that has the lesser number of current players, actually counts as 0.5 mislynch against town number-wise. A scum faction only needs to equal or exceed half the number of total players and have more than the other faction to win the game. They don’t have to eliminate the other faction. So each death of the currently lesser faction brings the larger faction one step closer to a win.
That sucks. That really sucks. In this game a lynch of scum can be detrimental to town. In fact, the best way to mitigate this is to keep the scum factions even. But the problem with that is that as long as one member of a faction is alive, that faction has a kill. And we have to eliminate both factions anyway. So yeah, we have very little chance of winning this game without extra kills against scum. Because they are killing us twice as fast as we can kill them. That’s a significant advantage for them.
This is why a double lynch is a good thing. This is why a vig is a good thing. They’re both mechanisms that are in general town-controlled. However, each of those mechanisms carries it’s own drawbacks.
For example, I didn’t like the brewha or Crys lynch trains and explained my feelings on that already. I don’t think these are good lynches.
And the vig is frequently going to hit town, which hurts us.
A scum cross-kill will only get us a 0.5 mislynch half the time. (I.e. when it hits the scum faction not in the lead numbers-wise.) Additionally, we aren’t using townie resources on that kill. And when it hits the scum faction in the lead, we gain 0.5 mislynch as we would in a normal game. So in the long term, we have a wash. We can think of all 14 scum as meaningful pro-town deaths in the long-term.
But in the short-term, the numbers can screw us even if we are actually playing a good game.
Just something to keep in mind.
You do what you have to. I’m in favor of multi-lynch, but not I’m not going to support a lynch train I don’t agree with without some heavy convincing by those who favor the lynch.
Crys stated there were 5 cultists total.
sachertorte: Does your PM indicate the same?
I agree with this. I understand keeping up with the thread is hard, but I feel it can be done. Hell if someone that just had surgery a couple weeks ago can do it anyone should be able to and do a better job than I did. I mucked it up so bad lol.
Okay, I’m not convinced the case on ToeJam is strong enough, though his posts (thank you, Guiri for linking to the post that shows the anti-TJ case) feel scummier to me than brewha’s. Currently, my vote is on Pleonast, but because I think ToeJam is a better lynch target than brewha, I would be willing to shift my vote to ToeJam. I don’t feel great about it, but I also don’t feel great about brewha dying. I won’t shift unless it appears like it’s going to do something.
This is why I didn’t want other cultists to claim. We become easy targets for the Vig if they aren’t sure where scum are and are hesitant to shoot blindly into the masses. That just isn’t in the best interest of our faction. Now there are to of us with giant targets on our backs. I appreciate Sachertorte’s efforts to save me, however, I truly wish they wouldn’t have claimed tbh.
Oh, I think I misread your question. Are you suggesting this is a rush to save scummy brewha?