Mafia REUNION observation and comments ie the FORBIDDEN THREAD

Thread Games
301

Still not spoiled. Didn’t yet get a link to the thread.

I think a mass claim would have been helpful even a few Days ago. Probably still now too.

This is a semi-open setup where we know all Mafia/Wolf/Town power roles. We know how many mafia/wolves there are. So if all Town claimed, the only place that scum could hide would be in vanilla town. So just do a bit of math on the likelihood of hitting them with a lynch versus Town’s power roles getting offed and see if you beat the clock.

No one in thread’s put up a full list of remaining players so I can’t do it myself. But my guess is that it would be close, but Town has a good shot at winning just by going that route.

And I’m wondering how MHaye is still around in this game. Neither side wanted to kill him?

302

OK, so here is how my vote analysis system is currently reading the game. Obviously, in a real game I would use this in combination with my actual judgment, but in this unspoiled thread I’ll just present the objective vote analysis. As will be obvious I am not making any allowance for claims. Also, I am only attempting to distinguish between scum and non-scum, not between town and 3P. (On that note, it’s curious to me that everyone seems to be assuming there are 3 vanilla town left, ignoring the possibility of as-yet-undetected 3P)
Strong Town: Biotop, Capt Klutz, snfaulkner, nesta, sinjin (four of whom are quasi-confirmed non-scum, not bad)

Lean Town: hawkeyeop, Plumpudding

Null: MHaye, Lightfoot, Nanook, Scathach

Lean Scum: TexCat, Zeriel, Johnny Bravo

Strong Scum: Koldanar, raventhief, bufftabby, Lakai (this list looks less impressive in light of claims).

In doing this, I noticed that, other than joining in the D7 dogpile on Cookies, Scathach hasn’t cast a single vote for a player in realistic danger of being lynched since Day One. Nobody else has anywhere near that few meaningful votes. This system doesn’t penalize players for consistently not voting or casting one-off votes, but I’m surprised nobody in the game has called her on this.

With Bravo’s vote on bufftabby, MHaye, Lightfoot, sinjin and raventhief are the only remaining players who haven’t been voted for even once all game. Kudos to them if they are scum.

303

It’s interesting to see that this group of never having been voted on are middle, middle, top, bottom in terms of your analysis of scum liklihood. In other words, all over the map.

It’s also an interesting note about Scathach’s voting pattern. I wonder why that’s not factored into your analysis as a potential consideration when other voting patterns are.

Finally, I’m still really curious about MHaye. He was correct about my activity when he caught me and he was clearly correct on other activities on other nights. So it’s not a one-off thing and he’s not just making things up.

It’s possible he’s an undefined 3rd party role, but I can’t see any scum role that would allow him to do what he’s done. So the odds are he’s Town and he’s been an extremely effective Townie at that.

So why is he still alive?

304

Well, the system doesn’t explicitly penalize players for evading meaningful votes, but doing the analysis did force me to notice this suspicious pattern, so I think that’s a plus. I don’t think that any system based on number crunching is ever going to be more than somewhat helpful in finding scum.

305

Without commenting on accuracy: nice analysis, Thing Fish. I wish more players did things such as this, although I think the utility is only marginal. We’re simply too experienced as players to be consistently caught.

It can be difficult to distinguish scummy motivation from townie thoughtlessness. In either case, it needs to be called out.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

I’ve started sign-ups for the next mafia game over on the Giraffe board. It’s a new set-up, completely open except for numbers of each role. The game won’t start until Sario’s ends, so there’s no hurry.

306

Ah. Will multiple voting be allowed?

307

Is it a game run by Pleonast? :smiley:

308

Thanks,** Pleo!**

The multi-vote mechanic is very interesting. It seems at first glance to be massively pro-Town, since it blocks the basic scum strategy used when a teammate is in danger; distance and distract. “I agree that Voldemort is acting scummy, but overall I like the case on Harry better”. Now, scum will have to either vote for each other or claim to Town read each other.

309

Number of votes for bufftabby in the first approximately 7000 posts of this game: 0

Number of votes for bufftabby in the last 13 posts: 6

That’s…something.

310

Interesting. I could actually see it being the opposite: an efficient tool that scum could utilize well.

Think about this. All Town are in the dark. Most Town (by default of the numbers) are not so heavily invested in the game that they’re breaking down each and every player and creating cases on them. Hell, in this game alone, I could barely be arsed to pull up a vote on one the current lynch leaders, much less multi-vote.

Scum, on the other hand, are - as a block - much more invested in the game. They know from the get go who isn’t on their team. So it wouldn’t be too difficult to vote for the lynch leader, create another case or two on other Townies, and then, what the heck, put a vote or two on their teammates too just to throw people off the trail.

I may sign up. It’s been awhile since I’ve even logged into Giraffe. Hope I still can…

311

You’re both right. If used properly, it gives a huge advantage to Town. If someone is mildly suspicious, in a single-vote game may get no votes. But in a multi-vote game may pick up enough votes to get some attention.

But if Town is lazy, Scum can easily leverage their votes to manipulate the lynch.

I think that balance makes it good for gameplay.

By the way, the game I’ll run will partner almost every player with another. You’ll die when they do. Like a three-legged race with swords. :smiley:

312

I boil down multi-voting pretty simply: It generates more information, and information is in general good for Town.

313

I agree 100%. That’s more or less the argument I had against the Prof. P lynch. Still, I think there’s a decent case against the bufftabby/Lightfoot wolf duo, and I won’t be shocked if JB flips mafia.

314

I won’t be shocked if JB OR Nanook flip scum.
And you know now I was sincere

315

I hope your blizzard was more impressive than ours. Six to twelve inches predicted; we got maybe three before it turned to rain. :frowning: And of course all the puddles of water and slush will freeze overnight…

316

We ended up with a legitimate 2 feet. Further north it got worse. But it’s all ice now. It’s pretty ugly.

317

I, for one, do not like it.

318

Well, it was an awfully target-rich environment. I think your death just proves that Town can, in fact, pour piss out of a boot, but only if the directions are printed on the heel.

319

Sometimes when things go downhill, they go downhill fast. I think you played a very good game, though, and hope that our last two packmates can find a way to pull off the win. Not really loving that last nightkill choice, though.

320

I hve to agree for more than one reason. makes little sense for end game for the wolfies and I didn’t want to be dead ( hell they probably could have gotten me lynched with the nay sayers)