Mafia--T2: Behind the Scenes

The Game Room
1521

No not, really.

Following post analysis yesterDay and initial vote to start.

1. Santo Rugger
2. MHaye
3. Zeriel

I think I will have another look back at the previous Days and see if anything makes more sense given that **Shadowfacts **was scum.

1522

I’ve been re-reading and WIFOMing myself, in approximately that order. =P
vote:

  1. CatInASuit
  2. MHaye
  3. Santo Rugger

That last one is pretty much a placeholder, but given how I’m on everyone’s suspicion lists at the moment I’m not going to placeholder myself thankyouverymuch.

Cat’s been on my suspicion list for a while, he’s playing it low-key and it’s not so much that I think he’s more scummy as I think Santo Rugger is less scummy.

MHaye, already been covered.

Santo Rugger gets to be my placeholder because if CiAS isn’t scum, Santo is.

1523

Vote Count!

Votes:
OaOW: 1. Zeriel, 2. Mhaye, 3. CiaS
Oredigger: 1. Zeriel, 2. Santo, 3. OaOW
CatInASuit: 1. Santo, 2. Mhaye, 3. Zeriel
Zeriel: 1. CatInASuit, 2. Mhaye, 3. Santo

Totals:
Zeriel: (7) (OaOW 1st, Oredigger 1st, CatInASuit 3rd)
Santo Rugger: (6) (CatInASuit 1st, Oredigger 2nd, Zeriel 3rd)
Mhaye: (6) (CatInASuit 2nd, OaOW 2nd, Zeriel 2nd)
CatInASuit: (4) (Zeriel 1st, OaOW 3rd)
OaOW: (1) (Oredigger 3rd)

1524

Getting the vote in:

1. CatInASuit
2. MHaye
3. Santo Rugger

1525

Vote Count!

Votes:
OaOW: 1. Zeriel, 2. Mhaye, 3. CiaS
Oredigger: 1. Zeriel, 2. Santo, 3. OaOW
CatInASuit: 1. Santo, 2. Mhaye, 3. Zeriel
Zeriel: 1. CatInASuit, 2. Mhaye, 3. Santo
DiggitCamera: 1. CatInASuit, 2. Mhaye, 3. Santo Rugger

Totals:
Mhaye: (8) (DiggitCamera 2nd, CatInASuit 2nd, OaOW 2nd, Zeriel 2nd)
Zeriel: (7) (OaOW 1st, Oredigger 1st, CatInASuit 3rd)
Santo Rugger: (7) (CatInASuit 1st, Oredigger 2nd, Zeriel 3rd, DiggitCamera 3rd)
CatInASuit: (7) (CatInASuit 1st, Zeriel 1st, OaOW 3rd)
OaOW: (1) (Oredigger 3rd)

1526

I’m not very happy with the voting right now. Very little reasoning is being used right now. I’m getting the impression that people are voting with the thought “just get through the vanilla pool and then track down the recruit”. That’s not going to work: if we mislynch twice more, we lose, and there are potentially two townies in the vanilla pool(could be one if the recruit was a vanilla). We have to find the scum in the vanilla pool – we can’t rely on wiping them all out to do that.

I’m even less happy we’ve managed to put MHaye in the lead with a series of second votes. In light of OAOW pulling Santo’s ass out of the fire yesterDay, I’m very suspicious of the two of them. OAOW says he didn’t mean to cause a tie, which doesn’t hold up at all: the post prior to his vote that forced the tie was a vote count from pedescribe, and that was made an hour before OAOW’s.

1527

I concur. While I like MHaye’s chances at being scum recruit, I DON’T like him being everyone’s second place. We need some reasoning and to find the other scum in the vanilla pool.
unvote 2. Mhaye
unvote 3. Santo Rugger
vote 2. Santo Rugger (placeholder)
vote 3. Rysto (placeholder)
FOS MHaye but unvoting until he says his piece.

1528

I’m admitting right off the bat that this is a selfish vote. I know I’m not scum, and allowing myself to be lynched by not voting in a way that is most advantageous to me would be a mistake on my part. That said, since CatInA, Zeriel, and myself are all tied, and CatInAhas his first place vote on me (therefore he won’t be able to bump it up if he’d like to change his vote), I’m going to:

1. Vote Catina
2. Vote Zeriel
3. Vote MHaye

Hopefully we make the right choice Today so we have a lynch to burn Tomorrow.

1529

Votes:
OaOW: 1. Zeriel, 2. Mhaye, 3. CiaS
Oredigger: 1. Zeriel, 2. Santo, 3. OaOW
CatInASuit: 1. Santo, 2. Mhaye, 3. Zeriel
Zeriel: 1. CatInASuit, 2. Santo, 3. Rysto
DiggitCamera: 1. CatInASuit, 2. Mhaye, 3. Santo Rugger
Santo: 1. CiaS, 2. Zeriel, 3. Mhaye

Totals:
CatInASuit: (10) (Santo 1st, DiggitCamera 1st, Zeriel 1st, OaOW 3rd)
Zeriel: (9) (OaOW 1st, Oredigger 1st, Santo 2nd, CatInASuit 3rd)
Santo Rugger: (8) (CatInASuit 1st, Oredigger 2nd, Zeriel 2nd, DiggitCamera 3rd)
Mhaye: (7) (DiggitCamera 2nd, CatInASuit 2nd, OaOW 2nd, Santo 3rd)
OaOW: (1) (Oredigger 3rd)
Rysto: (1) (Zeriel 3rd)

1530

I’ve been reading along but focussing on Storyteller’s game for the first two days of Today. Now it’s time to turn my attention back here for a while.

Firstly my position. People don’t like the fact that I drove myself mad on Day 3 then did not reveal it, despite the fact that, as I have discussed, from my perspective, the only result of revealing it would have been to make myself into a viable recruitment candidate in the eyes of the Jester.

One consequence of the hypothesis that I was recruited and lost my powers that way is that someone else would have had to have been driven mad on Day 3. We can be sure that any such player was none of the power roles who have used their powers since the death of NBC; unfortunately if the insane one had been scum, they’d have no reason to reveal it. Vanilla Scientists would also have had no compelling reason to admit insanity before I admitted my power loss, which means that Dotchan and Pollux Oil were also plausible candidates we now can’t disprove.

The only other idea I’ve had for proving my insanity is (a) something that might not have worked, and (b) a moot point because BS PIU didn’t ask me a question on Night 4. (I rather hoped that my answer might be insane gibberish.) That leaves my status as something that the Town can only verify by lynching me. The problem with that, of course, is that we only have one mislynch left, otherwise I might welcome it just to put an end to all the WIFOMing on everyone else’s part.

The chance of driving myself mad on Day 3 was 1 in 16, compared to a 50% chance of driving a vanilla player round the twist. You can believe my assertion that that is what happened or not. I should probably remind you that we’ve seen significantly less likely scenarios come to pass,and in the number of games we’ve played, some unlikely occurrences are … well, quite likely. Saying “this is one” doesn’t really cut it; and yet it’s the truth.

Today’s votes were quite interesting. Somehow I managed to accumulate enough points to sneak into the lead despite being no-one’s first choice. I wasn’t overly worried about this as we haven’t even reached halfway through the Day yet. That’s an artefact of the voting system and the position in which I find myself, I suppose.

I have decided to let this stand as one post, while I struggle with the question of who to vote for; putting them in the same post has already delayed this post by about 24 hours-, and I want to work the ideas through.

1531

Who to vote for?

I’m not going to vote for me, since I know I’m not an android. Diggit and Oredigger are above suspicion now, so that leaves five people.

The vanilla pool (CatInaSuit, Santo Rugger and Zeriel) contain at least one T-1000 (the remaining original android) and possibly the recruit as well. If the recruit isn’t in the vanilla pool, then the recruit is either OaOW or Rysto.

I’ve been trying to think through the options that NBC had when he was lynched. He had two basic choices; recruit an uncontested power role, or recruit in the vanilla pool. Considering the pros and cons, I’m beginning to wonder whether he didn’t choose the latter.

At the time he was lynched, the vanilla pool consisted of the following.CIAS
DiggitCamara
Pollux Oil
Santo Rugger
Shadowfacts
Storyteller
ZerielAt that point, there were two other T-1000s in the pool. More to the point, the Vig was in this group. By recruiting into the vanilla pool, NBC had a 20% chance of nullifying the Vig, and if Diggit had been recruited, he could always claim he’d been supercautious and not used his ability because there was no clear lead.

The other advantage over recruiting an uncontested power role was that everyone was expecting him to do just that. By recruiting a vanilla, he’d enable the remaining T-1000s to freely kill the remaining unclaimed power roles in any order they chose with no risk of exposing the recruit.

Set against that is that there were two power roles just ripe for recruitment, because they could claim they’d been using their powers (within those power’s limits) Night after Night, without any fear of being contradicted. Those two were the Doctor and the Commuter. And, thanks to the mass roleclaim, NBC knew exactly who they were.

Now we know that Total Lost was not recruited, the most likely recruit from the power roles is OaOW, as we might have managed a scenario that verified Rysto’s powers.

I also found OaOW’s initial reaction to my power loss quite interesting; he called it [post=10289185]a great big ball of WIFOM[/post]. Now, that might be honest puzzlement, or it might be a comment aimed at keeping the pot stirred. Who can tell? Not I. OaOW knows, and so do the spectators screaming at us from the Gods.

I think there’s a good chance (from all that) that the recruit is in the vanilla pool; it’s just a question of who.

Previous days have seen me express suspicions of Santo Rugger and Zeriel, and not so much of CIAS. The main thing I have about the Sharp Dressed Cat is that he’s been under the radar for me all game. I think he admits he’s been a bit distracted, but still.

The person who has slightly fallen in suspicion level (for me) is Zeriel, because he unvoted me. Now, part of it may well be because he decided to take me out of the vote lead, and one always appreciates a reduced chance of swimming in molten steel – but his stated reason was to avoid a stealth-lynch for no good reason. Scum don’t mind a lynch for a confusing reason, and someone (anyone) being lynched as the second choice because the players can’t agree on a lead candidate is ideal for scum; they lynch goes through and there’s no one standout vote for the wrong person.

What to make of Santo I just don’t know. I sympathise with having work get trashed; it’s happened to me (although I doubt it was as earth shaking as Santo’s work tends to be if he gets it wrong ;).) But, his changed playstyle, particularly his “it’s not worth it” attitude early on isn’t the Santo we know. He’s referred (recently) to not liking to play vanilla Town. (Who does?) But is it a double bluff? His changed style masking his eager participation on the scum board?

Ultimately I think I still want to vote as I did at the close of Yesterday. However, if I do so I create a tie at the top of the lynch standings – Santo and Zeriel would both have 11 points. Therefore, for the purpose of not creating a tie, and thus a no lynch should the Day end with no further change, my second and third votes are reversed.

Vote**

  1. Santo Rugger
  2. One and Only Wanderers
  3. Zeriel**.
1532

So it looks like it’s up to me. I’m envious of the vanillas – they have a huge advantage in knowing that they are Town. Me? I’m stuck staring at a vote chart, trying to make sense of it all. It’s not telling me much. Oh, it tells me that Zeriel persued NAF quite consistently, and Santo was after ShadowFacts for some time, but what does that mean? Is it the case of a Townie who’s on to scum, or is it scum bussing scum for townie cred? The vote chart on it’s own has proved to be rather useless to me. So I’m going to do a re-read, and look at why our vanilla claimants were voting the way that they did, and see what that tells me about the votes.

(by the way, if anyone wants the raw data I’ll post it, but I’m not seeing a lot of enthusiasm for it)

1533

Vote Count!

Votes:
OaOW: 1. Zeriel, 2. Mhaye, 3. CiaS
Oredigger: 1. Zeriel, 2. Santo, 3. OaOW
CatInASuit: 1. Santo, 2. Mhaye, 3. Zeriel
Zeriel: 1. CatInASuit, 2. Santo, 3. Rysto
DiggitCamera: 1. CatInASuit, 2. Mhaye, 3. Santo Rugger
Santo: 1. CiaS, 2. Zeriel, 3. Mhaye
Mhaye: 1. Santo Rugger, 2. OaOW, 3. Zeriel

Totals:
Santo Rugger: (11) (Mhaye 1st, CatInASuit 1st, Oredigger 2nd, Zeriel 2nd, DiggitCamera 3rd)
CatInASuit: (10) (Santo 1st, DiggitCamera 1st, Zeriel 1st, OaOW 3rd)
Zeriel: (10) (OaOW 1st, Oredigger 1st, Santo 2nd, CatInASuit 3rd, Mhaye 3rd)
Mhaye: (7) (DiggitCamera 2nd, CatInASuit 2nd, OaOW 2nd, Santo 3rd)
OaOW: (3) (Mhaye 2nd, Oredigger 3rd)
Rysto: (1) (Zeriel 3rd)

1534

Christ, I’m tired. I have managed to gather the reasons, as best I could find, behind the vanilla claimant’s final votes each Day. I mostly only looked at voting posts unless other reasoning jumped out at me, so I may have missed reasons. I’m going to bed, and tomorrow I’ll sift through all this and decide on my vote.

CIAS
Day 1:

  1. Santo Rugger,
    “over calling for Sarah Connor to be lynched”
  2. Zsofia,
    This means I need a second place and that one will go to ZSofia. She hasn’t amended or explained her vote for Rysto, given the extra info we have on the situation, and is at least worthy of a second vote. A couple of votes on her have been pending her explanation, but nothing has been forthcoming.
  3. peeker
    for his position on Rysto as well although he backed off after Mod intervention.

Day 2:

  1. Flyfisheron,
    “not been seen for a while”
  2. Santo Rugger,
    "I still think you are scum, even if no-one else does although it looks like a few more possible candidates have come forward. "
  3. NBC
    “I have not been opposed to the role claim, I just wanted to make sure that if we did go through with it, it was at least a well thought out idea with as much covered as possible. As to it being a good thing, I will wait and see. Very smudgy indeed.”

Day 3: 1. Zeriel,
"I have moved Zeriel to the top, over looking at lynching a power role, which is not good for the Town, and because he did not seem to want to try and reduce the vanilla pool. (However much of a long shot it was.)

There was also Cookies vote for a power role yesterDay, which was explained away as skimming. ShadowFacts did the same at end of Day as well, although he did explain this morning. "

  1. Santo Rugger,
  2. NBC
    “As for suspects, my main three haven’t changed that much overNight.”

Day 4:

  1. Santo Rugger,
    “because I still think he is scummy and his behaviour is getting stranger.”
  2. Zeriel,
    “still feeling scummy but not as much as before.”
  3. Oredigger77
    "because I think he is the scummier of the two paranoid docs and is a placeholder

Reading back over the post analysis of NAF and Oredigger makes me think that Oredigger has been trying to find ways of blocking which will have no impact or be detrimental to the town. There is more content in his posts than NAF, but a lot of it is more anti-town. If I had to ask myself what his motivation was, I would say that confusion and directing power roles with a hint of fishing"

Day 5:

  1. NAF1138,
  2. Santo Rugger,
  3. Zeriel

Day 6:

  1. Santo Rugger,
    Ok, so we have the whole Day 1, let’s lynch Sarah Connor, because she is so anti-town.
    Slight back and forth between ShadowFacts and Santo Rugger on Day 1 as well.
    Comment after Night 1, that we should lynch SC again.
    Issue surrounding who the Jester can recruit.
    Back and forth with Shadowfacts
    Comment on not wanting to see NBC lynched as we should be lynching the third most scummy person??
    Wants to have himself lynched as it will help the Town?

Followed by major back and forth between Santo Rugger and Shadowfacts followed by a comment on Tag Teaming.

First off, the comments that one or other of Shadowfacts and Santo Rugger are WIFOM. It could be one scum and one town, or both scum hoping that people think it is one scum and one town. I am going to assume nothing as both are possible.

Ok, trying to look at them from the different viewpoints, ie playing as Scum or Town., Looking back over the Days, I have gone over Santo’s SC plan, Cookies/Zeriel voting for unconfirmed power roles and Shadowfacts having a major attack on Santo Rugger.

It is possiblities that make me vote for Santo Rugger. A comment about why Oredigger was confirmed based on last Night’s plan. I would have thought that given the game so far relying on people to do what is expected is nice but not confirmable. His reasoning as for why Oredigger was confirmed was incorrect, but he stated it as fact. Oredigger proved why he was confirmed shortly afterwards. Trusting play hoping Total Lost had done as he had thought or he knew something extra.

  1. Shadow Facts,

He has slipped under my radar for quite a while and not doing anything outstanding apart from the major set to with Santo. Based on my thoughts that Santo is scum, this looks like a setup to try and clear one or other of them based on who gets lynched.

  1. Mhaye

I think it unlikely they went for another vanilla as it the vanilla but for a power role. Of those, I think the person most likely to fit the bill is MHaye. His comment about loss of Night power due to insanity and keeping it hidden for two Days seems self serving.

Cookies/Zeriel
Day 1:

  1. Zsofia,
    “While far from trusting anything with respect to Rysto’s alignment or role, I also find Zsofia’s vote for him to be suspicious. I also asked a pretty direct question with regards to those who were voting for Rysto (along with those who seemed content to use the pre-set information as fodder for analysis) what, if any, impact pedescribe’s assertions that he had selected both times randomly might have on their perspectives. But no one really responded.”
  2. peeker,
    "From my point of view, peeker is all over the place and is contradicting himself. I think that is pretty clear if you read my posts prior to peeker’s vote for me, our exchanges after the vote, and then the comment from Almost Human and peeker’s reaction to it.
    I was not willing to put a vote down due to the OMGUS factor until the interaction with Almost Human. "
  3. Santo Rugger
    "I was not willing to put a vote down due to the OMGUS factor until the interaction with Almost Human. "

Day 2:

  1. NBC,
    “There will not be much original thought in this justification. But if I get lynched for it, the town is only down a vanilla scientist, and there sure seem to be plenty of us to go around.”
  2. NAF,
    “for over-reacting to a busy skim”
  3. Flyfisheron
    “Flyfisheron needs to get with the program and claim.”

Day 3:

  1. CatInASuit,
    " for even suggesting that he’s confirmed by something that can’t possibly confirm him."
  2. Oredigger77,
    "THAT’S my opinion on the doc controversy. "
  3. Zeriel
    “THAT’S the placeholder.”

Day 4:

  1. NAF,
    “-almost certainly lying”
  2. Santo Rugger,
    “gives me a bad vibe with a lot of stuff that seems anti-town”
  3. Zeriel
    “placeholder”

Day 5:

  1. NAF,
  2. Mhaye,
  3. CatInASuit
    "One for the liar, two for the vanilla pool. "

Day 6:

  1. Santo Rugger,

  2. CatInASuit,
    "the others for the vanilla pool based, admittedly, solely on my gut feelings. "

  3. Mhaye
    “for Mhaye because I do NOT trust the timing on the amazing disappearing intimidation chec”

Santo Rugger
Day 1:

  1. DiggitCamera,
  2. ShadowFacts,
  3. Zsofia

“Purely based on lynch the lurker.”

Day 2:

  1. Flyfisheron,
    "Is Flyfisheron not participating because he wants to be lynched. "
  2. Zeriel,
    “Is Cookies voting for power roles because she wants to be lynched?”
  3. NBC
    “Is NBC being shady because he wants to be lynched?”

Day 3:

  1. NBC,

  2. Zeriel,

  3. CatInAThis
    “This one is part OMGUS, I’ll admit.”

Day 4:

  1. Pollux Oil,
    "Get back around, man… "

  2. CatInASuit,
    “For trying to become “confirmed” by JC”"

  3. Shadow Facts
    "Gut/placeholder "

Day 5:

  1. NAF,

  2. CatInASuit,
    Okay, CatInA has really been pinging me hard this game. I’m sure a lot of it is OMGUS, but I just feel like he’s really been attacking me because of my ideas this game. Like I said in my above post, I think I’ve come up with some pretty novel ideas in this game. Now, some of them may be good, some of them may be bad, and some of them may be mediocre. However, I just feel like CatInA has really pushed hard at me. What better way as scum to win the game for your team than to pick somebody with controversial ideas and hound them until the town decided to lynch them. Granted, a lot of people have been suspicious of my ideas, but how are we ever going to break through the barrier of letting the power roles do all the lifting for us without novel ideas? It just really feels to me like scum trying to go for an easy kill.

  3. Shadow Facts
    "I feel comfortable placing my vote early because at least one of them must be scum. "

Day 6:

  1. Shadow Facts,
  2. CatInASuit,
  3. Zeriel
    “Like I said Yesterday, two of the people on that list are scum.”
1535

Thanks for that, Rysto. Hopefully some of those not in the Vanilla pool will be able to glean some information. I’ll try tomorrow, MHaye, just for you, but it’s not like anything I come up with is going to have much credence since I’m the leading vote getter at this time. Nobody likes to listen to the guy with the noose around his neck.

I’m starting to feel bad about the outcome of this game. We’ve got one mislynch to burn, and I’d really, really rather use it trying to find the recruit than by guessing who the remaining original scum is. out of Z man and CatInA.

I think the point Rysto reminded me about with CatInA is that he was trying to get himself confirmed Town just because he answered a question by Boozy that anybody could have answered, regardless of their alignment. That bell really rings hard to me, and I think it’s something the rest of you guys should at least consider.

As for Z-man, him and Cookies were rather aloof this game, so I don’t really know either way. I’m equally suspicious of both of them, really, but I do know that at least one of them is scum.

I think I’ve come up with a way to partially confirm MHaye’s story, though.

Ped, was Sarah Connors intimidation power a mandatory one?

As far as my play style this game that MHaye keeps saying he doesn’t like, although my participation has been lack luster, I’ve come up with quite a few ideas about how things should be done in order to help Town succeed (for example, had we lynched SC in the first place, we wouldn’t be having this WiFoM about her right now…)

1536

It was not, strictly speaking, a ‘power’, as it was both INVOLUNTARY AND RANDOM. So yes.

1537

Yaknow…** MHaye** said it himself. There’s a 15/16 chance of him being scum. His last action, which ped just confirmed was random, was the Day NBC died. In other words, there was only a 1/16 chance of him getting zapped. None of the Vanilla would have hesitated to say they got zapped, INCLUDING THE SCUM! “Whoops, I’m Vanilla, I got zapped”, would be all they’d have to say. 15/16. He’s also got me on his list, using his chicken shit strategy* of voting last, and I’m town. He’s trying to burn one of our last mislynches here. Also notice how he’s riding so hard that the recruited scum is in the Vanilla pool. WiFoM it if you’d like, but he’s trying to single handedly win the game while still alive by pushing so hard at that.

15/16 chance. Please remember that if I don’t get to sleep Tonight.

1538

Just to clarify, you’re talking about the intimidation, not the driving crazy, correct?

1539

On Mhaye

  • your insanity power kicked in before we killed the jester right? So regardless of whether you were the jester’s choice, someone should have been driven insane. WHy has no-one announced that?

a) a vanilla was targeted and as they lose nothing they don’t know they have been driven insane

b) someone power or vanilla was targeted, didn’t announce it and has since died

c) Mhaye is telling the truth and self targeted

We know no one else has claimed insanity. If Mhaye is telling the truth, he would have been unlikely to be chosen as the jester’s target, due to the ease of testing him (well we all thought he was easy to test at that time)

I know I have not been recruited

which leaves Rysto in the non vanilla pool

If Rysto is scum, then this post is trying to set up a double lynch, which is quite scummy in and of itself, however a scum Rysto would know that if I was lynched I would come up innocent, thus negating the second half of the lynch.
Colour me confused. Apologies for the brain dump nature of this post.

1540

Whoops.

Misread the question.

Sarah Conner’s intimidation power is optional and Sarah’s choice. It has ABSOLUTLY NOTHING to do with insanity.