I’m doing the math on Oredigger’s proposed plan.
FOR THE PURPOSES OF THIS PLAN I WILL ASSUME WE’RE RIGHT AND RYSTO IS THE CONVERT. If he is not this analysis is worthless.
Currently alive we have:**
CatInASuit - Claimed Vanilla
Zeriel - Claimed Vanilla
Santo Rugger - Claimed Vanilla
Oredigger77 - Paranoid Doc
DiggitCamera - Former Vig
Mhaye - Sarah Connor
OneandOnlyWanderers - Commuter
Rysto - Scum Convert**
Today we kill Rysto, leaving us with four confirmed townies, three unconfirmed with one scum among them.
If CIAS is scum, the scum will lose tomorrow. There is no other way for the world to work, regardless of whether he no-kills on purpose or is blocked. Therefore, the scum are screwed if CIAS is scum.
If CIAS is town, the scum will either kill tonight or decide not to kill tonight.
– If they decide not to kill, we lynch CIAS because Oredigger is blocking him. That leaves two in the pool, four confirmed going into tomorrow Night. After that night kill, in which OreDigger has a 50% chance of blocking the kill, the worst position we can be in will be one scum in a pool of two, and three confirmed townies. Even if we mislynch again, the worst case following is one known scum and two confirmed townies. Therefore, if CIAS is town and the scum fails to kill one of us tonight, they are screwed.
–If they decide to kill, we do not lynch CIAS. We have a 50% chance of catching scum, as it’s between myself and Rugger. If we fail, then the scum gets one more night kill and worst case we then have three confirmed townies (four confirmed today minus two night deaths plus CIAS), and we know who the scum is because there’s only one unconfirmed person in the vanilla pool. Therefore, if CIAS is town and the scum kills one of us tonight, they are screwed.
In short, the only way I see for scum to even have a chance at winning is for Rysto to still be town. So if you are, buddy, speak the heck up and prove it with a vote or at least a reasonable claim as to how you forgot to submit your bus action last Night.