Mafia: The Conspiracy

The Game Room
421

[QUOTE=One And Only Wanderers]
I’d quite cheerfully lynch a claimed Freemason today, if I already had reason to believe them scummy. This is because it is the safest roleclaim for today, as the Freemasons have only had the chance to check one person each. I’d be very reluctant to lynch any other claimed role without a counterclaim.
[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=amrussell]
Witches can also verify through investigation, which is better than multiple Witch claims. However, they can’t do that toDay. Therefore I suggest that toDay, we ignore Witch claims. The odds of us having a lying scum on our hands are much higher than actually having a Witch, so we should stick to our guns. In the logic of deterrence, if the scum are convinced we won’t change our minds then they won’t have an incentive to false claim.

Similar logic applies to the Vicar - we can’t really afford to lose him, but the odds are even more in our favour. I suggest that if the lynchee claims Vicar, we lynch regardless
[/QUOTE]

[bolding his]

This gets OAOW and amrussel a solid FOS from me. Others have brought up the relevant points, but I can’t let this go without commenting on it.

OAOW: True, masons are one of the least important roles in this game, but they are also very easily verifiable. Since they are less important than other roles and there are more than one it means that it’s worth a 1-to-1 trade for one to counterclaim. You seem a little too ready to lynch verifiable townies for my taste.

amrussel: How can we ignore witch claims? They are one of our most important roles. The loss of even one is a huge blow, equal to a detective in a more “standard” game, not to mention that keeping them alive is part of our win condition. Also, they are already verified by two others, so unlike the rest of the town roles there are those that know whether the claim is true. Do you think the other two witches would stand by and let one of their own be lynched and lose one of their powers? If we try to push through a lynch of a claimed witch we risk outing two of them.

Lynching a claimed vicar, while not as bad as lynching a claimed witch, still isn’t a good idea. If they are scum they get to live another Day or two, but unless there’s no real vicar in the game there’s someone out there that knows they are scum. If the real vicar is killed during the night then soon enough we’ll know a sure scum, and during the end-game the vicar’s role is about through and they can claim for a sure lynch.

I’m having a hard time understanding why you thought this was a good idea, even with your follow up about the odds being higher that it’s a false claim, etc. Even if I accept that the odds are higher (though I don’t think they necessarily are since the chance of us lynching a random town role is higher than a random scum role) I still think the risks of a mis-lynch are higher than those of letting a false claiming witch or vicar live. I can easily see scum trying to get us to lynch a witch or vicar for them, though.

422

Well Blaster Master is back and posting lots of meaty posts, so I will…
Unvote Blaster Master

Now, who else to vote for? There are a couple of people who have minorly pinged my scumdar so far, but nothing big. Nevertheless, since I am a proponent of early voting, I am not going to wait. The top name on my list right now is:

Vote sachertorte

423

[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
So you’d rather lynch all claimed witches, like amr? Do you have a better idea?

IMO, a witch trade for scum is better than falsly lynching a real witch, with no trade.

I’ve been wondering… would lynching three Wolves be worth outing two or three (all) witches and possibly lynching one (in other words, make two witches claim if there’s a counter claim)?

The biggest downside I can see is that you could possibly out two witches by finding the real witch, and only outing one scum.

goes back to the drawing board
[/QUOTE]

I’ve posted this already, but I’ll chime in again: the town must protect the witches if at all possible. Losing two witches means the town must then kill the Cabal (in addition to the Wolves and Undead) to win. Depending on how many Cabal members there are, that could be a pretty big problem. I don’t think we should mess around with the witches at all.

424

[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]
I’ve posted this already, but I’ll chime in again: the town must protect the witches if at all possible. Losing two witches means the town must then kill the Cabal (in addition to the Wolves and Undead) to win. Depending on how many Cabal members there are, that could be a pretty big problem. I don’t think we should mess around with the witches at all.
[/QUOTE]

That’s why I added the back to the drawing board part. I think I may be beginning to understand **amr’**s point. As much as I hate to say it, his strategy may be the best one for a false witch claim. I still think it’s a bad idea for a false vicar claim, though.

425

NETA: To -combat- a false role claim.

426

Others have already mentioned that OAOW’s casual attitude towards Monk role claims as being suspicious. There was something else I noticed - a minor thing, but OAOW invoked the “third-vote” scum tell when suspecting sachertorte. I mean, the third vote thing just seems pretty useless to me, but it also seems like an easy way to throw suspicion on someone, if one were so inclined.

vote One And Only Wanderer

427

[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
That’s why I added the back to the drawing board part. I think I may be beginning to understand **amr’**s point. As much as I hate to say it, his strategy may be the best one for a false witch claim. I still think it’s a bad idea for a false vicar claim, though.
[/QUOTE]

If you understand how immediately lynching a claimed witch might be the best move please fill me in, because I’m having a hard time coming up with a situation where the possible reward outweighs the risk.

428

[QUOTE=nesta]
If you understand how immediately lynching a claimed witch might be the best move please fill me in, because I’m having a hard time coming up with a situation where the possible reward outweighs the risk.
[/QUOTE]

That’s the part I’m still having the biggest hurdle with.

A best case scenario would involve the Seer claiming, and the real witches protecting the seer, but then we’d probably have a fake Seer claim.

throws up hands in disgust

I dunno what the heck to do/think.

429

[QUOTE=Rysto]
Aren’t the Vampire and the Necromancer on the same side, even though they have no means of communication and don’t know who each other are? They’re both Undead.
[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
I agree with most of that post, except the Vampire(s) and the Necromancer(s) are on the same team.
[/QUOTE]

You all are right… I’m still a bit mixed up with some of the roles. I hadn’t remembered that the Vampires were on the same size with the necrophiliac :p.

Either way, I think the point remains valid by accident because the Vicar is immune to Vampire attacks. So, the Undead have no way to eliminate him, they need either the Wolves lunch him or the Town to lynch him.

To the wolves, he’s at worst a confirmed townie, and at best will help minimize the danger of them losing to the undead. I can’t imagine they’d deliberately target him until it’s end game and they need confirmed townies down. Even still, if it’s end game, chances are, if the necromancer is still alive, they can’t afford to kill him because he’d be the extra bit of insurance they might need. If the necromancer IS dead, he’s a powerless.

To the town, we CANNOT afford to let him die. Once he’s dead, we have an upper limit on how long the game will last before the undead win by default. Even if there’s only one vampire, that’s at least 2 kills per cycle (most likely closer to 3 in that case), which means if we lynch the Vicar today, we have until Day 8 to find the necromancer or we lose.

430

Damnit, in light of my previous post now, I can’t think of a protown motive behind the proposal of lynching a witch or the Vicar. Unless amrussell can give a convincing response, I’ll probably be moving my vote to him tomorrow.

That said, to avoid a tie (which results in a no-lynch) or if one or the other between sachetorte and amrussell makes a believable role-claim, I’ll be happy to move my vote as necessary.

431

NETA: I meant to say, I can’t think of a protwon motive behind the proposal of lynching a claimed Witch or Vicar.

432

Vote amrussell

I can’t think of a reason why lynching a claimed witch or vicar is the best strategy. The more I think about it, though, I can see scum wanting to get them lynched despite a claim.

433

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]

To the town, we CANNOT afford to let him die. Once he’s dead, we have an upper limit on how long the game will last before the undead win by default. Even if there’s only one vampire, that’s at least 2 kills per cycle (most likely closer to 3 in that case), which means if we lynch the Vicar today, we have until Day 8 to find the necromancer or we lose.
[/QUOTE]

You know, I was significantly more worried about the dangers of the undead to the town until you wrote that. By day 8 (which is the minimum time to undead win), at least 16 out of 22 of us will be dead. More likely, the game will be over, with a more likely 3 kills per night for most of the game.
The likelihood by that point that the necromancer will be dead (by either chance night kill or Seer ID, is fairly decent).

Am I missing something, or is the Necro a really bad role in this game? (The vampire, of course, as a high powered SK, has at least a decent shot)

434

[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
That’s why I added the back to the drawing board part. I think I may be beginning to understand **amr’**s point. As much as I hate to say it, his strategy may be the best one for a false witch claim. I still think it’s a bad idea for a false vicar claim, though.
[/QUOTE]

Thanks for that. I went round and round in my head over what I would want to do if we got a Witch claim, and could only see a cascading series of role-claims that essentially brought us back to mass role-claiming. So I looked for something which had the merit of simplicity.

However this point:

is excellent, and removes a lot of my fears about exposing the Vicar.

However, the main business of my post. It’s c.13 hours to go, and I’m at a 5/5 tie in votes. I don’t want to wait till the last minute, so: I’m a Freemason. A Freemason with bad ideas maybe, but still a Freemason. For that reason, I’m also going to:

unvote nesta
vote One and Only Wanderers

435

Freemasons? Hopefully at least one of you hasn’t yet done his Day-handshake, and we can get two confirmed townies.

Happily a Mason claim is about the worst claim a scum can go for, it’s the easiest to disprove, and the most dispensable towny role.

436

[QUOTE=Diomedes]
Am I missing something, or is the Necro a really bad role in this game? (The vampire, of course, as a high powered SK, has at least a decent shot)
[/QUOTE]

I would disagree. I think it’s sort of a clever twist on the SK by splitting it up. The vampire(s) will have a hard time winning without the help of the zombies to boost their numbers. So their job is to up the body count, but if they die, it’s sort of like a half death to the undead because they can no longer kill and the body count drops (making the vicar’s job easier). Sort of like the SK, the necro’s job is simply to live and get some good guesses. By living, he boosts the undead’s chance of winning a lot, but unlike with an SK, if he dies, it’s not just “oh well, you lose”, they’ll still have a chance, allbeit a slim one.

BTW, I think I miscounted the number of days because I still had the number 20 in my head. Regardless, as long as the vicar is alive, the undead are much more managable.

437

[QUOTE=amrussell]
However, the main business of my post. It’s c.13 hours to go, and I’m at a 5/5 tie in votes. I don’t want to wait till the last minute, so: I’m a Freemason. A Freemason with bad ideas maybe, but still a Freemason.
[/QUOTE]

Okay, well let’s hope that not all of your mason buddies have used up their handshakes. I, for one, will likely be willing to give you a reprieve at least until tomorrow to ensure that at least one mason has had a chance to verify you and then specifically not spoken up.

Although, I have to ask, you’re in a 5-5 tie with sachetorte. Why not vote for him to actually help remove yourself from danger?

438

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Okay, well let’s hope that not all of your mason buddies have used up their handshakes. I, for one, will likely be willing to give you a reprieve at least until tomorrow to ensure that at least one mason has had a chance to verify you and then specifically not spoken up.

Although, I have to ask, you’re in a 5-5 tie with sachetorte. Why not vote for him to actually help remove yourself from danger?
[/QUOTE]

a) To do that, I’d have to think he was scum and I’m just not sure I do and
b) I can’t imagine anything that would look scummier.

This way, if I survive if it’s because of the town’s judgement, not my manipulation of the votes.

Oh, and it’s possible there’s more than one necromancer…

439

OK my list of people I would support a lynch for today cosnsists of MHaye, Diomedes & sachetorte.

MHaye - way too defensive when he hit 3 votes, particularly considering the craplogic nature of the reasoning behind the votes

sachetorte - I had thrown out a craplogic vote in the random stage, to see what the comments around it would be. I was very suspicious to see someone actually follow me with a vote

Diomedes - A little too forceful in his condemnation of sachetorte in my view - may be scum sensing an easy target?

Anyway I am going to break the tie in amrussell’s favor - I never said I would wantonly string up freemasons, just that a freemason claim wouldn’t put me off someone I thought was scummy.

unvote MHaye
vote sachetorte

440

Drive-by status report.

amrussell and sachertorte are tied at six votes each, with OAOW on three, Idle Thoughts on two and Zoggie on one. If the day were to end right now that would mean a tie and therefore no lynch.

I’m not really sure what I think of No Lynch in a game with no vanilla. I’m still thinking the issue through. I’m also thinking through a question raised by yesterday’s discussions and the roleclaim. Until I get those thoughts done, I’m going to leave my vote where it is, to keep the tie in place. (It’ll get shifted if the tie is broken when I come back later - but for now rl calls, dammit).

We have until 8pm my time, or just under 9 hours, before Nightfall. I’ll be back long before then.

Before I go though, I noted a small misunderstanding.

There’s no such thing as a sure lynch in this game unless we have four claimed Witches. We cannot know (without hacking Pleo’s computer) how many Vicars there are. There might be more than one, so the death of a Vicar doesn’t automatically mean the other claimant is a scumbag.