Mafia: The Conspiracy

The Game Room
1881

[QUOTE=Diomedes]
I saw your name on the offboard site, along with the names of a handful of other players, some of whom would normally have access to the board, and some who wouldn’t. I figured Pleo added those accounts to throw the trail off of nosy parkers like me who checked the ‘members’ list. (I did it to send a snarky anonymous note to one of the Cabalists just before the game started)

Curious that you would get access but sache didn’t, though… anyone else know of the location of the offsite board that wouldn’t normally have reason to?

There’s an offsite board that has the discussion fora for the witches, wolves and cabalists.
[/QUOTE]

Actually, Dio, he DID post the link to the board at one point. I even have an account on there under my name which I used to check the rules prior to the roles being handed out because I am unable to look at Google Docs from work. I imagine most of the rest of those named accounts are there for similar reasons and not because of anyone trying to trick anyone else.

1882

NETA: I didn’t see there was another page when I replied… :smack:

1883

[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
For the umpteenth time:

Vote Top Dog
[/QUOTE]

Okay THIS move doesn’t make any sense at all…

If he’s a wolf, and Zoggie is the other Wolf, obviously voting for her comdemns them to lose, but there’s no avoiding it at this point. This would equate to him getting to choose who wins without being able to win himself, because he’d know Hazel is the Necromancer, and if he killed her, then the town wins tomorrow, and if he kills someone else, then the Necromancer has a reasonably high probability of winning at Sunup.

If he’s a Wolf, and Zoggie is not a wolf, then if Hazel is a Wolf, he knows Zoggie is the Necromancer, but also knows that Hazel CANNOT back up her claim and kill him Tonight, and even if she can, she’ll still be investigated and it’s game over… Town wins. If Hazel is NOT a wolf either, then he can be fairly certain that Zoggie is the Necromancer (because her claim is not believable), but he also knows then that Hazel is probably the Vig and will take him out, leaving only two candidates, which is a certain Town victory as well.

If he’s the Necromancer, the appropriate move would have been to simply try to convince everyone he’s a wolf, but to just leave a Vote on Zoggie, and take his chances in a duel-off with Dotchan.

I don’t really see the motivation behind any of those, but his behavior tends to make me believe that he knows information he doesn’t want to share… namely, that one of the two between Hazel and Zoggie is a wolf, and the other is the Necromancer.

Either way, Tonight, the wolves WILL know who the Necromancer is. If Rugger isn’t a Wolf, then he is the Necromancer. You can then preserve your chance to win by targetting him because this will make Hazel, Shadow, and Diggit all potential Wolves. Whereas, if you target anyone else, you confirm Hazel as the Vig, revealing who the last two of you are AND you give the Necromancer a good chance to take it at Sunup. IOW, the ONLY reasonable move, if Rugger isn’t a Wolf, is for the Wolves to target him and they try to out-play the town.

If he is a Wolf, then you will also note that you HAVE to target Hazel, if she isn’t a wolf, to preserve any chance of winning. After targetting Rugger tonight, she’ll be well confirmed AND be giving the town essentially an extra lynch to track down the last Wolf amongst the unconfirmed. Thus, taking her would eliminate a confirmed and force us to go possible a couple more Days to find the last Wolf, in which point you can attempt to out-play us. If she IS a wolf, then you know that Zoggie is the Necromancer and you’re forced to either kill Rugger (hoping to get Hazel confirmed), kill another townie (giving the game over to pure chance), or not kill, leaving four people unconfirmed and trying to out-play the town for a chance at winning (with four unconfirmed, and two mis-lynches, especially if you can find a way to cast some doubt back on Dotchan, wolves can still win).

Thus, here’s MY plan… To discourage Wolves from targetting amongst the confirmed and not essentially forfeit the game, and because our investigation wouldn’t be a whole lot of use, I think the Witches will likely choose to protect amongst the confirmed instead. Of course, this is still up to discussion amongst us Tonight. Take what I’ve said above however you will, hell… use it to try to out-play us.

Oh, and Wolves, also don’t forget that only two of the Witches have used their secret powers. So we still have another trick up our sleeve. :smiley:

1884

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Okay THIS move doesn’t make any sense at all…
<snip>
[/QUOTE]

Sure it does. Look at all the thought you put into it. :wink:

1885

[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
Sure it does. Look at all the thought you put into it. :wink:
[/QUOTE]

My point being, regardless of whether you’re Wolf or Necro, your best interest is to avoid a lynch Today. Making some a vote draws attention TOWARD you which, regardless of your alignment, makes it harder for your side to win. Confusing the town is one thing, but sabotaging your team is something else entirely.

1886

Anyway, does Zoggie have any desire to convince us that her claim is legit? I really would like to hear something from her, other than essentially giving up.

1887

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
My point being, regardless of whether you’re Wolf or Necro, your best interest is to avoid a lynch Today. Making some a vote draws attention TOWARD you which, regardless of your alignment, makes it harder for your side to win. Confusing the town is one thing, but sabotaging your team is something else entirely.
[/QUOTE]

Thanks for the tip.

But if I place a legitimate vote, your mad math skillz may be able to deduce what I’m trying to do with it. I’d rather not risk that.

1888

[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
Thanks for the tip.

But if I place a legitimate vote, your mad math skillz may be able to deduce what I’m trying to do with it. I’d rather not risk that.
[/QUOTE]

But you see… placing a vote on Zoggie provided no information, because it’s where the town is going anyway. The whole jumping on the bandwagon thing only provides information IF we didn’t know you were scum and we thought you were doing it to look good. But now, we can analyze your approach in the context of what Zoggie’s role turns out to be.

Either way… it doesn’t matter. I have no intention of changing my vote.

1889

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
<snip>

Either way… it doesn’t matter. I have no intention of changing my vote.
[/QUOTE]

Me either. :smiley:

1890

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Either way… it doesn’t matter. I have no intention of changing my vote.
[/QUOTE]

Can I ask that we take a serious look at lynching Santo today? Why not explore some additional options, here.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m 99% sure Zoggie is scum and I’m not going to cry if she gets the noose. But things have dramatically changed today, and Santo is smelling pretty corpse-y to me right now, so I think it would be in our best interest to keep our options open.

So, what is the evidence that Zoggie is the Necromancer?

And, what is the evidence that **Santo Rugger **is the Necromancer?

(I’m going to go back and read for a bit to try to answer these questions for myself).

1891

[QUOTE=sachertorte]
Ah. So there isn’t a different URL for Witches and Wolves and Cabal? I was thinking that the witches would be at witchtalk.proboards51.com and Wolves at wolftalk.blahblah…

That’s why I was confused. I didn’t understand why DiggitCamara would have access to Santo Rugger’s fictional board.

I mean, why masontalk? masons don’t talk in secret!
[/QUOTE]

Something in the back of my mind was desperately trying to remind me of where I had seen something like that before:

Idle Thoughts’
psycho game .

By now the masonic board has been overwritten, for some reason or the other, but in that game the Masons did have a Daytime board. And at the end of the game we were given access privileges.

1892

[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]
Can I ask that we take a serious look at lynching Santo today? Why not explore some additional options, here.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m 99% sure Zoggie is scum and I’m not going to cry if she gets the noose. But things have dramatically changed today, and Santo is smelling pretty corpse-y to me right now, so I think it would be in our best interest to keep our options open.

So, what is the evidence that Zoggie is the Necromancer?

And, what is the evidence that **Santo Rugger **is the Necromancer?

(I’m going to go back and read for a bit to try to answer these questions for myself).
[/QUOTE]

The only evidence for Santo Rugger’s Wolviehood is his claim. At that point it was likely that one or the other side would investigate him at Night and, unless it was a Mason, it would come up as “town”. (when I investigated him I got “Pygmy Rugger is not a Freemason.”)

1893

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
The only evidence for Santo Rugger’s Wolviehood is his claim. At that point it was likely that one or the other side would investigate him at Night and, unless it was a Mason, it would come up as “town”. (when I investigated him I got “Pygmy Rugger is not a Freemason.”)
[/QUOTE]

I’m sorry, I’m probably being thicker than an elephant dick sandwich here, but I don’t understand what you are trying to say.

1894

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
The only evidence for Santo Rugger’s Wolviehood is his claim. At that point it was likely that one or the other side would investigate him at Night and, unless it was a Mason, it would come up as “town”. (when I investigated him I got “Pygmy Rugger is not a Freemason.”)
[/QUOTE]

Clarifying: Rugger’s claim of Masonhood, of course, is what points us to his being the Omega Wolf (not the necromancer)

1895

[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]
I’m sorry, I’m probably being thicker than an elephant dick sandwich here, but I don’t understand what you are trying to say.
[/QUOTE]

Don’t worry, I wasn’t being very clear:

  1. Rugger saw people being investigated, left and right
  2. He saw (or thought he saw) the last Mason going down and took his chance to claim
    If he was the Necromancer, he could expect to go down in flames if investigated after such a claim. On the other hand, as the Omega Wolf, he’d be in the clear (as long as all masons were dead).
1896

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
Don’t worry, I wasn’t being very clear:

  1. Rugger saw people being investigated, left and right
  2. He saw (or thought he saw) the last Mason going down and took his chance to claim
    If he was the Necromancer, he could expect to go down in flames if investigated after such a claim. On the other hand, as the Omega Wolf, he’d be in the clear (as long as all masons were dead).
    [/QUOTE]

Ah yes, I see. I think Diomedes mentioned something similar earlier, but it went past me at the time.

1897

[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]

So, what is the evidence that Zoggie is the Necromancer?

And, what is the evidence that **Santo Rugger **is the Necromancer?

[/QUOTE]

I’m going to try to answer my own questions here. I’ve just gone back and looked at this whole Day for some clues. Here’s what I found:

As far as I can see, there is no evidence (other than Dio’s vibes) that **Zoggie **is the Necromancer. Dio himself said this earlier this morning:

[QUOTE=Diomedes]
While you present a decent argument, I just can’t see how we’re supposed to determine whether Zoggie or Santo is the Necro from… well… anything. I do know that I give Santo a much higher probability of being town than Zoggie, whom I’m afraid I’m absolutely convinced is scum (and have from the beginning! She was my first vote! )
[/QUOTE]

Aside from casting doubt on **Dio’s **vibes about Santo :stuck_out_tongue: , this tells me that the Zoggie train is pretty much a toss-up. We’re pretty damn sure she’s scum, and that’s about it.

Since then, Santo has outed himself as scum definitely. And he did so by essentially claiming Wolf (without actually saying it). What’s the motivation behind this? I have an idea:

[QUOTE=Diomedes]

I’m still keeping with my vote of Zoggie. If she’s a wolf, it might behoove her to claim. I, andthe other town will back off, and although we’ll lynch her tomorrow, it will still give the other wolf a chance at winning. If she false-claims wolf, the Wolves will know she’s the Necro, and can kill her tonight. If she is a wolf, I’m strongly leaning towards Santos Rugger as the Necro.
[/QUOTE]

This is essentially what happened, only in reverse.

Now, the downsides to the “Santo as Necro” theory are what Diggit just said about Santo hiding as the Omega Wolf. Also, if Santo is the Necro, he’s taking a HUGE risk that the real wolves won’t kill him toNight.

I’m not sure that really helped me much, but I felt I needed to spend some time on it. I am seeing better some of the logical arguments about why people feel Santo is not the Necro, so perhaps it wasn’t a waste of time.

1898

How about this: the town was careering towards a Zoggie lynch before Pygmy put that role-claim up for the picking. If he -was- the necro, he would have stalled, not put anything forward: obviously he’s hoping for some sort of result.

1899

If we lynch wrong toDay, we definitely lose…is there someone that could be investigated toNight that would make the choice for Necromancer ironclad toMorrow either by an Undead result or via elimination?

Pleonast has confirmed that my blessing, being a Day action, goes through whether I survive the Night or not, so I’m kind of starting to entertain the idea of a No Lynch.

1900

Here’s one issue with a no-lynch. We don’t know what extra powers the Werewolves might have: They might still be able to recruit, they might have an extra kill (and could wipe out both Blaster and I, rendering the investigation meaningless), or something else entirely. The Necromancer may have some sort of ability to confuse an investigation.
If we no-lynch, I’m sure the scum will use tonight for their advantage. if we lynch, we stay a step ahead of them. And even if we do investigate, and one of the two of the witches is alive to report, what happens if our investigatee comes back Wolf? We’re still stuck with a guessing game, only we’re down to the point in the numbers game where the wolves could win again.