That sounds like an exceedingly ambitious goal to reach, and one that could backfire in a million ways. Say, for instance, that you publish your list and get the list right on its first position. But the second and the third are wrong. When the first Wolf gets exposed, the Wolves would be wise to leave the second and third alone, thus “confirming” your suspicions and this would lead to two mis-lynches afterward.
There’s another problem: In my experience it’s more likely that Wolves don’t interact that much during the Day. This is useful during the latter Days but not at all during the first couple of Days where most players don’t interact simply because we tend to focus our attention on those who either agree with our pet theory or who have slighted us (Plumpudding and Texcat are textbook examples of this. I would bet my life on at least one of them being Town, but heck if I know which one).
My advice would be: keep your List to yourself. Unless, of course, you are a far better player than I have ever been.
Okay… Point taken. I don’t think I am a particularly good player. I just want town to win.
But I do see advantages if several people were to post their lists if only to see what common names were showing up. I don’t think anyone would seriously consider my whole list or anyone else’s list as something other than a wild guess, but if a wolf had to post his/her list it might be revealing.
But I will let it go for now unless others see a benefit…
Why not both , if you are a wolf you could have said it to appear town like, not realizing that by being over certain that septimus is town points to you having perfect knowledge .
The rest of your analysis was helpful to town, but then wolves providing helpful analysis on town or even fellow wolves is not unheard of. I am hung up on you stating you were protecting someone. As town you could have had no idea what alignment septimus was, tie for the more scummy, sure , stating you were definitively protecting someone you should not have known their alignment is worrisome .saying hey look I was protecting a now confirmed town strikes me as odd.
Digesting your response , not ignoring . Time for bed. Til morning all.
so, what have we learned from the first day and night? I’m not sure if it is a good idea for everyone to post detailed lists of how they are leaning on everyone – my fear is that it might make it easy for scum to see when they are attracting attention and need to lay low. But I definitely think it is good to try to think in terms of “if we assume X is scum, who else is probably scum?” ** TexCat** and Cygnus 42 seem extremely likely to be on the same team, for instance.
Although precambrianmollusc seems to have this weird fixation on me currently, I did think he raised an excellent point that the usual move for a wolf who was in **TexCat’**s position yesterDay would have been to make a false roleclaim. So that has me think it is most likely that TexCat is town. Maybe not – maybe she is gutsy scum who figured that if she survived the Day and didn’t roleclaim, people would think she was town.
If she is Town, then yesterDay was most likely a largely intra-Town debate with scum mostly to be found among the lurkers and one-off votes. But maybe not – scum still might have been pushing one or both bandwagons, especially if JSexton and/or Dante G are scum.
Looking at the list of people who didn’t end the day voting on either TexCat or septimus: Bayard, Mahaloth, JSexton, Jimmy C, Nonsuch, and precambrian. I don’t think any of these people could be fairly described as lurkers, they were all at least fairly contributory. if you count Cygnus42 in this group, he was pretty lurky (and I fall at his feet and beg forgiveness if I have forgotten that he warned us about that!) but you couldn’t really say that he didn’t draw attention to himself. So it appears nobody was carrying out the full-blown stereotypical scum strategy.
But even if no wolves were ever in much danger, it would still be attractive to them to pour fuel on an intra-Town battle and make sure nothing unpleasant (to them) would crop up at the last minute. So I’m still suspicious of the people who started those wagons and especially the people who piled on the votes which put those two to the top of the list.
For TexCat, those were **Chronos **, sangfroid, Plumpudding, and septimus. That’s a very interesting list. We know two of them were town, do we think it’s likely all four of them are?
But for now I’m more focused on the septimus list, because I’m certain he’s Town. Those are Johnny Bravo, TexCat, Diggit Camara, Sario, and Dante G. Interestingly, the third through fifth votes on both candidates came in a very quick flurry of votes. sangfroid, Plumpy, and septimus all voted for TexCat between posts 477 and 486, and then Diggit, Sario, and Dante G voted for septimus between 490 and 535. That definitely makes the septimus bandwagon look suspiciously coordinated.
And two of the three people who suddenly pushed septimus to five votes were people who had already looked very scummy to me, Sario (who I was voting for at the time) and Dante G. Diggit had been less on my radar, but I had definitely noticed post 406, quoted below in its entirety.
So he is counting the fact that, if we had stuck with the self-voting plan, a townie would have been nightkilled as an argument against it. Of course, that is true of anything we could have done! And then he questions whether it is worthwhile to trade a Mason for the Alpha Wolf. Of course it is! In terms of Sexton points, it’s a 7-2 win for town. And then, after arguing against doing so, he proceeds to vote for himself.
But I digress. YesterDay I voted for Sario and nobody followed my lead, so I will vote for my co-scummiest Today.
For repeatedly casting votes with no justification or very poor justification and spewing BS when called on it, including voting yesterDay for both Chronos and septimus, and for playing a decisive role in the** septimus** mislynch,
vote Dante G
Interestingly, that paragraph could also work perfectly to introduce a vote for Sario. Like two peas in the pod, they are…
My current take on the train wreck at the end of Day One is that a few people (haven’t settled on just who yet) ended up voting septimus to save TexCat from a lynch, since a) I don’t see how/why they could have been gunning for septimus specifically and b) I’m not subscribing to the “lynch was a random clusterfuck” explanation right now.
Thing Fish, just so I’m clear: are you saying the bandwagon was engineered to kill septimus, or to save TexCat? This may seem like a distinction without a difference, since the result is a lynched septimus either way, but if TexCat is town, then was septimus merely an opportune target — a place to throw votes away and hopefully not be noticed? Because I don’t see how anyone could have known he was a power role before he declared, and therefore why he’d be specifically targeted otherwise.
I do note how my pick from last round, Dante G, figures prominently in this matter. Definitely not ruling him out of anything.
While I like very much the idea of thought experiments to figure out who the wolves are, I don’t see the link between myself and TexCat. I voted for her earlier because you and others voted for her, and switched my vote to septimus after you and others did. What’s the supposed connection?
If you are wolf and TexCat is innocent, why the vote switch that gets you on everone’s radar?
Conversely, if TexCat is wolf, your switch seems designed to help save her. Yes it makes others who voted for septimus seem guilty, but your vote switch came at a time that was very helpful to her and you were on septimus’ list as likely to be scum. We do not know if Chronos and septimus were right in their thoughts, but we do know that their posts were not lies.
I think this might be a good idea, although I might trim it down a bit. Perhaps we could all just state our top 3 wolf picks. It would be good to get everyone on record, even if we acknowledge that our picks are still mostly guesses and will most certainly change over time.
Wow, so some of you seem to think I may be scum because I voted for Septimus and because of my at times non-sensical posts. Fair enough, your deductions are not unfounded. I did vote for Septimus, true. I was really only going off of rereading posts from others that had done way better research than myself. Sorry if that makes me seem like a weak player, but unfortunately I am a little out of practice. I don’t particularly care if you like that excuse or not, as I have used it many times already, but its true. Besides, I never claimed that I was a great mafia phenom - I simply said I played and moderated many games, so I know how to play, but I’m not an expert like some of you guys portray yourselves to be.
I am not going to ramble on with any more excuses and craziness that could make me look worse. You wanna vote for me, roll the dice and take your chances.
I don’t actually feel firmly convinced that the septimus lynch was a scum conspiracy, though I can see how someone reading my analysis would conclude that I did think that. This game is teaching me that I need to work on not coming across as overconfident in my theories!
I keep going back and forth: the circumstances of the lynch sure look like the vote was manipulated by scum, which would suggest that TexCat is scum – I don’t see any reason to believe that the scum somehow figured out septimus was a power role. But then, if** TexCat** is scum, it was a very risky move for her to not play the false claim card. One way or the other, it seems that those damn wolves aren’t playing the way they’re supposed to! How is that supposed to help Town? :mad: And as far as judging TexCat’s actual behavior thus far in the game, I am still right in the middle of the road with the dead armadillos.
So for now, my vote is on someone who looks very, very scummy if we assume that TexCat is scum, but who I think is still a far better than average bet to be scum even if she is town.
But again, TexCat wouldn’t have been in such serious danger at the end of the Day if Pepperwinkle hadn’t voted for her earlier. So the combination of these two votes makes him look more like an ambivalent townie than a conspiring wolf. Or maybe like a wolf who wanted to vote in a way that made him look townie… And the same goes for Chitwood.
Good post. It was a very strange end-of-day. I still feel Cygnus42 is more probably town rather than scum. I can see scummy reasons for him to unvote within two minutes after the claim, but that is quite risky. Also remember it was a highly confusing end. I had only a vague idea of the vote-count, and I’m quite sure I was not the only one. I think it would be a safer play to just lay low and claim he he’d stepped out for a bit to discover the bad news. Could you explain “** TexCat** and Cygnus 42 seem extremely likely to be on the same team, for instance.” a bit further?
Why is that a weird thing to say? Aren’t we all certain **Septimus **was town?
Remember how late **Septimus **claimed and how hastily put together his claim was. I can see a wolf trying to put together a counter, only to realise the time is up, for example.
