You haven’t actually responded in any meaningful way, you’ve just kept repeating that I’ve been “retroactively revising” my explanation for my vote and haven’t directly addressed my defense against that charge at all.
And of course I’m NOW certain that septimus was town! My use of that particular phrase in the post you’re quoting is what is known as a “joke”.
Let me ask you this: look again at the post in which I voted. If you were writing an analysis of the day’s vote and wanted to summarize my stated reasoning in the vote in a few words, what would YOU say?
This is something that I at least try to do, yeah. It doesn’t necessarily need to be all of them, but trying to chain the reasoning together as a bunch of if-thens can be super helpful. For instance, trying to do that today has led me to believe that if the last lynch was in fact town vs. town, there’s really good chance it wasn’t primarily scum-driven, i.e. that it was a town-led town vs. town fiasco. I think it’s pretty hard to put together a cohesive theory about what everyone was doing that led to that sequence of events if 1. TexCat is town and 2. key players in the vote switch were scum. Part of this is that sufficiently unadvanced town play (mine included, to be sure) can be indistinguishable from unadvanced scum play.
This I really don’t like. Why wouldn’t he? I think we can conjecture a fantastic wolfy reason to write that post. If Plum is Town, he’s an ideal lynch target at this point, and it’s (clearly) worth Town credit to make the case, because there’s plausible Town reasons to be wary of his play up to this point. You’re relatively bulletproof for having made the case if he’s lynched and flips Town, and in the meantime, another wasted lynch.
Bayard, incidentally: 11 minutes before end of Day, you said you didn’t have anything useful to do with your vote. septimus responded immediately that you could force a three way tie by voting Dante. You’ve since said you have no lean on Dante, and you’re on record as thinking both TexCat and septimus were Town. Why didn’t you switch?
I probably hesitated to use a vote purely to engineer a tie. And, in any case, a minute after he made his post about the three-way tie, septimus changed his vote from Dante to TexCat, so the possibility of a tie was gone. Then I think a couple other votes came in for the two front runners, and voting for Dante was moot.
Why would you think I should have tried to get a tie by voting for someone I didn’t have strong wolf leanings on?
Wow, a reasonable and coherent post that even displays some ability to take a joke! More like this, please,** Plumpudding!**
Yeah, on further review that’s not quite as logical as it seemed last night when I was busy protecting septimus’ remaining stash of* Indica.*
Obviously, if we assume either of them is scum, that provides a strong scum motivation for Cygnus’ last minute vote switch, and it seems logical to assume the other is also scum.
If we assume TexCat is town, then there is no scum motivation for the vote switch (except to earn “scum wouldn’t possibly do that!” points), so Cygnus is probably also Town.
But what I missed is that if we start by assuming Cygnus is town, that doesn’t really lead us to any conclusions either way about TexCat. So while I’m quite suspicious of Cygnus, there doesn’t seem to be any reason to vote for him as long as there is a good chance that we might vote to flip TexCat’s card toDay, which would give us valuable information about Cygnus (not that I am saying that that by itself constitutes a valid reason for voting TexCat).
I certainly can’t dismiss Cygnus’ claim to have been confused and unsure about the vote count at the end of Day, since I was in exactly that position myself. On the other hand, I wasn’t thinking that I might have to switch my vote at the last minute based on motivations that I couldn’t be honest about. If TexCat is scum, scum would have had a very strong motivation to carefully count up the votes as Day’s end approached, and TexCat would have had plenty of time to plan a claim. So Cygnus’ last minute vote change, which made him look more townie but didn’t change the outcome, also doesn’t strike me as strong evidence that he is Town.
I don’t mean to coach you about what you should have done; I’m trying to flesh out why. What you said was
and there was a proposed solution advanced.
I mean, “didn’t have strong wolf leanings” vs. “think… are town;” there’s some qualitative difference there. You seemed to be looking for a way to use your vote productively with respect to the specific problem of the top vote-getters, in your mind, being Town. It isn’t clear to me, from your perspective, why septimus’ proposal wasn’t better.
Believe me, I’ve been in this exact situation before! Not knowing anything about any of you, I tried and failed. It’s never too late to change tactic!
So you’re where that went?! Should we be suspicious?
I agree, but right now we can’t be sure, or sure enough, of either of them. We can’t afford to loose our number-advantage at this point. He did not vote again, that could be explained by him being rushed to get his change on record. But it could also mean he was hesitant to vote TexCat, for scummy reasons, assuming there was a tie on the horizon.
This I agree with. I’m still suspicious of TexCat, and even though I for the most part lean town on Cygnus42, an unvote without a followed vote seems a bit weird.
Yeah, but a two minute window is pretty small. It could go either way, but I can see a confused townie trying to avoid what actually did happen, lynching a potential Guardian. There was no reason to believe **Septimus **actually had a power, so a pre-fabricated Guardian counter-claim during a two minute window seems like a bit of a stretch, especially on Day One.
Right now, I should observe more than chime in, and it seems most of you agree with that! We had a strategical advantage in our numbers that we don’t have anymore. We need to be careful about who we lynch. Other than that, the more theories, the better.
This is, of course, a wholly different beast. Indeed, I would see quite a benefit in this because it would be much more benficial than the usual “hunting for clues” which ensues when/if the Seer is Nightkilled (assuming, of course, that the Seer is one of the players who publishes his/her findings along with others).
Downside (especially if we consider the Seer participating in this effort): the Wolves could see who is “eerily correct” and target him/her because of that knowledge.
The longer I think about it, the more I believe that this is a pretty good idea, but that it shouldn’t be executed toDay or even toMorrow but just after that. That way, the Seer’s knowledge wouldn’t die with him/her; (s)he would have accumulated enough knowledge to make it worthwhile to risk exposure; the Wolves would be easier to spot by their “suspicions”.
Who among us has moderated a mafia on The Dope before, besides Storyteller? I have a couple questions about running my game when and if I get the chance. I can PM you.
Fair point. Unfortunately I probably don’t have a very satisfactory answer for why I didn’t move my vote. I don’t recall exactly what my thinking was at the time. I said in my first reply to you that I “probably” hesitated; I equivocated with the “probably” because things were happening fast and I don’t remember everything that was going through my mind when septimus proposed the three-way. But within a minute he’d moved his vote, and two minutes later there was another vote for him, so it was moot. If I’d voted Dante, it would have ended, what, 7-6-4 instead of 7-6-3 (septimus, TexCat, Dante)? If I had acted in that one minute after septimus made his proposal, perhaps things could have been different, I guess. But, hell, I don’t know, maybe I was refilling my coffee right then? Maybe I was scratching my chin and thinking about it? I don’t know.
I don’t think that idea has much to do with the Seer at all. The Seer will be very lucky to be able to identify even two scum. If we all make a list of five or even three players we are suspicious of, most if not all of the Seer’s list would be based on his/her own judgment. It wouldn’t be a useful guide to Town in finding scum, and it wouldn’t stand out enough to scum to put the Seer at risk.
As I said, my fear is that it will allow the Wolves to sense when they are drawing attention before they otherwise might; if they see that they are on a lot of lists, even if they aren’t currently drawing votes, they will know to change tactics. On the other hand, it is also possible that Town players might take a closer look at people who make a lot of lists.
Also, active players tend to express suspicions on multiple people anyway; I have already identified four players I am highly suspicious of (including you!). So one advantage to this plan is that it would get the opinions of Town players who don’t post much into the mix. We would also get scum opinions, of course, but we will get those anyway if the scum decide we need them.
Another potential advantage is that, if everyone is on record with their top five suspects, you would expect that a Townie who decides to switch votes would almost always move from one person on his list to another. It would look very suspicious if a wolf found it necessary to suddenly jump on a wagon for someone who hadn’t been on his list.
Well, it won’t affect me toDay anyway, but I am leaning toward the idea looking pro-Town.
That agrees with my count. I’m sure it’s due to poor [COLOR=“Black”]storyteller’s[/COLOR] RL issues, but it’s sort of an interesting twist to play a game without official vote counts.
