At the risk of being paranoid is it possible bayard is pulling an elaborate balls out scum fake claim? We could wait for tomorrow to lynch jsexton when bayard turns up dead . If bayard doesn’t turn up dead , it could be scum fucking with us, but that does give bayard another night investigation , so they would be the ballsiest scum ever if they tried that.
The downside , it leaves jsexton alive to plot with his scum buddies tonight , and given he is an experienced player that may not be a great idea.
Anyway something to ponder , or not. Might keep conversation going today , an early reveal of the result does allow scum to keep quite all day. If this is a scumtastic full scrotes out plan , not sure what the real seers plan should be, keep quite and counter tomorrow I would think?
Assuming the rules allow it, I can post a screenshot of my Role PM on tinypic or something for all to see.
I don’t know if that’s considered going off board, though.
I know I believe you. If there was another Seer and you were wolf this would not make any sense. You’d be outing yourself for no reason.
Lobo** JBSexton** is toast. Also no point in second-guessing your decision. Let’s roll with it and see where it goes. Perhaps the tide is turning…
Don’t know where I got the “B” in JSexton’s name. Guess it can stand for “Bagged.”
Nice friggin’ work, Bayard.
“Very suspect” is, I think, the highest degree of certainty I’ve seen you express. And it’s over that?
[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
For instance: having lost 2 of our Masons, the third one becomes, essentially, a Powerless Townie.
[/QUOTE]
Not really, though. We all know there’s exactly one of each mason, so if somebody claims mason at this point it’s basically the same as claiming any other unique power role – if nobody else steps up to contradict the claim, the mason power has basically self-confirmed.
Not that it’s exactly ideal we’re down two of 'em, obviously, but we still get a little bit of utility out of the power.
There was something else, what was it – oh right
Vote JSexton
Well, Thing Fish, I’d still like to see your detailed analysis of all my witty and insightful commentary… though it will likely reveal me to be a clueless noob flailing about here.
While it’s annoying to be wrong about Dante G, at least I was apparently right about JSexton. So, I can take credit for something here at least.
It was said before the Dante vote - we probably didn’t get much information out of his lynch. He was a new (to SDMB) player, playing erratically and confusing everyone along the way.
But, maybe we can get some info from JSexton - as was mentioned earlier, he was the leading vote-getter early in Day 1, but then the tide turned to septimus / Texcat somehow. Maybe there will be some wolf-tracks to be found there, which turned the tide away from JSexton in the first place. I’ll take a look at that area tomorrow.
Oh yeah,
vote JSexton
Now, let’s all go back and read every one of JSexton’s lies. Why did he post them?
On it, actually. Returning to my pet project from before –
Given the assumption that Bayard isn’t just making this up:
- at least 2 Town were voting for JSexton, plus Cygnus and Prof. P
- at least 2 Town were voting for TexCat, plus Plumpudding and sangfroid
- JSexton had a one-off vote on Chronos, who was Town
- me and Biotop had votes on a Townie Dante G
- Thing Fish and pcm had one-off votes on undetermineds
DiggitCamara, Sario and Dante then all voted for Townie septimus, setting Town into a bit of a tailspin that we still haven’t really gotten out of. Dante was Town and thus wasn’t saving anyone. If TexCat is Town, scummy Diggit and/or Sario could still have very well have been moving to save JSexton, but why use septimus to do it? Why not TexCat? Is there a coherent narrative to explain that?
If TexCat is Town, and Diggit and Sario were not scum moving with purpose to save JSexton, on the other hand, then where could the wolves have plausibly been at this point? Presumably not as the other votes on JSexton. They could have been on TexCat – two “openings” there. They could have been on Dante G – two spots there, although one of them was me, and I ain’t a wolf. They could have been on septimus already, except that’s only one additional person - Johnny Bravo. Or they could have been the other one-offers or not voting at all - not sure how many abstainers there were at this moment. What I’m saying is, if they were scattered among those groups as opposed to actively participating in moving the vote, they would be occupying almost all of those spots while the rest of the implausible end of day scenario unfolded entirely between Townies in a way that was very very convenient for them to sip bloody everyones in the shade.
Last scenario - if TexCat is the Alpha, on the other other hand, then it’s comparatively easy to read. Two Wolves are on the chopping block, TexCat fights valiantly to stay alive, and her buddies rally just in time, with help from dummies like me, to get septimus up there instead. So you’ve got your JSexton scum, your TexCat scum, probably either Diggit or Sario or both as rescue scum, and then just one or two scum hidden in those other groups from above.
Check my thinking here, since I’m out of time for right now, but as I read it, it does seem to me that Occam’s razor would suggest that the easier scenarios to make sense of are the ones we should be leaning towards. By that reading, seems like our frontrunners should be TexCat, Sario, DiggitCamara, wild card. No?
Since the game started, I’ve been keeping a spreadsheet with all players’ names across the top and down the side. Sort of an X-Y axis like those mileage grids you used to see in road atlases. Where players intersect, I colored the squares red or green to show if they voiced support or suspicion of each other. So, it’s pretty crude and only shows current state, not change over time. But it helps me visualize the relationships. It’s sort of a “heat map”.
Anyway, I figure the wolves most likely won’t talk to or about each other all that much if they can avoid it. If I were a wolf I’d probably try to have the blandest interaction possible with my fellow wolves. (Of course I’m just guessing – I really don’t know how I’d play that side.) Anyway, I looked on my grid for the players that JSexton didn’t express much opinion on, and who in return didn’t express much opinion on him. The players who pretty much left each other alone.
I’m not saying this is really strong proof of wolfitude, but it may be something. And I’m sure my scorekeeping is off. I’m sure I missed some posts and mischaracterized others. But as far as I can tell, the players JSexton said very little about, and who said little about him in return are:
DiggitCamara
Johnny Bravo
Precambrianmollusc
Sario
Texcat
Those five and JSexton make 6, so they can’t all be wolves. And I still don’t think TexCat is the Alpha. So, to my mind that leaves DiggitCamara, Johnny Bravo, Precambrianmollusc, and Sario as players we might want to take a good look at.
I note that Precambrianmollusc has cast doubt on my role claim and has not yet voted for JSexton. Precambrianmollusc, whose side are you one?
I’m sorry, but this is one of the scummiest ideas I have ever seen.
Let’s suppose, for a second, that Bayard is scum. As such, he would know JSexton’s alignment. So
a.) If **JSexton **is scum he’d be… “vindicated” I guess. But would have to do some serious explaining about being alive
b.) If **JSexton **is town, he’d… have gotten a Townsperson lynched. To what avail? (unless **JSexton ** is the Seer, that would be a rotten exchange for the Wolves)
Now, as scum, what would they have gotten out of the deal? If
b.) A Wolf in Seer’s clothing. So? The Seer would either still be out there (and could even put another Night’s work in) and Bayard would not only have to explain why he’s still alive but also give another target or the Seer=JSexton and Bayard would be lynched
I’m really sorry, but I simply can’t see any motivation for the post but that of a newbie Scum who is desperately searching for a way to rescue his outed compadre. If I were allowed two votes, I’d vote for you right here right now. As it is, I’ll vote for you toMorrow.
Was throwing out something I think town should discuss , all jumping on. A jsexton vote pretty much shuts down discussion for the day which is something scum would like. I am very suspicious of those who have been saying " the texcat question needs to be resolved by lynching texcat, there were a few this morning right off the bat. JC analysis above also seams to rely on texcat being the alpha wolf. Will try and look more at the flow or reasoning tomorrow . fWIw jsexton only interaction with me was to say my case on thingfish was weak , so either covering for thingfish , or simply acting town and genuinely pointing out my case was weak .
Discussion that there is a possibility the role claim is fake is scummy? Actively discussing possibilities rather than shutting down the day discussion is scummy ? If scum are thinking they are sitting fat and happy it could be an attempt to flush out the real seer with a counter claim. High risk essentially trading s wolf for a possible lead on the seer.
Nope. What’s scummy is that the claim came from someone with no voting pressure. As it stands, a Wolf in that situation wouldn’t claim seer and ruin it. Not only that but Bayard’s claim covers 2 living people, which would make it a far worse claim and even worse to sustain beyond toDay.
Your reasoning is still very, very scummy. You still have my vote for toMorrow.
Going back to ThingFish’s “Anatomy of a Massive Clusterfuck” after Day One. I snipped a lot of it (apologies if I misrep anything). As ThingFish pointed out, coming down to the wire on Day One, JSexton and TexCat were in the lead. Then, DiggitCamara, Sario, and Dante G. voted septimus. This does begin to look like DiggitCamara and Sario jumping in to protect JSexton. However, as ThingFish points out, why not vote TexCat if you want to protect JSexton, making it 6-4, instead of briefly having a three-way tie?
Could it be that either Johnny Bravo or TexCat are the Alpha, so when DiggitCamara and Sario joined them in a vote for septimus, they figured there was a good chance of getting the tiebreaker?
That’s enough of that. I’d rather go out gracefully.vote jsexton
Well, I don’t think so.
Storyteller announced that he would be doing away with the tiebreaker rule in post #436. I voted for septimus in post #460. The new tiebreaker rule wasn’t established until vote #862.
So for the entire duration the lynch on septimus, there was no tiebreaker.
I really can’t speak for the folks who followed me into the vote.
That said, it’s still a good idea to look back at all the conversations around jsexton (assuming there’s no forthcoming counterclaim, and that seems unlikely at this point). That includes me. This is where we finally start breaking down the case.
Unfortunately, all the analysis I did between Dawn and Bayard’s claim (excellent work, btw) was on **Mahaloth’**s relationship with Chronos. I got as far as noticing that Mahaloth’s vote on JSexton seemed to have been mostly motivated by one mason defending another. “Ah ha!” I said. “Maybe JSexton is town after all.”
:rolleyes:
So yeah, nothing new for tonight. We have a long time before night, though, and we can use all of it to dig for clues in the record.
A lot sure has happened since earlier today.
First things first:
unvote TexCat
vote JSexton
I’m on board this round, as it would seem Bayard is on the level. I agree that more would be lost than gained here by the wolves with an elaborate fake claim.
All I know is I’m still Town, and I’ve still been darted by Tex and PCMollusc for basically no other reasons than “doesn’t post a lot” and “posts don’t really say much”.
Maybe so. It just isn’t my style to post walls-o-text.
That said, the Alpha in our situation is free to post anything, and appear as Townie as they would like, since there is no repercussion in being investigated.
Perhaps our dearly departed Chronos was on to more than we know.
Either way, Precambrianmollusc and TexCat are still on my list.
Let’s see where the votes fall, and maybe we can get a little traction going. We could sure use it.
Heh, ninja’d by the confession. Clearly no counterclaim coming!
Probably simpler than that. Assume for the moment that DiggitCamara and Sario are scum. When they voted for septimus to get a three-way tie, there was still time to go and they would have no way of predicting that the tie would last. It could have just been a stop-gap vote. And at that point, JSexton still had his vote on Chronos. DiggitCamara and Sario (if they are wolves) could have just been waiting for JSexton to help himself. And in a couple of previous posts (106, 340), JSexton outlined how the wolves could use ninja lynches to avoid ties.
So, one wolf is in trouble, two more jump into the fray, taking some of the heat off the first, and waiting for him to cast his vote to tip the scales if necessary. In the meantime, more votes pile in on septimus, so JSexton’s vote is no longer required to save his own skin.
It’s a nice story. No idea if it’s true, though.
Interesting theories, one and all. Obviously I can’t speak for anyone else but:
However: during the same Day I had at first voted for DanteG (who, by now, though tragically, is a known Townie). If we accept your premise (I was trying to save one of the two people who were leading the votes, or possibly both), I should have voted for DanteG who, after all, had been the leading votegetter earlier during that Day and was pretty scummy-looking at the time.
As I explained later on, I voted for the person who seemed scummiest to me because he had endorsed a tactic which could be detrimental for Town and not the one whose words, though scummy, weren’t as harmful.