It really has been nagging at me about why JSexton got involved in the debate between Johnny Bravo and Thing Fish over the “protecting septimus” quote issue. JSexton came in on the side of Thing Fish.
He would though, wouldn’t he. JSexton would want to make town alliances. **JSexton **is a smart player. Here would try to gain town points from Thing Fish and not look like he is on Johnny Bravo’s team.
Somebody give me the top 3 reasons it’s so unthinkable Biotop is scum.
Jimmy,
Here’s reason number 1.
I have debated doing this for the last two Days, but no one was really voting for me because of my obvious townishness. So I held off. I wish I hadn’t becasue Thing Fish would probably do better in the end game than me. But we can’t change the past. We need to move on from folks worrying about me.
I didn’t want to post this, as it surely dooms me toNight. But it is in the best interest of the town not to waste posting space. We don’t have any more screw-ups to make and I doubt my tie-breaking ability will really come into factor again.
I am the First Mason.
Now if any other First Mason wants to claim, we can know that either he or I am a liar. You make the call. At least we will out one wolf for sure.
But if no one else claims, can we please not waste more time on me as wolf?
Now how about reasons why my trust in you might have been misplaced?
Because he posts, posts and then posts some more. Wolves lurk, as a general rule.
Because he’s done detailed analyses of every player. Wolves don’t need to pay that close of attention, as a general rule.
Because he came up with a mechanistic plan that would have revealed the identities of all the wolves. It wasn’t implemented, but he tried, and tried to resurrect it later in another format.
ETA: Oh, and apparently he’s the First Mason. Not a big surprise, that.
Hm.
It’s a bit late in the game for a fake claim, so I’ll assume for now that it’s true and address you as a fellow townie:
Biotop, look at what you did yesterday. When you unvoted Diggit and then changed your vote to Plum, you sealed Plum’s fate and made more voting on him a safe choice. You don’t think that looks suspicious? What prompted you to change your mind in the first place?
You vote me and say, “Why would Sario not choose Plumpudding if Johnny Bravo is town?” But asking “why wouldn’t a wolf act this way instead of that way” is just begging for WIFOM. Figuring out why they actually do things is hard enough; figuring out why they didn’t do hypothetical things is even harder.
Meanwhile, Diggit’s vote on me, completely out of left field, is about the best defense I think I could muster. Completely out of nowhere and 100% opportunistic.
Yeah, what Prof P says above is a good summary of why it’s unlikely for Biotop to be a wolf. The First Mason thing also helps, of course. It’s possible a mafia master could play the role of super-helpful townie to hide being a wolf, but it seems like it would be very hard to commit to that role, and keep it up consistently over weeks of real-time game play.
My comment wasn’t intended to start a wave of accusations against Biotop, I just wanted to get some initial thoughts out there while they were in my head.
Time to go back through the pages, and see what the connections looked like for our recently departed with some of the main suspects.
I stupidly unvoted DiggitCamara because I thought that, by creating a tie near the last few hours, I might cause a wolf to make a mistake. I waited until next real time day, but nothing happened. I was sort of hoping **Jimmy Chitwood **would make a vote to help guide me, but that didn’t happen either.
In the meantime, I reread Thing Fish’s case against Plum. Could I be wrong about Plum? It would really make sense for Plum, if wolf, to disrupt the Day1 votes on JSexton by jumping on TexCat AND also ragging on septimus. If Thing Fish is town he has a good case. I was just operating on my gut feeling in thinking Plum innocent. So I went back and forth.
And if **Thing Fish **was a wolf, it would make sense as to why more wolves had not jumped on the Plum bandwagon. Wolves do not want to be seen together. So I thought I could learn more from Plum than from Diggit if the lynch turned up town.
I also couldn’t understand JSexton endorsing Thing Fish’s Clusterfuck theory about two of Dante G, Diggit, and Sario being wolves — if the statement were true. Because if DiggitCamara is wolf, then the theory is fact. If **Diggit **is town however, then JSexton is endorsing a post that would lead our then-unrevealed Seer to three choices — all getting a town read if our Seer checks them out. I am still having issues with that regarding a DiggitCamara guilty verdict.
I really did spend the last two days putting together a case against Thing Fish. I have been unfairly biased against him since Day1 when he was voicing suspicion on fellow mason Chronos. I was an idiot yet again.
I also have to work overtime the next four days and might be away from the computer desk for a long period of time. I didn’t want to come back and find out that the players had been debating my possible wolfishness for several hours. Better to get the reveal out now than from a night kill anyway.
Hope I made the right decision here, at least.
I have never really worried too much about drawing suspicion my way as I have always had the First Mason card to play if needed. And I trust Cygnus and I did (and still somewhat do) trust Jimmy Chitwood. They were the ones not voting at the end of yesterDay. So I didn’t think either one needed a safe place to park a vote.
Last comment and I really am going to go out and cut the grass.
Johnny Bravo:
I think we should look very heavily at what players did not post and did not do, as hard as that is. I spend a good deal of time trying to make sure my post is right. I imagine wolves are even more careful. But it is harder to be careful when your silence is speaking for you. Silence can leave clues. Dog that doesn’t bark in the night, you know?
Silence is so much easier than posting, but maybe it can betray a wolf!
To me it’s the incredible amount of work he put in to analyze everybody the Day before toDay.
Ha. Even I can handle that. There’s that I haven’t final-voted for a known scum yet; that’s a pretty good reason. I’ve been a decisive vote in fucking over Town a couple times; there’s another.
But presumably part of the reason that you’ve trusted me up to this point is that I’m pretty obviously clueless and poking and prodding to try to become unclueless, and hopefully it’s easy to understand from my perspective why I’m very interested in questioning our assumptions up to this point. I’ll be honest; I suspect the fuck out of everyone.
Your immediate claim obviously resolves the issue, and moots any possibility that it would be effective as a trap strategy, but I do think the utter certainty about how all three of you Sario voters must be Town has a little bit of a ring of danger to it.
Ok so should I be paranoid of his claim !
Ok that was a joke .
The last part about the certainty of the 3 Sario voters being town is certainly hazardous , and sangfroid is not confirmed , lots to puzzle there, but I think that hunting in the nonsuch , digggit and Johnny b pool is going to produce some results and maybe clarify some of the interactions.
BioT town
Cygnus - likely town
Jimmy C -likely town ( for reasons given yesterday)
Prof pepper - likely town ( was 3rd voter on Sario ) of scum requires many shenanigans
Sangfroid likely town if scum requires many shenanigans
Me - town so I won’t be voting for myself , but, if after we send one or two of nonsuch / JB or DC to the long drop with a short rope, happy to work on ways to figure out if proof of me being town could flush out the remaining wolf.
Digggit C - scum because of reasons given before
jimmy B - scum because you are in the remaining lily pool , but I do appreciate your support in lynching your fellow wolf Diggit C.
Nonsuch - wolf main reason would be in remaining pool , need to go back and review the interactions.
Just thinking through the next few day night cycle wondering if, and if then when ,it makes sense to poke the SF or PRofP “not sure” pool.
So if we lynch Wolf today (DC/JB/NS)
(Aside -This is an interesting problem for them
They have 3 votes
bio cyg and JC are unlikely to get much of a case against them
So they have to choose between me prof p or sangfroid
Or feeding on one of their own, JB may already be heading that way. End aside)
One of bio/cyg/JC dies tonight
Tomorrow we are
2 confirmed
2 semi confirmed
Me
2 wolves
Let’s say we get one of the other two remaining of (DC,JB,NS)
Next night one of bio/cyg/JC dies
( I am assuming SF and Prof P will be left alive because it leaves uncertainty out there for us)
Next day we wake up with
1 confirmed
2 semi confirmed
Me
1 wolf (who ever is left of NS JB or DC)
We are 4 to one
If we lynch me, the final one of the bio/cyg/JC dies and we are down to a 3 handed between PRof/SF and the nsjbdc survivor.
If you don’t lynch me and we take out the last of the NSJBDC and they are town , it’s a 3 handed between ProfP/SF/me , of the last town between ProfP and SF they are likely to choose me, and town looses barring some epic slip up by the remaining wolf in the prof p / SF pair ( ok or town wins through careful analysis by me or the other town but let’s not count on that ( self deprecating humour))
If today we hit a town out of NSJBDC then one of the remaining wolves must lie in the ProfP/SF pair
We are also at lynch or loose ( wake up tomorrow with
2 confirmed
1 semi confirmed
Me
1 wolf in SF/ProfP
2 wolves in NSJBDC
If we lynch me we loose
We could work through NSJBDC but several days later end up back in a 3 handed.
If we hit town in the NSJBDC pool today it maybe better to go straight to working out who of SF Prof P is the wolf? If we get that question wrong we loose, if we don’t answer it then ,we will have less town available to answer it when we have to.
I think it would be better to answer that question with more alive town to figure it out and ignore the confounding votes or information from the other wolves alive. That would involve ignoring me and NSJBDC , but happy to do post digging for town .
if we get it right we can win ( just work through me and the remaining NSJBDC I think)
Anyway just working through the possibilities
Fully recognize that I am assuming JC and Cygnus are likely town, if they are scum well played , also if both Prof P and SF are scum then also well played wolves.
I suppose we could extend the line of thinking back and say, let’s poke at SF and ProfP now, but based on my feeling ( see who I think is scum) we are very very likely to hit scum when we lynch NSJBJc
I largely agree with your lists here - I started re-reading from the beginning earlier today, and got about halfway through. I was focusing on DiggitCamara, and starting to see the scum potential there. I also took notice of the posts by **Nonsuch **- there weren’t that many, but what was there seemed to lean townie to me.
Like I said, I only got halfway through (will get through the rest tomorrow) - so my thoughts may change along the way.
And again an iPhone or tapatalk decides that “lilly pool” makes more sense than “likely poo”
Not Edited to add,
Pool, FFS pool , not poo
Maybe it is commenting on my posts as “likely poo”
I hate you iPhone autocorrect
A quick correction, PM, I was the first to vote on Sario, then Biotop, then Cygnus42. If that makes any difference.
Ok was running off of memory , thanks