I disagree with Thing Fish’s analysis on DiggitCamara/Plum. I think the case can be made that Diggit can still be scum now that we know **Plum **is town. Indeed, Thing Fish had trouble with any scenario where Plum was town.
Early in this game, fellow mason Mahaloth recommended we read a thread about playing better Mafia. In that thread there was a discussion of the danger of “confirmation bias” where we believe something so whatever we then read or think is in danger of being slightly biased by our preconceived notion. We look for proof of what we believe instead of trying to find out what to believe based on proof. I think Thing Fish may have been so sure of Plum that he dismissed any alternate theory too easily.
I, for one, currently believe that** Johnny Bravo** and DiggitCamara are worthy of extreme attention. I could be wrong and hope they can convince me if I am.
But my problem is finding a third wolf among people I either trust, or have what I believe to be strong reasons to suspect they are town.
+++++
Six Players
I trust:** Prof. Pepperwinkle** and Cygnus.
I have strong town vibes for: Nonsuch and Jimmy Chitwood (ThingFish would have been on this list if still alive)
I don’t especially trust them, but have strong logical reasons for believing they are town: Precambrianmollusc and Sangfroid. (Plum would have been on this list if still alive).
I am wrong about at least one of these six players. But which one(s)?
And **DiggitCamara,
**
I have been trying to understand motivation this whole game. Maybe that is a waste of time, but I don’t think so.
Maybe the wolves randomly picked Thing Fish or chose him because he was last in the alphabet. Maybe Sario didn’t care whether his team won or not and just picked Sangfroid because of some disagreement in the Wolf Forum. Or maybe Sangfroid said in the Wolf Den that he wanted to quit and Sario obliged him when he had the chance.
Maybe the wolves didn’t like Sario and were not inclined to save him. Maybe the wolves didn’t want to see Plum killed because he was stirring disagreement among town players. Who knows, right?
But even if it is a bad reason, people usually act because of one. People also post because of one. I don’t see why trying to discern motivation is any less acceptable than trying to figure out what a particular post or vote really means. I have not found any post where a player actually outright confesses to being a wolf (except for JSexton).
I was stunned by the night kill of Thing Fish. It still makes no sense to me and I look forward to reading the wolf boards at the end of this game to see their thinking.
I think Sario, who was around posting all morning on the day he was lynched, had ample time to try and place a vote in the best place to save his skin. **Sangfroid **does not seem a whim.
In Plum, I think Thing Fish unintentionally gave wolves an easy lynch to join, and they didn’t. I want to know why.
And I think Sario might have reasonably expected a fellow wolf to help him out…but the other wolves did not. And I want to know why.
You don’t think these questions are helpful? No problem. I will still try and be open-minded and read every post, including yours, to help us all get at the truth before it is too late.
I think Occam’s Razor works well here. The wolves didn’t know who the remaining mason was and they expected that Sario would be the one to break the tie.
My main suspect right now, obviously, is Diggit. I do tend to get blinders when it comes to accusing people in this game, and I rarely switch my votes without a compelling reason. I will note that e, now a confirmed town, encouraged me to switch my vote off **Diggit **and onto Plum. I didn’t. If I was a wolf who knew that Thing Fish was on the nightkill short list, wouldn’t it have made more sense to follow his lead there? Following a soon-to-be-confirmed townie into a vote on a different townie would have been a safe move.
I don’t buy that those who vote for wolves should be trusted as town. If that were an axiom, this game would be a lot harder. At the moment I’m suspicious of both **Jimmy **and **Cygnus **for following your vote on Plumpudding so close to the end of the day. If you hadn’t claimed as Mason, I’d be all up your ass about it, too. Reading your posts without knowing you’re mason, it really does look like you engineered a save for **Diggit.
**I’m also suspicious of **Mollusc **because a) some of his posts are borderline incomprehensible to me and b) what I can parse involves an awful lot of assumptions where “likely town” translates into “confirmed town” in his calculations.
It’s too early to say whether your early vote on me will snowball, but take note of this. It’s a decent assumption that you’ll be killed tonight, so really think through how sure you are of your last voting day. Yesterday, it was your waffle that got Plumpudding killed.
If you really are sure of your vote, then go ahead and keep it on me. But bear in mind the effect that you’re having on the other people in this game.
I have you on my most likely town list, and have stated so several times, if I am casting aspersions at you, I am not very good at it.
From where I sit the most likely wolves are DC, JB and Nonsuch, if one of those turns up town then the remaining wolf would probably be between you and the professor. Hopefully you can sympathize with my position of not really knowing what is true, thus I am still keeping thoughts out there on you and PP, and what the implications are if one of DC, JB and Nonsuch turn up town.
From your own post, these were the only players out of the whole starting field you had absolutely nothing to say about:
Cygnus42
DiggitCamara
Jimmy Chitwood
Johnny Bravo
Nonsuch
Sario
…and yourself, of course, because it was your post. Unless you being “The Towniest Town Person of All” counts as commentary.
Of most of the others, you had quite a bit to say, some of which is also rather interesting.
Now review the remaining living players and their post counts (as supplied by ProfP), just for reference.
Either you are one excellent clairvoyant, or you conveniently left out comments on quite a few, if not most, of those being really looked at right now, late in the game. Four are also among the lowest post count players, but this I take with a grain of salt, as I didn’t post much at the start, but have been trying damn hard to make sense of things since.
[/QUOTE]
The post was at post 411, in the middle of the “everyone vote for themselves” plan, one that I didn’t agree with because I thought it was terrible for the game, and for town, flawed. Septimus had pointed out the flaw, which I acknowledged in that post 411. So I went to playing the game, read through the posts and voted for who I thought was scummiest at the time.
At the time I made the post the day was not done, Prof Ps count is for end of day, not half way through. The people I did not comment on had not said a whole lot, or had said very plain things ( see my thoughts on DC just posting game mechanics type thoughts) , so it was pretty difficult to get a sense on them.
Ok look at post 420 - its an early day one vote, which as I said then, are often made for bad reasons. I would prefer to get a vote out, which I did, rather than waffle around with 'hmmm he looks scummy" and not vote until I see a case gaining traction.
We don’t know if you’re wrong or not. Which is to say, nobody has that kind of matter of fact certainty about anything, unless they’re a wolf, in which case fuck them anyway. I’m not sure how there can be good Town feedback about those points as a result, since really the only rational responses are “probably, don’t know, don’t know, don’t know…”
Of the items on your list, I would say the first, that Biotop is Town, is fair. I would say that all the rest are roughly 95% more unsure than you seem to be about them. I think it’s especially weird that you think Thing Fish, god rest his soul and may he watch over us, “showed” something in the context of spearheading a lynch that turned out not to catch a wolf. We keep being wrong about things, but you keep acting like we know things. I continue to be paranoid as hell about this notion that the group of the three of you who rousted Sario must be Town, and it’s a shitty play by the numbers to go after one of you, but you don’t seem to be taking a very Townie perspective on these things.
I am still most persuaded that Diggit is where we should be looking, for reasons that have been discussed for several Days running. Wouldn’t mind the Johnny Bravo or Nonsuch angles, and rate precambrian as somewhat less likely to be scum than that bunch. I think sangfroid is Town.
So, sticking for once to my guns: Vote DiggitCamara
Well, huh. I know I’m Town, and I think Cygnus is the most likely person to be Town who isn’t all-but-confirmed as Town. And as expressed above I think that there are several more likely scum than pcm. As such, this is a post that would really raise my hackles if I had them, which I totally don’t.
So the next step is to start over and see if this makes sense with both of them as wolves.
Was out of touch most of yesterday, so a lot to catch up with today.
First thing I notice is, the two people who are main suspects - and who I both consider to be possible wolves - Diggit Camera and Johnny Bravo - are each voting for the other.
You’d think that if they were both actually wolves, they’d try to start a case against someone else - just pick someone else that has had suspicion in the past and go with it. However, one thing I know for sure, is that I’ve been terrible at guessing what the wolves would/should be doing. Maybe they’ll sacrifice one of those 2, in order to keep wolf #3 undercover.
Post #1047 (by Biotop) quotes an earlier post by Bayard:
I think it’s interesting and significant that most of those names are still in the conversation. One known town, one known wolf (both gone), and 3 solid suspects.
Gonna post this and come back in a minute…have to leave the PC, and don’t want to lose it again…
I"m not sure that early self vote by Diggit is all that meaningful - many/most of the players were doing it, and a wolf would not want to stand out unnecessarily.
I still have a town lean for **Nonsuch **after getting through the rest of the thread - could be wrong of course.
I think the best bet for today is still DiggitCamara. There’s been a steady stream of suspicion on him all game, which he hasn’t been able to clear up.
My view of the remaining players:
Town: Myself, Biotop, Prof P, Jimmy C
Probably Town: Nonsuch
Wolf: Diggitcamara, Johnny Bravo
Undecided: PCM, Sangfroid
My bet is that the 3 remaining wolves are among the 4 names at the bottom of my list.
vote DiggitCamara
Hopefully I’m not wildly mistaken in my categories above - I can’t claim to have any ‘smoking gun’ evidence, of course - but I’m fairly confident.
Listening to the heavy metal channel on Spotify - helps clear my mind sometimes… currently Slipknot - heh…
I have a pretty short list that starts with J/B and Diggit, but certainly doesn’t end there.
I sure don’t want to chase a (Town) ghost again.
No one has counter-claimed Bio yet, so as far as I’m concerned, he’s Mason. I’m inclined to follow his lead unless I uncover something more substantial during rereading.
We have some very talented liars among us, it would seem.
I’ll be back at my usual late night time to comment more.
As a final note, at this point in the game folks, why not list your top three suspects?
Seems this would help Town more than wolves if we screw up again and mis-lynch, which we really cannot afford to begin with.
Not sure it matters DC is on 4 , JB on 5 , if nonsuch votes DC to tie it is still JB to the noose as our first mason is voting for JB . Unless of course Biotio elects for the random vote choice . As both DC and JB are probably scum I am happy with JB as well. Not sure if vote switching would mean much .
Will aim for nonsuch analysis over the weekend.