Checking in reading and catching up , been at a conference for last few days so out of action
So, 3 votes on the board quickly for** Johnny Bravo** - one more would seal the deal for him this Day.
I’m not going to be the one to do that just yet, though.
I want to see:
- Who JB wants to vote for, and why
- Where PCM and Nonsuch will vote
Could the 2 remaining scum get another lynch candidate going? Would they even risk it?
If Johnny Bravo is, in fact, town - I’m sure the wolves won’t hesitate to jump on that bandwagon. But, if he’s a wolf - then the final wolf will certainly not want to make any waves, or attract attention.
Johnny - you haven’t made much of an attempt at self-defense yet. You didn’t come up with answers to Biotop’s questions from not too long ago (can’t find the post atm for some reason). He was trying to give you a chance to come up with something.
I’m sure this is gonna be a slow weekend for this game - hopefully a few more people will chime in and we get a good wolf lynch out of it.
I am pretty convince JB and Nonsuch are our remaining wolves. As stated a few days back, if either turns up town then we need to look at sangfroid or the professor.
I believe I did respond to Biotop’s questions, actually.
I haven’t responded yet because I need to know whether the tenor of my primary post will be a defense to try and save myself or a last will and testament to be looked at after I’m lynched.
OK, well, this Day’s lynch has a weird feel to it, but I think the case is made on Johnny and it doesn’t seem like much is changing, so I’m moving on as long as we’re here.
I have performed a reread on Nonsuch, who I mentioned earlier would be my next focus. My takeaway is that Nonsuch in the middle of the game seemed to be thinking almost exactly what I was thinking, to an uncanny degree, even about things that I wasn’t expressing (so this isn’t an accusation of snuggling or anything), so I’m obliged to take a lot of his incorrect analysis with a heavy dose of salt simply because it’s thinking that made sense to me as a Townie. Halfway through a reread of the game Nonsuch was looking as Town as all-get-out and I was feeling confused about what I had thought I had seen in his play to suggest otherwise. In the latter Days, though, it gets a little more muddled, so I am undecided. But I am now leaning more Town than when I started.
Not all-encompassing, but comprehensive review:
119 confused about tied vote strategy
149 newbie, but agrees with JSexton – let’s just play the game
178 lynch the lurker makes sense – no SDMB player is so unsophisticated as to lurk as wolf for first day
Fairly straightforward stuff here. Does align himself with JSexton in the camp that is against manipulating the tiebreak, but as we’ll see, it’s hard to count this against him too much.
219 "So Dante G breaks out of the pack as the first scum lynch frontrunner. His post was such a tell that I can’t help thinking he’s probably town —if scum gave themselves away that quick, this game would be pretty short.
Sitting on my vote for now."
Arguably a little bit of a smudge, but it would also have been easy for a wolf Nonsuch to jump on this, rather than defending him as probably Town. Also one of those points where I think I mostly agreed with the reading.
228 engineering ties is catherding – not fun
267 questions Plum about vote on PCM
Highlighting this one because it starts a theme – Nonsuch and PCM are after each other pretty consistently.
282 still against tiebreak plan – reasoning was sound, but idea won’t work
287 still doesn’t like Plum’s opinion on ties
More of his most frequent kind of contribution - not in favor of the tiebreak scheme. I think it’s fair to say the wolves were against it, so there’s that. But also several Townies were against it. I’m calling that neutral, overall. It fits with the idea of a participating, helpfulish wolf to be involved in this discussion heavily as opposed to doing lots of analysis and accusation, but that’s just confirmation of a preexisting bias; not independent evidence in favor of it.
292 Chronos made pro-town arguments, so not voting based on JSexton’s case, but “we’ll see” (Chronos in second, Dante in first 3-2 in votes)
Another post like 219, where he says correctly that somebody is Town, and doesn’t vote for them, but also leaves the door open. I don’t like this one.
417 (long break between posts) still doesn’t feel good about tiebreak scheme – agrees with Mahaloth about it
470 explaining absence – says earned first vote, but appears not to be true
510 JSexton’s post: “I’m never a fan of posts that only apologize for not posting. We’re approaching end of day, and I don’t recall anything of substance from you. Why do you think is town? who do you think is scum?”
Here a meaningful interaction with a known wolf. He doesn’t respond.
565 analysis – correctly IDs Bio and Chronos as town. “Stink-eye” category includes wolf JSexton, but also Plum, Dante, septimus, TexCat - is that all our mislynches? Votes Dante, no further activity that day
Here is the inflection point I was referring to earlier, where he starts behaving exactly in line with what I was thinking, from my own Town point of view. Agreeing with me is obviously a poor indicator of wolf/Town, but it’s striking how much he played for a bit like I thought Town should play.
740-1 analysis of mislynch – vote for candidate you think is most scummy (here agrees with me) – believes it was a Tex save – votes Tex, #2 vote after Bio
751 wants to hear mahaloth’s thoughts on JSexton
765 still thinks Plum is probably town
784 goes after PCM for bad thingfish vote, backs up thingfish at 790
900 analysis – “Another interpretation: the septimus votes pulled JSexton out of danger. Is he the scum being saved from lynching?”
This is a big one. He’s previously flagged JSexton for attention, and he’s still on the case. This turns out to be what happened, of course; it would be giving up a little bit for a wolf to make this suggestion. Of course, he is voting TexCat at this point.
1022 agrees with me further about JSexton save & possibility of TexCat – Sario – Diggit wolf bloc
Sario was a wolf, Diggit was a wolf, Tex wasn’t. Is it a plausible scum play to endorse that group? Thing Fish thought my post was somewhat scummy, so it wasn’t something Town would obviously all agree on. It seems to me that it’s not a great trade at this point to get some anti-Tex sentiment and some pro-Town cred in exchange for backing a case against two of your fairly-safeish wolf buddies at once.
1117 (after long absence) – thinks case on Plum pretty powerful, but tended to lean town, needs to think about
1160 analysis – PCM, plum, Prof P are suspects
1172 votes PCM
Similarly to the earlier commentary on Dante – he correctly identified a Town player as having engaged in distracting but not necessarily scummy behaviors, notes somebody else’s case about it is good while still remarking that he thinks the player is probably Town, and then he says he’s considering voting for that player. Again, this is a situation where I think his read on Plum is also what I consider the “default Town” read, because it’s just about the one I had. It is also significant that this is the day of the Sario lynch. Nonsuch was around and didn’t vote Plum. Hard to take all of these circumstances into account and say that this is a scummy picture, overall.
1312 leaning scum list:
Precambrianmollusc
Plumpudding
DiggitCamara
Sangfroid (aka Death Wish)
Johnny Bravo
Jimmy Chitwood
1386 short post, votes Plum
1391 DiggitCamara calls him undecided – intervention very townish
1480 – weighing PCM & DC
1503 – starting fresh
1555 – came out less confident than I was in some players, some seem scummier than they did, will get into it later, votes DC
Two votes on JB and two on DiggitCamara, by my count, at 1480 when Nonsuch says that he is deciding between PCM and Diggit. We don’t really hear what goes into the thought process, but by the time he votes, it’s 4-4 between JB and Diggit. We don’t know yet who he’s less confident in and who he thinks seem scummier now. We’re going to find out, it appears, whether he was choosing between a wolf and a wolf or a wolf and a Town when he placed that vote. If he was choosing between two wolves, then there’s the possible explanation that he was waiting in the hopes that some other option would present himself. If JB isn’t a wolf, then that’s a heck of a data point in Nonsuch’s favor. I think he is one, though.
Long story short - it’s possible to read this as a wolf playing a long, patient game, which is what my gut had decided I was seeing before I started the exercise, but starting from scratch and evaluating all of it on its own merits, I think I have to conclude this is easier to interpret as a Town resume. Maybe I’ve been misreading the PCM / Nonsuch interactions.
Thanks Jimmy - nice review of Nonsuch.
(On my
…phone ), so no fancy bolding, or correctly posting, for me.
I have a general town lean for Non too - I’ll have to look at how PCM dealt with Non along the way too.
Alright, then.
I was holding off because I wanted to see who would put their money where their mouths were. Only three people have actually voted for me:
Sangfroid
Jimmy Chitwood
Prof. Pepperwinkle
Precambrianmollusc hasn’t voted for me despite being pretty damned sure yesterday that both Diggit and I were scum.
“but I do appreciate your support in lynching your fellow wolf Diggit C.”
Based on his posts from yesterday, he should have immediately voted for me at the beginning of the day, right? Why hasn’t he? Because there’s no reason for him to put a vote on a townie when other people are doing the work for him. For somebody who apparently had such a good read on me even before Diggit’s alignment was confirmed, and who posted a shitload of ‘analysis,’ don’t you guys think he’s oddly silent now that there are other people voting for me?
So - what’s my main defense here? It’s that I tried to get you all to lynch Diggit two days ago, and you all lynched Plumpudding instead. This game would be playing out a lot differently right now if Biotop hadn’t doubted himself at the last minute and driven a late switch. Obviously, his intentions were good, but I don’t rule anybody else out.
My gut reaction says that there’s one wolf in the group voting for me and one wolf in the group not voting for me, but I wonder if you three are just doing the wolfs’ work for them and they’re having a nice chuckle over it.
If I die today, I hope you guys will look pretty closely at mollusc, because today’s the last mistake we have.
vote precambriamollusc
Just to highlight my previous point: there were only 12 posts in the day when this was posted, and mollusc had already made it quite clear that he was convinced I was scum. The result of the lynch confirmed the analysis he’d already made and the night kill was also a foregone conclusion.
There was no new data to influence mollusc. Why the hell hasn’t he voted for me?
Wow. As we approach the endgame, we face a possibly textbook case of WIFOM.
IF Johnny Bravo IS a Wolf, and we lynch him, then his indictment of Precambrianmollusc, coming as it does on the heels of Jimmy Chitwood’s detailed analysis and verdict of Town on Nonsuch, gives us the question: did he vote for Precambrianmollusc now in order to protect him (as a fellow Wolf) later?
Jimmy, IF the wolves (or wolf) follow their pattern of killing Experienced Town players who are being particularly useful, and IF you are Town (and I think you are), THEN you are the most likely target. They have established a pattern and haven’t varied from it, even when taking out Biotop earlier would probably have been in their best interests. What are your thoughts on Precambrianmollusc?
For what it is worth I have been trying to get some time to look at nonsuch. As said before I am 99% sure they are the last two wolves. The reasoning being I am more sure the others are town thus leaving those two as the most probable options. The reason for looking at nonsuch rather than just jump straight on JB is because IF whoever we lynch today turnes out town or if we lynch nonsuch tomorrow and they are town, does having a closer race between probable wolf JB and nonsuch help us down the line. JB pulled ahead handily today, and thus I was thinking of tossing a vote on nonsuch to see what happened. But as both are probable wolves it may really not show much other than putting my vote where my mouth is on nonsuch. Unfortunately real life got in the way I was presenting at a conference on well control and somewhat indisposed.
It does kinda look like that, from where I’m sitting.
I haven’t reread on him yet. I have thought up to this point that there were better places to look than at him, because my sense has been the things he’s been taken to task for have seemed more like sort of careless Town commentary than the kind of purposeful misleading that a wolf would want to try. But having read through on Nonsuch and seeing the interactions there, and seeing Johnny’s response, I’m reading the tea leaves the way you just described - Johnny saw the possibility of PCM getting some static and tried to inject some uncertainty. As of right this second, that’s where I’d vote next, assuming that Johnny flips wolf, which I’m confident in.
I’ll try to look at it in more detail if I can. With that said, I don’t think I’m the player the furthest above suspicion at this point; my record of actually killing wolves is not as good as yours or Cygnus’. At least, if I were a wolf, I’d think I had a better chance of getting a Town player to lynch me than to lynch one of you two in the endgame. Guess we’ll see!
Checking in. Knew things would be slow.
Nothing much new to offer due to re-reading.
And I must confess to having never seen “Princess Bride” and the attendant scene with the wine. When I searched it (gotta love youtube…) and watched, I thought it was hilarious.
It really captures quite well much of the silliness of this type of game!
Late-night check=in…
Looks like we have 3 votes for Johnny B, one for PCM on the board.
I’ll add my vote to the pile:
vote Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo: Jimmy C (1592), Prof P (1594), sangfroid (1600), Cygnus42 (1614)
precambrianmollusc: Johnny Bravo (1608)
I’ve mentioned before that I considered Johnny B to be pretty likely scum - I’d be surprised to be mistaken there.
From there, I think our last remaining wolf will be either **Nonsuch **or PCM. I was hoping they’d turn up and offer up a vote, along with some good reason for vote. There’s still some time left for the Day - but, since this is Labor Day weekend, it may stay just as quiet all the way through.
I took a look back through the many pages of this game, looking for interactions between PCM and Nonsuch. Turns out, there’s not a lot to see. Nonsuch voted for PCM a couple times, and expressed suspicion of him through the first couple Days. PCM and wolf Diggit voted for each other at some point too - not sure what to make of that.
If Johnny does end up a wolf, we’ll be 4-1 town after the NK. That should put us in a good position to win afterward.
Here’s hoping.
I’m assuming our mod/host is still planning on Day ending at noon Monday, US Labor Day holiday notwithstanding.
I mentioned last week I had done a re-read of the thread. So what did I come away with? There’s been some very strong play in evidence in this game. There’s also been enough chaff, noise and red herrings to make me want to suspect pretty much everyone. We really need to get this right and I feel my compass needle is spinning wildly at this point. So I’m coming home to the one suspect I’ve never been able to get out of my head.
I have indeed voiced suspicion of Precambrianmollusc. I outlined my initial case in this post, and this reaction to the Bayard seer claim, which seemed merely weird at the time, is now clanging in my head like an alarm bell. (Question/discuss the claim? Sure, that doesn’t hurt. Leave a confirmed wolf alive another day? Um, how 'bout NO.)
Johnny Bravo appears to be the current favorite, so this vote may not sway much. If I’ve got it wrong, I hope you all have got it right.
Vote Precambrianmollusc
Heading to the beach for Labor Day, so I won’t see the end of Day. Doesn’t look lie that’s going to matter much from my end. Good luck, town!
So, last minute updates, with Nonsuch tagging PCM along with JB:
After results are in, we should have a few important things to discuss.
Johnny Bravo [4] : Jimmy C (1592), Prof P (1594), sangfroid (1600), Cygnus42 (1614)
precambrianmollusc [2] : Johnny Bravo (1608) Nonsuch (1616)
So, no vote from PCM? He did say he was indisposed.
Vote Johnny Bravo.
Apologies for low level of participation this week