Not being mean in any way, but have you paid attention to the last few days? I was in at the end of the Day, I spent the Night discussing my views. The delay was to add another sub, not me. Mosier, you can speculate all you want what worries me is that part is dispelled with simple to look at storyteller posts.
The rest I guess is possible, but it is not what it is. I posted all the information I got, so I cannot answer why Alka chose to pick the emergency kit, or why he chose to protect himself Viserslash.
Seriously you want me to answer a question you should have asked him, he may have a good answer that you would have said shit I didn’t think of that But I don’t have an answer as to why he went the route he did go.
I still believe you are town, but I am 100% sure you’re barking up the wrong tree. And scum are sitting back enjoying another day getting gnarly off.
I implore you to use your time on your computer to read through. (PS I was on my iphone and had to run upstairs to reply so I know all about that pain in the ass)
fubble and gnarly both claimed to have investigated Stanislaus, and got a Town result.
I will be back a little later with my thoughts on the other stuff.
Your theory is plausible and would probably be a pretty good strategy for scum, but in my experience, Town comes up with all these theories about what scum are doing, while it seems what scum are usually doing are just laying low, and deciding what the best targets are for their powers. I rarely see scum trying to pull off elaborate schemes like this. So, I am inclined to believe this is what it looks like. Of course, I could be wrong, and if we get near LYLO and RyJae is still alive, I might have to reconsider.
I tend to agree with this. The claims of gnarly and MHaye make me lean Town on them. I think gnarly would have gotten more benefit as scum from not looking like he was piggybacking on someone else’s claim. MHaye’s claim is more iffy, but I think scum would probably prefer Town to think the cloak is in play.
There was a late move for fubbleskag that wound up saving KellyCriterion. I think Mosier is going to show up Town soon enough. He is not totally confirmed, but I think Stanislaus is Town. That leaves Kelly and Inner Stickler with the other saving votes. So, if Kelly does turn out to be scum, the question is “would Inner have been that blatant about saving a scum mate?” If Kelly turns out to be Town, I am not sure that tells us much of anything.
My vote yesterDay was for Hal, and that is still where my main suspicions are, but I will look closer at Kelly tomorrow. Kelly may be the best choice for the lynch toDay.
Can anyone come up with a reasonable explanation why Alka protected Visor night 1, but didn’t claim it until much later? Even more confounding is why that protection apparently worked. Visor’s death only would have guaranteed that another townie got the extraordinarily powerful pardoner role!
Why do you keep popping up to make comments that reveal how little you’ve read the thread? Before this, we had the disingenuous line about how you don’t use Miller roles in game design. It’s like you want to prove to everyone how little engaged you are.
I want to see what happens if Mahaloth picks up a significant amount of votes:
vote Mahaloth
I’m also going to go back to voting Hal. As mentioned, he earlier apparently failed to consider the possibility that fubbles might be scum when evaluating his investigation result. Now it turns out the blithe assumption that fubbles was town was accurate:
Lastly, I was a bit pinged by these comments from Ender last night:
It seems quite aggressive, esp. the bolded part. I had, clearly, screwed up badly with my vote, so criticism is fine. But I am (more so since fubbles flipped town) in the position of being highly probably town; it’s in scum’s interest to spread doubt about that and this was their opportunity.
I’m especially suspicious because a) Ender admits all the arguments I’ll go on to make explaining why I couldn’t consider fubbles town even as he’s attacking me for not considering fubbles town and b) as soon as MHaye claims and “reveals” that I’m not wearing the Cloak, Ender backs right off again.
You’re correct that that’s the order of things, but I’ll say it wasn’t MHaye’s claim that did it for me. It was the conglomeration of evidence as I pointed out in my previous post that’s convinced me you’re Town. That, and I haven’t really considered you Scum all game long so the evidence I received only affirmed what I had previously believed. That said, I just thought your vote for **fubbleskag ** yesterDay was weird and I couldn’t make sense of it. I wasn’t going to vote for you, I just wanted an explanation, which I received.
Now on a different topic, Mosier make a pretty strong and somewhat plausible argument for RyJae being Scum. That said, I think we often see hoofprints and think zebra when it’s really a horse. It’s plausible enough for “reasonable doubt” in a court of law, but I don’t consider it enough for a vote. I’m not yet convinced that Scum was strategic enough to have pulled something like this off. Particularly since part of the logic stems from **Mosier ** and my Watching ability which, let’s be honest, isn’t a terribly powerful power in the first place and it’s doubtful Scum would have factored it into their consideration when making their move.
I’m willing to reconsider. But not toDay. Even if RyJae is Scum, there are still three others out there we need to get, who are equally as important. So it can wait.
That’s twice you pointed out that maybe Scum poisoned Scum, but probably not because there’s really no good reason for it.
You’re right that there’s no good reason for it. **MentalGuy **had it right (though he was addressing **Mosier’s **conspiracy theory, not yours): Town always comes up with clever ploys that Scum might use, full of deception and misdirection…and Scum almost never seem to use them. The simplest explanation does indeed usually turn out to be true. And the simplest explanation here is that Mosier was poisoned because he is in fact Town. Something that you yourself say you agree with, even thought you keep reminding us that it might not be true.
I’ve had Mosier on my “probably Town” list ever since his claim. I think that claim at that point in the game would have been too great a risk for too little reward for the Scum to make.
As to Mosier’s argument against RyJae:
It’s a solid argument. Everyhing Mosier says is correct. But I don’t really see any particular reason that Mosier’s version of events is any more likely than RyJae’s. It’s a solid argument, but it’s not particularly compelling.
I think your argument here is flawed.
As to why **Alka **would have protected Visorslash: he was the one and only Confirmed Town at that point, which would make him the ‘obvious target’ for Scum. Of course, Scum know that, so that would make him a bad person to target, and son on…WIFOM. But we don’t know that Alka’s protection of Visor ‘worked’ at all. As you pointed out, perhaps the Scum didn’t attempt a kill on Night 1. Or perhaps they targeted Alka himself, as he was also protected. You do have a good point that the Town would have inherited the Pardoner role had Visor been Night-killed, but that only makes Alka’s decision to protect him a bad one, not necessarily a Scummy one. And of course, there’s always the possibility that the Parson is Scum, in which case the Town inherits nothing…but if Alka knew that, then he would be Scum, so that’s not really an argument in his favor.
As I said, I can see the argument against Alke Seltzer/RyJae, but I don’t think it’s compelling enough to support a vote at this point.
I voted for Hal Briston yesterDay (Post 536). Later in the Day, Hal changed his vote to KellyCriterion (Post 571). He objects to Kelly’s criticism of Enderw24
My problem with this is: what’s wrong with **KellyCriterion **trying to “make Ender look bad”? If Kelly thinks Ender is doing something Scummy, isn’t he supposed to point that out, and in doing so “make him look bad”? It looks here like Hal *knows *that Ender is being falsely accused. There are only two ways Hal could know that. If he’s the Reeve, he should have announced by now that he’s investigated Ender and found him Town. He hasn’t, so I assume he’s not the Reeve, which leaves option 2: he’s Scum.
I see nothing to change my opinion from yesterday; on the contrary, I’m more convinced of it Today.
I know I voted Mosier on Day 2, mostly for reasons of “been there, done that, killed the little doggie,” but I cannot see that the Mafia would poison one of their own; and if Mosier miraculously recovers after Alka’s claim Yesterday, that would imply that either Alka or Mosier lied. (Either Mosier was never poisoned, or Alka lied in saying he opted for the Emergency Kit).
I’ve moved Mosier to “probably Town”, in the living group behind Visorslash and Stanislaus.
I have some notes to review to see if anything significant can be drawn out.
I made the point initially because saying otherwise would be an omission. I made the second point as a method of showing that you can connect any dots you want in this game. Doesn’t make them real, just points that it is possible.
I am stunned, and disheartened by the level of attention so many are putting into this game. I shouldn’t have been, of course.
If we want to win this game we cannot be lynching townies based on nothing but pure gut feelings. We have someone who told investigators to help town to look at voters in a group he wasn’t in. We have someone who made a possible slip.
Day 1/Night 1
Gnarlycharlie votes an hour after 1pm, a worthless vote, one that could have been cancelled if Storyteller would have ended it prior to his post.
Right out of the gate Day 1. And overlooked. He votes late, makes sure it’s not on the “bandwagon” and that Night he makes sure to tell investigators to look at the bandwagon.
Two other people had strong suspicions on gnarly, Texcat and Snickers, those are the other two people who hammered him, where are they now? And what confirmed alignment where they?
You just made at least one decent argument for Alka having been scum, and then dismissed it because the plot seems too convoluted. The thing is, the plot I’m suggesting happened isn’t unlikely or complicated at all!
Consider for a moment that Alka/RyJae is scum, and got ANY protector role. What would be the best way for Alka/RyJae to convince everyone he’s town?
I submit that it would be to forego a night kill, and claim there were no deaths because his protection was successful.
Do you disagree that this would be a relatively simple way to gain trust with town? Do you also disagree that if you assume that my argument is correct, Alka and RyJae appear to have played exactly in the way you would expect?
A town Alka wouldn’t have claimed physician when he did, because only scum benefits from knowing that the physician does not have the antivenom. Furthermore, a town Alka would have been killed by scum that night, because then nobody (I assume including even the poison target, based on the poison rules wording) would have seen the signs of poisoning. Keep in mind that the poison signs are visible ONLY if the physician is alive, and it does not matter whether the physician is scum or town in order to see the signs.
Finally, I don’t like RyJae’s tone while trying to counter my argument. He basically says “how am I supposed to account for what Alka did?” He’s trying to draw a distinction between himself and Alka, when they are for all intents and purposes the same person in this game.
Yes, that’s exactly what Kelly should do if he thinks Ender is scum. Trouble is, I didn’t say Kelly was “trying to make him look bad”, I said…
If someone has a valid reason to suspect another player, then of course they should bring it up – that’s the entire point of the game. But what Kelly did was to make a clearly false allegation. Ender was not “being too helpful”, he made a pretty basic post.
Non-rhetorical question: Do you see anything in this post that “seemed way too helpful”?
NETA: And now that I look back, I see I made an error – Kelly didn’t vote for Ender, he FOS’d him for that comment.
However, my suspicions stand as he did vote for Tengu – for saying “we” when referring to town. Sorry, but Kelly has been using exceptionally weak reasoning to justify these votes.
…what it actually looks like is that I think Ender (and, by association, Tengu) were being railroaded by Kelly, or baselessly smudged at the very least. Your whole “Ender or Scum” certainty and mischaracterization of my case against Kelly (which is pretty clear when one reads my entire “offending” post) are coming off as seriously hinky.
Well, I’ve read the entire thread, made notes on everything I’ve wanted to, and… it’s time to go to work. Sorry that I’ve been busier than usual this week, right as I volunteered to sub in. My participation will be back up to my usual levels soon.
Tonight, I’m working until midnight on a shoot. It’ll be both fun and exhausting, so I’m gonna have to renege on my promise to have a substantive post today. Good thing day doesn’t end tomorrow.
I didn’t dismiss your idea because it was too complicated; in fact, I didn’t dismiss it at all. I simply said that it wasn’t compelling enough to get my vote. My point was that although I had no arguments that suggested any of your points were false, there didn’t seem to be any particular reason that they were very likely to be true.
Sure, it’s perfectly plausible that Scum didn’t act on Night 1, and that **Alka **delayed his claim until such time as it would be non-questionable…but why is it more likely that scenario is true, than the scenario where Alka is a Town Doctor as he claimed?
Having said that, you’ve brought up something ‘new’ in your last post that I hadn’t considered:
Loking back at Alka’s claim (Post 558), it doesn’t seem that Town gained a lot from his claim; they knew that he protected on Night 1, and he gives us some information regarding the wording of PMs. On the other hand, he does tell Scum that they need fear neither the Antivenom nor his protection, the former being not in play and the latter already used. All in all his claim does seem to benefit Scum.
But I’m not so sure that he would have been a lock as the Scum kill last Night. Having not selected the Antivenom, and having already used his power, he’d be little threat to Scum. You mention that the Scum should have killed him so that the poison would have been undetectable, but why bother? If the Antivenom is not in play, whats the harm to Scum in the Poison being detected? There’s nothing Town can do to stop in anyway; the only effect would be to effectively confirm the Poisonee as Town (or not, if you believe the possible scenario that RyJae pointed out).
And there’s always the possibility that Alka/Ryjae is Town, but that his claimed power usage was WIFOM, in an attempt to make the Scum think he was powerless. I think that **RyJae’s **actions Today pretty much guarantee that was not the case, but we do have to take that possibility into consideration when talking about the Scum’s actions last Night, because they would have needed to consider it then.
This post wandered a bit as I was writing it, but I think I still come to the same conclusion I had before. You make some good arguments against Alka Seltzer/RyJae, but I’m not convinced that they’re right. I don’t think you’re making them up (i.e. that you are Scum); I’m just not convinced that you’re reasoning is correct. And as I like my case against **Hal **better, I’m keeping my vote there.
Whether you’re accusation regarding **Kelly **was that he was
“trying to make Ender look bad”
or if it was that he was
“going out of his way to make Ender look bad”
my point was that you seem certain that Ender is ***not ***bad. And that apparent certainty makes me think you know something that you shouldn’t if you were Town.