So, let’s pretend Suburban is dead. Who would we vote for instead?
Since I’m willing to give Hal a chance, I’d have to go with Babale and Enderw24. I can’t remember any particulars, I just remember being pinged a fair amount while compiling my vote chart. I’m going to revisit him in-depth tonight after work and actually bring a case to the table, if I’m still pinged after rereading him.
I’m still moderately suspicious of Alka/RyJae, but I’d have to move him to third behind those dudes.
Well, at least you both have good reasons for voting me. Wait…no, you don’t.
“It’s the best lynch for the Day” - Well, I’d hope so…I wouldn’t expect you to vote for someone that you think we *shouldn’t *lynch.
“Seems to be what the cool kids are doing.” - I don’t think this requires further comment.
At least Stanislaus provides some reasoning, even if it is completely wrong. A bunch of people jumped on my bandwagon right away Today. The only possibility in your mind for that is “The Scum know they’ve been caught out so they don’t *wan’t *to provide a defense”? How about “The Scum know Suburban is Town, so they don’t *need *to put up a defense”?
I reviewed Stanislaus’ voting history, and I don’t like what I found.
Day 1
Visorslash ([del]98-226[/del]) - 1st vote on Visor
Hal Briston ([del]144-246[/del]) - 1st vote on Hal
Snickers (226) - 2nd vote on Snickers
Final Vote Visor-8, Snickers-3
Day 2
Suburban Plankton ([del]313-362[/del]) - 1st and only vote on Suburban
Inner Stickler (375) - 1st vote on Inner
Final Vote Texcat-8, MHaye, Inner-3
Day 3
Inner Stickler ([del]483-510[/del]) - 1st vote on Inner
Enderw24 ([del]483-510[/del]) - 1st vote on Ender
Babale ([del]483-576[/del]) - 1st vote on Babale
gnarlycharlie ([del]483-576[/del]) - 1st vote on gnarly
Alka Seltzer ([del]510-576[/del]) - 1st vote on Alka
fubbleskag (576) - 3rd vote on fubbleskag
Final Vote fubbleskag-6, Kelly-5
Day 4
Mahaloth ([del]667-689[/del]) - 1st and only vote on Maha
Hal Briston (667) - 1st vote on Hal
Enderw24 ([del]668-689[/del]) - 1st and only vote on Ender
Final Vote Kelly-6, Hal-4
That’s a whole lot of ‘first votes’ on people…and somehow he’s managed to end the Day with a vote on the runner-up 3 times out of 4. This strikes me as someone who’s not particularly concerned about who gets lynched, with the added bonus that he can point back and show how he wasn’t responsible for lynching all those Townies…
**vote Stanislaus **
Though I’m not really sure right now whether he’s Scum or if he’s a PFK…
Day 1
136 - thinks all the investigators should act Night 1. votes Visorslash for the ‘incorrect ratio thingy’
180 - questions Hal’s no-lynch vote
Night 1
No Posts
Day 2
349 - votes TexCat for trying to steer investigators away from Visor voters. Believes Mosier’s claim
354 - on why he believe’s Mosier’s claim: “I just do.”
365 - further confirmation: “It’s a gut feeling and no confirmation back-up from me.”
372 - FOS KellyCriterion for posting before reading all of Day 2
Night 2
461 - comment on Miller roles (which he misunderstood in this game)
Day 3
516 - denies Ender’s comment that he and Kelly are “friends and happy to be in the same game together”. Votes Alka Seltzer for “suspicion spraying”
517 - corrects formatting error in vote in post 516
521 - replies to Alka saying he is skimming and his vote was lazy: “No, I’m not and no it isn’t.”
565 - Unvotes Alka. Votes Kelly “for voting for Alka without commenting on the claim”. Votes Ender “For trying to group me with Kelly.”
572 - comments on Ender saying his was an OMGUS vote: “No.”
580 - defends his vote on Kelly
Night 3
No Posts
Day 4
662 - asks if fubbleskag had told us if he had learned anything with is power (He had; Mahaloth apparently posted before he had read all of the Day)
681 - Votes Kelly for “identical reasons to yesterDay”
Night 4
Day 5
812 - Votes Suburban: “It’s the best lynch for the Day.”
He’s only partially engaged in the game, he’s offered practically no justification for his votes, he’s skimming, he’s been hypoctritical (about skimming)…it’s almost too obvious…but sometimes things are exactly what they appear to be…
I agree with all of the above, except for the conclusion you drew. What exactly does Mahaloth appear to be?
He played the same way in the pizzagame, btw. He signs up for Mafia and then doesn’t put the same effort into it that most other players do. Yes, he is exactly what he appears to be-which is a disinterested player who makes confused posts because he isn’t actually following the game.
So looking through the voting records, I see that Suburban Plankton voted for Town members Days 1 and 2 and then Hal Briston Days 3 and 4.
I can’t completely fault his bad voting record. I’ve had a pretty crappy voting record too. Hell, most people in this game have as it’s now approaching the end of Day 5 with no scum kills.
Suburban has voted late on some days but not all. Usually when the balance tipped and the vote no longer mattered.
But overall neither of these things are definitive for me. The only clue we have to go on is that he didn’t get killed last night. We have a claim by Suburban which would not only explain why Hal couldn’t kill him, but would ALSO explain why scum didn’t kill anyone. So far, I haven’t heard any competing theories as to why there was no scum kill last night which is something that needs to be answered if we’re looking to lynch Suburban.
If he turns up scum, awesome. But right now I’m not convinced and I can’t vote for him regardless of whether my vote means anything at this point.
So I turn my attention to someone else: gnarlycharlie.
Looking at the votes I see three things:
Every one of gnarly’s votes from Days 1-4 ended up being Town (Snickers x3 until Snickers ended up dying and Kelly).*
Everyone who at some point voted for Gnarly has either turned up Town or I strongly suspect of being Town.
On two Days (1 & 4) Gnarly was the last to cast his vote.
He’s also made a claim. As the second investigator to target Stanislaus, his claim is somewhat safe. As Scum, he’d have already known that and it provides no other useful information while keeping him safe.
There’s a mitigating factor in that he was the first to use the term “Brotherhood of the Rose” which was later confirmed by Fub who was Town to be a legit phrase. However, we don’t know whether scum can use their “power” and have a fake PM sent by Story to help them cover their tracks. Overall, this bit of information doesn’t get gnarly a pass.
So I’m willing to hear some legitimate rationales for voting for Suburban. But right now: **Vote gnarlycharlie **
*Oh and as a side note, Snickers the Knight died, his power used. And yet, I don’t think there was any discussion at all as to who Snickers was guarding and whether he or she was the intended target!
Suburban, re: Stanislaus: do you also suspect MHaye, who reported that the cloak was not in play?
Because actually, that wouldn’t be a terrible gambit for scum. Risky, but rewarding. Gotta weigh up how likely that is, I guess.
I’m still confused by what happened last Night, and I’m not comfortable with the level of discussion we’ve had. Not enough of us have weighed in. I’ve thrown out a few half-cocked theories, but I don’t think I’ve quite hit what happened yet.
If Suburban protected himself as he claims, where did the scum kill go? Why would scum attack Suburban, when Hal has already said he was going to?
I find myself revisiting my Hal Briston theory. I’m already suspicious of him, I already think he’s a threat to town, and it ties up all the loose threads neatly. But I’m biased, because I already suspected him.
There are quite a few of us who are voting Suburban without discussing these issues, and that bothers me. It makes me question how honest these votes are, and it makes me rethink my own vote.
Scum don’t want to vote for Town if they can help it. Much better, especially if you’re in such a lead, to vote someone else so they can prove their bona fides when you role flip. Heck, they could even vote for a fellow Scum - there’s potentially a lot of cred there. But you racked up to 7 votes (I think) without a hint of that happening. Why?
The converse of the above - if you are going to go down as scum, your team might as well get the votes in on you and look good.
Of the two situations, we seem to be much nearer the latter than the former.
If **Stanislaus **is Scum, then that would be pretty damning to MHaye, since I can think of no reason other than the Cloak to account for the investigation results on him.
If Stanislaus is 3rd party/PFK, then I think that says nothing about MHaye, since I think (based on **Hal’s **claim) that an investigation of him would return ‘Town’.
I don’t have any particular suspicions of MHaye at this point. I think that I don’t agree with you that “that wouldn’t be a terrible gambit for scum”. I think the risk outweighs the reward be a fair amount. So by that token, I guess I’m saying I think Stanislaus is 3rd-party/PFK.
And between Hal and Stanislaus, I’d say it’s much more likely that Hal is 3rd Party and Stanislaus is PFK, rather than the other way around. I am assuming that there would be one of each, for no other reason than that seems to me to be the ‘better way’ to do it.
If SP is Town, and self-protected then either
a) Scum also went after SP, which would just be carelessness or
b) Scum went after someone else, who also protected.
c) A blocker hit scum.
We’ve got a claimed Physician and Prioress power-use, which leaves the Merchant and the Monk as protectors. So if they haven’t already used their power on visor or possibly me then it’s possible one of them decided they trusted SP more than Hal.
If SP is Scum then
a) Scum used the Hawk
b) As above - two leftover protector roles (SP is still Prioress) and a good guess.
c) As above - a blocker.
I’m ruling out c) because anyone who blocked scum on an NK night did well and should be telling us about it.
I don’t see any other options than protectors for non-scum kill.
Mosier
Hal Briston
Astral Rejection
Inner Stickler
Mahaloth
which of those are the Scum who are currently bussing me?
I’m excluding Visorslash as he’s mod-confirmed, and I’m excluding you because I don’t expect you to out yourself at this time (though if you’d like to, please feel free :))
Inner; gnarly (who unvoted you having jumped on early, and who you left off); maybe Hal
Ender is the scum voting for fellow scum in order not to be seen bussing you.
You’ve hinted in several posts now about my scumminess. I’ll wait if/when you made a formal claim against me to respond more fully as then I’ll know what issues you have. But I’ll just say right now that your analysis on my votes in 772 isn’t terribly productive. On Day 2 you state that I could be doing it to shift votes away from Inner which wasn’t my intent at all. On Day 3, you conveniently find an excuse to ignore the voting on Fubbleskag, which, hey, you happened to vote for, in order to concentrate on Kelly in an attempt to bring my name up again.
Anyway, as I said, if you have doubts about my “towniness” just let me know. Otherwise, we cool.
so what about me is scummy, my voting record or my claim?
let’s look at your arguments:
my voting record
i voted for town 4x - to be accurate, i only voted for 2 townies. you make it sound that i voted for more even if you qualified it later in parentheses. now, is town voting for town unusual? it happens all the time. if you really are serious about this line of reasoning, wouldn’t Inner Stickler be more suspicious? he voted for Mosier, Texcat, fubbleskag and KellyCriterion. three are town and one is very likely town.
everyone who voted me was town - which means what? dead townies do not make correct townies. notice how Visorslash, Texcat, fubbleskag and KellyCriterion? furthermore, in my experience, scum will kill players to throw suspicion on the players the dead ones voted for. also, adding that players you think are town have voted for me is very flawed logic. so why don’t we all just vote who Visorslash votes for?
i was last to cast my vote - how is that scummy? were they controversial? was i not consistent in my voting especially for Snickers? i often vote or post late. it’s due to my time zone. i’m opposite EDT. most of you are asleep when i’m up. i have no one to “talk” to.
my claim
i really don’t understand the argument. it was easy to make my claim and it’s actually “legit” so i am scum.
often town will vote based on misguided notions or misinterpretations. Ender’s logic is made to appear to be based on rigorous voting analysis. however when examined his post is a blatant mischaracterization of the facts.
for that i will return the favor and Vote Enderw24.
additional thoughts:
if Suburban Plankton is scum, it would imply that Hal also is unless someone else protected Suburban and hasn’t admitted it. the Hawk could have been used or a protector turned scum used the Memento.
if Stanislaus is scum, Mhaye would be too for saying that the Cloak wasn’t in play.
on preview, i see that others have expressed what similar thoughts.
I went back and reviewed yesterday as I planned. I wound up about as confused as I was when I started. I sat down to write something, but did not really have any idea where to start. So I decided I needed to come at this from a different angle. So I looked at this:
So we essentially have 6 unclaimed players (technically Visor is unclaimed, but we know he is definitely Town). That means if I assume all the claims are true (which I do not), then the four scum would have to come from the following:
I have seen enough evidence that I am convinced that Stanislaus is not a member of the scum team (though I will entertain Suburban’s theory that he might be some sort of third party). I am getting a Townie read from Astral (though I want to be careful here, our Townie read of Stanislaus caused us to lose the Dee’ndee game). I know I am not scum, so of the unclaimed that leaves Mahaloth, Inner Stickler, and Babale. I have already aired my suspicions of Babale. Mahaloth could go either way, but I do fear that scum may just be sitting back and watching Town go after each other. I will need to go back and look closer at Inner Stickler. I don’t really remember reading anything by him that struck me as particularly scummy at the time, but I haven’t really looked at him all that closely. I did think he might have been trying to save scum buddy Kelly with his vote on fubbleskag, but that was obviously not the case.
Anyway, I doubt that all four of Mahaloth, Inner, Babale, and Astral are scum, so that would mean that there is scum among the claimed. So which claims do I believe.
I have already explained why I tend to think gnarlycharly is claiming honestly. It is certainly possible that he is scum, but I put him behind several other claimants in suspicion.
While I disagreed with Mosier about it being likely that RyJae is scum, I do think he is more likely to be scum that gnarly. Mosier’s theory is plausible and while I don’t think it the most likely, I can’t dismiss it completely.
Suburban has claimed prioress which matches the events that have been claimed, but he did offer several other explanations first, then only claimed when he was far and away the lynch leader. His claim comes under the most suspicious circumstances, so for that reason I trust his the least.
I need to place Ender in the same category as Inner as someone I need to go back and take a closer look at. His claim would be easy enough to fake, but I also don’t see any real reason for him to do so at the time.
I don’t really have any doubts that Mosier is the Seraph.
MHaye’s claim makes me lean slightly Town on him. I probably find him more suspicious than gnarly, but less so than any of the others that I am suspicious of.
Whether Hal is being completely honest with us or not, I do believe that he is some sort of third party player. Since he is not Town and has admitted having kills available, I would have no problem lynching him. That is obviously not happening toDay, though.
So, I need to go back and look at Inner Stickler and Enderw24 closer, but in the meantime
Vote Suburban Plankton
I just find his claim the most suspicious under the most suspicious circumstances.
Babale or Hal would be my second choices for toDay.
Also, I haven’t yet taken the time to look closely at the vote record, but thanks to Astral and Stanislaus for posting the complete record. That will make it much easier.
Rereading Today just now, I realised that I seem to have lost the plot somewhere, and have a screwed-up estimate of the gamestate. I’ve been thinking that there were less living players than there actually are, don’t ask why. (I did have a worry Yesterday that we were heading into a Doomsday scenario where the Brotherhood won at Dawn today, but it required several things that turned out wrong, and also no more than 13 players.)
Also, someone’s turned the flamethrower on, and the heat does bad things to my brain. (Maybe I have a little bit of Detritus in me.)
I need to reread the close of Yesterday again, but I have to say that the person I think most likely to be Brotherhood right now is Hal Briston - because I don’t believe his claim at all. However, before voting for him, I need to reread at least Day 4, and I can’t do that for a few hours. Food and jobsearching call.
One thing I noted rereading Today was that Suburban’s claim was dilatory. He floated ideas that, if he is claiming truly, he must have known were false. That makes me more content with SP as the lynch Today, and may even shed a little light on whether Hal is truthful. After all, the only plank this case has is that Hal claimed he tried to kill SP last Night, and if Hal is a lying liar who lies, he probably lied about that too.
Vote Suburban Plankton
If SP is in fact in the Brotherhood, then surely the Prioress is as well; if the Prioress is not in the Brotherhood and SP is, that risks a counterclaim.
I’ll be back after I’ve reread Day 4. However, to note; if Stanislaus turns up Brotherhood, then suspicion is bound to fall on me. In a case of me vs the rules
I added the bold to the first quote. You’re smelling fishy with that comment. I also believe Mosier is town, but I am in no way sure of that. And the switcheroo, why jump on the bandwagon? It doesn’t help town, even if SP is scum he has the votes, go for another scum unless you don’t want your vote records to haunt you.
Saying that, I want to vote for Gnarly since he is the only person to make obvious scum signs. Everyone knows I think gnarly is scum, so if I die they know where I stand on that. His lynch is highly unlikely I want another unlikely lynch vote on record. vote Stanislaus
I am not comfortable with your guiding the game, using statements such as the Mosier is town as fact. That is scary. I am way way way less confident in you being scum than gnarly though. But my vote stands.