MAFIA: The Road to Canterbury - Game Thread

The Game Room
961

welcome to my world. Enjoy the ride.

I stand by my rationale for my Day 1 vote. First of all, at that point the game was so new to everyone there really wasn’t a more likely candidate. But understand that it wasn’t just a new game in general. This is my first game of Mafia and that Day was literally the first vote I had in the game. So here I am in a game that people warned at the outset would take upwards of 2-3 months and think carefully about whether you want to participate and within the first few days we get somebody that appeared to not even want to play anymore? Yeah, that frustrated me, and pushed me to cast my first vote, on top of all the other reasons I cited.

I was engaging in a bit of hyperbole. But still, the build-up very quickly was about postponing the investigation results despite the overwhelming talk on Day 1 (aside from voting) was about the investigations. So I just found it funny the conversation had taken a 180 turn despite now having the first usable evidence in the game to share. So I wanted to goad a few people and see what happens. What happened is that people reacted and then we got some usable data. Also, I explained a bit about my thinking in this post: QUOTE=Enderw24;15230133]Well I haven’t done an analysis of who said what when , but I think we’d find something revealing if we look at those who advocated for all investigators to investigate N1 and compare it to those who are now advocating that investigators not say anything.

For instance, if you’re currently advocating that investigators not reveal themselves and on D1 your position was for investigators to not investigate (either all of them or any of them), that shows a pattern of wanting town to remain in the dark.
[/QUOTE]

My objection with TexCat wasn’t her no-lynch vote. It was that vote combined with the vote for Visor, which made no sense and still doesn’t.

I disagree. I think any false claim carries with it a huge risk in that getting caught means the jig’s up.

I explained my reasoning on this back when I advocated for it, and I stand by that reasoning. But I’ll say two things. One, I’ll reiterate that I wasn’t just going after you, MentalGuy. Also, we still don’t know, to this day, whether Visor has his power back. So I don’t think I was too far wrong to tell people not to put their eggs in that particular basket.

I can’t argue with you. It makes me look bad. It makes Alka/Ryjae and Babale look bad too, but there’s nothing I can do to change it. But I can say I was the first to post it. When I noticed it this afternoon, I wasn’t going to shy away from throwing a theory out there even if it put me in a bad light, as long as it got us to look at two other, equally culpable people. I know I’m town, even if some people don’t yet believe it.

962

Doh! My appologies; that’s what I get reading from a phone. I saw your post damning me, Visor’s post claiming you were bussing me or looking to a wagon, and assumed you cast a vote. In that case, Invite Ender. My appologies.

In that case, my vote for Hal still stands.

963

Oh, this doesn’t mean I TRUST Ender. I may still place a vote on him later on. But what made me go for an early vote was his vote for me.

964

i think that’s premature. also, it seems to good to be true that he’s scum. that would mean Mhaye is too for lying that the Cloak wasn’t in play. that would mean we have the rest of the scum team. it can’t be that simple, can it?

965

A booming voice echoes from the sky, or possibly from a nearby loudspeaker.

PLEASE BE REMINDED THAT PRIVATE MESSAGING BETWEEN ACTIVE PLAYERS IN THE GAME IS CONTRARY TO THE SPIRIT OF THIS GAME. FUTURE VIOLATIONS WILL RESULT IN IMMEDIATE MOD-KILL. PLEASE DON’T DO THIS.

966

If we lynch MHaye (or have him killed) we can confirm Stanislaus. It does sound too easy though.

967

Well. Thinking on it a little. Sub claimed Prioress. No-one else claimed prioress. That means that prioress is most likely a scum role unless someone is inactive.

That really does point to MHaye and Stanislaus being scum, especially because Prioress is the last claimable role.

However, in case the above is wrong, I think we should vote MHaye, because if he turns up town, then Stanislaus is town.

Unvote; Vote: MHaye

Can anyone suggest to me why we should not lynch MHaye? Hal, Astral, etc?

968

That’s not a bad approach at all.

We know (with a reasonable amount of certainty) that there is scum in the group of Babale, MentalGuy, Astral Rejection and Stanislaus. If we misynch MHaye, then it would be no different than mislynching any of the others except Stanislaus will then be confirmed – something that would not be the case if we targeted one of the other suspects.

But if MHaye flips scum, then we can end this the following Day. I’m down.

Vote MHaye

969

Lynching MHaye makes a lot of sense from a strategy point of view. It’ll give us, once and for all, a cleared town with no questions remaining, should he flip town. I believe we only have two mislynches left, however. How sure are we that he could be scum? He’s been off our radars for a while now. And should he flip town, we’d better be right about our next lynch.

However, there’s no reward without some risk, right? I don’t think this would be terrible for us, provided we don’t stop scum hunting toDay. Once the lynch is secured, people have a tendency to check out of the game for a while, and at this stage of the game, that would be pretty terrible for us.

Let me ponder it some more. In the meantime, Unvote Enderw24. He had no vote to unvote, which invalidates some of my case. I’m still not buying his case on Babale, but I want to revisit this after doing some reading.

970

Stanislas posted a compelling reason as to why a town prioress might not counterclaim Suburban. Subs was definitely going down. And further, it really does seem to me that scum are more likely to pick a town role to claim, rather than one of their buddies. Why ruin your partner’s claim, if you could cast doubt on someone else? Especially when you get to talk it out amongst yourselves?

And just like that, I’ve talked myself out of the MHaye lynch strategy. It feels like a waste of a lynch.

971

I want to revisit this because I don’t think it’s been fully looked at. Stanislaus you are correct in one regard. Scum that are on a runaway train to lynchville have every incentive to do whatever they can to stave off the votes. If that means lying about a claim, they’ll do it. But it just seems so weird that someone would claim your role and you wouldn’t speak up and say he’s lying? I get the rationale you’re using for not speaking (which I’ll examine below), but what if it worked? What if we believed Suburban and votes started dropping off? What was your plan then? It appears to us as if you were perfectly content to keep town in the dark on this. That just seems so odd and wrong.

OK, so you had your reasons. But I think, upon examination, your rationale doesn’t hold up.

  1. If Prioress were Town, Suburban would be taking the Hail Mary of claims. I mean, he’d have to know someone would stand up and say “yeaaaaah, no. He’s lying. I’m Prioress.” And if we trusted the second claim (which we almost certainly would have with you), it wouldn’t have helped Suburban at all. But if Prioress is scum, now Suburban’s got a chance of making his claim work.

  2. Scum may not have the bloody spear.

  3. Even if scum did have the bloody spear, there’s no reason to specifically target self-protective roles like Prioress above any other player, especially when the Prioress may have already used its power! Seriously, think about it. Even if scum knew you were Prioress they still don’t have no way of knowing whether your power is active or not. So, again, why target you?

  4. So Suburban the scum is on a runaway vote. He’s going to get lynched. He has the bloody spear. He really really really wants to target the Prioress. All this follows from your line of reasoning. And he knows that there are four players left unclaimed. So why didn’t he use the bloody spear yesterday?

Seriously. Let’s look through this all. You sit there quietly while he claims your role. You do this because you say you didn’t want to get impaled by the bloody spear. But there’s no proof that scum has the bloody spear and there’s no proof that scum would target the Prioress above anyone else. But if scum wanted to, he’d have like a 1/4 or 1/3 chance of hitting Prioress just by guessing.

Look, if you’re scum, I’m assuming that Suburban probably did his claim without discussing it with any other Scum and you’re scrambling to come up with a retroactive rationale that makes some kind of sense. But unfortunately it doesn’t.

I’ve been holding off voting for you, even after your weird vote against fub a few days ago, simply because it seemed so improbable. It still does. Look, we know Fub was town and he said you’re not scum. So the only way for you to be scum is if both you and MHaye are scum, someone picked the Cloak, you’ve used the Cloak on yourself, you were then chosen by a Townie to be investigated, and MHaye could come in to corroborate the truthfulness of Fub (and gnarly’s) result.

That seems just so improbable. Not impossible. but improbable. Which is why I’ve held off for so long. But I guess now I’m looking for a better explanation.

VOTE MHaye
VOTE Stanislaus

972

Yes, I’mthe Prioress.

What Astral said -MHaye and I are bad lynches.

973

Has your power been used?

974

My apologies, great voice from the sky who sounds awful lot like The Poet.
I really didn’t know it was against the rules to PM anyone or I’d never have done it. Won’t happen again.

975

There is the sound of a large throat clearing.

THE VOICE FROM THE SKY OR POSSIBLY A NEARBY LOUDSPEAKER ACCEPTS YOUR CONTRITION. AS PENANCE, HOWEVER, YOUR DUCK WILL BE CONFISCATED.

976

I would prefer that Hal take out MHaye toNight, though I know we have no way to force him to do that. If Visor has reclaimed his pardoning power, then I don’t mind lynching MHaye and having Visor pardon him. That way we get confirmation without actually wasting a lynch.

I just have trouble believing that MHaye lied about the cloak, knowing that it would put another scum on the line if he got killed.

977

Can somebody go find the post where Astral claimed merchant, so he isn’t just making it up (I believe you, but better to be sure).

I’m about to talk myself out of the MHaye/Stan lynch as well actually. Looking suspisciously at Ender/Babale and RyJae. Hal, thoughts on killing any of them?

978

Can you give your reasoning for being fairly certain there is scum in that group? Why are gnarlycharlie, Ryjae, and Enderw24 excluded?

979

The only way that Hal can take out MHaye is if MHaye is town because if he’s scum he’s protected by the Seraph.

But I like your other line a lot, assuming we can do it. If we can lynch and pardon MHaye we’ll know his allignment. If he’s scum, I’d say that’s about 90% conclusive that Stanislaus is scum too. Which means the game ends in two more Days with a town win. And if he’s Town, we’ll be 100% positive that both he and Stanislaus are town, which goes a long way towards narrowing down the rest of the scum.

980

I can do that. It’s all the way back here: