Damn. All that blood’s going to be a bitch to get out of the sheets.
Your vote was on choie, only one vote away from the leaders, so she might have become Lynchee in the end-game. Less forgivable, IMHO, were those not voting at all, or, perhaps, voting for a one-off. To me it seems anti-Town to abstain with this tie. Instead, players should have made their best guess at Scum, broken the tie, and hoped for a revealing sequence of further votes.
I think Gregorio must have been Vig-killed. Why would Scum NK a Lurker? I don’t blame Vig for killing him, but blame Gregorio for lurking, especially given posts suggesting Vig should kill lurkers.
I’m less suspicious of PCM now; his latest posts seem to have a strong ring of sincerity. I want to focus instead on the anti-Town non-voters (and perhaps one-off voters). Scum would have been delighted to hide in this group, especially if, as it appears, all 3 Lynch candidates were Townies.
:snipped:
I think so, too. Wouldn’t this indicate a town-alligned vigilante, then? I don’t think a scum team would have much motivation to get rid of lurkers. Nor would a SK, right?
I have just manged to get on the net for a bit. I am sorry we lost the Cop but I didn’t even realise that Gregorio was playing! I agree that it looks like a Vig kill, why would scum waste a NK on a lurker.
I wonder how wevets was killed? I have never played with a bodyguard in the game before so I am not sure of all the ins and outs of that particular role. Am I correct in thinking that he could have been Night Killed or killed while protecting someone else?
I will try and get make soon but it’s quite difficult on a little island in the middle of the Indian Ocean, I will be home before EOD so I will definitely get a vote in.
well most of the commentary on the nights results has been made, but just as a “me to”
- Crap we lost the cop
- As per Guri, Gregorio is likely a town vig, or a serial killer looking for a possible town vig claim later.
- Can’t see any reason for scum to kill a lurker, unless they had additional information, but as we started in day, and I am assuming scum have no day powers, so they didn’t have any extra info.
- my geuss would be wevets was killed due to the more town sheen he had as part of the 3 lynch candidates, I fully expect a scum smudging today. As others have said there is a possibility he died protecting someone else, I really doubt there is any way we will know short of there being some town tracker/watcher who saw the way it went down.
Today, time for a reread, and no doubt we will end up discussing lynch the lurker.
Just my $0.02 - I think the more likely scenario is one in which scum killed **wevets **directly on the assumption that he was a vanilla townie. It is not clear to me who wevets would have been protecting, and the odds that **wevets **would have been protecting someone and scum picked just that player are low, given that no one clearly stood out as being in need of protection from scum killing. It’s just not clear to me how both scum and **wevets **would have converged on someone to protect/kill on the basis of the thread. To be sure, I take it that wevets would not have been aware of power roles beyond what he could read in the thread. Besides, the miain candidates for protection would have been the cop, who ended up getting killed. A doctor would have probably self-protected at this stage, so if wevets was protecting anyone he was probably not doing it right. Perhaps **wevets **should have just self-protected (if that is possible).
So working on the assumption that **wevets **got picked out by scum directly, this would presumably have had something to do with his almost-lynching, but I can’t really figure out why scum would be interested in lynching him. After all, the town clearly had a bit of a scum-lean on him given that he got three votes to lynch him, making him tied for a lynch with **fisha **and PCM. Why would scum kill off someone that they know town falsely suspects? PCM could have saved himself but did not, which gives him a claim to townness, but this was not true for wevets so in the absence of his lynching the suspicions on the part of those who voted for him should have persisted I think.
Perhaps this is a reason to re-evaluate the possibility that **wevets **was protecting someone. Another option that is in the realm of possibility but that seems insanely unlikely, is that:
- wevets was killed by a vig killing a lynch candidate who got away, finishing the town’s work
- gregorio was killed by a serial killer trying to make his kill look like a vig kill
- A scum kill was thwarted by scum ineptness or by a doctor or roleblocker preventing a scum kill from going through.
PCM I think, as stated here http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14524071&postcount=391 .
But obviously, I’d read the EOD by then so it’s probably biased.
** vote Inner Stickler **
He’s posted loads, but the vast majority of it is basic mafia strategy to help the people asking questions. Which is very good scum strategy because he gets to be both loud and helpful without much risk.
Even his vote managed not to actually say anything too controversial, only repeating cases against other players.
**
Will Hirka T’Bawa be mod-killed if he continues not to post
**
It’s been suggested before that a common strategy for an SK is to emulate vig killings and then claim vig, it really depends on their wincon.
Well, focusing on Orcenio and Hirka won’t get you very far. Gregorio and fisha are dead so that leaves Scathach, GnarlyCharlie and Svejk, right? What are your thoughts?
How did you choose between them?
The island sounds nice. When you get a chance, I had a question for you:
This is the second or third time you’ve asserted this and, as has already been pointed out, it’s not true. PCM himself says he simply wasn’t around in time to change his vote. I agree that his comments about Wevets and his reason why he probably wouldn’t have changed his vote ring Townie but who knows what he would have done if he’d had the chance?
As for Wevets, we don’t know how his role works, he could have been a body guard for all Town (and thus the default N1 kill), he may have been linked to a single preselected player rather than being able to choose who to protect, someone may have redirected actions to him, he may just have got lucky (as per his role, not as a player), but being a scum kill would surprise me. Now, he may well have left some hint to his role, a breadcrumb or loaf, but I haven’t noticed anything in his posts that would make scum think he’s a doc or other protective role.
Did you give any reason for these unvotes? Was it just the implicit “I think the person I’m now going to vote for is scummier”?
Well, focusing on Orcenio and Hirka won’t get you very far. Gregorio and fisha are dead so that leaves Scathach, GnarlyCharlie and Svejk, right? What are your thoughts?
[/quote]
How am I in this group?
This is the second or third time you’ve asserted this and, as has already been pointed out, it’s not true. PCM himself says he simply wasn’t around in time to change his vote. I agree that his comments about Wevets and his reason why he probably wouldn’t have changed his vote ring Townie but who knows what he would have done if he’d had the chance?
[/quote]
Well if you agree then why are we arguing? If his vote rings town to you, then clearly it *is * true that he has a claim to townness. That is all I said in the post you quote, I did not say anything about whether I find that claim justified. Besides, to reiterate, I was not interested in saying too much about PCM in the first place but rather in contrasting his situation with that of the late wevets, who came close to being lynched and who during the night could not lay claim to anything exhonorating in the way that PCM could and did.
Why would a scum kill surprise you? From what I’ve read about body guards, all of the other scenarios that you list seem much less likely than a lucky scum kill.
I think he was counting you among the “one-offs” (i.e. people who were the sole voter of one suspect) rather than the “didn’t votes,” considering gnarlycharlie was a “one-off” voter too (he voted for Mahaloth).
That said, if he did mean the “one-offs,” then I should’ve been in there too with my solo vote for Inner Stickler.
The one-off vote.
OK, I read your post as “he chose not to change his vote”.
Scum tend to kill known or suspected power roles, players who pose a threat to them, and players who are either confirmed Town or considered Town by the majority and therefore unlikely to be mislynched. Wevets didn’t claim and I didn’t see any indication that he was a power role, his vote on Fluiddruid was random and the reasoning for the one on PCM didn’t appear to gain any traction, and I don’t think that the survivors of the three way tie would have become unlynchable.
You’re correct, I’m not sure how I managed it but I also missed Mahaloth.
Meh, now I remember, Mahaloth didn’t place a one-off vote, Astral unvoted Fubbles.
[spoiler]Day 1 Vote Count:
fisha (3): SilverJan(318), MentalGuy(323), InnerStickler(357)
Precambrian (3): [del]Astral(193-331)[/del], Septimus(214), Wevets(278), fubbleskag(359)
Wevets (3): fluiddruid(266), Precambrian(279), Astral(364)
Choie (2): Guiri(82), SpecialEd(351)
SilverJan (1): [del]Svejk(119-329)[/del], fisha(302)
InnerStickler (1): [del]Guiri(81-82)[/del], Choie(360)
SpecialEd (1): Svejk(361)
Fubbleskag (1): Mahaloth(235), [del]Astral(331-364)[/del]
Mahaloth (1): [del]MentalGuy(254-323)[/del], GnarlyCharlie(370)
Svejk (0): [del]Precambrian(136-310)[/del], [del]Mahaloth(159-235)[/del]
Fluiddruid (0): [del]Choie(207-360)[/del], [del]Wevets(219-278)[/del]
Not voting (4): Scathach, gregorio, Hirka T’Bawa, orcenio[/spoiler]
Anyway, the point of the question was that I’d like to hear how Septimus is getting along with his focus on that particular group of players.
bah.
well, it means I expect to find that you’re good at this game; haven’t decided yet if it means that you’re town or scum or has any relation to your alignment at all.
speaking of good players, I’m really impressed with Svejk; I would never have guessed him for a new player and he seems to have picked this up loads faster than me. admittedly, that could say more about me than him.
as I mentioned, it was well beyond my normal bed time at that point. I honestly have no recollection of how I chose between the three. picking randomly from the three doesn’t sound like something I would do - did PCM have more votes at that point than the other two? that sounds like something I would do in that situation. probably not the answer you’re looking for, was it?
see, I probably never would have come up with that on my own. my mafia experience so far has been limited to getting mis-lynched very early for being horrible at making my thoughts understood and that one time that I ruined Meeko’s first mafia game by misreporting my results as Town Cop. that still gives me fits of giggles when I think about it.
regarding the night activity, I think I’m in the camp that thinks the Cop was a lurker vig and that the bodyguard took a bullet for some lucky townie, based on the theories I’ve read so far.
oh and a shameless plug for a sdmb mafia related chrome extension I’m working on - looking for feedback/ideas: Mafia players: SD Mafia Tools (Chrome extension) - The Game Room - Straight Dope Message Board
Agreed about Svejk, impressive.
Fisha was in the lead when you voted although you may not have seen Inner’s vote which broke the 5? way tie 15 minutes before your post.
I think you cut your answer to my question about Astral. I ask about him because he put a lot of effort into his case against Wevets and you (almost) have a theory about big Day 1 cases.
I thought the incorrect results was an intentional ploy to draw out scum by their reactions!
I have a question for you and for others who are using this reasoning for casting votes:
What is the criterion for making this judgement. Is there a formula? Is it so many bit of game strategy over total number of posts? Did you actually go back and look or are you basing it on memory?
It strikes me as an easy way to cast a vote for someone who is posting about basic game strategy and being helpful, which, in my book are hardly Scum tells.
And I know it’s been sued before, but I tend to be suspicious with people who copy someone else’s bad reasoning for casting votes. It strikes me as even worse han using the bad reasoning in the first place.
:eek: