…And I just got to this post by fluiddruid where she makes exactly the same points I just did. Duh.
But she’s right, I think. So why are we still thinking there’s a Vig?
OOG: What a day at the pharmacy! We were broken into overnight, dang people smashing everything just so they can steal some drugs.. And then they don’t even get the good stuff!! All they took was Alzheimer drugs, cholesterol meds, and blood pressure (among other small stuff). Left all the Hydrocodone, Xanax, all the CII’s, and all the other good stuff! Just got off a 16 hour day, and I have to go back in 6 hours. I’ll probably pass out tomorrow after work, but I’ll be here Wed and Thursday.
I’ve been thinking about this too, I really think we have a SK. I really doubt we have a vig on our side. If we do, I think it might be important for him to claim, and publicly test the doc tonight. If so, we get two pretty much cleared townies, even if one of them (the vig) dies tonight… I think it would still be worth knowing.
Trepa, Order of operations question. If we do have a vig and a doctor, if the doc self protects, the vig targets him, and the scum NK the vig. Does the vig get his shot off? Not asking you to confirm anyone, just “if” we do, how would it resolve at night?
I’m really interested in what you think about the voting patterns. I’m honestly torn between keeping my vote on septimus or not. I honestly think he’s been behaving scummy, and the discrepancy in his role PM really make me question… But… He is a claimed doc without a counter claim… Really makes me not want to keep my vote on him. If he claimed anything else, I would probably keep my vote on him without question, but the doc? Though, I realize that if he was scum, that is probably what he is counting on.
I’m torn…
Švejk, thank you for that post. I’ve been looking for that point guide for a bit now. Looking at the points, I’m thinking your option one is most likely, with the minus of a vig, and a goon scum. So I’m thinking there is 2 goons, and 1 godfather most likely still remaining, along with a SK. So, that means of 12 people remaining, we have a 1/3 chance of lynching someone anti-town…
Clearly it was these thugs.
Mmmm possibly. What bothers me about the whole Doctor claim thing is that everything I’ve read indicates that a doctor should never claim unless his back is up against the wall. I looked at septimus’s claim; it was made at 2:30ish PM, about 21-22 hours before Day 2 ended. Is that late enough to justify a claim that should almost never be made?
“Okay, choie,” you may be asking: “so why is septimus not being counter-claimed?”
- Because he’s who he says he is, OR
- Because we don’t have a Doctor, OR
- Because we have a very smart Doctor who’s refusing to show his cards to scum despite the provocation.
Maybe #3 is the real reason why we didn’t have a second death last Night. Although it seems to me that a real doctor still safely incognito would’ve protected Guiri, who IMHO was the VIP of the game so far. So perhaps not.
#2 seems awfully unfair for a newbie game. Then again, maybe it wouldn’t have been unfair if it weren’t for our staggeringly bad luck: Trepa was kind enough to give us a bodyguard and Detective; it’s not his fault they were killed the first freakin’ night.
Finally, option #1. Well, in fairness, as much as I’ve been harping on septimus, this option is certainly possible. I tend to assume everyone except me is a really good player and thus I get suspicious of any deviations in expected play or stategy. But maybe the answer is as simple as septimus making a mistake in judgement by claiming, or at least in claiming too soon.
Trepa, Order of operations question (… snip)
I don’t think he’ll answer. But just in case he’s reading this, I’ll repeat my question from a day or so ago:
Trepa, can you please nudge Precambrianmollusc?
The longer this question is ignored, the more I suspect he’s scum and active in the scum board and thus deserves our attention.
Before I go to to bed, I wanted to list how I feel about the remaining players in the game. That way people know how I feel, and maybe I can be a sounding board for everyone else while I sleep and work tomorrow.
- Mahaloth: Strong Town, I haven’t gotten a “scummy” vibe from him, he’s played in this game like I’ve seen him in others when he was town.
- Scathach: Slight town, I still have my doubts from day 2, but she has been leaning town since then to me, plus she started the votes on Gnarly.
- precambrianmollusc No clue - Hasn’t posted at all since I started actually playing.
- Mentalguy: Strong Town, haven’t gotten a scummy vibe from him either, except maybe for his vote on Mahaloth yesterday. Over all though, been playing like he did last game when he was town, and has responded to accusations the same as he did before when town.
- Hirka T’Bawa: One hundred percent town. I have no doubts about him at all, and no one else should either.
- septimus: Claimed doctor, with a discrepancy in his claimed PM.
- choie: Slight town, she is playing like she did at the end of the last game, and is actually questioning and probing.
- Special Ed: Slight town, I was leaning slight scum to neutral until he voted for Gnarly making a three way tie, which I broke to send him to the lead and lynch a scum. Never would have happened if he didn’t make the tie in the first place.
- fubbleskag Claimed hider, for now, I’m willing to accept the claim.
- **Silver Jan ** Slight scum, can’t think of anything right now that makes me say she’s scum… however I can’t think of anything that makes me think she’s town. At this point in the game, that makes me think scum before anything else. When I have more time, I’ll be reading her much more closely.
- Svejk: Neutral, Would say slight scummy, but Scathach has become more town, and she was a large reason for my thinking Svejk was scum originally… I will keep an eye on him, but not enough for a FOS yet.
- fluiddruid: Medium town: Hasn’t done anything scummy in my eyes, and did follow me in the vote on Gnarly.
That is my current list. Right now, I’m leaning towards changing my vote to Silver Jan, though I want an opportunity to re read her before I do anything.
I just wrote a long reply and when I sent it the computer said “could not connect to this web page” grrrrrrrrr Why can’t Telkom fix DSL faults??? I am just going to rewrite my post in word and hopefully I won’t lose it this time, brb.
First of all, I think most of** Hirka**’s analysis comes from meta gaming which is difficult not to do but I don’t think too much emphasis should be placed on that. I don’t understand why he thinks everyone that voted for gnarly is Town, surely scum would be looking for some Town cred there?
Nothing that** Fubbles** has done so far has changed my gut feeling about him. Claiming an odd (even though real) role in the middle of the night was a bit funny. I am starting to think he did that so that he would have an excuse to be alive in the morning. Scum doesn’t usually NK their own.
Choie often puts herself down but I find her to be rather strong and opinionated (it’s not a slur on your RL peson, just your game styles so don’t take offense :)), she does have strong way about her and that’s a good thing but… she herself has even given reasons why she should be considered scummy. This could be WIFOM on her part. “Look, here are the reasons I should be considered scum but now that I have said them, I cannot possibly be scum” just paraphrasing here.
My list of suspects at the moment are:
- Fubbles
- Choie
- Hirka
Vote Fubbleskag
Ok, so I think it’s quite likely that there was at least one scum bussing gnarlycharlie for town cred.
Special Ed:
D1: Voted choie. Was voted by Svejk
D2. Voted fubbleskag. Was voted by gnarlycharlie
d3. Voted gnarlycharlie, was voted by Svejk
His day 2 is a little suspicous. Fubbleskag is an easy person to vote because he’s one of the more controversial players what with voting himself, claiming hider and voting no lynch on the first day. I think it’s easy for scum to throw a vote away on him that’s hard to argue with and relatively safe.
Looking at post numbers, gnarlycharlie seems to have voted him almost as a throwaway vote. There was no likelihood of special ed being lynched. So gnarly could have voted him to distance themselves with relatively low risk.
Hirka:
D1: absent
D2: Voted scathach
D3: Voted Svejk. Unvoted, moved to gnarlycharlie
D2 or three has been pretty much following the prevailing bandwagons. There’s a fair bit of safe voting there. I also don’t like his reason for voting Svejk because Astral said he was going to - it really looks like trying to plant a vote which won’t be questioned.
FluidDruid:
d1: Voted wevets. Was voted by choie and wevets.
d2: No vote (?)
D3: Voted fubbleskag. Unvoted,voted gnarlycharlie.
Switches between fubbleskag, who as I stated previously is an easy lynch, and then to gnarlycharlie.
Now I’ve managed to convince myself that they’re all scum :smack:
I’m going to vote special ed for the moment. I may switch after a reread but at the moment I’d be pretty happy lynching any of the three.
Thanks for making this list. I’d like to point out that you only scum leans on 2 people, out of 12, and those two are Silver Jan: “Slight scum, can’t think of anything right now that makes me say she’s scum… however I can’t think of anything that makes me think she’s town. At this point in the game, that makes me think scum before anything else.” and me: “Neutral, Would say slight scummy, but Scathach has become more town, and she was a large reason for my thinking Svejk was scum originally… I will keep an eye on him, but not enough for a FOS yet.”
At this stage in the game, when there’s at least three and possibly four scum out there, how can you have only 2 people that you suspect, and how come you only suspect them a little bit? I have to question your motivation for posting something that essentially says you think almost everyone is town when that clearly cannot be true.
You say this about Hirka, but I think it is more true about Special Ed, who said pretty much nothing else when he voted for me.
With one exception, I’ve no strong Scum suspects. The sudden switch to Gnarly at Day’s end was weird but I can’t figure out what clues that gives, if any.
As I’ve said already, it looked clear I was heading for a Lynch, and an earlier claim was better than a later claim for at least two reasons:
Let Town spend the Day’s remaining hours looking for a real Scum.
Give Town enough time to debate my claim, and perhaps urge a Vig to put it to the test.
Postponing the claim, and arguing in some other way against my Lynch was inappropriate for three reasons:
- I’ve never been able to sway Players with my words. (In recent games, I’ve been first to identify three Scum in three separate games: Blaster Master, metallic squink, storyteller. In each case the clues that made sense to me didn’t appeal to others, and the Lynches didn’t happen till others made cases.)
- Even if I could delay my Lynch without claiming, suspicions would continue to be a distraction and I’d probably have to claim the next Day anyway.
And, most important, - As I’ve explained twice already, I was out-of-touch at the time. The post in question was made at 2:03 AM my time. I then went to bed, got up early, and went straight to an appointment without breakfast. I did get a mid-day break, but spent it on Japanese restaurant lunch rather than Internet. (The waitress got my order wrong, but I didn’t even complain. Is that what Scum would do?
)
That you call attention to that time again after I already explained makes me think you’re skimming me, or pursuing a case without logic. “Proof” that I was without Internet can be found by clicking “View All Posts by Septimus.” You’ll see that the post in question was the only SDMB post I made during a period of more than 62 hours. (Check how often I post in daily political threads! Even if I’d had a Scummy reason to avoid Game Room, do you think I could resist participating in BBQ Pit? :dubious: )
(And BTW, if I were Scum, I’d write a long analysis of yesterDay’s Gnarly vote. I think I could fashion a convincing case for Special Ed and/or Mahaloth as being Scum just based on that vote. But in fact, I’m an honest Townie and can see such a case would ignore Wifoms and rely on slippery logic.)
Choie has voted Švejk staunchly despite that he pings Town as strongly as anyone; changed her tone; has pinged others; and is making an illogical case about my claim. My vote is clear:
Vote: choie
And, I see on preview, Choie addressing Hirka, "I have to question your motivation for posting something that essentially says you think almost everyone is town when that clearly cannot be true. " Very smudgy.
On another matter:
Doesn’t it just sound like the guy forgot what else he was supposed to get? 
Ooops! :smack: That was Svejk. :dubious:
Hirka, if they didn’t steal all the Alzheimer’s medication, can you e-mail me some?
Actually I’m more inclined to believe that at least one of the town power claims is false - and I’m leaning towards fubbles’s claim. What makes you believe that both claims are legit, when claiming a town power role can so obviously be a self-serving scum tactic, seeing as there’s no way for us to know for sure because our cop is dead and we probably don’t even have a vig. Septimus’s claim, at least, is timed in a way that is plausible - he was easily in lead for being lynched, he had 4 votes and there was less than 24 hours to go. Looks like a now-or-never thing to me, especially if we believe **Septimus **that he was travelling at the time, with spotty access to the internet, and in another (non-American) timezone. Between the votes, the internet access, the timing, I would say that if you are a town doc in those conditions it would be a smart thing to claim. (Of course, if you are a scum in those conditions it would also be a smart thing to claim :smack:). At any rate, I don’t think fubbleskag can tell a similar story of why he had to claim when he did, which makes me more suspicious of his claim.
As you’ve seen, that was me. What exactly do you mean by that being ‘smudgy’? I just find it odd (and therefore suspicious) that if I had to make up my mind I’d have scum leans on more people than can actually be scum, which I think is a productive approach, and Hirka thinks that out of 12 people 10 people are town, 1 is neutral to slight scum, and one is slight scum.
Wtf is this? The vote switch to gnarlycharlie was weird, but anyone examining it is totally scum you guys?
And what do you mean ignore wifom’s and slippery logic? Are you really suggesting that we should just go “Scum wouldn’t do that…or would they? Better not vote, just in case”
Assuming he’s Town, he made an assessment and posted it. That is very pro-Town. Obviously he’s aware Scum are hiding among the people he calls “neutral” or “slight town” and is using his list just as a starting point. It is pro-Town to share feelings, even when you don’t have complete grasp of the game.
Is it Scummy not to declare strong Scum pinging from other players? If so, suspect me, since I only have one strong Scum candidate right now.
Hirka’s post struck me as Townish but pinged you as Scummy. Your reaction seemed wrong to me, hence a “smudge.” Apologies if instead it seems I was smudging you. :smack:
My post was too terse to capture my meaning, but you’re reading words into it that aren’t there.
I do think there are probably clues in yesterDay’s vote record. I’ve gone over and over it, thinking of possibilities, confused myself, and ended up with … nothing. I am hoping others will analyze the vote, and post their conclusions for our study. This is what I was implying in the first line of that post.
It would be possible – indeed I did this on paper – to make an elaborate analysis of the vote, breaking it down into cases by possible alignment. Doing this honestly as a Townie, I ended up just confusing myself and now hope someone with better skill will try. The comment you’re questioning was where I pointed out that if I were Scum I wouldn’t have confused myself: I’d have been driven to post such an analysis, thereby looking helpful and perhaps implicating Townies as Scum.
I did not mean to discourage others from posting an analysis, and will look at any such posts with an open mind. The voting record is a key source of information; we’ve finally identified a Scum and should see what legitimate inferences can be made from the votes.
Busy at work.
There is a difference. I was also susepcting you that same Night before Astral died. And I was questiioning you earlier also. As far as I recall (and I may be wrong) Hirka was mum about you until that point.
I’m not saying it means anything, but it is a significant difference.
Hmm fair enough. I had actually read it as a deliberate smudge given that I had made a long post stating special ed was a suspect of mine due to the voting record (in #1007) but perhaps I overreacted.
In any case I’d be interested in hearing your thoughts on the voting patterns. Even if you do feel they don’t make a coherent case, that’s fine, it’s still interesting to see peoples impressions.
Like you, I suspect there’s at least one Scum among the Gnarly voters, but don’t get strong pings from any of them (fubbleskag seems the obvious choice but is playing almost too scummily not to be Town. :smack: ). I’m very curious whether Mahaloth is Scum and, if not, what the Scum motive was for bussing Gnarly.
Meanwhile I place my vote on the one player pinging me most strongly as Scum.
It’s true, I don’t think you made an easy case against me. As I recalled it though, you cited Astral’s intentions much more explicitly when you were casting your vote than **Hirka **did, so I was wondering if **Scathach **might be mixing the two of you up, since in the post she made she was also talking about you. Perhaps my recollection is screwed up though. For the record, I was not trying to smudge you or really add to a case against you, and I find you considerably less scummy now than I have in the past.