Just catching up from today, I had to skim at work, and I even had to say I “went to the bathroom” more often then normal just so I could take a few minutes to read and post. Though, if I just ignored everything, it still would have gone down the same… Oh well, advantage of hindsight. Way to go town! One more dead scummy scum scum!
I do have a few comments to make while I was reviewing though,
The big question I have is who did Silver Jan block last night? It is totally possible that she blocked the SK, not you. However, I was thinking of that as I read through the thread, and what did I remember seeing? But this:
Is it possible that Silver Jan blocked Fubbles, and that he is the real SK? He wouldn’t have known who blocked him, only that he was blocked. And I would think if he knew he was blocked, he would try to find an excuse on why there was no kill that night. Also, his claim, could be a good cover claim for a SK. It would explain why he was never killed overnight.
However, I guess we’ll find out either way tonight, after all:
If he doesn’t show up, and PCM is killed, we’ll find out if he is the SK or not.. If not, I think the day tomorrow will be between Fubbles and Scathach.
Oh, and Choie, this comment
While you need to claim early enough for people to see, like septimus did [yes, I believe his claim 100% now]), when someone is claiming the same role you have, and you know she’s lying, best for you to wait till they post their PM first. Otherwise, the scum could use your PM to help fake their own… Though, can’t wait forever… As you saw, I didn’t believe her when she didn’t post a PM… However once she posted one, I gave her the benefit of the doubt since who wants to lynch a town role without having time to think it through. But, since you posted your PM after hers, as soon as I saw it, I re voted, partly because yours looked more like the others, and also because I suspected Silver Jan more then you in the first place.
One more thing, I see your breadcrumbs now… never looked at them before, but if you died and were exposed as a power role, I think they would have been very useful! One day, I hope to see you as a town detective, I think you’ll do a better job bread crumbing then I could ever do… However, I hope to Og I’m on town at the time!
Oh crud, you’re right. I barely even caught that she was still a roleblocker, just for the opposite side. (I was so thrilled to see that red font I just blipped over the role!)
So maybe my block of Scathach had nothing to do with the SK after all. Super. Way to harsh my buzz, Hirka!
Speaking of Scathach, I’m not sure I agree with her that it’s a bad idea to at least throw some ideas around about whom I should block, or whether septimus should protect me so I can be of use for at least one more Night. I would imagine it’s a definite that he and I will be targets tonight, and one of us is gonna die unless:
septimus protects me while I successfully block the person who’s trying to kill septimus , or
septimus self-protects while I successfully block the person who’s trying to kill me.
There’s luck and then there are miracles, and I think we’re in short supply of both these days.
Anyway we can discuss this stuff when it’s not Christmas/Christmas Eve and more people are around. (Me, I’m Jewish, so tonight’s just the night for eating the traditional Chinese food feast while watching It’s a Wonderful Life.)
I’d say nothing’s beyond fubbles, he’s slippery as an eel. He does seem incredibly certain PCM is the SK, beyond the normal accusatory posturing most of us do during the game. But then there’s the sheer baiting he’s been doing, it’s almost as if he’s been daring us to lynch him. Is that the act of a serial killer? (Actually…I guess that’s what precisely what the real-life Zodiac killer did…) Something’s up with this guy and I just don’t know what it is.
And Mahaloth, while we’re at it. The guy’s been dogging me for Days with no real reason, and didn’t move his vote from me even after I claimed. I think everyone who went with me over Silver Jan should be scrutinized. And Scathach’s decision to create a tie, then quickly retreat once called on it, was highly suspicious. Also, she never did defend herself against my accusations, which seems a little odd. Wouldn’t a vanilla townie or even vanilla scum at least say “there was nothing to block, so you’re barking up the wrong tree”?
Heck I think anyone around who didn’t place a vote on either Jan or me seems fishy. Fubbles kept his hand firmly on Mahaloth’s tiller (hmmm, sounds like a double entendre there…) refusing to make a decision either way. Trying to avoid scrutiny post-voting? I suppose that’s a Catch-22 issue, though.
Okay, yep, that makes sense. I really didn’t want to show my claim at all, but considering the timing I knew there was nothing else to do.
One other thing we learned: it doesn’t appear that Trepa came up with fake claims for people. The last line of Silver Jan’s claim–the only one she really had to invent (other than changing her alignment)–didn’t sound like Trepa’s writing style, much more like Jan’s.
Wow, thank you! I was pretty aware I had put myself in a tenuous situation, so I wanted to pepper some references around my posts just to make sure Town had a way to either semi-verify my idenity before I was lynched, or to indicate whom I’d tried to block after I was lynched.
Also, let’s face it–I had to be telling the truth. As much as I know scum can have masterstrokes of genius, what scum roleblocker would admit to doing something so incredibly embarrassing, harmful and flat-out stupid as to neglect blocking anyone on N1? I don’t think adding a detail that was so potentially damning and moronic would’ve even entered their heads!
Two more things after rereading the thrilling events as yesterDay wound down…
First, I was wrong about Scathach not responding to my accusations; she did claim to be vanilla Town. Sorry 'bout that.
Second–and I’m surprised I didn’t think of this before.
At the time Silver Jan broke silence and posted her false claim, she was lynch leader and fubbles was second. I was third, but not in any real danger at the time.
So why didn’t she accuse fubbles instead of me? I suppose a solid argument could be made that such an accusation would’ve been too pat (falling on the guy most likely to be lynched rather than her) and thus harder to believe. Also, I’d made myself vulnerable due to my questioning septimus earlier in the day. Also also, she presumably didn’t know that I would be able to convincingly refute her allegations. (Unless the scum team have an investigator who could’ve identified me as a roleblocker. Is this likely?)
Hmm, looks like I’m answering my own questions. I guess there are good reasons why she didn’t turn on fubbleskag rather than me. I was about to go all "J’accuse! on fubbles, but I guess I’ve talked myself out of it in the space of a single post, heh.
I could erase all this and not post the message, but I guess just in case someone else had the same idea, I figured I’d put it out there. Or better yet, maybe someone can counter my arguments and thereby prove fubbles guilty, or at least highly suspect. (I just find it hard to believe he’s who he says he is. He should’ve been trying to garner Night Kill attempts, not lynchings!)
What struck me yesterday and again today is that while you were in lead for the lynch at some point, there was never a real bandwagon or a lot of people claiming that you were scummy somehow. I thought you and others were banging on about the role PMs and septimus’s claim far too much when in fact the evidence you were going on was meager and there were lots of good explanations. Still, that did not make it scummy per se, and I don’t think it made you in particular vulnerable; others voted for **Septimus **(**FluidDruid **and Hirka), you did not. So it’s not like you stood out in that way and got a lot of flak for it, I don’t think that describes yesterDay at all. When Silver Jan voted for you, you had two votes, Mahaloth’s and Septimus’s. Without saying they’re scum, both players have not been very active and have not explained their votes very well. Septimus voted for you in post #1010 for the following reason:
That’s pretty weak. It’s been four days since Septimus last posted in the thread; chances are that if he’d been back for any of the EoD spectacle, he’d have changed his vote.
In the case of Mahaloth, frankly, we don’t have a fucking clue why he voted for you. He’s been back a few times to complain about the computer network he has at work, but has offered no substantial reply to demands to explain his vote.
It appears to me that the reason for you still having 2 votes at EoD is probably early votes that were left in place, either out of scum convenience or out of town laziness - but it incorrectly creates the impression that a number of people were out to get you for some reason.
Anyway, I *do *suspect that the reason Silver Jan targeted you and not **Fubbleskag ** is because Fubbleskag is scum; I intend to look at his posts for EoD4 quite attentively.
Happy holidays, everyone! Hope your days were joyous and peaceful.
Now let’s get back to work killing people.
I can’t tell if you’re refuting me or not… all I was describing was the whole septimus brouhaha on Friday (or was it Thursday?) morning, when several people were taking me to task for harping on septimus’s early claim. It may not have seemed like “a lot of flak” to you, but it sure felt like that way here on the front line!
I think I’d made myself vulnerable (by doubting septimus) to Silver Jan’s campaign against me. If I hadn’t been up that morning/night when she posted her claim, and therefore was able to counterclaim her, I think the ballgame might’ve gone very differently, with people quite possibly switching from her to me (along with any undecideds).
Not if I hadn’t been around to counterclaim, which considering the time between Silver Jan’s claim (which was, what, 2:30AM my time?) and EOD (12PM my time) could’ve caused some issues for me if I weren’t such a night owl.
Very true. He hasn’t once explained fully his anti-me stance. The part of me that’s petty wants not only an explanation but also an apology, but that’s stupid and not how the game works. I just have to get more callused and accept negative votes are all part of the process.
Yeah, considering he was basically Door #2 against Silver Jan, he sure didn’t seem all that worried prior to Jan’s claim, or for that matter, after. It was like he just grabbed a bowl of popcorn and enjoyed the show, rather than make any arguments.
Anyway, this is all old news. We have a day and a half left until Dawn and I still want to hear some strategy talk. I would be very curious to hear what people think is going to happen toNight, and what moves you’d advocate for me and septimus. (I won’t necessarily say what I’ll do, lest we give too much away, but I don’t see the harm in hearing your opinions. Indeed I think people’s opinions could be useful once Night’s over and the reckoning time arrives.)
I’ll make one last plea for protection from our doctor, though. I think I can be more useful in an investigatory/info-gathering position than he can. All he can do is protect, which tells us nothing informationally. Of course if he’s already sent in his action protecting himself, and the scum team / SK have submitted their moves, I may already be dead as we speak. (Some kind of slow-acting poison, I guess; I feel fine now! :D)
Yeah so I’m saying that it did not look like a lot of flak to me, that you did not look vulnerable because of it. Exhibit A: no one voted against you for that reason, other than Silver Jan, who was scum. Exhibit B: others went much further into distrusting Septimus, and voted for him; you did not. If you had not been around, no one would have been able to confidently vote against you on the basis of your comments on Septimus.
I am saying that it’s likely Septimus might have changed his vote if he had been around - but he was not around and he did not change is vote. Whether you claimed or not is completely immaterial here.
Okiedoke, guess I just disagree here. I don’t think septimus would’ve changed his vote at all, and God knows Mahaloth would have only been too happy to buy Jan’s accusations. Assuming he’s not scum, which is a big assumption I suppose.
At any rate it doesn’t matter. What are your thoughts on what the bad guys will be doing toNight, and have you any suggestions for me, albeit with the understanding that I’ll just be taking any suggestions under advisement rather than acknowledging what I’m going to do? I could use a little help here.
Fine, so maybe they would have kept their votes in place in any scenario, the fact remains that they did not vote for you because of you harping on Septimus; both voted for you early in D4 before the entire role PM thing was really an issue, and neither of their cases were strong, so you were not as vulnerable as you might think. But yeah, it’s not really an issue.
As for night action, I don’t really know since this is my first game and I’ve never really dealt with this situation. I also have not given it a great deal of thought so far and I won’t right now since I’m about to tuck in (I’ve claimed that before though in this thread so don’t be surprised if you see an extensive multicolored graph in my posts an hour from now :smack:). One thing I do know is that secrecy is off the essence; neither you nor Septimus (if either of your claims are legit) should share even the most minor hint of what you are doing, and for that paranoid reason I am even a bit reluctant to give clear advice - if it helps you it might also help scum, which would nullify anything I might do. I would not fret about it too much, it’s pretty clear who are scum candidates right now and who are not; of course, I would imagine that a scum night kill is in one individual player’s name on behalf of the scum team, so even if you identified a scum player and blocked them, scum might choose the least suspicious one amongst them, and have them carry out the kill. Does that sound like a reasonable scenario? I don’t know how these things go. Anyway, here too, exchanging lists of who is most likely scum is also telling scum who amongst them has stayed under the radar.
Yeah, okay, so that’s no help. But I know you mean well.
It would be helpful if everyone gave a bit of a rundown on each remaining player – there ain’t that many of us left. We have (likely) two scums left and one SK (or if you’re the type who believes in fairies, a Vig).
Remaining living:
choie - Town (hopefully confirmed but I’m sure someone will disagree)
fluiddruid - leaning scum on her, primarily due to her inactivity (not voting 2 out of 4 Days?) She’s been nearly a non-entity in the game. She could be hiding something, or she could just be super-busy.
fubbleskag - oh who the hell knows. His moves have been staggeringly anti-Town, not helpful in any way at all IMHO, and I dislike his hypocritical decision not to vote for either of the top two votegetters on D3 after spending time bitching at Mahaloth for doing the same thing (only when he was one of top 2). And actually, looking back, he did the same thing in the Inner Stickler v. Scathach battle royale; instead of picking between the top votegetters, he went for… septimus (worse – he voted, then unvoted, then revoted septimus). It’s like he wants to be lynched. Strong lean scum (or quite amazingly suicidal Townie).
Hirka T’Bawa - Straight down the middle. Either is a scum with s a case of PIS or is a very good townie, as his vote record – except for the first day when he didn’t vote – is mighty good. (D2 he voted for Scathach, D3 for gnarlycharlie, and D4 for Silver Jan.)
Mahaloth - Well, this is a hard one for me, since he’s been so wrong on me for two Days now. Also, his votes were never well explained, he’s been missing in the discussion (perhaps due to tech issues, to be fair), and then there was his strange catfight with fubbleskag and near flouncing out in a huff… It’s hard to believe that a scum would be this obvious. Or is it?
Mental Guy - Aside from his first Day vote for fisha, I can’t disagree with his voting record. I appreciated his last-minute vote for me, but that could’ve been a decision to bus Silver Jan considering her claim was very thin and mine was solid with a side order of breadcrumbs. Many have accused him of being wishy-washy, but as I’ve said, that’s his style; he likes to hedge his bets a bit. So do I, so I can hardly denigrate a man for playing the same way I do. Slight lean town.
Precambrianmollusc - well, we just don’t know. I had been leaning scum on him (figuring that he might’ve been active in the scum board) but he hasn’t even been on the SDMB since Dec 12. Hopefully he’s okay. I will say one thing for fubbles, though; he does make a decent case for PCM being the serial killer, considering his lack of activity dates before N3, which I shall yclept as the Night of the Lone Death. That’d really cause problems, since unless he’s mod-killed we won’t know if he’s the SK or not. ARGH. Still… assuming nothing awful’s happened to him, it seems weird that someone with this type of role wouldn’t be active in the game.
Scathach - Well. As you know, until Silver Jan flipped as a scum roleblocker I was dead certain Scathach was the SK, since I’d blocked her and there was no second night kill. Now there are two other explanation for the lack of night kill: Silver Jan blocked the SK’s kill, or PCM is the SK after all. So I need to take the SK role out of the equation. How’s her voting been? She didn’t vote D1, was the first to vote Inner on D2, was again the first to vote gnarly on D3, then bounced from special ed to me in order to create a tie, and then quickly backed off when called on this scumminess to unvote me without re-voting anyone else. All in all not a record that fills me with confidence. Plus she was one of the Inner Stickler Four. (See more below under Svejk.) Leaning scum overall. But I can’t help but admit that I’ve so long considered her the SK that this could be a residual suspicion.
septimus - The doctor presumptive. Hasn’t done anything hugely Townie IMHO, and he hasn’t been killed yet, which could prove him right (he’s protecting himself) or simply that he’s scum who naturally is not getting attacked at Night at all. His voting record’s not bad, except for the vote on me. But if he’s Town and thought I was targeting him out of scumminess, that vote makes sense, especially as he wasn’t around at EOD to see the spectacle. Also, no one else has any suspicions on the guy but me, so I’ll have to go with the majority: Town. I suppose. (But don’t blame me if he flips Scum!)
special ed - voting record: D1 - me, D2 - fubbleskag, D3 - gnarly and D4 - fubbleskag. All in all a pretty good record, since fubbles is a perfectly legitimate lynching target the way he’s been playing. I ignore the D1 vote on me because what the hell, it’s D1. People are harping on his different play style, but I don’t really notice much difference between this and De’endeespecial ed. He wasn’t around at EOD yesterDay so I don’t know how he’d’ve chosen, if he’d have switched at all. All in all, leaning Town.
Svejk - Well. All along I’ve been looking at the infamous D2 vote on Inner. There were four of us who voted for him. Two of us (Guiri and I) are known Town. I just find it hard to believe that no scum voted for him. So that leaves Scathach or Svejk. To me, the options are:
… which leads me exactly nowhere. At least one of these two is scum. Which is it? Svejk plays very townie, extremely confident for a newbie (which automatically rankles, I hate to say it… that’s my own neuroses talking though). Anyway, his votes have been D1 - special ed, D2 - Inner Stickler, D3 - special ed, D4 - Silver Jan. Why the hate-on for special ed? Since special ed leans town to me, and I’m already predisposed to thinking either he or Scathach is Scum, I’m gonna have to say leaning Scum.
… Whew. So yeah, so that leaves me with like five scum and six Town, which is ridiculous. This means we’d’ve had a game with six scum, one SK, and about 13/14 Town? Not likely. Clearly my instincts are off on several of the above, for which I apologize.
Anyway does anyone else have something to say? Hopefully?
[li]I think it’d more productive to look for scum in the gnarlycharlie voters than the Inner voters (and bonus! that means you can still be suspcious of me either way;)) Voting for town isn’t really a scum tell, it can just as well mean people are wrong. Scum will more than likely try to bus one of their own once they know they can’t be saved.[/li][li]Giving people “townie cred” for voting me is a little on the nose until you’ve actually seen which way I flip (re your Hirka paragraph)[/li][/ol]
I don’t think voting for Inner is a scum tell (obviously, since half of us are confirmed Town), but I simply don’t buy that it was an all-Townie lynch mob. The fact that you were first on board both the Inner and Gnarly trains is what pings me so greatly, not to mention the strange behavior at EOD yesterDay.
But other than that, what you say is fair enough. Other than general self-defense, though, have you anything else to say about the rest?
Given that the Inner lynch sprung up while I was lynch leader, I’d say that it’s unlikely there’s many scum on it. Why lynch one town to save another (assuming I’m town obviously, which I have the luxury of but you don’t)
You’ve said several times now that I’m being defensive. Nothing in my previous post was defending myself! I said I was more suspicious of people voting gnarlycharlie - (I’ve already given my reasoning for that yesterDay) and I disagreed with giving Hirka a town lean. That was all.
Agreed. I’m willing to consider you confirmed town.
Her late vote for gnarlycharlie after it was certain he’d be lynched is the most suspicious thing about her for me. Lean scum
Lean town/3rd party. Surely as scum he’d try to lay a bit lower. Honestly I don’t know though.
Slight scum lean, as I’ve said before, due to the gnarlycharlie vote and attributing reasoning for his votes to Astral.
Neutral tbh. I agree I’d like to hear a bit more from him.
Townish to me so far.
Slight town, since vanilla townies are the most likely to get bored and wander off. Irrelevant though, since Trepa has said he’ll be modkilled if he doesn’t come back soon.
I keep flip flopping on septimus. Claimed doc with no counterclaim. But the role pm(town) business does seem slightly odd. And I could totally see how he would have assumed mafia meant alignment and changed it for a role claim. Really, I don’t know.
Slight lean scum - he was voted in a one off by gnarlycharlie, and then voted gnarlycharlie himself a Day later.
Lean town. I’ve explained my reasoning on that enough times now that I’m not going to bother recapping.
I’m posting from my phone so this will be brief. I want to correct choie. I was the first to vote Silver Jan, before any claims were made; it was not a late vote.
FFS I pointed this out to you two times now - stop making yourself into some type of Septimus martyr, you’re not. Two people (TWO) voted against him yesterday; you are not one of them. I don’t know of anyone who’s come right out to say they believe his claim unequivocally, so this 'no one else has any suspicions on the guy but me is just right bollocks. Why do you keep repeating this?
Couple of things:
I think you are very selective in your description of me. Remember how I contributed to getting SilverJan lynched yesterday? Clearly you don’t, but I think it deserves mentioning. After your IMHO poorly explained and easy vote against me on D3 this comes to me as just a very easy and unjustified suspicion. No one else shares it nor has anyone talked about during N3 and D4, which should be telling you something.
“At least one of these two is scum.” (about me and Scathach) Why on earth does that have to be the case? You say it with such absolute certainty, but I don’t think it is a useful assumption to make (note that I am in the same boat as you, since for me there’s you and Scathach that are unconfirmed). Remember that we are working in a low-information environment, except for those who are scum. That you are so sure seems suspicious to me.
It’s been widely agreed that the option in which both I am scum and Scathach is town makes no sense because it would not explain my switch. Why are you willing to accept this option as plausible, but not the town, town option?
I think that’s about the ratio I’ve hit too, and I’m fine with that - it’s far more useful to have a couple suspects too many, rather than too few. I actually agree with most of the cases you make. But you have to stop playing fast and loose with the facts. Also, while I agree it’s a useful shortcut to look at what people are doing, I think you are attaching too much value to voting records, and paying too little attention to posting behavior, justifications, etc. Note that your record is pretty weak too, with D1 and D2 votes for Stickler, a lone D3 vote for me, and a D4 vote for Silver Jan. That’s just 1 out of 4 votes right. What your method is doing for you is confirming your own biases.
