I do agree that the tidal wave seems to have blindsided fluiddruid. I was hoping for a little more discussion about the 3 unknown players. It seems that everyone has just piled onto my lynch target. However, I don’t know more then anyone else about those 3. While todays lynch should be one of them, I’m open onto which one. I’m not totally sold on fluiddruid, and I’m willing to be persuaded into voting for Svejk, or even special ed.
Oh, and as far as septimus, while Scathach made a good point about how I would expect scum to kill someone else besides you or septimus last night to avoid the whole WIFOM game, the nagging suspicion I have is why is septimus still alive? The scum had a role blocker, so I would have expected them to block septimus, and then kill him in one night. Why didn’t they? Who was Silver Jan blocking every night?
Okay, let’s think mathematically. There’s three known Townies (assuming we’re all on the level) and four potential Scum. For now I’m including Scathach as potential, because she could be the Godfather (er, Godmother?) and have thrown you off the track.
Since the game isn’t over, we can assume that there are either two or three baddies left. (Rather than four, in other words.)
Worst case scenario: we lynch the one last pure Townie among the four unknowns, leaving two scum and a serial killer for Night 5, and three power Townies.
I could definitely be mistaken but it seems to me there’s no way we could win with that combination. So aren’t we currently at Lynch or Lose? Unless PCM was the SK and there were only two scum left?
Holy crap. That is a good question. A *very very * good question. Maybe in Trepa’s setup, the roleblocker can’t block the doctor from protecting himself since it’s not an “active” move…? Either that or we have some seriously non-strategic scum here.
Well hold on. Maybe Silver Jan missed a Night or two during her absence? We didn’t have any other roles that could’ve been blocked after N1 except for septimus and you, and you say you weren’t blocked. I wasn’t either (though for all I know she tried to block me on N1 but since I was a total nimrod and didn’t realize I had to PM Trepa, there wouldn’t have been anything to block. Ha ha! </Nelson>)
See I don’t know how the order of actions goes. I guess every game is different, but I think that roleblocker trumps doctor trumps kill, at least that was on some wiki I read (I’ve totally lost track of what I’ve read and where). So let’s say everyone performed their actions: Silver Jan submitted her block of septimus, septimus protected himself, and separate Scum Member submitted his/her attack on septimus. So this means septimus’s protection would remain intact during the kill, but then Silver Jan blocked his protection… but there was nothing left to protect him from.
I have literally no idea if any of that makes sense.
Yes, he could be, but then so could Mahaloth. Though I still believe there are 2 scum left, so I really think we should lynch someone not investigated before we go into searching the investigated people.
Remember, the Mafia win condition was that “they can not loose even if they publicly reveal themselves” (or something like that). There are 8 players left, so, I figure with a SK, we have 6 town vs 2 scum vs 1 SK (Remember, SK is on their own party, they are against all of us). If we lynch town, they both kill town, we will be at 3 vs 2 vs 1. However, if the SK wants to win, they will be voting as if town at that point. They don’t want scum to win. They want scum to die (heck, they want EVERYONE to die). So, assume we lynch scum tomorrow, then the SK and scum kill a town, it will be 1 vs 1 vs 1… Scum still haven’t won the game… Though, unless the SK is lynched, he will win.
If PCM was the SK, and we only have 2 scum left, then it changes to 7 town vs 2 scum. If we lynch town, and they kill, we will be at 5 vs 2, we lynch town again, and they kill, 3 vs 2. So, without a SK, we have 2 nights till Lynch or Loose…
So… If there isn’t a SK (or it was PCM), we have 2 mislynchs left. If there is still a SK, we have one.
I will mention, while my investigations might have a godfather in them, at least we know we don’t have a SK on either one, and while it is possible septimus is faking his claim, if he is, he’s most likely scum, not a SK. So… That leaves 3 people investigated, so if there is a SK, we’ll probably be able to lynch him before he wins.
Either way, we aren’t at Lynch or Loose yet.
I don’t know the order of operations in this game, however, in a previous game I saw scum role block the doctor, and kill the claimed cop. So, I would think that roleblocking the doctor, and then trying to kill him, would still work out.
:mad:
But I’ve changed my mind about you, choie, and am more than 99% certain you’re Town. (Hirka’s claim also seems extremely likely; otherwise he’d be taking a huge gamble. If he is lying, Mahaloth or Scathach is probably his Scum buddy, and the other an unknown that Hirka had to gamble would be Vanilla.)
Anyway, I can appreciate that of our three Town Powers, my claim may be most suspicious, so please Lynch me first once all other scum candidates are down.
Although one of Mahaloth or Scathach is likely to be Scum Godfather, I agree that we should first Lynch one of the three Unknowns. I voted for fluiddruid for other strong scum-tells, but it would be beneficial to examine cases against special ed and Svejk as well, and I’ll be open-minded about moving my vote.
On the question of Night-power precedence:
I think that normally Roleblocking takes effect first, even if Roleblocker is going to Die, then other powers, kills, and finally the actual deaths. Trepa promised a “user-friendly” game, so I assume he follows that normal rule. Thus, my Protection will work even if I’m targeted for a Kill, but not if I’m targeted for a Block. It seems quite likely that Silver Jan, Scum Roleblocker, was blocking me while Scum was killing someone else. Thus I probably couldn’t have saved guiri even if I Protected him.
Even if there are three bad guys left, we may not yet be at Lynch-or-Lose. We may soon need to guess whether Mahaloth or Scathach is the Godfather, but the first step is to reduce the set of three “unknowns” Hirka has identified. There’s a good chance that Scum will have to reveal themselves during the Vote toMorrow.
I don’t recall which Nights had lower kill numbers. Is it possible that choir blocked the SK or the Scum killer?
The points about septimus not being blocked and killed is interesting. Though they could have blocked him and just killed or assumed he was self protecting and used their powers elsewhere as he was self-contained and under some suspicion anyway.
The claim by Hirka isn’t out of the question if he were Scum. He could be trying to get a couple of mislynches in. Assuming we’d go for his uni estivated first and assuming he’d get septimus’ protection for a Night. Of course the claim is well timed for a Town Hirka too. Though I probably would have claimed late during the Night.
Hirka, why is it more likely that a lying septimus would be Scum and not SK?
I think you should be grouped in as a potential scum candidate, septimus. I’m still not convinced by your claim and I’m afraid you’re not being entirely truthful here.
Your sole description for my vote is: “ToDay’s vote looks easy, since fluiddruid had become one of my prime suspects for several reasons. (And her posted PM looks suspicious to me: I’d assumed that the “(pure young maiden/handsome young fellow)” would be customized for female/male. Perhaps one of the true Vanillas can confirm whether the PM is proper or not.)”
So you have “strong scum-tells” and “several reasons”… but the only thing you don’t buy is that you don’t think my PM is proper. This is something easily verified, you chose not to do this, and keep alluding and handwaving to reasons that have never materialized.
I don’t really take issue with people picking me out as a ‘best case’ unknown – certainly, that’s nothing new. I basically had to take the same case against Sjevk as I’m unwilling to vote for myself, natch, and neither ed based on the evidence at hand – thus it’s a case of exclusion, not inclusion. You don’t make such a case or defend your vote this way. In short, I take huge issue with jumping on the bandwagon against me and repeating a non-case against me in order to fade in with the background.
In short, bullpuppy – you have no “strong scum-tells” against me that you’ve enumerated. You’re just hoping to fade in or to answer when questioned because I’m a convenient vote candidate.
You consistently post accusing people or steering people towards either/or choices with one person or another that you prefer, without evidence and without even a rationale. Your role has (or rather, should have) no special knowledge; you have no justification for posting ‘hints’ like this.
Hi, and welcome! You are a (pure young maiden/handsome young fellow), looking for an (everlasting soulmate/dearly beloved wife) in among the crowd of (jerks/skanks). Along the way, you’ll have to deal with (intrigue/betrayal/fright) and bask in the beauty of (perfectly sculpted muscles/bright blue eyes/lovely flowing hair/exquisite dresses). Really, though, what you’re afraid of is those people out there who hang out in bars and will leave you in the lurch. You know, the scum of the dating pool.
Given by the lack of involvement to-Day other than a whirlwind vote for me, it seems very few people are interested in discussion at all (at least until that’s settled), so I’m going to bow out – I’m about to leave the office for the holiday weekend, and I feel like I’m wasting my time posting further to this thread. Good luck town.
Happy New Year, Town! and yeah, scum too I s’pose.
I just noticed this:
But wait, if I’m understanding your last couple of lines correctly, you’re saying that if someone blocked you, you wouldn’t have been able to protect someone. Doesn’t that include yourself? So if Silver Jan blocked you first, then the Scum-killer-du-jour tried to kill you, wouldn’t you be dead? Or do you mean that self-protecting trumps roleblocking and kill attempts?
Basically the implication is that the Team Scum were so disorganized that they didn’t coordinate their block/kill strategy? I guess it’s possible, especially if Team Scum are mostly newbies. Still, it seems like really bad planning on their part (or fabulously good luck on ours).
Anyway, I guess I have to vote now. Ugh. There’s almost no point since a whole batch of folks collapsed on top of fluiddruid and tied her to a stake, with their bags of fire ants at the ready. I understand that someone’s gotta be scum among the unclaimed. I’m just leery of fast bandwagons that are predicated on such an unusual role (Hirka’s), which I have the strangest feeling could be a masterstroke on the part of the baddies.
Mind you I still doubt Scathach as well but despite what I just said above, I’m tentatively believing Hirka’s read on her.
On the other hand, fluiddruid has been very absent and she’s reacted with what I think is undue irritation at a few people in the game, misunderstanding their posts’ intended meaning. And she ends up with a mini-flounce. Though I guess if I were being railroaded the way she is, I’d be flouncing too. However I’d also have mounted a much less angry defense while doing it. Her somewhat embittered tone has the strange quality of making me suspect her more, not less. Surely she must see that her lack of participation has affected the rest of the players’ impressions of her, right?
Sigh. Well, I think I’m going to go with my instincts even though they seem crazy and it’s not gonna do a damn bit of good not to vote for fluiddruid. The person whose game style I’ve noticed changing the most during the game is my current (and past) suspect.
vote Svejk
Mainly because he’s gone from super-invested in the game to suddenly and eeerily quiet. Also he seems to despise me for some reason and yet I’m such a likeable gal! But mostly because I think he’s clever enough to have pulled off such an awesome deception. For a newcomer he’s been incredible. So my hat’s off to you, whether Town or Scum.
Heh. choir. Anyway, the Nights wiht lower kill numbers were Nights 3 and 4 (the latter was technically a higher kill count, but that’s only because of the mod-killed PCM and fubbles’ forced death from hiding behind Mental Guy). Both of these were Nights I blocked Scathach. However, though that seems damning, there are enough extenuating circumstances and loopholes and alternate ways to account for the seeming lack of a SK attack (which is what I think happened) that I wouldn’t ascribe too much to my block.
Vote Count:
fluiddruid (4): Hirka T’Bawa, Scathach, Svejk, septimus
Svejk (1): choie
Special Ed (1): Mahaloth
septimus (1): fluiddruid
Hypothetically speaking, if the games ends with 1SK and 1Scum, or 1SK 1Scum 1Town, then the game ends in a tie. That’s happened before, believe it or not.
I’m having second (and third, and fourth) thoughts on my vote.
I just find it so hard to believe that the Scum team wouldn’t have tried, even once, to kill septimus, when they had a roleblocker who could’ve prevented septimus from protecting himself.
septimus says that he may have been blocked the Night that Guiri was killed, thus exculpating him for not having protected Guiri. This requires us to believe that on Night 3, Silver Jan blocked the self-revealed doctor and Team Scum went after Guiri rather than the doctor himself, which would have been the smarter thing to do considering this means they’d’ve had a free shot at Guiri (or any other Town person) the next Night and all the Nights thereafter.
That seems… really bad planning on the part of Team Scum.
Of course this theory predicates on whether the doctor can be blocked from protecting himself, and whether that block would then free the Scum killer to kill the doc. If the blocker can prevent the doc from self-protection, why waste time neutralizing the doctor via blocking when you could just as eassily block, then kill him?
So… while I have a very very bad history of not believing doctor claims (and was proven wrong for doubting in the end), I’m going to switch my vote. Even though it probably means voting with a potential scum fluiddruid.
unvote Svejk [color-blue]vote septimus[/color]
This is one vote I actually hope is wrong. I’d rather have a doctor in the game than not.
Final Vote Count:
fluiddruid (4): Hirka T’Bawa, Scathach, Svejk, septimus
Special Ed (1): Mahaloth
septimus (2): fluiddruid, choie
I’d apologize for ending the day late (I got sidetracked by a runaway game of Catan), but, er…no-one seems to have noticed. You all must be massively hungover.
Anyway:
fluiddruid (Vanilla Town) got crushed by a giant disco ball.
Well, that’s just great. That’s just really flippin’ great.
But I’m not surprised. There’s a big enough scum-to-Townie ration that makes it easy as pie to have manipulated the votes so that the fist of injustice came down to crush fluiddruid.
Let’s look at the whole roster:
Alive:
choie - claimed town roleblocker Hirka T’Bawa - claimed backup detective Mahaloth - don’t think he’s claimed anything Scathach - claimed vanilla Town septimus - claimed town doctor special ed - don’t think he’s claimed anything Svejk - don’t think he’s claimed anything
7 = still alive, including 3 claimed Town Power Roles, 1 claimed vanilla, 3 unclaimed unknowns
6 = confirmed vanilla Town
3 = confirmed Town Roles (bodyguard, cop and hider)
1 = confirmed vanilla Scum (goons are vanilla, right?)
1 = confirmed Scum Role (roleblocker)
1 = unclassified modkill
So assuming that out of the seven of us remaining, we have two scum, and perhaps one SK (though I think it’s quite possible PCM was it), that means we’re supposed to buy that the three out of the presumed four remaining Townies remaining are all power roles. Combined with the three already dead Town roles, that means Trepa created a game where fully (or nearly) half of the Town players had power roles. Seriously?
Okay, let’s be generous and say that PCM was either the SK or a Scum player, which means there are only two baddies left, two presumably vanilla Townies, and three power role Townies. That’s still six out of thirteen Townies, combined with only one confirmed scum role.
It doesn’t add up to me. I feel that **Trepa['b] would’ve created a setup that was more balanced. (Although OTOH, even if he did give Town all these power roles, apparently we’ve still managed to fuck things up this badly! Shoot, Trepa, maybe you should’ve made every Townie a power role. Then maybe our Keystone Kops-esque team could’ve had a fighting chance.)
Seriously, I don’t buy it. One of our power roles is probably scum, along with either Mahaloth, Scathach, special ed, or Svejk. A lot depends on whether the SK is still around or not.
Damn… Sorry Fluiddruid… I guess I led you to this by voting for you first. I am sorry. I do think the lynch was too easy, no one argued anything. All I knew was that you were uninvestigated, and everyone (including me I admit) voted for you. I’m really sorry…
Maybe I should have waited to claim, I don’t know… This is the first time I’ve had any sort of power role. I’ve been debating for days on when the proper time to claim was. Saw only 3 unclaimed or uninvestigated people left, and figured it was as good a time as ever… I see now that everyone took my lead, and voted you. Next time, I’ll make sure to claim right before end of night.
Again, Sorry Fluiddruid.
As for tonight, there are three claimed power roles left, me, choie, and septimus. I’m willing to bet that one of us will be dead in the AM, but it is all a WIFOM game with the doc.
So, I’m willing to bet that even the doc will win the WIFOM game, and there will be no kill, or we’ll have one of us dead, or one of my investigated townies. So, that still brings up the question… Who should I investigate? Who should Choie block?
While I believe it would be a dumb thing for us to announce our intentions, I do think it might be smart for the investigated vanilla’s and uninvestigated people to make suggestions.
Oh, and if we really do have a vig on our side. I would appreciate a claim even right before daybreak stating who was your target, or right after daybreak, stating your targets.
Just as a heads-up, I am still on the road and not on-line as often as I’d like to be. I hope to be contributing a little bit more toNight and toMorrow (provided I live to see another day).
