On MadTheSwine:
Well, I’m baffled. Saturday morning, I came to the expectation that MadTheSwine was either the secret role with some sort of death-wish or would turn out to be a non-believer. This was a plausible outcome to me, as I could see a non-believer who needed out of the game making his own dunk happen in the hopes of taking out the psychopath. An activated psychopath’s win condition is extremely difficult to obtain. I thought a non-believer MadTheSwine might have thought a daytime dunking was the best chance at a win should he be the psychopath. Oh well, obviously I was wrong.
But that leaves us with MadTheSwine’s flawed gambit. Basically Mad thinks there is a scum amongst Pleonast, Malacandra, Zeriel, Captain Klutz. No one else seems to have been able to follow Mad’s logic on suspecting those four. (Am I correct in stating so? Does MadTheSwine’s town status change anyones view of the Mad plan?) The way I see it, Mad’s set of four has the same chance of containing scum as any random set of four players.
On SnakesCatLady:
My guess is that scum thought SCL was a power role. SCL’s quiet play, could have been construed by scum as ‘power role playing quiet to keep from having to role claim.’ My theory is scum deliberately targeted a quiet zuma Night One to show the possible intent of scum killing quiet players and flush out quiet power roles. I don’t think we can glean much from SCL’s suspicions (ironically, she mainly suspected quiet players and non-voting players) because we won’t be able to distinguish whether SCL was killed because she was suspecting scum or to make us think she was suspecting scum – at least not until we have more information.
On ArizonaTeach:
I spent a few moments thinking about the game Saturday morning and my head settled on ArizonaTeach and the ‘meltdown.’ At the time many players noted that previous ‘meltdowns’ had been exclusively the reaction of frustrated townies, which makes sense because no one likes to be called a liar when they are telling the truth. But that leaves us with ArizonaTeach. ArizonaTeach was scum, yet being called scum made him flip out and quit the game. I really wanted a reason to explain ArizonaTeach’s behavior, since being called a liar shouldn’t have been that upsetting because he was, in fact, lying. ArizonaTeach Theory:
So what was it that set ArizonaTeach off? A townie calling ArizonaTeach a liar shouldn’t have been an overly frustrating experience, but what about scum calling ArizonaTeach a liar? Would a player in this game be more upset by his teammate brazenly taking him out on day one, before the game has really even begun and before they could talk at night?
**NAF **was first to Vote for ArizonaTeach (post 585) (The NAF/Zeriel discussion about lurkers has that already scummy in my mind). ArizonaTeach voted for **Autolycus **as the argument began (post 693), leading to Autolycus voting for ArizonaTeach (post 767). **Mtgman **(confirmed town) lays out the case against ArizonaTeach in post 808 where he also votes ArizonaTeach. ArizonaTeach attempts to defend himself in several posts, but ultimately quits the game in post 845. The last person to vote for ArizonaTeach is Kyrie Eleison, who does so after ArizonaTeach had quit (847).
So which is more plausible, quitting out of frustration because town found you out fair and square or quitting out of frustration because fellow scum are selling you out? Obviously, I’m leaning to the latter. At the time ArizonaTeach quit, his dunking was not even assured, why the frustration?
I think the scum probably construed this as the “Yo, Oracle, over here” post that Hal asked for at #301. On the bright side, at least they missed this time.
Oh well, if so, I guess we can call that “taking one for the team”. And, taken all in all, we’ve managed to get several Days in without anyone bar the Alchemist having to out him(her)self. Those losses are starting to look troublesome though.
RIP SnakesCatLady…we’ll make sure the psychic cats are fed.
Although it didn’t turn out the way he wanted it to, **Mad’s ** plan did make sense to me logically. He wanted to act so scummy that the town would bandwagon and the scum would see it as an easy lynch to stay out of. Yes it is flawed, but the idea was actually sane, as I noted in a post previous to the dunking. I’ve been suspicious of **Zeriel ** and **Pleonast ** for the whole game, and I’ll be fine voting for either one of them. Will hold off now for discussion.
Well, seeing how things turned out with Mad, maybe his plan did have some valid points. My whole judgement on the situation is not to be trusted I think. But it would be another check in the anti Zeriel box. He is still at the top of my suspicion list, head and shoulders above everyone else. I will hold off voting for a day of so and see what develops.
Looks like my critics are quick to jump on me today. I guess they’re willing to give up the “votes too quick” criticism.
Of course, I still have my favorite, Malacandra. NAF recapped Mal’s votes in 1995. Please review it, so you can see where I’m coming from.
My summary of Mal’s actions: little substance, a few glaringly obvious mistakes, and complaints of others spinning his statements. I could see Mal being either a Townie who’s made some silly statements, or a Cultist trying to be too clever and got caught. He certainly hasn’t contributed much to help the Town. I favor the second explanation and yet again, Vote Malacandra
((My company is suffering internet connectivity issues, so don’t expect responsiveness on my end. I’m not even sure if this made it through.))
I think I follow his logic. MadTheSwine’s gambit was based on the presumption that scum have an artificial bias toward diversity in voting actions – in other words, scum repel. He believed that if he could appear scummy enough, the large majority of townfolk would vote for him, while a smaller proportion of scum would do so, since they wouldn’t want to concentrate all of their votes on what they knew to be a townie. Thus the set of those not voting for him would have a greater “scum density” than a random set.
Mad’s town status does change my view of the plan a bit – I now believe wholeheartedly that he was sincere in it. I was not at all certain of that before.
I think his plan might have worked to some degree, if it were allowed to run its full course. In theory, scum and town cast votes for different reasons, and it ought to be possible to devise a plan that differentiates them based on that. However, I think Mad’s interpretation of the results is too black and white: Townies also have a natural tendency to diversify their votes, albeit for different reasons than scum. Even if the plan had some validity, and if, once all votes were cast there was a greater scum to town ratio in those not voting for Mad versus those voting for him, it doesn’t mean that, for example, the first two not to vote for him are scum.
I’m not sure I understand why he also thinks that those voted for by those not voting for him are also more likely to be scum. That would seem to imply a belief that scum are more likely to vote for scum than townies, which I think is questionable.
We’re down 8 to 1 the day after a run-away town-killing bandwagon from hell, and before SCL has finished twitching from her final throes there are two “vote now, explain later” votes for the same player.
OK. I went back and read all of SCL’s posts, and here are my conclusions:
As I stated in my last post, I’m pretty darn sure she was killed because the scum thought she was the Apprentice. Finding the Apprentice is almost certainly their first priority right now, and there are a couple of things in SCL’s first day posts that look like big flags. One of them is the “looks suspiciously at Hal” post that I’ve already mentioned, the other is the fact that she argues quite passionately that the Oracle and Apprentice ought to be left to their own devices, going so far as to say “Please, please stop it [talking about the Oracle and Apprentice” (post 571).
OK, if that’s a given, is there anything in her later posts that would seal the deal? If she fingered a Cult member, the bad guys would have even better reason to be suspicious of her. Unfortunately, SCL seems to do a LOT of suspecting (at various points, she expresses suspicion of Pasta, Malacandra, Pleonast, me, Kat, Hockey Monkey, MadtheSwine, Captain Klutz, fluiddruid, NAF, and everyone who didn’t vote on Day 4 [she names eight names, but the only two who did not cast a vote by the end of the Day are Nava and MHaye]).
The three names from this list that stand out to me are Captain Klutz (because SCL’s suspicions of him are repeated and vocal), Nava, and MHaye (because she said she was going to “investigate” the players who didn’t vote by the end of Day 4 – an unfortunate choice of words which probably also helped to seal her fate). I don’t have much of a read on any of these players right now, but I think there’s a good chance I’ll end up voting for one of them.
First of all, I see no problem in voting early. Votes can always be changed. Second, I’ve already explained my reasons for voting for Pleonast (and so has Idle, for that matter). So it’s actually, “vote now for reasons previously given.” I even said yesterDay that I’d be voting for Pleonast toDay. If you’re going to FOS me for something I did, at least do it for something I actually did.
Well I am leaning towards continuing down the path that Hal Briston may have lead us. He should have had 2 nights worth of investigations, so maybe Mad wasn’t one. That doesn’t necessarily mean he didn’t breadcrumb his investigations. From what I recall (haven’t had time to re-read) the other breadcrumbs were Malacandra as scum, and sachertorte as believer. Therefore I:
You’ve been in the game and been reading since Day One, right? Have you not seen my constant explanations of why my suspicions have been building up against Pleonast for the last four Days? I certainly haven’t been making it a secret. He’s done a lot of scummy things. Sorry for being tired last night but wanting to put my vote out there early since, by now, I’m no less of a speeding freight train in thinking he’s the most shady looking of everyone. But if you really want to be satisfied, I can requote or link to all of the reasons I give in the past, including why I voted for him just yesterDay not long before Day ended. It’s all there, so your “vote now, explain later” seems off, since it’s been explained, on my part, all through the entire game.
Idle and FlyingCow (and a few others) have been on my case for a while, so he’s right about it not exactly being a surprise to vote for me. And I have been trying to defend myself against them as well.
But maybe it is a good idea for them to explicitly rehash their complaints against me (so that I can refute ). And If Mal wants me to go over what I have agaisnt him, I’d be happy to. We have plenty of time, might as well go over it.
And others should not feel constrained by this spat. If you have something against another player that bugs you, air it out. Give us something to go on when if you don’t come back the next Day.
((Hardware fixed, so I have a steady connection again.))
Initially, I noticed **Pleonast **for trying to control the conversation between myself and sachertorte. He threatened to vote for us if we didn’t stop our discussion. That was in the area of post 410. Later on, there was a rapid pile-on of votes for Mtgman. **Pleonast **was one of them, and I felt that he was hiding in the swarm of votes. I think that by trying to stop me and **sachertorte **for discussing the Oracle/Apprentice he was setting himself up to say “look how pro-town I am.” Then, when we discovered that Kat(AZTeach) was a Cultist, I remembered that Day one’s voting was tied between Kat(AZTeach) and Mtgman, until **Zeriel **and **Pleonast **voted for Mtgman. Were their votes intended to save Kat(AZTeach) from being lynched? I obviously don’t know, but it strengthened my suspicions of Pleonast, and made me a little suspicious of Zeriel. At that point in the game, the scum had not had a chance to discuss anything, so I could easily see two of them voting to save another. I’m also curious why the late Captain Pig suspected Pleonast, Zeriel, **Malacandra **and Capt. Klutz. I’ve been a little suspicious of Mal and Zeriel, so it’s interesting to me that Captain Pig’s list almost matches my own…
Yes I’ve been following the thread, but I seriously doubt I’m the only player who is unable regurgitate the essence of Idle and FlyingCow’s argument(s) for dunking Pleonast by memory. If you’re trying to convince people to potentially agree enough to vote similarly, at least link to the analysis you made in earlier posts.
Upon review, I should be on my own FOS list. I’m guilty of doing the same thing when voting yesterDay. I had intended to link my prior analysis post to my vote for Hockey, and was convinced that I’d actually done so until checking up on myself a few moments ago.
The first post I quoted makes me think that you knew Idle and I had previously stated reasons for voting for Pleonast, but that you couldn’t remember what the reasons were. If this is true, why did you intentionally mislead people by saying we had cast “vote not, explain later” votes? You’ve contradicted yourself, and that contradiction makes me suspicious. This is not an OMGUS FOS: FOS Cookies.
FCOD makes a good point Cookies. I tend to ignore you in these games because you always read as scum to me but this one is really making me go :dubious:.
). And If Mal wants me to go over what I have agaisnt him, I’d be happy to. We have plenty of time, might as well go over it.