MHaye, the strongest reason I have for suspecting DiggitCamara[SUB]2[/SUB] is that he completely misstated what I said–he decided, somehow, that “I want to see a tie to get more time to evaluate the roleclaim fully” was equivalent to “I want to see HockeyMonkey dunked even though she roleclaimed as a neutral claiming to help the town.”
I note our haste there did, in fact, result in the death of a townie.
Ok, when I unvote you as you are about to get dunked re raise that suspicion. But my vote is with you for the rest of the day.
On preview it seems I neglected to actually vote for you. That was going to come at the end of my long analysis. More dramatic that way. (I was a theater major, sue me 
)
vote zeriel
I’ve posted this before, but the pertinent parts bear repeating. I just took out some of the links below from the full workup, and bolded the parts of my previous analysis that I thought were important.
Starting right about here, Zeriel starts suspecting NAF.
post 522 Response to NAF about NAF’s listing him as a lurker, and FOS NAF.
post 549 NAF’s anti-lurker post scummy, Hal Briston’s post (about the Apprentice getting the Oracle’s attention) looks scummier every time it’s quoted, Kyrie Eleison nudging the radar but not as much as Clockwork Jackal did, Captain Klutz’s explanation of a good reason to lurk is scummy. Votes for NAF (in the wrong color).
post 564 Response to Captain Klutz: “Who benefits if we have people thinking it’s alright to post once per GameDay, with a vote and justification? That doesn’t give the townies much to go on, therefore it’s …essentially, not even worth an “official” FOS, just a mental note that it might be scummy.”
post 565 Lists people with post counts similar to the one’s on NAF’s list that NAF failed to mention as lurkers. (I’m on that list. 
) Says that if NAF is scum, these folks are suspect.
post 578 Response to NAF…again hard to sum up, please click link.
post 584 Response to NAF. Shining light on those not mentioned. Says Pleonast, Mad, and Mtgman are all starting to look scummy. (But doesn’t give any further explaination)
post 716 Storyteller was right about if the apprentice is revealed that he should be protected from conversion. sachertorte has a good point, but still think Queuing is right. Doesn’t know why so many votes for sachertorte other than the harping on the plan. Mtgman’s plan was more detrimental, but he backed off sooner. Considering backing off NAF vote.
post 717 Clarifies his defense of sachertorte and mtgman. Says it’s suspicious that Kyrie jumps to kill the apprentice rather than protect him. ** Unvotes NAF, votes Kyrie.**
post 870 Mtgman jumps to the top of his list and Kyrie Eleison is looking less scummy. Unvotes Kyrie and Votes Mtgman.
post 1047 Explains his vote for Mtgman, says he doesn’t disapprove of bandwagon voting when there are a lot of frontrunners
post 1123 Chastises Mal for his condescension and FOS’s him
post 1200 votes for Fluiddruid for immediately jumping on Malacandra with “precious little reason”, and to poke her. I don’t recall him being suspicious of Fluiddruid before this vote, so this one pings me a little
post 1223 For the Record FOS’s: Malacandra, Kyrie, Autolycus, SCL, and NAF. Notes that SCL and Auto have been very quiet and that’s why he voted for Fluiddruid. I thought her being quiet was a secondary reason per post 1200.
post 1249 A reply to SCL, and puts Mhaye on his FOS list
post 1369 “Observation one: If I understand the rules/roles correctly, either the secret role can kill or we know the psychopath is activated.” I missed this before and don’t really understand why he thought this. Did he forget about the Crusader? Yep post 1370 says so. The rest of the post is some analysis and a vote for Hal Briston that I just don’t understand (the analysis or the vote). It’s all starting to look like random words on a screen right now 
.
post 1381 Replys to NAF on why he voted for Hal Briston.
post 1445 Reiteration of his FOS for NAF. Click the link and read the whole thing.
post 1449 Response to NAF’s vote for him. Notes that his vote is still on Hal. Makes a good point about NAF’s lurker list.
post 1453 Reads back and sees that zuma was on NAF’s list and is confirmed town so is not voting for NAF today.
post 1462 Response to Kyrie Eleison re NAF
post 1463 Unvotes Hal Briston stating that it was a dumb decision he had made based on the votewar between Kat and Mal
post 1485 sums up his own posting record, and says that he may not remember why he posted some of the stuff
post 1486 Question for NAF re obsession vs suspicion
post 1491 A very nice summary of his suspicions
post 1517 “I gotta admit, I’ve got a lot of little suspicions but damn, I have no idea who I should be voting for here.”
Post 1519 – fluff (the first one other than night posts)
post 1541 Bouncing between the following people to bote for: NAF, Pleonast, Hockey Monkey. Just a little earlier he had all but cleared NAF from his suspicion list. States that Pleonast is fading into the background. And up till this point he had not mentioned me at all (other than in his rebuttal lurker list to NAF). I find it “convenient” that he does this now, calls my reasons for FOS ridiculous and poor and threatens a retaliatory vote. Did I push a button?
post 1551 In response to me, offers an alternate explanation for his vote for Mtgman, and says he will step back from the impulse to place a retaliatory vote.
post 1552 comments on my capstone vote for Mtgman
post 1555 On re-read says that he wants to suspect Hockey Monkey and NAF, but he can’t really at this time.
post 1562 Says that he will have to examine Scuba_Ben because of Queuing’s analysis, is again suspecting Hal Briston, and puts NAF and me back in the suspicion rotation. This one confuses me because I think little had changed between post 1555 and this one. Why am I back on your short list now?
post 1563 Makes a possibly scummy correction/explanation of a possibly scummy interpretaion of his above post.
Up until about post 1485 I was thinking that I may have been wrong to vote for Zeriel. When he said he might not remember some of the reasons he posted stuff, that pinged me a bit. ** Then the on again off again nature of his suspicions for both me and NAF don’t sit well. (I admittedly may be biased when it comes to me, but I think I would have picked up on this if it were concerning another player.) ** I also want to say that I am not defending NAF in any way, he’s just the other player concerned. Almost all day I was going to change my vote, but I think I will leave it be for now.
I always immediately investigate anyone who suspects me strongly or votes for me, especially if I think their reasoning is flimsy. In point of fact, I tend to treat shoddy or misleading reasoning as a scum tell.
I think that the word I am looking for is ironic?
Sorry I know DNFTS.
I like FlyingCowOfDoom’s approach to refuting my idea better. Calling me stupid is simply irritating.
Here’s my problem. I don’t understand why ArizonaTeach left the game. Obviously, the fun factor fell to zero for him, but I’d like to know why. How can we say it makes no sense that he left the game because a cultist voted for him, **and **say it makes no sense that he left because town voted for him. ArizonaTeach left for a reason. I would very much like to understand that reason. I came up with the best explanation I could. If someone can do better, please do.
On NAF:
I was planning to tie the ArizonaTeach theory to my suspicions of NAF, but in doing a quick re-read of Day One, NAF’s post keep looking pro-town except for two pieces which I outlined in post 1425. In 1425 I FOS NAF based on his ‘lurker/invisible’ list, ArizonaTeach being left off that list, and NAF stating that ArizonaTeach will somehow vindicate NAF’s list.
I’m at suspicious and am teetering on placing a vote, but the ArizonaTeach logic is troublesome to me. If someone can rationalize ArizonaTeach’s behavior, I’d love to hear it.
On Zeriel:
Suspicion of Zeriel hinges on accepting that ArizonaTeach did a jittery vote and unvote of Zeriel on day one all while knowing Zeriel was scum. The scum tell pointed out by NAF and Mtgman, which if I understand it implies Zeriel is town. If I’m mistaken, please someone address this and explain it to me. Those of you suspicious of Zeriel will have to explain how ArizonaTeach’s vote/unvote fits into a scummy Zeriel to get my vote.
AZ was left of the list because he was clearly visable at the time I made the list. He was involved in a conflict with MgtMan. (I think it was MgtMan, might have been MHaye.) I have explained this more than once.
I am not sure anyone can rationalize AZ’s behavior. I am sad that he decided to drop out though. He is fun to have in a game, and I hope he plays again in the future.
On Zeriel:
Suspicion of Zeriel hinges on accepting that ArizonaTeach did a jittery vote and unvote of Zeriel on day one all while knowing Zeriel was scum. The scum tell pointed out by NAF and Mtgman, which if I understand it implies Zeriel is town. If I’m mistaken, please someone address this and explain it to me. Those of you suspicious of Zeriel will have to explain how ArizonaTeach’s vote/unvote fits into a scummy Zeriel to get my vote.
[/QUOTE]
I don’t know that AZ voting for Zeriel does in fact clear Zeriel. The vote/unvote, upon reflection, does not neccesarily mean that Zeriel was town, it just means that AZ was voting. He seemed to be going for the “be so agressive no one will think you are scum” strategy. Maybe that was just him burning out. Maybe that is why AZ got so pissed. We accused him of voting/unvoting because he knew Zeriel was town. Maybe he got frustrated because he knew that we caught him, but for the wrong reasons. Idle did the same thing to me in M4 and I know it was very frustrating. Not drop out of the game frustrating, but frustrating.
My point is, there is too much other stuff going on with Zeriel to be able to clear him based on that single act.
Go back and look for yourself sach.
When you mentioned this the first time, I deliberately didn’t say anything because I was curious to see what you might come up with independently. On Day One, I went through the same exercise, and then again on Day Two. Previously, when I’d seen townie players melt down like that, I could imagine myself in their place, and understand why they might feel frustrated. With AZTeach, I couldn’t, and that made me suspicious.
On Day Two, storyteller said something that made me realize I didn’t really know why he’d feel so pressured as scum, either, since he wasn’t really that close to being dunked. My best guess is that he seriously over-estimated the danger he was in, as one of the vote leaders at the time, but it could just as easily be that he had a bad day at work and a fight with the wife.
I, too, don’t think that it’s likely that he felt frustrated by the pursuit of fellow scumbuddies. If the votes were from his mates, I think that would actually ease the pressure, as he could expect them to be removed before things got out of hand.
SHOOT. Always preview.
The second half of that post should look like this.
I don’t know that AZ voting for Zeriel does in fact clear Zeriel. The vote/unvote, upon reflection, does not neccesarily mean that Zeriel was town, it just means that AZ was voting. He seemed to be going for the “be so agressive no one will think you are scum” strategy. Maybe that was just him burning out. Maybe that is why AZ got so pissed. We accused him of voting/unvoting because he knew Zeriel was town. Maybe he got frustrated because he knew that we caught him, but for the wrong reasons. Idle did the same thing to me in M4 and I know it was very frustrating. Not drop out of the game frustrating, but frustrating.
My point is, there is too much other stuff going on with Zeriel to be able to clear him based on that single act.
Go back and look for yourself sach.
I think this is an interesting claim. Could I ask you to point out an example or two in which you previously expressed suspicion regarding someone for shoddy reasoning that didn’t immediately involve yourself?
NAF1138, I find your ongoing interest in Zeriel interesting. Could you explain why you believe that he knows your list contains only townies, and yet would be surprised to find that it contains only townies?
I thought I remembered **AZTeach **explaining why he was quitting. I looked back, and sure enough he made it pretty clear why he didn’t want to play anymore. He was upset at Autolycus, I think not only from his play style in this game but also from the last game (Pirates). I won’t go searching for the posts that led to his “meltdown”, but here’s his goodbye post: Post #845.
Hope this clears things up for you, sachertorte.
–FCOD
My first first-day vote for NAF1138 based on his either meaningless or scum-hiding list.
My final first-day vote for Mtgman based on his ridiculous interpretation of his tiff with storyteller as scum tells against storyteller.
My only second-day vote for fluiddruid based on her cavalier attitude towards dunking townies and lame vote for Malacandra followed by relative silence.
By contrast,
My middle first-day vote was based on gut feelings and a partial response to accusations by Kyrie nee Clockwork Jackal
My first third-day vote for Hal Briston based on vote analysis from the previous day.
My final third-day vote for Hockey in response to her analysis of me and in concurrence with Cookies’ analysis of Hockey.
My final fourth-day vote for Captain Klutz based on vote analysis.
I note my first vote for NAF involved some suspicion of me, but only as part of a group that does, in fact, include confirmed townies. If you don’t want to count that, fine with me–it’s ambiguous.
I am going to openly claim that I am very confused and I have no idea whom to vote for. So I am going to vote for a player who should get subbed out. I don’t want anymore subs. They make it difficult to remember who said what and when.
I am not convinced about either of the 2 main candidates today, NAF and Zeriel, however if I would have to choose between them I would vote for zeriel.
I am mostly going on the dreaded “gut feeling” as well as my stated belief that if you aren’t helping you are hurting and I will:
unvote malacandra
vote nava
I really don’t think this game can handle any more subs. A mod kill of nava would be fine by me as well.
Here’s the thing that bothers me about the ArizonaTeach thing–this passage:
That last line in particular is really, REALLY odd if we presume it’s coming from someone who’s melting down for non-strategic reasons. It’s a typical impassioned “I’m innocent and being railroaded here” defense–except for two factors.
Is Arizona a really good actor? Is he mad because he was being railroaded by fellow scum? What I’m not sure of is this: why would a scum leave the game because the townies were on the verge of getting lucky and scoring a first-day kill, and yet claim part of the reason for leaving was because “People have actually created reasons to come after me”.
The whole situation smells very bad to me, and I think any claims that it’s meaningless in the context of the game had best address why the in-game defense was so impassioned on a level comparable with the actual resignation.
Analyzing this might be borderline meta-gaming, but if it IS a scum tactic as many have suggested then it’s fighting meta- with meta- to an acceptable extent, I think.
I had a vague theory that Arizona already knew he had to sub out but manufactured a meltdown to make himself look more town-ish before he did, since it’s more likely for a townie to have a meltdown than scum. Yeah, I pulled it out of my ass. Not that it really matters at this point
I don’t see why Hockey and Mad’s votes for Zeriel increase your suspicion of him. They may both be town, but they are/were just as ignorant as the rest of us. Two confirmed townies voting does not a scum make.
FTR, I have not yet received a response from Nava. I will begin looking for a sub.
…sigh…
HazelNut, I agree with you on both points here. That is a good theory as to **AZTeach’s ** meltdown. I hadn’t thought of that before, but it makes good sense.
I voted for **Zeriel ** yesterDay because 1) **Mad’s ** plan (while out there) did make sense to me, and it seemed like something in character with what he would do. (It was out of character for him to be acting that way, which made me think that when he came clean with the plan that he was sincere.) 2) **Zeriel ** was one of the people that his plan seemed to “trap”, and 3) I’ve had my suspicions of **Zeriel ** all game. But you are right, about votes from 2 townies does not a scum make. There is a lot of evidence against both of them right now. I’m convinced that either **Zeriel ** or **Pleonast ** are scum, and perhaps both. Right now they seem to be falling on opposing sides. I’m still debating on which will get my vote toDay.
Since I’m seeing discussion about why ArizonaTeach left the game, I want to address this, because I feel like it’s not fair to him because he is a good player and a respectable man.
Prior to his subbing out, he and I discussed his reasons for leaving the game, and I had no reason to believe he was doing it for nefarious reasons. Where’s the fun in subbing out of a game on Day one, essentially not playing, and then claiming victory if the cult should win many Days later? I don’t believe he would do something like that.
OTOH, obviously, it would also be poor form to deliberately ruin the game for his replacement, or worse for everyone if he sold out his role. To put it plainly, he left the game for legitimate reasons. If you want to look into why he was frustration, that’s legitimate because emotions are a part of the game. However, I assure you there was no meta-gaming involved with his substitution; had there been meta-reasons for his subbing out, things would likely have been handled differently from my end.