[QUOTE=Hal Briston]
If he continuously blesses himself, he’s not.
[/QUOTE]
Well, yeah but she seemed to just be saying/assuming that the Priest could never be Night killed.
If I were the Priest, I’d certainly be self-protecting a few times…but might ultimately protect another if anything came to light.
[QUOTE=HazelNutCoffee]
By one shot, do you mean it can only be done once during the entire course of the game?
[/QUOTE]
Yes. If they attempt and succeed, they’ve got their convert; they will not be able to convert anyone else. Similarly, if they attempt and fail, they don’t get a “do over”; they will not have a convert.
[QUOTE=Hal Briston]
Very true, but the presence of the Avatar makes that a very risky play for the scum this time around. They may be less willing to join up on a “well, they’re gonna swing anyway” bandwagon.
[/QUOTE]
Good point, especially since even the Avatar isn’t aware of their own identity. I’m assuming that any cultists who vote unwittingly for the Avatar would incur the wrath of Sekham as much as any citizen would. (Although voting for one of your own seems like a last-ditch strategy at any rate.)
[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
In response to a rules query:
At the beginning of the game, the Apprentice starts with 50% accuracy. There are two ways the Apprentice can improve his power, through being discovered by the Oracle and gaining his tutelage or through the Oracle’s death. As an example, let’s say that the Oracle happens to investigate the Apprentice Tonight, the Tutelage bonus is immediate, and thus, the Apprentice’s investigation Tonight will have an accuracy of 60%. If they both survive the Night and the next Day, the Apprentices accuracy will then be 70%. It’ll look something like this.
Night Apprentice % Oracle Investigates
1 50% Player(1)
2 50% Player(2)
...
**i 60% Apprentice
i+1 70% Player(i+1)
i+2 80% Player(i+2)**
i+3 80% Player(i+3)
...
If the Oracle dies before he discovers the Apprentice, this power cannot be activated. If the Oracle dies during the training process, the Apprentice’s accuracy is frozen (he doesn’t unlearn).
Regardless of whether or not the tutelage is activated, when the Oracle dies, the Apprentice WILL receive the Oracle death bonus and it stacks with the Tutelage bonus. Thus, if the Apprentice was fully trained, he will acheive 100% accuracy on the night following the Oracle’s death (he has to find out he’s dead before he can loot his belongings).
I hope this clears things up a bit.
[/QUOTE]
That’s hilarious. You took what is arguably the most confusing/difficult role in the game(cowardly reporter may be worse) and made it even more difficult. Now when going through breadcrumbs from the Oracle and Apprentice we’ll have to guess and try to figure out if the Oracle ever investigated the Apprentice, and when it was(which is something even the Apprentice probably doesn’t know). Then we have to apply weighted percentages to each of the breadcrumbs left by the Apprentice based on when during the course of his/her tutelage(and the timing of the subsequent death of his/her teacher) each person was investigated. Barring a “I know I’m going out tonight and here’s who I investigated and when” from both roles I think we’re going to have a hell of a time teasing any useful information out of the Apprentice’s role at all.
Nicely done Blaster Master, the evil Dungeon Master in me salutes you.
Enjoy,
Steven
Wow, this thing is moving right along.
At this point, aside from my apparent early scum tell (at least according to Clockwork Jackal), who’s therefore receiving a halfhearted sorta-FOS from me) the only think I have to say is I agree with sachertorte–I can’t see any downsides to the town from the Oracle and Apprentice following that exact strategy. Except for the big one–if the Apprentice is in 16-20 him/herself, it’s suddenly a much less effective strategy. Can’t be helped, I suppose.
There’s also a strong argument for making sure that the Oracle and Apprentice are investigating their respective halves in random order, because otherwise if they’re going right down the list, the scum will be easily able to know when they’ve been confirmed. Or maybe that’s a good thing, making them nervous?
If we agree the Oracle and Apprentice should do this, it might behoove us to remember who’s up for investigation that particular previous night assuming it’s a good idea to do it in order.
Any other thoughts? Obviously, the hardest thing is for the Oracle and Apprentice to stay safe while delivering useful information, which is something I’m still not sure of the best way to accomplish.
[QUOTE=Mtgman]
That’s hilarious. You took what is arguably the most confusing/difficult role in the game(cowardly reporter may be worse) and made it even more difficult. Now when going through breadcrumbs from the Oracle and Apprentice we’ll have to guess and try to figure out if the Oracle ever investigated the Apprentice, and when it was(which is something even the Apprentice probably doesn’t know). Then we have to apply weighted percentages to each of the breadcrumbs left by the Apprentice based on when during the course of his/her tutelage(and the timing of the subsequent death of his/her teacher) each person was investigated. Barring a “I know I’m going out tonight and here’s who I investigated and when” from both roles I think we’re going to have a hell of a time teasing any useful information out of the Apprentice’s role at all.
Nicely done Blaster Master, the evil Dungeon Master in me salutes you.
Enjoy,
Steven
[/QUOTE]
I apologize… I did want it to be a LITTLE bit convoluted, but not THAT convoluted. :smack:
You’re right, I neglected to mention an important point that, while my intention, should not have been left simply to implication. The Apprentice WILL know when he’s been investigated (how can he be under his tutelage and not know it).
[QUOTE=Mtgman]
(cowardly reporter may be worse)
[/quote]
Nothing to do with this game at all, but I want to know…what is the cowardly reporter? I haven’t heard of this one.
[quote]
Nicely done Blaster Master, the evil Dungeon Master in me salutes you.[/qutoe]
Seconded. Beat cop has always had a special place in my heart, I especially enjoy this variant.
(btw, I think my next game is going to be a bastard mod game, if anyone is interested)
And an immediate followup to say holy cow, Mtgman is right. The Apprentice is going to be hard to really usefully interpret results from.
[QUOTE=HazelNutCoffee]
Good point, especially since even the Avatar isn’t aware of their own identity. I’m assuming that any cultists who vote unwittingly for the Avatar would incur the wrath of Sekham as much as any citizen would. (Although voting for one of your own seems like a last-ditch strategy at any rate.)
[/QUOTE]
What I forgot to mention or make clear…scum will vote for other scum, but they do not necessarily leave their votes on their compatriots. Sometimes they do, but you are right…the presence of the Avatar complicates strategy for them.
[QUOTE=Zeriel]
And an immediate followup to say holy cow, Mtgman is right. The Apprentice is going to be hard to really usefully interpret results from.
[/QUOTE]
Perhaps the Apprentice makes it a point to investigate his targets twice (at least until he gets his level up into a decent percentage)? Yeah, slower…but the additional accuracy might be worth it.
[QUOTE=HazelNutCoffee]
(Although voting for one of your own seems like a last-ditch strategy at any rate.)
[/QUOTE]
(Almost missed this one..)
Not always. In M3, one of the identifiers was the fact that while there were still multiple scum, every single time one of them was lynched, all living scum were part of the voting block. Every scum that was lynched had every other member of team scum voting for them.
Doubt you’ll see that this time around.
[QUOTE=Zeriel]
Wow, this thing is moving right along.
At this point, aside from my apparent early scum tell (at least according to Clockwork Jackal), who’s therefore receiving a halfhearted sorta-FOS from me) the only think I have to say is I agree with sachertorte–I can’t see any downsides to the town from the Oracle and Apprentice following that exact strategy. Except for the big one–if the Apprentice is in 16-20 him/herself, it’s suddenly a much less effective strategy. Can’t be helped, I suppose.
[/quote]
Damnit, I knew there was something about that tactic that was bugging me.
Upon further reflection, I’m not sure how helpful having seperate lists for the Oracle and the Apprentice would actually be. After all the Apprentice’s findings will always be uncertain until after the Oracle dies. Seems like there would be much more of an advantage in the Oracle finding the Apprentice ASAP, which is never going to happen in the event they are given seperate lists and the Apprentice ends up not being on the Oracle’s list.
Seems to me like this would put both of them in quite some danger, since everyone would be aware of who was being investigated that night. The scum would keep a sharp eye out for those who pointed FOS at the correct person after the night said person was investigated, which would considerably endanger the Oracle, and to a lesser extent, the Apprentice.
That’s fine, but it still doesn’t help us much. The only way it changes the scenario is we now don’t need a prescient post from the Oracle saying when he investigated the Apprentice. To get a good reading on what the Apprentice’s bread crumbs mean we still need to either deduce the timelines of when each investigated who. So one prescient post from the Apprentice(detailing the timeline) is all we need now. 
Info on the Cowardly Reporter
Enjoy,
Steven
[QUOTE=Mtgman]
Info on the Cowardly Reporter
Enjoy,
Steven
[/QUOTE]
Thanks! My place of employment seems to have decided that mafiascum.net is no longer allowed to be viewed. That is new in the last month or so :mad: . I will take a look when I get home.
[QUOTE=NAF1138]
Thanks! My place of employment seems to have decided that mafiascum.net is no longer allowed to be viewed. That is new in the last month or so :mad: . I will take a look when I get home.
[/QUOTE]
Ouch…that sucks (still, better mafiascum.net then the SDMB!). Well, if you’re impatient:
Damnit! It’s time for me to leave work! Oh well…back again tomorrow…
See what this damn game does?!
[QUOTE=Queuing]
Re Random Voting/Unvoting/FOSing:
I don’t really see the harm in random voting the first day. That said I really don’t understand why someone would random vote only to later recant said vote in the very same real life day. What is that going to accomplish? The stated defense for random voting is getting people to talk as they are afraid that they will die. So why unvote so quickly?
[/QUOTE]
Because it’s TRADITIONAL!
Sheesh…
[QUOTE=NAF1138]
Thanks! My place of employment seems to have decided that mafiascum.net is no longer allowed to be viewed. That is new in the last month or so :mad: . I will take a look when I get home.
[/QUOTE]
No problem. There’s a Cowardly Reporter role on that site I linked to on my boards. That werewiki site?
Or just google “werewiki”.
Thanks to all who explained my thinking in stating the Priest is not night killable. Yes, technically he is, but there really isn’t any reason to protect someone other than himself. The only exception from this is possibly if the Oracle roleclaims and therefore needs protection. In that case I can see the Priest dying to protect the Oracle. But that’s the only case I see the Priest dying. Sorry for being confusing.
[QUOTE=Zeriel]
There’s also a strong argument for making sure that the Oracle and Apprentice are investigating their respective halves in random order, because otherwise if they’re going right down the list, the scum will be easily able to know when they’ve been confirmed. Or maybe that’s a good thing, making them nervous?
[/QUOTE]
My intention was simply to establish disjoint sets for investigations. Order would be up to the Oracle and Apprentice. A set investigation list is very very bad. Scum would simply kill townies they know were investigated, thereby eliminating the usefulness of the Oracle. Part of the oracle’s power is discovering town alignment without scum knowing who!
Yes, there is the possibility (50%) that the Apprentice would be in the incorrect set for the Oracle to investigate. On the other hand, if the Apprentice is in the Oracle’s set, the probability of getting hit doubles 
. So mathematically, its a wash.
Personally, I wouldn’t put too much credence into the paper Mtgman cites. The analysis was for plain games with only vanilla townies and vanilla mafia. The analysis provided there doesn’t apply to this game.
[QUOTE=Mtgman]
As far as our investigative arm(the Oracle and his/her Apprentice(s)) are concerned, the Non-Believers are a superset of the Cultists. So rooting them all out should be their priority. Now the question for the town becomes, how do we sort the Cultists from the Non-Believers. This is an important exercise for three major reasons. Firstly, the Cultists are the ones trying to kill us. They should be the targets. Secondly, the Non-Believers count towards the town’s side in the equation to determine a Cultist victory or not. Killing Non-Believers(as opposed to just those who investigate as Non-Believers, which includes most Cultists) advances the Cultist’s win condition. Thirdly, while it is theoretically possible for the Non-Believers to take a victory away from the Believers, it’s pretty damn unlikely. Let’s not repeat the mistake of going for the Mason win in MIII by focusing on unlikely events when the most realistic threat is still out there.
(snip)
[/QUOTE]
Nope. The Non-Believers are a non-factor. There are 3 (guaranteed) Non-Believers as of now, whereas there are 7 (guaranteed) Believers as of now. Unless there are a rash of Believer killings/dunkings/lynchings (and you better believe there will be), they are in a known minority right now.
They don’t know each other.
They can’t disclose their identities fearlessly, since they’ll be Crusader fodder right now.
And, like you say, there is no way to root them out (unless they are about to face The Dunk). So let’s forget about them (right now). They’re a non-factor to town.