Regarding the bandwagon: I’m less concerned about the time ordering and whatnot than whether the voters had already expressed concern before the bandwagon started. As soon as I get a moment today to not work and yes play, that’s what I hope to pick through. Because, had I found Mtgman suspicious, I probably would have voted at the end as well. But, I also would have already declared my suspicion, which some of the voters had, and I would trust them a little more for it. (Wool over my eyes? Perhaps.)
For the post counts: I agree that thery are of limited use. With the active Night posting and the disparity between Day posting value (few long valuable posts versus many short inconsequential ones), the post count would need some work to be useful. For me, I’m just keeping track of who has voiced opinions and who hasn’t (much like NAF’s original list of people he didn’t notice), and if someone has managed to post a lot, but I don’t have any idea what they think about anyone, then I can give 'em a look come vote time.
Actually, while it’s a bit earlier in the Day than I would anticipate usually voting, I wouldn’t mind hearing discussion on my end-of-day vote from yesterday, so vote SnakesCatLady,
an active poster whose thoughts I know nothing about.
Well, but they can’t very well vote for all of their own all the time – at least, I don’t think they can very easily.
That’s a good point. However, ArizonaTeach is higher on my radar because 1) he seemed to be actively garnering votes at the greatest rate (three new votes in the two pages before Hal Briston voted for Mtgman); and 2) his posting style struck me as touchy and overly defensive. This isn’t definitive by any means, and maybe you and fluiddruid are right, but it’s all I’ve got at the moment.
First, I remove all my outstanding FOSs. NAF has noted that I’m all over the place, and that doesn’t help me any, never mind anybody else.
Second, as I recall, ArizonaTeach was here for all of Day 1, and was subbed out overNight. So Fretful Porpentine and Kyrie Eleison have valid points, that Kat has picked up a role with a case history.
So I went back and looked at AZTeach’s posts yesterDay. E was already melting down by #590, which was very early in the Day. That’s an overreaction of some kind. I concur with Fretful and Kyrie that Kat has a situation on her hands. FOS Kat (vice ArizonaTeach).
Third, I also thought about Malacandra’s famous point: “If Mtgman turns out to be scum that proves I’m not.” As we all know, Mtgman turned out clean. Malacandra’s position was highly visible, and given the reality seems to me to be a bad position for a Cultist to take. Therefore, it seems to me that Malacandra did not know whether Mtgman was a Cultist, making it likely that Malacandra is clean. Someone PLEASE find the holes in my reasoning!
Really? I didn’t see that at all yesterDay. I think it was more people were just baffled by your and zuma’s exchange and then your vote. And then I saw more people actually finding him suspicious and voting for him rather than you…so I don’t know where you got the sense that people were implying this about you. At least the first Day. Now toDay you seem to have done that, what, with when zuma was the one found dead, you sort of flip-flopped.
I wouldn’t say “nothing”…that’s stretching it pretty far, actually. Your actions (odd) and what you’ve said today, upon zuma’s demise, coupled with the things you said yesterday doesn’t really strike me as something town would equally say as much as scum. I feel that scum would be more APT to say the things you did.
This is true and I can relate. But I don’t feel that anyone doesn’t have “good reason” stemming from yesterday, with you, and continuing onto comments made today, by you.
Snipped.
I know this wasn’t directed at me but I thought I’d give my two cents. I agree with this for the most part. With Clockwork Jackal, at least for me, some of the things she said tripped my meter. Thus I thought holding suspicion on Kyrie seemed understandable.
With AZTeach, though, I never really saw anything there to begin with, at least not from a personal standpoint. And with his getting hot under the collar and pretty emotional based on the game, it further leads me to lean more toward he was annoyed town rather than trying-to-stay-alive Cult. I also speak from my own experience in recent past games.
So therefore Kat, at least to me, doesn’t have any pre-suspicion right now. But that’s really hard to put a gauge on since you’re ALL suspicious to me in some fashion.
I dunno, but I left expecting to have at least three new pages tacked on. Instead, there’s only one new one. I think it’ll slow down and continue to do so over time. I think everyone’s usually hepped up on getting in initial posts in the beginning but sort of calms down as the game goes on (well, some, haha)
This is also one of the reasons I try to multi-quote as I do in all games. It saves posts to sort through if I replied to them all one at a time.
Yeah, that all does make sense and I see where you’re coming from better. Like I had posted when Day Two started, I found either C or D of equal chance…but in any case, I don’t think it matters too much right now. Either C or D (which seems to be what most people would agree are the two likely ones) both end up with the same solution. Namely = okay…
If anything, I still see this as suspicious (but again, also based on my earlier suspicions of you). If you were scum and voting for someone who had a bandwagon already formed or going against them, would you make sure your vote was one of the ones that really counted, or just lunk your vote in with those because “at the time [they’re] … already ahead” a certain number of votes?
And I do see that you were suspicious of him anyway, and that’s really how you play the game so nothing there… I’m just saying that despite that, it still doesn’t make you look any better either, and to someone who has already had slight suspicions of you, it festers. After all, you could say all of this and claim it’s true and yet, if you were scum, it’d give you an excellent excuse to throw your vote in and then use what you’re saying as a reason.
To be fair, he did play in the last game, number four, and he got visibly angry and upset in that one a few times too even though he was a power role for the good side.
It all depends what you mean. If you mean other discussion boards to talk about other things other than this one, then yes (Norom, IMDB, RoadFood). If you mean a board, I assume, set up for scum when it’s Night, then no.
Snipped.
While I’m flattered, I would actually advise you (and anyone) not to base trust just on how analytical they are and well their posts read. As I’ve said before, I think the most dangerous type of scum would be one who posts a lot and whose posts are very, very full of typing. And yeah, that includes myself. I dunno, I just don’t think trust comes easy in this game, if at all.
There are people to me who are very shady looking and ones who have yet to trip my wires…and that’s just about it. Granted there also are, admittantly, people I FEEL MAY be town, but what good is saying it out loud, in a post, unless one is sure? All it possibly does is open the door to, if you’re wrong, that person knowing they have someone who they could try to weasel.
So yeah, just some thoughts about that.
And finally, storyteller, since I obviously am one who thinks that number two is the most likely, what you say makes sense…although I can only speak for myself.
So in the end, my top suspected is actually a tie. Pleonast, who fits that role of the number two case fairly well, and Mal for all of the reasons stated above.
Rounding it out, I’m still suspicious of Clockwork/Kyrie some and sachetorte a little more, but as more and more time goes by, it’s waning.
And I have no idea what to think about Pasta or NAF as of late, who were both high up yesterday on my radar but who’ve both seemingly not only taken a turn in their posts a little but also haven’t posted much since.
Oh, and I’m a male.
I like storyteller’s point that a pile on benefits ArizonaTeach/Kat, Autolycus, and ClockworkJackal/Kyrie Eleison, because that at least makes a bit more sense. However, I think the Mtgman/storyteller argument was most salient at the time and would explain a shifting vote to **Mtgman **over other candidates.
Also of note: **DiggitCamara **shifted his vote from **Autolycus **to Mtgman (with a bit of obfuscation through a vote for **MadTheSwine **in between. I think that was an honest mistake as the correction was fairly immediate, but who knows?).
**Zeriel **shifted his vote from Kyrie Eleison to Mtgman.
These shifts fit in with storyteller’s words even more. However, for the sake of thoroughness, I point out that the Autolycus vote and Kyrie Eleison votes were losing steam anyway and DiggitCamara and Zeriel may have been shifting votes in response to that apathy. Its all a little bit too neat anyway; but something to keep in mind.
Other voting peculiarities
A list of single vote getters:
Autolycus (1) - ArizonaTeach
DiggitCamara (1) - Queuing
Hal Briston (1) - zuma
NAF1138 (1) - FlyingCowOfDoom
Nava (1) - Fretful Porpentine
Queuing (1) - sachertorte
SnakesCatLady (1) - Pasta
My theory? This is a nice place for scum to hide. Some will hide in bandwagons, no doubt. But I think a throw-away vote makes sense for some scum.
I think most of these votes were explained sufficiently when made. The one that sticks out to me was Fretful Porpentine’s vote for **Nava **which occurred very late in the day (post 875) and shifted her vote from **Autolycus **to Nava. With the reasoning that the vote is a poke at Nava. A poke with four-and-a-half hours before the end of the day to someone who hadn’t posted at all to the thread. Justified? possibly during the day, but at the end of it? I don’t think so. To me this looks like scum tossing a vote somewhere to go unnoticed. This vote meant nothing.
Good point (except for the fact that it was zuma, not Mtgman). But the reasoning holds regardless.
I think the argument now has moved onto the observation that after **zuma **turned out to be town, **Malacandra **said something to the effect of see, that shows I’m town too, which is trying to have it both ways.
You know, this is something that’s been on my mind for a very long time. Not just in this game either.
I always see people say this. “Oh they’d never do [blah] because it’d be so obvious” or “I doubt they’d be that obvious/stupid” and like statements.
But what makes you think that scum wouldn’t someday USE this against the other side? Seems to me this game is all about doing the things that the other team LEAST EXPECTS you to do. Trying to trick them and throw them off course and all of that in any tricky and clever way possible.
Well, one way, that I see, that would be AMAZINGLY CLEVER is for the scum, some game, to actually DO all of the most obvious things!
Seriously, think about it for a minute. Everyone always automatically disregards the “most obvious” thing that they think scum would do. Wouldn’t that, then, in a huge sense, become the MOST UNEXPECTED and thus cleverest scum could do?
I just know some game town is going to lose because we’re all so convinced that the evil side would never do things so “stupid” or “obvious”. I just really hope it’s not this one.
So anyway, as to what you’re saying HazelNutCoffee, I also don’t think (unfortunatly) that every single Cult member would jump onto a bandwagon…but I DO think it’s pretty likely that at least one did. It’s something to at least consider right along with “well maybe none did because it’d be so obvious”. There can be a gray area, too. It doesn’t have to be “none did because that’d be so obvious” or “all of them did beause they’d know we wouldn’t expect that.” I think the answer lies more in the middle and has a more distinct possibility of being the case…thus: Maybe one or two did. It’s certainly very plausible.
One other thing we should keep in mind re: mtgman and bandwagon is that the scum had no time to talk yet. They all had to act independently with only the knowledge of their fellow team mates. This basically means there could be no true cohesive game plan for the scum to follow. I think a day one bandwagon will much more likely contain scum then later bandwagons. While scum have more knowledge that doesn’t necessarily make for better players. They could have just as easily made a mistake as any believer may have. If we want to look for scum in the mtgman wagon then IMO we look at who voted for him first, and who voted for him last.
I think there will have been 1 scum who voted for mtgman. I don’t know how we find that person. I think one of the best ways would be to look who was against his game play to begin with, and who wasn’t. Then of those people with clear sides who voted for him and who didn’t? If we find someone who breaks from this pattern we may have a scum.
Full disclosure: I was against his style of play, this was more obvious in my objections to sachertorte. I did not vote for him. I was away remember :). No idea if this was helpful or not :).
You expressed my feelings about that much better than I did.
I have had trouble getting on the board today, so I have been going over my notes. I also thought it was odd that Fretful Porpentine would vote for Nava so near to the end of the day. If it was intended to get a response from her, why wait so late in the day? I can see more reason to be suspicious of Autolycus, who was unvoted to make the vote on Nava.
Others have brought up the ArizonaTeach/Kat situation. My sense of “fair play” doesn’t want to punish Kat for mistakes made by the player she subbed in for, but the suspicion is there regardless.
[fluff]
I will not be posting again until Thursday morning at the earliest. I hope everyone has a happy and safe 4th of July.
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I’m not saying that a first-Day bandwagon will not contain scum. I’m saying that it is unlikely (but not impossible, I’ll admit) that such a bandwagon would have been led by them. I also think (and I’ve already stated this) that because the scum have no group strategy yet, it is more likely that most of them will try not to stick out too much. Giving off obvious scum tells can be a strategy, obviously, but I feel like it’s a dangerous one for scum to try on the first Day.
Millit the Frail will take up post after post in the Forbidden Thread laughing her ass off at me. I’m picking up the mantle she left in M3 – the dreaded Google Spreadsheet. <cue dramatic “dun dun duuuuuun!!”>
As of now, I’ve only finished Day One. I’ll be leaving work in a bit, and I won’t be back until Thursday, so it’ll most likely remain that way for the time being. Just giving everyone a Bookmark Alert.
By the by, thanks for the template, Millit! And man, I hope I didn’t make any major blunders in there…
In just a few minutes, I’m leaving for Independence Day festivities. I’m not sure if I’ll have much time to read & post for the next 24 hours or so – tonight is fireworks, and tomorrow, we’re having family and friends over for a BBQ that’s likely to go all day. Have a happy holiday, those of you in the states.
In my book it gets far more interesting once we know the identity of one (or several) of the people who were in actual danger of being lynched.
During M3 we had several, widely different, scenarios enacted:
Day One, where there was an almost accidental lynching, preceded by a vote swing which was initiated by scum (fluiddruid) and enthusiastically promoted by a citizen (dnooman). If I remember it correctly, there were some scum on the lynching side, some were to the side
Day Three, where we had an actual voteswing created by scum to save scum
Day Four, where citizens and masons (among them myself and Cookies) managed to kill another citizen (Lightnin’) all by ourselves
So: unless we have actual proof that one of the vote leaders at the time are Cultists, any voteswing and/or innocent lynching might have any number of reasons. And all kinds of participation by Cultists or lack thereof.
…I will still be here and same with tomorrow. : / I have no life (nor family or friends to spend the fourth with). Heh.
(Note: I don’t mind so don’t take it as a pity thing. I just thought it’d be amusing to add that after a bunch of “Oh I won’t be here for awhile” posts.)
So I haven’t gotten a chance to get back to my Idle Thoughts style posting. I keept getting interupted and losing my train of thought. I have caught up on reading the thread though.
I don’t have anything concrete to announce however.
The most I have right now is that SCL is pinging me hard with her failiur to take a stand on anything.
But other than that, my brain is just fried. I had to do all my work for most of the week yesterday and today, and on top of that I was already a bit behind because I spent almost a whole day last week in meetings.
Work won’t be like this for too much longer. Really, I usually have so much free time I don’t know what to do with myself.
I won’t be around on the 4th, I will be giving my brain a much deserved rest.
I will be back on Thursday with both guns blazing.
Do you even read my posts? I posted earlier that I was suspicious of Fretful Porpentine and Kat. I haven’t voted vet, but I will before the day is over.
My PC problems are mostly resolved so now I’ll be able to participate more. Just some small stuff for now, I’ll try something more substantive tomorrow.
Post #902
This looks like a not entirely subtle way of saying “I’m not doing anything during Nights”. Hmmm
I just thought it’d be amusing to add that after a bunch of “Oh I won’t be here for awhile” posts.)