Re: Being online or not. I’m pretty sure that I am invisible just like Inner. But when I am playing a game, I tend to leave the page up in my browser 24/7. I don’t know if that would show me online 24/7 or if you have to actively be doing something to show up as online. I think drawing inferences from when someone is online is unlikely to find scum.
Re: 3 person endgame. Not voting first may be the correct play, but voting first may get you enough town cred to make up for it.
I understand that town cred wins games for wolves, but it also seems dangerous. That town cred comes at a price.
How common is it for a wolf to sacrifice a fellow unsuspected wolf in order to gain town credibility?
Reasonably common; nobody is “unsuspected” in this game. Wolves will totally make cases on each other. Their goal is to apply enough pressure to each other to appear town, but not enough to actually lead to a lynch. Sometimes they screw that up, and then they’ll happily bus (that is, hop on the lynch of) a wolf that has significant town pressure. They’ll do whatever it takes to appear town, which is their golden ticket to the end of the game. If wolves as a rule never attacked other wolves, or were reluctant to engage or discuss their wolvish brethren, it’d be trivial to detect them.
I’m feeling comfortable with the lynch of JB. His most recent post has the air of “defeatist wolf” to me. If I’m town, the correct answer to his post is “both.” You need to defend yourself AND leave a last will and testament. If I’m scum and I think my lynch is sure, I’m not gonna put that much effort into the game.
Agreed - and Town (including me!) often have a blind spot about this. However, as a Wolf I’ve found that you can play *too *Townie. I went through a game happily sniping at other Wolves and once, when one of us got “seen” attempting the Night Kill, absolutely leading the charge. That was all fine and good and I got a bunch of Townie cred. But had the the game lasted one Night longer, I would have been in real trouble because I had so much Town cred that the only logical thing for the Wolves to do was NK me. Short of Mason/Detective confirmation, by the time everyone is saying “I’m positive X must be Town given everything they’ve done” then X has no business surviving.
The optimal -and incredibly difficult, probably impossible - strategy for Wolves is to play Townie enough to avoid being lynched but suspicious enough to draw a few votes (from Town) and thus not appear too clean.
I have to agree. My early read on Johnny Bravo was that he was town, but his reaction to getting lynched is way too calm and evasive. If he is Town he should be mad and worried about Town ending up at lynch or lose tomorrow. Also he should be actively looking for an alternative. Easier said than done, but he should have something to say.
Stanislaus, are you talking about De’endee by chance? Earlier in the thread, I said your performance as scum in that game was the most impressive I’ve ever seen, and I meant that.
Also, had I been a player, I would have lynched your ass for still being alive at the end game. 
We need another De’endee game!
Maybe after Dante’s game, if there’s interest? My De’endee games involve some strange mechanics, so a few more standard-style games might not be a bad idea first!
Speaking of my(Dante’s) game - I have a list of 19 characters ready and most of their roles/abilities. I chose 19 because that was, I think, the number of players in the current game. I can adjust to more or less depending on signups.
We will see how signups go.
While we wait for developments, can a more experienced player answer me a question. Has **septimus ** claimed earlier on Day 1 and thus we had lynched someone else, should he have, as the Guardian, protected himself on the first night, or someone else?
I’ve run some simulations on that, and come to the conclusion that, for a hidden Doctor, it is slightly better to self-protect than to protect someone else. On the one hand, the Doctor knows he’s Town, but doesn’t know whether anyone else is, and if he picks a Scum to protect, there’s no chance that he’ll stop the kill. On the other hand, though, if the Doctor protects someone else, there’s a chance that he’ll get information out of it: If he stops the kill, he’ll then know that the person he targeted must have been Town, and that’s valuable information.
But that’s when the Doctor is hidden. For an outed Doctor, it’s classic WiFoM: The Scum don’t have to guess who he is, so he would be a more likely target… except that that’s obvious, and the Scum know he’s likely to self-protect, so they don’t want to waste their kill by targeting him. The optimum strategy for the Doctor, then, in such a situation, is to choose randomly whether to self-protect or not. But I’m not entirely sure what probability he should use. My guess is that the optimum is a slightly over 50% chance of self-protecting, given that that’s the slightly favored move for a hidden Doc, but that’s just a guess.
Newbie Biotop’s Sincere but Almost Assuredly Misguided Odds on the Remaining Player’s Wolfhood:
Cygnus: 9%
Professor Pepperwinkle: 11%
Sangfroid: 15%
Precambrianmollusc: 20%
Jimmy Chitwood: 30%
Nonsuch: 50%
Johnny Bravo: 65%
Anyone else care to make a guess on the probability of the identities of our final two wolves at this point in the game?
Having seen Johnny B’s last post in the game thread, I’d be inclined to vote for him myself. He’s not voted and not left a last will and testament.
Given the closeness to the end of the game I might go back and reread his posts, but it would take a lot of Town-aligned pointers to make me rethink at this point.
If Bravo does flip as Town, then I suspect Cygnus to be a wolf. From his most recent post:
If Bravo is Scum, as everyone (including Cygnus) seems to think, then looking for interactions between PCM and Nonsuch can’t reveal anything useful, since they can’t be Scum together. It almost looks like Cygnus expects to see Bravo flip Town. And that vote post also feels halfhearted, like you’d see from a wolf who doesn’t care which Townie gets lynched.
But if **Cygnus ** is wolf, why post anything at this point other than a vote for **Bravo **. It doesn’t appear he’s on anyone’s radar if **Bravo ** turns up town. Why not just sit back and win?
What’s with players stating who they will vote for tomorrow? Is that a thing now? It seems like a really bad idea to me. On top of that, they are voting for the other player in play Today. Also, I think they are voting for yesterday’s runner up too! Do they really think scum is going to bus scum that hard? I get that scum will bus other scum, but there is a limit to that or it becomes self defeating.
Just newbie babble, but:
If I am town and I might die tonight, I want to give my imput for after I am gone. Hell, if I was wolf I would do it too if I was about to get lynched.
I don’t see why it is a bad idea to post next Day Lynch ideas this late in the game
Whoo Hooo town!!!
Probably my worst showing ever in a Mafia game.
I was, in actuality, traveling and not really able to pay much attention for the first 10 or so RL days of the game. By the time I settled in, it was clear that town was doing a pretty good job of eating each other up, and there wasn’t much reason for me to get involved.
Then the Sario lynch happened. I think it’s fairly obvious now that this was an unexpected turn of events for the remaining wolves. I am not good at going back and doing analysis of a game already in progress, so I never really recovered from that.
Biotop: you played marvelously for a newbie. Job very well done.
I did both those things.