Mafia Watch-Along Thread - NO SPOILERS! [FORBIDDEN TO LIVE PLAYERS]

Thread Games
141

I’m starting to think that EOD on Monday is probably not a great idea, especially in the summer. I’m generally not online that much on the weekends to begin with, but in the summer I would expect even fewer people online.

On the other hand, we’ve wound up with multiple F’ed up end of days that were both clusterfucks and highly amusing. So we have that.

That last lynch has got to hurt for the wolves. While they get a very strong indicator of who the First Mason* is, they also wound up confirming TexCat and strongly confirming sangfroid. There is absolutely no reason to lynch sangfroid now. The Alpha Wolf clearly was gunning to break the tie and have sangfroid be the lynch from tie. So Town has quite a few confirms. Not bad at all.

And what was Town doing letting the lynch be decided by 3 votes?! Is that right? Even if it was 4, there are 4 scum left!

And what were scum doing letting the Alpha Wolf get lynched when they had plenty of opportunity to lynch someone else! The choice of sangfroid for the tie puts the other near-tie candidates in the strongly possible scum pile. I’m thinking plumpudding. If plumpudding is Town, then wolves absolutely join that bandwagon. They do it throughout the day and plumpudding dies and ThingFish gets the ‘blame’. But that isn’t what happened. TexCat was swayed by the lack of counter wagon, but I think that was due mostly to scared wolves. They wanted an alternative, but the alternative that cropped up (Sario) was also a Wolf. It wasn’t until sangfroid popped up as a possibility (proposed by TexCat?**, confirmed Town) that they had a good counter to Wolf-Sario and likely wolf-plumpudding.

That’s a ton of information from that lynch:
TexCat Town confirmed
sangfroid - strongly Town
plumpudding - strongly Scum, the thing that bothers me is why not precambrianmollusk who had 2 votes while sangfroid only had one? I guess the fact that TexCat was voting sangfroid was super tempting, plus the whole sangfroid begging Town to off TexCat after he was dead (not like it would have happened, but you know). Grrr. I guess that I also have to think…
precambrianmollusk - possible scum, but I don’t feel strongly about it.
Prof P - lean Town
BioTop - lean Town
Cygnus - lean Town

Things just got interesting again!

*It is possible that the First Mason chose a random tie-break, but I think that is unlikely. TexCat is clearly not the First Mason given Chronos’s interaction with her. If the lynch was random, it is only meaningful if plumpudding is the first mason, which I consider unlikely. First mason is clearly one of Prof P, BioTop, Cygnus. Based on interactions with Mahaloth and Chronos, I’m guessing Wolves should be able to figure it out completely. For example, I think it unlikely Prof P is the First Mason. If he were a Mason, I would have expected him to follow Chronos on the TexCat wagon and not switch to septimus on Day One. Ouch, One in Two possibilities. Probably doesn’t matter though since all three have Town leans now anyways and are unlikely to be lynched anytime soon.

** sangfroid was a terrible choice for lynch. All the fretting about alpha wolf is super duper townie. What was TexCat thinking? I guess she was annoyed by sangfroid’s irrational alpha fretting, but I would have expected TexCat to avoid that trap. Well she’s Town now.

142

I’m rethinking plumpudding; it is possible that plum pudding’s rabid attack on TexCat was prompted by Chronos’s belief that TexCat was scum.
How likely is that? Probably not likely. I’m overthinking this.

I just realized. If the wolf plan had worked and the Alpha broke the tie, then TexCat would have been on the voting side with the Alpha Wolf. It would have made TexCat look like the Alpha Wolf.

143

Ironically, TexCat had the best case against Sario, yet led the sangfroid bandwagon. Sario was more concerned about how he looked rather than being right or wrong.

Annoyingly, Cygnus does the same exact thing (worrying about how he looks) in the post that votes for Sario the puts Sario into the lead. Tough game to figure out!

144

Your giving me far too much credit. I was simply trying to avoid the noose, but didn’t think out all of the possibilities.

145

I was referring to this post by TexCat:

Anyway, Sario, please be careful about what you state in this thread. This thread is both Forbidden and Unspoiled. You are no longer forbidden, but you are NOT unspoiled. :smiley:
Hang out and chat us up, but be careful, you know more than we do!

146

Yeah, I’m even having to be careful what I say here, since I’m still a little bit spoiled. In a sense, it’ll be a relief once the First Mason gets killed, and I’ll again be unspoiled.

And I seem to recall a clean Scum sweep in the first Mafia game I played here, based on The Scarlet Letter. There was a hostile third-party faction that got wiped out, but IIRC the killing faction went completely untouched (even though I got this || close to nabbing several of them).

There used to be a wiki (maintained by Idle Thoughts, I think) that kept statistics on all of our games, but I can’t find it any more.

147

Last I heard the wiki was, to put it technically, fucked up beyond all recognition. If you want a wiki, someone will have to start from scratch in terms of building it up.

148

Why is Professor P voting for Sangfroid?
What the hell is going on?
Why is Professor P suddenly having a backbone?

Gah!

That plus Prof P’s self-congratulatory, the three of us must be Town, plus his terrible Day One vote switching makes me want him dead… even though he’s more likely Town than not.

Gah!

149

Holy crap. My head is going to explode.

Did plumpudding just agree with sangfroid that TexCat getting nightkilled is a mark against sangfroid while simultaneously ignoring the fact that sangfroid’s point is that TexCat was killed because BOTH plumpudding and sangfroid have to answer for their attacks on TexCat?

:smack:

Why would anyone think that just because they attacked TexCat they are scum? Quite the opposite* actually.
Townies don’t know that TexCat is Town. Scum DO.
Plus lots of people on this thread thought TexCat was acting shifty too.
And it should be obvious that TexCat was killed because she was confirmed Town.

  • Although I do think plumpudding is scum and should die.
150

:o And when I saw your claim, Septimus, my first thought was, “Yay! He really is scum, but he should have fake claimed a little earlier.”

I kept waiting for you to ask if this was the third game in a row where I was scum and went after you. When you didn’t, I decided this game you had to be scum. :o

I’m not voting Septimus next game, no matter what!

151

My thinking was that he was using that as an excuse for not having any opinions about anyone, an excuse for being paralyzed into inaction.

What are the chances that PMollusc and Diggit are both scum and bussing each other?

152

Interesting.
Historical note: a long way back in a game someone (the serial killer) killed a scum based on noticing scum calling a nightkill a lynching. It could have been just luck, but it makes me wonder if scum are predisposed to mistakenly call a night kill a lynch.

153

I came in to point out the exact same thing. If I were playing, and if we had a suspicious eye smiley, I’d have posted about thirty of them in response to his post.

154

The kill of TexCat is not at all mysterious. The Scum had a choice between going after a 100% confirmed town TexCat, or they could have gone Mason-hunting. They have a pretty good lead on who the Mason is, but they can’t be certain. If the Doctor were still alive, they’d have to guess which target the Doctor would be protecting, but without that to consider, the 100% confirmed Townie is the obvious move.

And the voting yesterDay doesn’t prove anyone to be Townie. It might move some people lower on the list of suspects, but Scum can and do get other Scum lynched. Remember, if even one single solitary wolf can convince the Town that he’s a Townie, then the wolves will win the game. Once you realize that, it becomes worthwhile for a wolf to do absolutely anything needed to get Townies to believe that, even lynching the alpha.

155

Lynching for information? I realize how important information is, but I never thought this was a good idea.

156

Well, it probably is a good idea, but it’s difficult to say how good, because it’s usually identical to “lynch whoever looks scummiest” anyway. In general, the amount of information yielded by someone’s death will be maximized if the prior probability of that person being Scum is exactly 50%. Usually, most players will have a prior probability of less than 50%, so the person closest to 50% will be the scummiest person. Prior probabilities of Scumminess will tend to increase as the game goes on, but then again, as the game goes on, the relative value of information vs. correct lynches also decreases, so it’s rare for lynching anyone other than the mos likely Scum to be the correct move.

157

My current guesses for scum: Nonsuch, Johnny Bravo, and ?Diggit

Probably just as wrong as my previous guesses of Septimus, Plum and Sangfroid.

158

I’m just waiting to see if 1st Mason is who I think it is.

159

And now I’m waiting to see who you think it is.

160

Prof P. I’ve suspected him of it since Day 1.