Make some predictions on the Democratic race

[RTFirefly]

@WillFarnaby

Bankruptcy law sounds too obscure to put a dent in Biden’s non-ideological vote.

He was anointed by Saint Obama after this so he must not be all too bad.

“Mr. Biden, your support of this 2005 bankruptcy law shows you are beholden to corporate interests.”

“My time with President Obama taught me many things, first…yadda yadda yadda”
Crony corporatism forgotten.

Yeah, you’re right - that law didn’t affect any actual people. Nevermind. :rolleyes:

[FlikTheBlue]

@Wesley_Clark

The appeal of Biden is that he has name recognition, and because he is a white male he doesn’t alienate a lot of swing voters who aren’t comfortable voting for a non-white or female candidate (like it or not). Plus he has some credibility with high school educated whites.

But he has his negatives. The bankruptcy law, Iraq war, Anita Hill.

However I don’t know how well he would govern. It really doesn’t matter I guess, the legislature is where actual laws are written. The president just signs the law.

Would America really be any different if Bernie won in 2020 instead of Biden? It seems like the end results would pretty much be the same no matter which one won.

I think there would be a difference. Bernie would be a lot more likely to insist on far left policy, which Congress is not going to pass no matter how well the Democrats do in 2020. Biden would be a lot more likely to compromise with moderate Democrats to get things done, even of those things are slightly left leaning moderate policies rather than a far left wish list. It’s actually kind of similar to how Republicans might have gotten more done by this point had someone like Jeb won than they have with Trump.

[That_Don_Guy]

@adaher

1. Who will be the nominee? Yes, of course it’s early, but think of it like trying to predict a Super Bowl winner in the preseason. Just do it.

2. Which candidate will exceed expectations the most? There’s often someone who does better than expected in a multi candidate field.

3. Which candidate will pull a Rick Perry and go from first tier to out of the race much earlier than expected?

4. Which top tier candidate is the most likely to just decide not to run? Obviously Harris and Warren are in, but Booker, Biden, Beto, and Bernie, the killer Bs are still on the fence.

5. Is there any candidate in the field that you wouldn’t vote for if they won the nomination? Okay, not a prediction, but still an interesting question.

1. My gut says Bernie Sanders stays in it to win it - and after what happened in 2016, the college students and recent graduates will come out in force to vote for him; between that and the new “superdelegates can’t vote on the first ballot” rule, that should be enough to get him the nomination.

2. Julian Castro, especially if he gets support from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

3. Kamala Harris - nobody really knows who she is. I have a feeling somebody is going to point out that, as Attorney General of California, she pretty much refused to defend the state’s own Constitution (when Proposition 8 was declared illegal, she didn’t appeal to the Supreme Court).
   “Who knew who Bill Clinton or Barack Obama were?” They both gave keynote speeches at Democratic National Conventions.
   “Who knew who Jimmy Carter was?” Exactly…

4. Who are the “top tier candidates”? I was going to say that Elizabeth Warren will drop out when Bernie Sanders makes it clear he’s running, as they don’t want to divide the progressive delegates, but the question asks who won’t enter the race at all, and she already has an “exploratory committee.”

5. To be honest, if Trump gets the Republican nomination, I can’t say for sure that any viable Democratic nominee would be off of my list.

[Ancient_Erudite]

1. Who will be the nominee? Yes, of course it’s early, but think of it like trying to predict a Super Bowl winner in the preseason. Just do it.

2. Which candidate will exceed expectations the most? There’s often someone who does better than expected in a multi candidate field.

3. Which candidate will pull a Rick Perry and go from first tier to out of the race much earlier than expected?

4. Which top tier candidate is the most likely to just decide not to run? Obviously Harris and Warren are in, but Booker, Biden, Beto, and Bernie, the killer Bs are still on the fence.

5. Is there any candidate in the field that you wouldn’t vote for if they won the nomination? Okay, not a prediction, but still an interesting question.

My answers:

1 - Joe Biden. He’s the establishment guy and has Obama’s backing, plus the DNC’s backing. Joe’s too old, and IMO will not beat Donald Trump but if I had to back a horse in this very large field lacking a true favorite, he would be it.

2 ) Mike Bloomberg or Mitch Landrieu. I think Bloomberg is best equipped to beat Trump. I think Landrieu’s personality will shine on television.

3 ) Warren I think will fizzle out early. She’s just won’t play in the midwest and can’t take a political punch.

4 ) None of the above, everyone is going to at least dip their toes into the pool.

5 ) Robert Francis A.K.A Beto, Warren and Harris.

[Ancient_Erudite]

@Mr.Duality

Predicting the 2024 race:

Ocasio-Cortez will run for President and win.

You can get 1,000 to 1 on that. Dem’s are already telling Cortez to tone it down. She’s not progressive, she’s a big time solicists views and a compete lack of understanding on how things work.

[Thing_Fish]

1. Kamala Harris. She can appeal to youth and minorities, and hasn’t burned bridges with either the Hillary or Bernie wings of the party.

2. Stacy Abrams, if she runs. She could compete with Harris for the minority vote and draw the more diversity-minded progressives away from Bernie. Also, Julian Castro.

3. Joe Biden. He doesn’t appeal to the Bernie crowd, so he has to try to rebuild the Hillary coalition of minorities and moderates. But I think he’ll find that it’s one thing to get minorities to choose you over Bernie Sanders and a whole other thing to get them to choose you over actual minorities. Right now most polls have he and Sanders tied for the lead with approximately 25% each. My guess is Biden’s support dries up as people, particularly minorities, get more informed about other candidates, and that Bernie keeps all those of us who would vote for him now, doesn’t pick up anyone else, and finishes with 25%.

Also, Elizabeth Warren is not going anywhere, probably. The “elderly white progressive from New England” lane is pretty well occupied. There aren’t more than a handful of voters who like Sanders’ politics but not Sanders himself. Other than that, who does she appeal to? It’s a very bad sign for her that she’s currently in third place in the polls in Massachusetts. If the voters who know her best aren’t enthusiastic…

4. Of the “killer B’s”, I would be amazed at this point if Biden, Sanders or Booker didn’t run. Beto probably will too; he could run for Senate again in 2020, but if he couldn’t win in 2018 against Ted Cruz, when is he going to win in Texas? (that’s a criticism of Texas, not of Beto). Another loss won’t help his credibility, so if he wants to run, the time is probably now. I certainly would if I were him, I think he’d have an excellent shot.

5. Oh Hell No. Not for any conceivably realistic definition of “the field”. If it’s, like, Tulsi Gabbard or Oprah, I might have to get drunk before entering the voting booth, but I’d do it.

[Thing_Fish]

However…

The Democratic primaries are mostly proportional representation, which almost guarantees a brokered convention if there are more than two serious candidates. This sure seems more likely than not this time around. This scenario would favor candidates who might have won a relatively small share of delegates, but who are at least acceptable to most of the Party. So that could be a realistic path to victory for Biden or Warren.

[Thing_Fish]

I’m not at all certain that the nominee will be Kamala Harris specifically, but it will probably be a minority, probably under 60, and definitely a person who can position themselves in that ideological sweet spot midway between Clinton and Sanders.

[Gyrate]

@Ancient_Erudite

You can get 1,000 to 1 on that. Dem’s are already telling Cortez to tone it down. She’s not progressive, **she’s a big time solicists views **and a compete lack of understanding on how things work.

(bolding mine)

She transgresses the rules of grammar? She doesn’t believe that anything exists outside her own mind?

[foolsguinea]

What’s wrong with being a solicitor?

[That_Don_Guy]

@Thing_Fish

However…

The Democratic primaries are mostly proportional representation, which almost guarantees a brokered convention if there are more than two serious candidates. This sure seems more likely than not this time around. This scenario would favor candidates who might have won a relatively small share of delegates, but who are at least acceptable to most of the Party. So that could be a realistic path to victory for Biden or Warren.

“Mostly”? The Democratic Party rules require (a) that all primaries are proportional representation, with a 15% threshhold, and (b) something like 3/4 of a state’s delegates be decided at Congressional district level.

Also remember that, if it does get to a second ballot, the superdelegates now get to vote.

[DinoR]

I think Klobuchar has a real chance to overperform. Partly that’s because nobody’s talking much about her now so the bar is really low.

Right now the field is mostly filling in on the leftmost/progressive portion of the party. She’s center-left and from the midwest where the blue wall crumbled so dramatically in 2016. (Her state, Minnesota still went for Clinton but by a small and smaller than expected margin.) Right now Biden’s her major likely competition That IS major competition. Still, he’s got some negative perceptions inside the party and she’s not an old, white guy.

Minnesota’s primary might be March 3rd as well. That’s the default if both parties don’t agree to a different date in March. Potentially that keeps her in the race even if Feb isn’t going great. Scheduling could have a big role on whether she fades and resigns before getting that delegate haul.

[Mr.Duality]

@Ancient_Erudite

You can get 1,000 to 1 on that. Dem’s are already telling Cortez to tone it down. She’s not progressive, she’s a big time solicists views and a compete lack of understanding on how things work.

I’d take that. Care to formalize a wager?

[foolsguinea]

You’ll bankrupt him!

[DSeid]

1. Sherrod Brown for nominee. (Although I have Harris as close.)
2. Harder on the over-perform choice because it depends whose expectations … I’m going with Brown here too using current polling as the proxy for expectations and getting the nom would be an over-perform for sure.
3. I think Warren will be the flame out although she will have a solid start. I see her losing steam to younger candidates on Super Tuesday. She actually is authentic with a real life story that should resonate, but she will be trying so hard to show how authentic she is that she will come off as fake and packaged. Gillibrand won’t last long but I don’t see her as high enough up the pile to count.
4. Sanders is a won’t run. The question is if he tries to use his support to anoint someone who has promised various policy initiatives. I could see him promoting Warren for example.
5. There is no one on the list that I would not strongly support over Trump or, in the case of Trump not running, over anyone that the current GOP would put up.

[septimus]

@Lumpy

Hillary Clinton will push hard to be renominated.
This will horrify many Democrats who think that would be suicidal for the party.
It will get ugly.

People underestimate the extant to which many politicians run from a sense of duty. Hillary had a long career of public service (as First Lady she was more involved in policy than any First Lady since Eleanor Roosevelt) and ran again in 2016 out of obligation to her country. The same sense of duty will compel her not to run in 2020. HTH.

My answers:

1. Nominee? Biden or Klobuchar

2. Outperform? Klobuchar, Brown, Castro

3. Underperform? Harris

4. Doesn’t run? Beto, Bernie

5. Would vote for Pence, Trump or Ryan instead of? Was this a joke question?