Do you go by gut/heart feeling?
Do you analyze by head?
Do you write out long lists of pros and cons on paper?
Do you consult a lot of family and friends and then go by consensus majority?
etc. etc.
According to ancient legend, the Persians, pre-muslim, had a custom where if you had to make a major life changing decision, you should meditate on the question once when sober, and once when drunk. Don’t do it unless you come to the same conclusion both times.
Generally all of the above, in rotation. And as a final clincher a coin toss; when it’s in the air and you’re really hoping it lands Heads, you know that’s your choice.
For me it’s typically a combination of researching and analyzing the situation and then going with my gut, and it’s has rarely steered me wrong. It allows me to make tough decisions relatively quickly.
My brother, on the other hand, will churn and and churn for months trying to decide what to do for fear of making a decision too quickly or with too little information.
Intuition is one of my superpowers, and it helps me make decisions fairly quickly, right or wrong, and then move on. I’ve learned over the years to trust on my intuition and not overthink things.
Mrs. Cardigan frequently suffers from analysis paralysis in making big decisions, and is quick to enlist my aid in helping her to make the decision. Problem is, she usually then displays a most remarkable lack of faith in my capacity to help make that decision and frequently attacks the course of action I suggest with everything she’s got. Stepping outside myself, I can understand in the abstract that perhaps she needs a foil to argue something out, but why the hell can’t she argue it out in her head, instead doing it out loud and establishing an adversarial relationship by openly questioning the judgment of her spouse?
Basically I do research and analyze it and apply logic. I don’t disregard my gut, but I don’t entirely trust it either; it’s ruled by emotional considerations as much as anything else, and those aren’t really reliable when making large decisions. It’s got a vote in the decision making process, but nothing like a majority.
As a strategy, I tend to try and get as much information as I can. Most of the decision-making issues I’ve faced in my life have been due to insufficient information to make the best decision possible. So while I may know that the Honda Ridgeline looks like a great pickup for me on paper, I’ll still want to test drive it, talk to owners, and look up reliability, parts availability, and whether or not it has fiddly VW-style maintenance needs and mechanic training. Once I know all that for all the vehicles I’m considering, I’ll be in a position to know which one is the best one for me.
I often ask opinions of friends and family- not to prove myself right, but to get a different perspective on things. What they consider important may not be the same things I do, and it’s always good to see a purchase like that from another angle.
Procrastinate. They frequently resolve themselves.
Gut feelings are evaluations, and I take them seriously and interpret them. Interpretation involves the head. So it’s a process that involves both.
Depending on what it is I may read reviews, ask other people that I trust, ponder it, weigh the pros and cons, a lot of times I go with my heart.
My husband on the other hand will jump at a decision and then have regrets. Especially buyer’s remorse. Any time he makes a purchase over $100 he second guesses it. We needed a new recliner which I had mentioned months ago. At that time he said that we really didn’t need it. He’s the one that sits in it 98% of the time, so I didn’t push it. It was still useable, just looked a bit worn. Suddenly a couple of weeks ago he decided it was time for a new recliner. So we went to a furniture store and did some test “driving”. We found one we both liked and I chose the color. I don’t think we were even out of the parking lot when he said, “I kind of wish we hadn’t bought it”! I just said, “too bad”. Drives me up the wall.
I think writing it out is only necessary if there really are a lot of pros and cons. But it really is necessary to fully and honestly understand the pros, cons, and uncertainties/risks of each alternative in order to make a fully informed decision. Once you understand for each alternative what’s certain, probable, improbable, and impossible, then you can start thinking about what things are most/least important to you, and how you might feel about any given out come. That last bit can sometimes be challenging:
Consulting others who have been in a similar situation can be useful, in part because these people can tell you how they feel now about their own outcome, and how that may be different from their feelings about that potential outcome before they actually made the choice. It may be that the consequences of their choice were more severe than they imagined, or they feel worse about it than they imagined they would (e.g. a kid who crashes while riding a 90-MPH wheelie on his new motorcycle, and they never thought about their $1000 deductible, their medical bill, the pain and inconvenience of a prolonged recovery, or their PTSD, and their regret and embarrassment over it all).
Good point about asking around. When I do my “research”, that involves both Googling and talking to people who have experience I can benefit from. I don’t spend weeks tracking down a dozen people, but instead contact a few friends or relatives I trust.
BTW, I didn’t mean to imply that I simply go with my gut, but my gut tends to be right more times than not, and if after researching and analyzing I still can’t decide, my gut gets the deciding vote, for better or worse.
Generally, I like to sleep on a big decision. I try to concentrate on the issue at hand while laying in bed. Often, but not always, my subconscious mind comes up with a suitable solution.
Generally with my head, plus research if appropriate. I start with “what’s the worst that could happen if I do X” and proceed to do the same with as many choices as I am aware of.
I am fortunate not to have faced many life-changing decisions, but one that sticks in my mind is when I met my husband, after three failed relationships and two years of therapy. He was completely unlike anyone I had ever known, and he was frankly in difficult straits, having been thrown out of his boyfriend’s place and not having enough ready money to get a place on his own. Red flags all over the place, but I determined that the worst that could happen if we moved in together (my place was too tiny for 2) would be that we would break up after a few months, and that I could handle that. The worst thing that could happen if we didn’t would be that I would lose out on possibly the best relationship of my life. That was 32 years ago, so it worked for me that time.
I didn’t know that one of my techniques had such a complex label as “affective forecasting”.
A related thing I do, based on what someone once said to me long ago, is to ask myself “And then what?”
This is one of the keys to effective executive decision-making. The notion that a decision is so important that you need more information often leads to fatal procrastination that can result in a worse outcome than any timely decision.* In everyday life, buying or selling a house is a good example of when this is often important.
* I believe Shakespeare even wrote a play about this. 
Yeah, there’s a bit of ‘perfect is the enemy of good enough’ in this. If you operate under the premise that the decision must be made only when it’s the perfect decision, you’ll often miss the window, and either nothing will happen or bad things will happen or the default things will happen, all of which are probably worse than what would have been the result of a less than perfect decision that was still an actual, explicit decision.
I usually think about it a while and then go with my gut. When my son was 17 and trying to decide which of two colleges to go to, he finally flipped a coin. Not liking the result, he decided to make it 2 out of 3. Still not liking the outcome, he suddenly realized that of course he had a preference; otherwise why could he dislike the result of a random flip. So he decided on that basis. I think he made the right choice.
Pros and cons. Logic works best.
Very seriously most big decisions at this point involve both myself and my wife. I more often than not pick a choice pretty quickly and don’t overanalyze. My wife is another process and as a long time married man I will usually just go along …
For myself a major principle is defaulting to the option that leaves the most future options open.
Logic and long lists don’t help me much because the unknowns usually swamp all the known factors. Just pick a path and make it the right choice.
I always ask myself, WWJD . . . and then I do whatever I want.