Mayweather Vs. McGregor

The Game Room
#1

So it looks like Floyd Mayweather Jr. will be fighting Connor McGregor later this year.

Most people think it is a dead certainty that that Mayweather wins. I think him winning is the most probable outcome but there are some good reasons for betting on McGregor.

  1. Punching Power - Mayweather has never been considered heavy-handed. His wins tend to come on points more than stoppage.

McGregor, on the other hand, has real and meaningful, demonstrated power.
Also, McGregor is used to getting hit with essentially bare knuckles and he will be facing a guy with little (comparative) power wearing pillows.

  1. Styles - Mayweather is a highly defensive fighter who does not leave a lot of openings and tends to fight from distance.

McGregor relies heavily on timing and precision strikes (“timing beats speed, precision beats power”.) When there is an opening he is a master of seeing it and exploiting it.
Connor is also good at avoiding getting hit (the first Diaz fight aside) and doing it in a way that forces openings in his opponents.

Which brings us to…

  1. Angles - There will be no angles that Mayweather moves to / throws from that McGregor hasn’t seen a billion times. You can’t get to the level that he has in MMA without having a good grasp of boxing.

But MMA boxing is different than pure boxing and I think that Connor can make use of the difference and hit Mayweather from places that Mayweather has never seen.

  1. Cardio - This is an interesting one. McGregor is used to fighting in 5 minute blocks so 3 minutes should be no problem for him. But he isn’t used to going the distance and has gassed in the late rounds, and even when he has gone to the judges that is only a 25 minute fight (29 if you include breaks between rounds) this will be, potentially, 36 (or 47) minutes.

McGregor is known for hunting down his own weaknesses and fixing them - but this might be a bridge too far.

There is no doubt that Mayweather can do a full 12.

  1. Fight Prep - I don’t know enough about Mayweather to comment on his fight prep but I do know that McGregor is surgical in his analysis of opponents’ habits and weaknesses.

He studies countless hours of tape, analyzes his opponent, looks for places that he will be at a disadvantage and works tirelessly to tighten up his game.

I doubt there is anyone in combat sports that is as fanatical about studying and prepping for an upcoming fight than McGregor.

  1. Intangibles (pressure) - Connor is expected to lose. The only pressure is his pride (and he has a boatload of that.) If he loses, no big deal. If he wins then he has done the impossible twice (three times if you count consistently one-upping Dana White.)

On the other hand Mayweather has Marianas Trench levels of pressure. If he wins no big deal - he is supposed to win. If he loses then he loses the “0” to a fighter making his pro-debut.

In fact, if McGregor loses but puts on a good, competitive fight then, in a sense, he still wins and Mayweather loses. If Mayweather does less than utterly dominate the fight then McGregor will have scored a meaningful victory in every way except his record.

In many ways Mayweather’s legacy is on the line. McGregor has none of that.

(Over?)confidence - Mayweather has every reason to believe that this will be a cakewalk if almost every commentator / analyst is to be believed.

But most of those people deal exclusively (or nearly so) with boxing and know little about MMA and may not recognize some of the things McGregor brings.

To be fair most MMA analysts think McGregor will lose too - but most don’t think it will be the blowout that the boxing world does.

Connor McGregor is by far the most supremely confident fighter there is. Give him a full (or even partial) camp and he will square off with King Kong convinced that he can win. Not that he WILL win but that he has as good a shot at leaving with the win as Kong.

You can’t get into his head but he can certainly get into yours. He will make you doubt your own ability while convincing you of his.

All in all I’d say that Mayweather wins 85 times out of 100 but it should still be a mind-blowing fight.

#2

I think it’s a dead certainty.

#3

Why?

#4

One of the best boxers of all time versus a man who has never boxed professionally?

Don’t get me wrong, I want McGregor to win, I just think he’s grossly outmatched here.

#5

Though I follow both, I’m a far bigger MMA than boxing fan. I follow MMA semi-obsessively, down to overseas and regional promotions full of athletes who will never make it to the UFC.

And I think McGregor gets humiliated by Mayweather in a 12 round fight, short of a truly bizarre fluke. I think he would get pieced up, might go entire rounds without landing a punch, and could even get stopped late due to exhaustion or accumulation of damage.

McGregor’s only advantage is being a much larger, more heavily muscled man. Unfortunately, Mayweather has fought much larger men before, who were legitimate Top 10 boxers to boot, and embarrassed them. I’m thinking of Canelo here, who is big enough that he spent a couple years being accused of being scared to go up to his “real” weight of 160 and fight Golovkin.

Beyond size, McGregor has nothing going for him. His lack of pro or even amateur boxing experience aside, he’s an MMA fighter who depends heavily on his kicking offense to set up his punches. I think he would flail miserably against one of the three or four greatest defensive fighters ever.

#6

What makes Mayweather good aside from practicing a lot with his girlfriend?

#7

Mayweather’s a loathsome human being, but everyone who knows about boxing say he’s a genuine world-class talent.

#8

I’m not disputing. I’m wondering about what specifically makes him good. I’m not familiar enough with him to know why he’s good.

#9

Obligatory link.:smiley:

#10

McGregor has a punchers’ chance. Never say a guy who can knock people the f** out has no chance.

The problem for McGregor is that he’s a non-boxer up against the most talented boxer this world has ever seen.

Unanimous decision for Mayweather, 90% chance. 10% chance that Mayweather is old and his reflexes are reduced enough that McGregor catches him and floors him.

Let’s also be clear about something else though: McGregor would kill Mayweather in any other combat sport.

#11

I think McGregor has a pretty good shot. I suspect McGregor is going to be pretty good defensively. I also suspect that he will come from different angles than Mayweather is used to due to a) his MMA experience and b) lack of boxing experience. This could be both good and bad for McGregor.

I will probably put some money on McGregor, mainly because the payoff will be big. I suspect I will lose the cash but …

Slee

#12

Mayweather’s obviously the favorite for all of the obvious reasons, especially as it goes into the later rounds where empty swings could cause fatigue for McGregor. But McGregor still has a puncher’s chance, particularly in the early stages of the fight. One thing that would concern me if I were in his camp is McGregor’s raw power. I don’t care how shifty Money Mayweather is: one big shot and the fight is over.

And it’s not like this is a freak show where you have, say, an ex basketball or football player deciding to make a transition to boxing and fighting a professional boxer after a few fights. McGregor is a professional fighter - he’s a different kind of fighter but in terms of his spatial awareness and timing, he’s not completely helpless in a boxing ring.

Another factor to consider: When is the last time McGregor knocked someone out? It’s been a while. I don’t think he’s going to KO McGregor. He might make him look silly in the second half of the fight, and it might get cringe-worthy to watch Floyd land five or six punches to McGregor’s occasional one, but I don’t see McGregor being able to KO a guy who is naturally bigger and stronger than he is when he can’t even KO people his own size.

If I had to bet money I’d bet on Money Mayweather to survive McGregor’s early fury and to take him to school in later rounds. Mayweather will probably embarrass McGregor late in the fight, but the first few rounds could be pretty interesting, and it wouldn’t be a total shock if McGregor somehow landed a one-punch KO.

#13

Wouldn’t Connor’s lack of experience be his biggest asset?

Not exactly the same thing, but it’s like a professional poker player going against an amateur. The amateur’s bluffing strategy and what he does will be so crazy and nonsensical that the pro will have no idea what’s real and what’s not.

What’s stopping Connor from hearing the bell ring and sprinting towards Mayweather full-speed with flying punches and doing literally the exact opposite of what a pro boxer would do? There’s no way Mayweather can train for that. He’s so used to boxing boxers that when a fighter comes into the ring he’s so confused at what to do that he just plays into Connor’s hand?

#14

I’m going to hazard a guess that many of the McGregors in that paragraph should be Mayweathers.

#15

LOL! You hazarded right. Bad idea to post before 1st cup of coffee.

#16

I fully expect Connor to do some roughhousing and I don’t think Floyd would be completely surprised by it either. But I’m assuming that the referee would also step in at some point if it turned into a wrestling match. There’s a difference between swarming someone and shoving them around and clinching, which is part of the sport. Professional boxers learn how to clinch, and they do it artfully. It’s not as easy as it looks on TV.

But I do expect McGregor to get in close to Mayweather. A good solid uppercut followed with a quick combination would probably make him think about it a bit more as the fight continues.

#17

I’m a casual MMA fan and a boxing (especially Mayweather) Hater.

I could see them doing it. And not because there is any contest of skills to achieve. The skill on display here is: turning a lot of eyeballs into a lot of money, and they will cooperate to that end. Mayweather wins by 12-round snoozefest, as ever.

I can’t quite grasp the McGregor hype. I’ve only seen a few of his fights (including losing to Diaz) and nothing struck me as extraordinary, for MMA itself, let alone something that makes him special as a boxer. I feel like we’re only talking about this fight because he happens to be the right size person for Money to make money with. And Floyd is getting old. Ego, draw, training habits, a few good MMA wins, boxing training (a given for all MMA fighters) … plenty of guys have all that.

Floyd should fight Jones. In jail.

#18

Mayweather can hit hard when he wants to or needs to. McGregor hits harder with momentum against MMA fighters who don’t know how to avoid it, it would be a serious mistake for him to try that against Floyd.

McGregor has seen nothing like the moves that Mayweather has and will not be able to hit Mayweather from any new angles. MMA fighters are not as good as boxers at punching, McGregor has a serious problem in this respect. Boxing allows only one form offense, forehand punching, with only a few possible variations. Boxers exist because they are better at this than anyone else. MMA fighters just don’t have that kind of offensive and defensive talent in the limited scope of boxing.

McGregor’s only hope is lucky punch or that Floyd has lost too much to age and inactivity. The latter is very unlikely to result in a loss for Floyd because of the level of his skill, even if his timing is off, even if he can’t pull the trigger when he needs to, the boxing ring is his domain and McGregor can only look good at all from a very aggressive all out attack that Floyd will be expecting and knows how to deal with.

Odds are McGregor tires out and gets knocked out or Mayweather wins a lopsided decision over the distance.

#19

Is he really that much larger? A quick Google search puts McGregor at 5’9"/154, and Mayweather at 5’8"/151. I know weights can fluctuate but I’m not seeing that much of a difference.

#20

I’ve never watched MMA or McGregor but it is worth considering that some of the world’s best fighters have tried and failed to figure out a way to nullify Mayweather and use either power or guile to find a stoppage punch or wear him down to submission. These are people specialising in that sport and those tactics. McGregor has done neither so I’m not expecting him to find anything that Mayweather has not seen before.
Sure there is always the possibility of a rogue punch from any reasonably sized fighter and the ability to read, avoid and ride that punch diminishes with age but that is the only way I see Mayweather losing and even that is longer than 30-1.
My guess? Mayweather to play with him and tire him out for 5 rounds to justify the purse and then put him down in the 6th.