So it looks like Floyd Mayweather Jr. will be fighting Connor McGregor later this year.
Most people think it is a dead certainty that that Mayweather wins. I think him winning is the most probable outcome but there are some good reasons for betting on McGregor.
- Punching Power - Mayweather has never been considered heavy-handed. His wins tend to come on points more than stoppage.
McGregor, on the other hand, has real and meaningful, demonstrated power.
Also, McGregor is used to getting hit with essentially bare knuckles and he will be facing a guy with little (comparative) power wearing pillows.
- Styles - Mayweather is a highly defensive fighter who does not leave a lot of openings and tends to fight from distance.
McGregor relies heavily on timing and precision strikes (“timing beats speed, precision beats power”.) When there is an opening he is a master of seeing it and exploiting it.
Connor is also good at avoiding getting hit (the first Diaz fight aside) and doing it in a way that forces openings in his opponents.
Which brings us to…
- Angles - There will be no angles that Mayweather moves to / throws from that McGregor hasn’t seen a billion times. You can’t get to the level that he has in MMA without having a good grasp of boxing.
But MMA boxing is different than pure boxing and I think that Connor can make use of the difference and hit Mayweather from places that Mayweather has never seen.
- Cardio - This is an interesting one. McGregor is used to fighting in 5 minute blocks so 3 minutes should be no problem for him. But he isn’t used to going the distance and has gassed in the late rounds, and even when he has gone to the judges that is only a 25 minute fight (29 if you include breaks between rounds) this will be, potentially, 36 (or 47) minutes.
McGregor is known for hunting down his own weaknesses and fixing them - but this might be a bridge too far.
There is no doubt that Mayweather can do a full 12.
- Fight Prep - I don’t know enough about Mayweather to comment on his fight prep but I do know that McGregor is surgical in his analysis of opponents’ habits and weaknesses.
He studies countless hours of tape, analyzes his opponent, looks for places that he will be at a disadvantage and works tirelessly to tighten up his game.
I doubt there is anyone in combat sports that is as fanatical about studying and prepping for an upcoming fight than McGregor.
- Intangibles (pressure) - Connor is expected to lose. The only pressure is his pride (and he has a boatload of that.) If he loses, no big deal. If he wins then he has done the impossible twice (three times if you count consistently one-upping Dana White.)
On the other hand Mayweather has Marianas Trench levels of pressure. If he wins no big deal - he is supposed to win. If he loses then he loses the “0” to a fighter making his pro-debut.
In fact, if McGregor loses but puts on a good, competitive fight then, in a sense, he still wins and Mayweather loses. If Mayweather does less than utterly dominate the fight then McGregor will have scored a meaningful victory in every way except his record.
In many ways Mayweather’s legacy is on the line. McGregor has none of that.
(Over?)confidence - Mayweather has every reason to believe that this will be a cakewalk if almost every commentator / analyst is to be believed.
But most of those people deal exclusively (or nearly so) with boxing and know little about MMA and may not recognize some of the things McGregor brings.
To be fair most MMA analysts think McGregor will lose too - but most don’t think it will be the blowout that the boxing world does.
Connor McGregor is by far the most supremely confident fighter there is. Give him a full (or even partial) camp and he will square off with King Kong convinced that he can win. Not that he WILL win but that he has as good a shot at leaving with the win as Kong.
You can’t get into his head but he can certainly get into yours. He will make you doubt your own ability while convincing you of his.
All in all I’d say that Mayweather wins 85 times out of 100 but it should still be a mind-blowing fight.