As to the chance of a blow-out … looking at http://electoral-vote.com/ he’d hit 383 if he wins where he is currently ahead and picks up those states they say are barely red - IN, NC, and MO. Very possible. The over 400 requires believing that the polling in some state is wrong on who is a likely voter … so my broken record - it can happen with a large Texas Hispanic and youth vote turn-out and some base disgust with McCain there. A surprise in Texas in addition to the rest would get him to 417.
Of course I’ll be satified with 269 and thrilled with 270. Just win.
I’m genuinely stunned that ND, NC, and MO are all in play now. And given reports from Georgia, I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama carries that state, too.
I was going to post just that, my god, Missouri, i would never have thought it possible, if Obama wins Missouri the Republicans will not know what truck just hit them.
OK, I just need to stand up for my home state here. I see a fair amount of “Missouri going for Obama? No way.” around here, and I think it’s overstated. Since 1904, MO has voted with the winner in every Presidential election but one (1956). So, Missouri, while undeniably conservative in many ways, is not a lock for the GOP. In addition, the urban areas lean heavily Democractic. For example, St. Louis hasn’t elected a Republican mayor since 1943, and KC has only elected one since 1930. Turnout in those cities and the near suburbs could be a huge factor this year. St. Louis County comprises something like 20% of the population of the state. Yes, some of St. Louis County is quite conservative, but it’s definitely not a solid GOP base. In 2004, I believe the vote in the county was pretty evenly split.
So, it would not surprise me terribly to see MO in Obama’s column.
I just caught some Fox News while at the gym…if we can take their coverage as a McCain game plan, it’s going to be Ayers & ACORN for the next 3 weeks. This genuinely worries me a bit…it may just chip away at a few undecideds. A point here & there over 3 weeks, could add up.
I’m generally worried, period. A local columnist (who still believes in the Bradley Effect) advised all Obama backers, before they start getting excited, to subtract 7 points from every poll they see.
On the other hand…I believe the polls are understating the Cell Phone & New Voter factors, which may cancel out the Bradley Effect.
So then I go to fivethirtyeight.com and feel better…but what if it’s just an echo chamber? Can we trust Nate?
So now Gallup is reporting likely voter results, but two ways: with the traditional screen that uses whether or not they have voted in a Presidential election before; and without. A difference of 3 points nationally: Obama +7 with; +10 without.
Some locales have more new voters than others and will have this effect larger than others. Just sayin’ is all.
Looks like you are right, i must confess that i was confused (I never lived in the U.S.) i had the idea of Missouri as being a southern Red State, now i see in RCP that it voted for Bush in 2000 only by 3 points, and looking at the map i see it is just next to Illinois.
I must have confused it with Missisipi :smack:, sorry.
Tru dat. It’s got a better track record as a Presidential bellweather than any other state, AFAICT.
Still, considering that McCain’s led in Missouri for most of the year, seeing SUSA put Obama ahead by 8 is pretty damned impressive.
The 383 includes North Dakota. That’s based on a Minnesota State poll, but I don’t know how good they are. And given that it’s North Dakota, I’d definitely like to see some corroboration on that.
For now, I think I’ll stick that max of 381 EVs, assuming Obama wins the popular vote by <10%. If he wins by more, the sky’s the limit.
Well it’s the only poll of ND after the Palin peak and pall, the only one since the economic meltdown and McCain’s disastrous ploy to save the day. The only polls that put ND over 10 points were during that brief period of Sept 8 - 16 when McCain was ahead nationally. He was then up in ND by 13 or 14. And only then, only at the peak of Palin and the convention bounce. Other than that ND has surprisingly been close. So yeah, it is believable. And so is picking one in that one Nebraska district. And heck Montana is just a 6 point stretch for another 3 electoral votes. So 387 if he runs the table without the way far long shots coming through. (Yeah, I’m not giving up on Texas even though Nate at 538 currently gives Obama an only 3% chance of winning there.) Maybe Georgia would flip on a real good day? That would put it over 400 too (on top of the others.)
While I’m far from predicting such a thing, fivethirtyeight has an Obama blowout (375+ EVs) at 53.67%. If I were putting money on such things, I’d go against it, just because it would be a bet I really wouldn’t mind losing. Incidentally, there’s a 0.09% chance of a McCain blowout still.
Yes. Also, there are a LOT of Obama supporters in SLC. A tiny dot of blue in a sea of red.
So, I’ve posted a few times that I think McCain is a rotten person and his whole “this will be a respectful campain” is nothing but a pretty transparent political ploy–not a genuine change of heart or anything resembling basic human decency. I posted this because I believe that McCain doesn’t have a trace of decency left in his body.
